Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11938 tópicos neste fórum
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Key takeaways The Japanese yen has been the weakest major currency over the past month, with USD/JPY climbing nearly 3%—outpacing the US Dollar Index’s 0.9% gain—amid political pressure for looser monetary policy.USD/JPY’s surge above 155.00 has heightened FX-intervention risk, prompting verbal warnings from Japan’s Finance Minister over rapid, one-sided yen depreciation.A high-stakes meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Prime Minister Takaichi later today could trigger short-term volatility, with technical signals pointing to rising odds of a minor bearish reversal unless USD/JPY breaks above 155.30. In the past month (based on a rolling basis), the Japanese yen h…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Japanese yen continues to gain intraday strength. Despite mixed views expressed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its recently released Summary of Opinions, investors appear convinced that the central bank is leaning toward a path of monetary policy normalization. This perception is helping to offset weak domestic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales, lending additional support to the yen. Rising geopolitical tensions and fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown also contribute to the yen's demand as a safe-haven currency. The Bank of Japan's tone remains notably hawkish, standing in contrast to growing market expectations that the U.S. Federal R…
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The intraday drop below the round level of 156.00 and the 100-hour and 200-hour simple moving averages (SMA) confirms the possibility of further declines amid negative oscillators on the hourly chart. However, on the daily chart, the oscillators remain in positive territory, suggesting that a further decline may attract buyers near the round level of 155.00. It is also important to note that the relative strength index is close to neutral, indicating weakness among bulls. Further selling below the psychological level of 155.00 would shift the short-term trend in favor of the USD/JPY bears. On the other hand, sustained momentum above the round level of 156.00 could lift sp…
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On Tuesday, bulls for the Japanese yen maintain control. The price failure near the monthly high around 153.25, followed by the subsequent drop, requires caution for bulls in the USD/JPY pair. However, positive oscillators on the daily chart indicate the emergence of buyers at the dip near the round figure of 152.00, from the 151.75 level. A confident breakthrough of the latter would negate the positive outlook, opening the way for deeper losses towards the zone of 151.15–151.00, with intermediate support around 151.50–151.45. On the other hand, the range of 152.83–153.00 now serves as the nearest resistance before the target zone near the monthly high around 153.25–153.3…
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At the end of the week, the Japanese yen attempted to maintain its bullish stance, but profit-taking ahead of the weekend prompted a slight rise in USD/JPY. However, reports released this week by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs indicate that household spending in October 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. This result fell short of market expectations for a 1.0% increase and completely offset the 1.8% growth from the previous month. This marked the first decrease since April and the fastest decline since January 2024, raising new concerns about economic development. Despite this, the Japanese yen tried to hold its ground in the USD/JPY pair, supported by potent…
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On Thursday, the Japanese yen continued to decline. Earlier this week, Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, emphasized that the government would closely monitor foreign exchange movements, underscoring the importance of exchange rates that reflect real economic fundamentals. At the same time, the unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in last Saturday's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race paves the way for her potential appointment as Japan's first female prime minister. Her win also fuels speculation about a more expansionary fiscal approach under her leadership. In response, traders have priced in just a 26% probability that the BoJ will raise its key inte…
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On Tuesday, the yen was losing ground amid a broadly positive tone in stock markets, which typically reduces demand for traditional safe-haven assets. However, further yen weakness seems unlikely, particularly in light of comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Ueda offered the clearest signal yet of possible future policy normalization, stating that the likelihood of meeting the central bank's economic and inflation forecasts has increased. Moreover, inflation in Japan has remained above the 2% target for more than 3 years, underscoring the need to tighten monetary policy. Traders responded quickly, pricing in about an 80% probability of an interest rate hike at…
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Throughout the day, the yen failed to meet expectations for intraday gains relative to a softer U.S. dollar, as market participants focused on Japan's evolving political landscape. According to the Kyodo news agency, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) are planning to form a coalition. As part of this new alliance, a parliamentary vote will be held on Tuesday to confirm Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister. Takaichi supports the economic policies of her predecessor, Shinzo Abe, which include large-scale fiscal spending and monetary stimulus to support economic growth. She is expected to oppose further tightening by the Bank…
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Before the weekend, the USD/JPY pair regained some of its earlier losses, rising to levels close to twelve-month highs amid a strengthening dollar. Market sentiment in the U.S. improved after the temporary government shutdown was partially resolved, though cautious sentiment persists amid uncertainty over the release of delayed economic data following the record-long government shutdown. \ According to U.S. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the situation regarding the release of inflation data remains uncertain, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to fully gather data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. This report may never be published. How…
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The Japanese yen has paused its rapid intraday decline from the weekly low and was trading in a familiar range against a strong US dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting results. Assumptions that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takahichi will promote active budget spending and resist premature tightening of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy are not contributing to the yen's strengthening. On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on the Japanese government to give the BoJ the freedom to maintain low inflation expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations in exchange rates. This statement has revived market forecasts that the US may increase pressure on Japan t…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen The price test at 148.12 during the first half of the day came at a time when the MACD indicator had significantly moved below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The yen could strengthen further against the dollar, as speeches by FOMC members John Williams and Thomas Barkin are expected in the second half of the day. A dovish tone from policymakers could lead to a drop in the USD/JPY pair. In recent days, the Japanese currency has shown signs of weakening, and today's statements from politicians might serve as a reason to pause. If Williams and Barkin take a m…
