Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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On Monday, USD/JPY unexpectedly breached the 150 range, shocking traders with a 200-pip upward gap. The pair continues to show bullish momentum, ascending into new price territories. The last time the pair reached the 150.50 level was in early August, when traders were reacting to the outcome of the Bank of Japan's July meeting. Back then, the meeting results disappointed yen bulls: the central bank remained overly cautious and failed to signal a clear timeline for the next interest rate hike. As a result, the yen weakened, and USD/JPY hit multi-month highs, peaking at 150.92. The rally is also indirectly linked to the BOJ's anticipated inaction. However, the catalyst…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 154.17 price occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and skipped the move. In the second half of the day, we will only see U.S. factory orders data, which is unlikely to significantly help the dollar rise against the Japanese yen. Investors' attention is currently focused on other factors that determine currency-pair dynamics. The key factor is the anticipation of signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy. The market is pri…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 154.10 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. However, a strong rally in the pair never materialized. In the second half of the day, there are no U.S. economic reports, so it's worth recalling that yesterday, some centrist-leaning Democrats defied party leadership and supported a proposed agreement aimed at ending the unprecedented government shutdown. Today, this initiative will go to a final vote. Currency markets are closely watching developments, recognizing that the outcome of the vote will …
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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 154.39 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. In the second half of the day, the only release will be the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S., and only strong data could trigger a new wave of growth in USD/JPY. Otherwise, yen strengthening could lead to a decent correction in the pair. Traders are closely monitoring any signals that might indicate a change in Bank of Japan policy, as well as the actions of the Ministry of Finance, which has repeatedly expr…
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Trade Review and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 154.52 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid sell entry point for the dollar. However, the expected decline did not follow, resulting in a loss on the trade. Going forward, market participants will closely monitor whether Federal Reserve officials maintain their wait-and-see stance or show greater readiness to ease policy, given the unfavorable economic data. The statements of these officials will be carefully analyzed for clues about how the Fed views the future prospects of interest rate changes. Let me remind you that FOMC me…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese YenThe price test at 154.81 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 154.36. Today, in the second half of the day, no key U.S. economic data releases are scheduled, so market participants' attention will be focused on speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The remarks from Musalem and Hammack are expected to be an important source of insight into the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. It's essential to remember that FOMC officials' stateme…
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 154.63 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A second test of 154.63, with the MACD in the overbought zone, triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the dollar, though it did not lead to a significant decline in the pair. In the second half of the day, the focus will be on speeches by FOMC members Lorie K. Logan and Raphael Bostic. A hawkish stance on rates could help the USD/JPY pair rise. Statements by senior Federal Reserve officials always attract close market attention, as they provide insight into the curr…
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Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese YenNo tests of the levels I indicated occurred during the first half of the day. The very low volatility of USD/JPY prevented suitable entry points into the market. The Japanese yen completely ignored an important economic growth report. According to the data, Japan's real GDP fell by 1.8% year-on-year in Q3. Compared to Q2, GDP decreased by 0.4%. Clearly, this unexpected decline casts doubt on optimistic forecasts for Japan's economic recovery in the near future without active government support. Analysts link the GDP contraction to several factors, including falling domestic demand, rising import energy pri…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test at 155.01 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct sell-entry point for the dollar. However, a significant decline in the pair did not occur during the first half of the day. In the second half of the day, market focus will shift to the NAHB U.S. Housing Market Index and data on changes in industrial orders. Additionally, speeches by FOMC members Michael Barr and Thomas Barkin are expected. Hawkish statements from the regulators could potentially push the dollar higher. If the NAHB index shows further deterioration in builder sentiment, it…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The test of the 155.49 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point to buy the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 155.90. The Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar following comments by Sanae Takaichi, a prominent member of the advisory council to the Prime Minister of Japan. Takaichi expressed the opinion that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise its key interest rate at least until March of next year. This is because the government needs to ensure the effectiveness of planned large-sca…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The test of the 157.76 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Ahead of us are figures on U.S. non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and the change in private-sector employment. These indicators, like a finely tuned musical score, can orchestrate sentiment in the financial markets, determining directional movements in currency pairs—especially those involving the U.S. dollar. Changes in non-farm payrolls act as a barometer of economic acti…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 156.67 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed a good downward move. In the second half of the day, close attention will be directed toward the release of U.S. economic data for September, including industrial price dynamics, changes in retail trade, and the business activity index calculated by the Richmond Fed. Retail sales data will provide insight into the level of consumer demand. A decline in retail sales may signal a slowdown in economic exp…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 156.20 