Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11938 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Analysis and USD/JPY Trading TipsThe price test at 150.26 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, confirming it as a valid entry point for selling the dollar. This signal led to a drop in the pair of over 40 points. A moderate decline in the dollar occurred yesterday afternoon following yet another failed round of budget talks between Republicans and Democrats, which resulted in an extended government shutdown. As is commonly known, a shutdown erodes confidence in the U.S. economy. Moreover, the shutdown has a direct impact on the flow of economic data. When government agencies cease operations, it causes delays in reports …
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Trade Review and Strategy for the Japanese YenA price test at 151.17 occurred while the MACD indicator was beginning to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair gained more than 40 pips. The yen continued to rapidly lose ground against the dollar following yesterday's comments from Federal Reserve officials. Specifically, remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari — who warned that a sharp decrease in interest rates could lead to a surge in inflation — triggered a rally in the dollar and further weakness in the yen. However, the yen's current weakness is also driven by domestic factors. Following S…
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Trade Breakdown and Strategy for the Japanese YenA test of the 152.71 level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid sell entry. This strategy resulted in a decline of more than 25 pips in the pair. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting path as early as October, as clearly indicated by yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes, which put some minor pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, this did little to disrupt the bullish trend that USD/JPY has demonstrated since the start of the week. Today's equipment orders data from Japan offered only brief support to the yen. While the growth suggests a…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 146.74 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulted in growth toward the target level of 147.48. Despite the lack of reports and strong demand for the yen in the first half of the day, things changed very quickly. Some market participants revised their expectations regarding the Fed's next steps and began to take profits. Today's driver for the pair will be the US price growth figures, though this data is scheduled for the second half of the day. For this reason, during the European session, not…
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Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The levels I indicated were not tested during the first half of the day. Low market volatility ahead of key data discouraged traders from acting more actively. This afternoon, August U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, including both the headline index and the version excluding volatile categories such as food and energy. A report on changes in wholesale inventories will also be published. These reports will serve as key indicators of inflationary trends in the U.S. economy and will strongly influence the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. Particular attention is paid to the core PPI, as i…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 147.59 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying dollars, which resulted in a gain of more than 40 pips. In the second half of the day, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August will be released, and a decrease in this indicator will restore demand for the Japanese yen, significantly weakening the dollar. The CPI excluding food and energy prices is also crucial. Lower inflation could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see approach, which would negatively impact the attractiveness of t…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenA test of the 147.32 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero line—a good confirmation to sell the dollar. However, this did not lead to a significant drop in the pair. The yen reacted with only a minor gain against the US dollar after news that US producer prices in August declined, not increased. This restrained reaction reflects a mix of factors, including ongoing concerns about Japan's economic outlook and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Despite dollar weakness from US data, investors remain cautious about the yen, given its sensitivity to global economic swings—weak …
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.58 price level in the first half of the day occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point for buying dollars and resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. In the second half of the day, the only notable data is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Weak data will help the yen strengthen against the dollar. The sentiment index, as a barometer of consumer confidence, can forecast changes in consumer spending, which directly impacts economic growth. Inflation expectations, in turn, shape investors' views on t…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenA test of 147.80 occurred just as the MACD indicator was starting to move down from the zero line, confirming a good entry for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area of 147.03. US inflation data once again weakened the dollar and boosted the Japanese yen. The published US inflation figures, which show a slowdown in consumer price growth, triggered the expected reaction in the currency markets. Additionally, another reason for the yen's appreciation is that a weaker dollar reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan, which has recently faced criticism for not shifting toward a tighter policy. Howev…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 148.06 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, and this decision proved correct as the pair failed to continue rising. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after last Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.4 points, versus economists' forecast for an increase to 58. This unexpected slump in American consumer sentiment reinforced the market's belief in the need for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The dollar, which had previously been…
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Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 147.54 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The dollar may rise against the yen if the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index shows strong results. However, the figures would need to significantly exceed economists' expectations. The Empire Manufacturing Index, which reflects the state of the manufacturing sector in New York State, is traditionally considered an indicator of U.S. economic activity. Better-than-expected results often signal rising production, higher orders, and overall improve…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of 147.45 coincided with MACD moving far above zero, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, which turned out to be correct. A sharp 0.5% rise in Japan's services activity index supported the yen. As a key part of the Japanese economy, growth in services reflects improved consumer and business confidence, potentially boosting domestic demand and easing recession fears, which favorably affects the attractiveness of the yen. Still, one indicator should not be overestimated. The situation on the currency markets is complex and influenced by many factors, including tomorr…