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Trade Review and Tips on Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 147.92 occurred as the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, a significant drop in the pair did not materialize. The absence of key fundamental data from the U.S. had a positive effect on the outlook for the U.S. dollar, which strengthened quite well against the Japanese yen at the end of last week. However, one should not forget that the situation in the currency markets can change very quickly. In the coming weeks, close attention should be paid to the publication of new economic data — especially on inflation a…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the 156.25 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move above the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying dollars. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips. Strong US labor market data from ADP and JOLTs supported the dollar's rise against the Japanese yen yesterday. The resilience of the labor market continues to strengthen the dollar's position, despite the high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut today. The ADP data, reflecting growth in private sector employment, exceeded expectations, signaling sustained business activity and a need for labor. Sim…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the 156.63 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%. This led to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. The Fed's decision aligned with the expectations of many analysts. The dollar's weakening after this news was immediate. Investors redirected their assets toward currencies with higher yields, leading to an increase in demand for the ye…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 155.74 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed out on all the downward movement. The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar yesterday after data showed that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded economists' forecasts. The released data caused the dollar to weaken, as investors interpreted this as yet another signal of cooling in the US labor market. This, in turn, may affect the Federal Reserve's future interest rate d…
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Deal Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 155.85 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. However, after a decline of 10 pips, the pressure eased at the end of the week. The US dollar showed resilience against the Japanese yen at the end of last week amid cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials. These statements essentially kept the possibility of further monetary policy easing open, although the timing of the next easing has become unclear. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains in demand, as was evident during today's Asian session. The …
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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 155.01 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. However, after the pair declined by 10 pips, the pressure eased. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after Japan's PMI data for manufacturing and services came in better than expected. The yen is also supported by increased expectations for a rate hike from the central bank later this week. Investors will continue to pay close attention to the central bank's signals regarding its next steps. Given rising inflation and improving economic indicator…
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Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test at 155.04 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. A weak report on the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the high likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates acted as catalysts for the Japanese yen's rise against the dollar. The published ISM manufacturing index data from the U.S. came in significantly below analysts' expectations, raising concerns about the slowing economic growth of the largest economy in the world. This weak report undermined investor con…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the 155.95 price coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to turn downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by slightly more than 15 pips. Positive news of a sharp increase in the Economic Optimism Index from RCM/TIPP in the United States prompted a new wave of dollar strength against the Japanese yen; however, it did not spark a broader bullish trend. Today, data on the Services PMI in Japan was released, which increased to 53.2 points, surpassing economists' forecasts and strengthening the yen against the U.S.…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the price at 155.45 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 40 pips. The dollar declined against the Japanese yen following news of a sharp drop in U.S. ADP employment for November, a figure economists had been expecting to rise. This only reinforced market expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. this December, while many economists anticipate the opposite actions leaning toward tightening from the Bank of Japan. The market reaction was immediate: the yen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 154.69 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling dollars. However, a significant decline in the pair did not materialize, resulting in a realized loss. The dollar regained some ground against the Japanese yen, but this was seen as merely a technical correction. Yesterday's statements from Donald Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, put pressure on the US dollar in the USD/JPY pair. Investors reacted by selling following his comments regarding a potential adjustment in US monetary po…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 155.73 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 pips. The dollar continues to regain ground against the Japanese yen, and there are currently no particularly aggressive sellers, even though conditions should be favorable for yen buyers. Apparently, traders have decided to pause ahead of the central bank outcomes from these countries. Today's data showing a decline in machinery orders in Japan somewhat weakened the yen against the dollar. However, the pair's …
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 153.37 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by 20 pips. The Japanese yen overlooked the sharp decline in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which fell to 50.3 points, and continued to show weakness against the U.S. dollar, preventing a significant sell-off in USD/JPY last Friday. This paradoxical scenario is caused by several interconnected factors that outweigh the impact of U.S. macroeconomic data on the yen's dynamics. Primarily, the key role …
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 154.23 occurred as the MACD indicator began to decline from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 pips. Today's positive data on the growth of machinery orders in Japan did not provide any support for the Japanese yen. Investors seemed to ignore this positive data and focused on other factors, putting pressure on the Japanese currency. In particular, this pertains to the persistent interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, especially the US. Planned actions by the new Japanese government to stimu…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 154.75 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Yesterday marked the return to work for the US government. President Trump signed the H.R. 5371 bill, effectively ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The dollar rose against the Japanese yen following this event. The resumption of funding was a breath of fresh air for a large number of federal employees who had been forced to take unpaid leave. It is evident that they will receive compensation for the forced downtime, allowi…
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