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 156.20 happened when the MACD was in the overbought area, which triggered the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for selling. However, the trade resulted in losses. In the second half of the day, there are no important fundamental statistics from the US, so active trading in the USD/JPY pair is unlikely. Additionally, US markets will be closed due to Thanksgiving. This combination of factors …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen Because of low volatility, the price did not reach the levels I indicated during the first half of the day. In the absence of further catalysts that determine price direction, USD/JPY may show consolidation, relying on current support and resistance levels. Traders using intraday strategies can take advantage of this situation to profit from small range-bound fluctuations. However, despite the expected stability in the second half of the day, it is important to remember that unexpected news or geopolitical events can disrupt the balance. Therefore, monitoring the rhetoric and actions of central banks becomes an impor…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenGiven the very low market volatility, the price never reached the levels I had indicated earlier, so in the first half of the day I remained without any trades. During the U.S. session, attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve representatives. Speeches by FOMC members Mary Daly and Lisa D. Cook could trigger new, much stronger market movements—but only if we hear something new. Investors are eager to learn what these influential FOMC members think about inflation prospects, interest rates, and the overall state of the economy. Will they maintain their previously dovish stance after last week's rate cut, or adopt a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The 153.70 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the dollar. It seems that after yet another round of verbal intervention threats from Japan's Finance Minister during the Asian session today, there's little left to support the yen, and those willing to buy it are gradually decreasing. Unless actual intervention occurs—and not just talk and concern over the exchange rate—it's unlikely we'll see a significant decline in the USD/JPY pair. The lack of clear signals from the Bank …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of trades and advice on trading the Japanese yen The test of the 153.75 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Given that strong demand for the Japanese yen has still not returned, despite all the warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance, volatility may spike in the second half of the day. The market awaits the release of U.S. ISM Services PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. Composite PMI, and the ADP employment report. The ISM index, in particular, serves as an indicator of the health of the services sector, which plays a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen A price test at 153.81 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I chose not to sell the dollar. Today, all investors will be closely watching statements from three members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Remarks by Michael S. Barr, John Williams, and Christopher Waller are expected to help determine the direction of USD/JPY. Michael Barr is of particular interest to analysts, as his views on inflation dynamics and economic growth prospects are still evolving. John Williams, head of the Federal Reserve…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.04 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 45 points. Since the second half of the day will not bring any significant U.S. economic releases, it's reasonable to assume that major market participants will act more cautiously. Market fluctuations will continue to be driven by news related to U.S.–China relations. In the current environment, even a minor report concerning trade relations could instantly affect financial markets. Therefore,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test of 151.95 in the first half of the day occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points. During the U.S. session, data on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released. Although this macroeconomic indicator might appear insignificant, it can still influence currency market dynamics — particularly for risk-sensitive assets. The NFIB index, reflecting the sentiment of small business owners, provides valuable insights into the outlook for U.S. econom…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 151.30 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 151.30 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, triggering Scenario #2 for a sell trade, but the pair never actually declined, resulting in a loss. Today's focus is on the Empire Manufacturing report. Given the lack of any other significant statistics, this release alone may provide insight into the state of the manufacturing sector in the region. Traders …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 150.74 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar — but a significant rally never materialized. During the U.S. session, only the Leading Economic Index will be released, so we are unlikely to see any major shifts in the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, it's better to focus on new Trump statements regarding the resolution of the U.S.–China trade conflict. However, it's also important to remember that the Leading Economic Index is essentially a barometer of the U.S. economy. It aggregate…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 151.28 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair did not experience a significant decline afterward. The yen fell sharply against the dollar today, as rumors spread that the Bank of Japan sees no urgent need to raise its key interest rate, despite the economy moving closer to achieving its inflation target. During the U.S. trading session, there are no scheduled U.S. economic releases, so the main focus will be on the speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 151.72 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar — however, a major decline in the pair did not follow. From here, much will depend on the speech by FOMC member Michael S. Barr. If Barr avoids commenting on future policy prospects, pressure on the yen will likely resume. The Japanese currency is highly sensitive to the monetary policy divergence between Japan and the U.S. Given that the Bank of Japan is limited in its ability to raise interest rates due to the stan…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 152.90 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar — which resulted in only a 10-point decline. The second half of the trading day promises to become an arena of intense market battles, with new U.S. economic indicators taking center stage. The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the opening gong, resonating across the entire financial spectrum — especially given its delayed release due to the government shutdown. If the figures exceed expectations, reinforcing …
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