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Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen The test of 146.88 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test of 146.88, at the moment when MACD was in the oversold area, led to the implementation of Buy Scenario #2 and a 15-point rise in the yen. In the second half of the day, U.S. data will be released on August retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing output. Weak figures would trigger another wave of yen strength, as the currency has recently shown signs of stabilization after a period of high volatility. A decline in U.S. retail…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of 146.88 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming it as the correct entry point for selling the dollar, and this resulted in a drop of over 40 pips in the pair. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more dovish approach have been the main factor pressuring the dollar and supporting the Japanese yen. Most likely, in the first half of today, the dollar will continue to struggle to gain ground. This situation is due to several factors. First, US economic data lately has been clearly negative, offering a sobering picture of the US economy. Second, even …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 146.62 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 146.62, when the MACD was in the overbought area, led to the execution of sell scenario #2 and a 30-point drop in the yen. In the second half of the day, everything depends on the FOMC. The key interest rate will be announced, the committee's economic review will be published, and then Jerome Powell's press conference will take place. The recent unstable economic situation in the country makes the FOMC's decision a powerful factor ca…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of 146.17 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by more than 40 pips. Yesterday's Fed decision to cut rates led to a temporary strengthening of the yen, but then demand for the dollar returned. The initial market reaction to the Fed's rate cut was predictable: the yen, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, strengthened. The key factor behind the subsequent reversal was the absence of clear signals from the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Traders hoping for stronger statem…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.49 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a good upward move. The jump in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index to 21 points in August led to instant dollar buying and a drop in the Japanese yen. This surge took most analysts by surprise—forecasts had called for much lower readings—and triggered an immediate reassessment of the US economic outlook. Investors eager to catch any signs of recovery quickly turned to the dollar as a safe haven and profit i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 147.69 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 points. In the second half of the day, no US statistics are scheduled, so the market's attention will be on a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. However, the yen, as is well known, has its own resilience due to the Bank of Japan's long-standing tradition of stable monetary policy. Markets will closely monitor Daly's words, looking for hints of a potential acceleration in Fed rate cuts. Suc…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 148.49 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved sharply above zero, limiting the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level allowed for selling according to Scenario #2, but it ended with a stop-out as the pair failed to drop as expected. The sharp jump in US new home sales in August strengthened the dollar and sent the Japanese yen lower. This unexpected surge in real estate activity signaled the resilience of the US economy, which immediately impacted investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. The jump in sales exceeded analyst forecasts, reinforcing the b…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenA test of the 148.95 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero mark, which limited the upside potential for the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed the entire upward move. The upward revision of US Q2 GDP to 3.8% from 3.0% acted as a catalyst not only for dollar strength but also triggered a real storm across currency markets—most notably seen in the sharp sell-off of the Japanese yen. This unexpected acceleration in the US economy has given the dollar's sails a boost, propelling it confidently forward, while the yen has suffered the brunt of the move. Investors, b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 149.56 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the entire downward move. The Japanese yen surged sharply against the US dollar at the end of last week after news that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by only 0.2%, entirely in line with economists' forecasts. Although expected, this release triggered a chain reaction in the currency markets. Investors interpreted it as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adjust its policy course as …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 148.58 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line. This limited the pair's downside potential, and as a result, I chose not to sell the dollar. The second test of the same level occurred while the MACD was in oversold territory, which triggered the implementation of Scenario #2 (Buy). However, this did not result in a significant upward move for the pair. A U.S. government shutdown has become even more probable following yesterday's meeting between Democrats and Republicans. The failure to reach an agreement weakened the dollar and strengthened the yen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 148.08 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair plunged by 120 pips. Buying on the rebound from 146.84 allowed for an additional profit of around 60 pips from the market. Employment in the US non-farm sector grew by only 22,000 in August, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. This unexpectedly weak figure, which contrasts sharply with forecasts predicting an increase of around 75,000 jobs, caused a wave of concern in financi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 147.98 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 147.43. During the U.S. session, consumer credit data may once again push USD/JPY higher. This is because an increase in consumer credit reflects growing consumer confidence and, consequently, strengthening of the U.S. economy. A strong U.S. economy traditionally supports the dollar. However, it is important to remember that the forex market is influenced by many factors, and while credit statistics …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 147.60 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far down from the zero level, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Today's data on the growth of the money supply aggregate in Japan supported the yen and weakened the dollar's position. An increase in the money supply, reflecting higher liquidity in the Japanese economy, is usually seen by the market as a positive factor. This may indicate increased business activity, rising investments, and consumer spending. In turn, this strengthens investor confidence in the prospects of the Japanese economy…
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