Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11930 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of 147.60 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by more than 30 points. During the U.S. trading session, the main focus will be on FOMC member John Williams' speech and the ISM Services PMI report. The absence of U.S. labor market data is certainly disappointing, so market participants will likely scrutinize Williams' remarks in hopes of clues regarding the Fed's next steps in monetary policy. A more dovish tone, indicating a possible …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 150.58 in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. In the second half of the day, market attention will shift to U.S. trade balance data and consumer credit figures. A reduction in the trade deficit could positively influence the dollar, especially if the actual value exceeds expectations. Consumer credit volumes, on the other hand, serve as an important barometer of consumer sentiment and spending willingness. An increase in consumer credit may indicate optimism and confidence in the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 152.75 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar in continuation of the bullish market. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points. The Japanese yen may lose even more ground against the dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech — especially in light of the lack of any important U.S. fundamental statistics. In the absence of macroeconomic data, market participants' full attention will be on the speeches of U.S. central bank officials. Analysts agree that any hints about keeping…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice on trading the Japanese yen The designated test levels were not reached in the first half of the day. In the second half of the day, USD/JPY will be strongly influenced by data on initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP, and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. These macroeconomic indicators, like seismic waves, can trigger significant volatility in the currency market, determining the pair's next direction. Initial jobless claims serve as a barometer of labor market health. A sharp decline would signal resilience and likely be interpreted positively by the Federal Reserve. Conversely, an increase could point to deteriorating conditions…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The levels I marked were not tested in the first half of the day. Today, in addition to data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, changes in household spending, and household income in the U.S., attention should also be paid to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Strong figures will lead to another strengthening of the dollar against the Japanese yen. The consumer sentiment index, as a barometer of Americans' confidence, plays a key role in shaping market forecasts. Positive readings, reflecting optimism about the future, stimulate consumer spending a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The test of 148.74 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. In the second half of the day, U.S. pending home sales data will be released. However, a much greater impact on USD/JPY will come from the speeches of Fed officials Christopher Waller and John Williams. The market is waiting in suspense, trying to anticipate the direction of monetary policy. Investors listen closely to every word, searching for hints about the future of interest rates. Pending …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of 148.05 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. During the U.S. trading session, several important economic releases should be monitored. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, data on new jobs, and labor market changes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected. A speech by FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee is also scheduled. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report will receive the most attention. At the same time, Goolsbee's remarks may spark additional int…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The test of the 156.96 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. In the second half of the day, a number of important U.S. economic indicators are expected to be released: the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the Composite PMI. In addition, the results of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and data on inflation expectations will be published. Traders closely monitor these reports because they provide important information about the current state of the U.S. econ…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Key takeaways USD/JPY reversed from its recent high of 153.28, falling 2.2% as bullish U.S. dollar momentum faded.Political uncertainty in Japan weakened the “Takaichi Trade,” reducing bets on extended monetary easing.The 10-year U.S.-Japan sovereign yield spread broke below key 2.47% support, signalling further downside pressure.Technical indicators point to a short-term bearish setup, with support at 149.05–148.55 and resistance at 151.70. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY: Current JPY weakness is driven by short-term sentiment as it disconnects from US-Japan yields”, published on 9 October 2025. Since our prior report, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the pair actively declined, losing nearly 150 pips during the day. However, sellers were unable to break through the support level at 154.70 (Kijun-sen line on the D1 chart), after which buyers took the initiative again. The trading day closed at 155.45, and on Tuesday, the pair continued to recover from its losses. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the pair has been in an upward trend since early October, when the price was in the mid-149 range. Just a few weeks later, in November, buyers reached an 11-month high at 157.90. However, traders were unable to enter the 158 zone and could not maintain their positions. Amid the general weakening of th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair updated its 8-month price high, firmly settling within the 152 range for the first time since February this year. The yen remains under intense pressure following the internal party elections within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in which Sanae Takaichi emerged victorious. This means she is now the most likely candidate to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. However, the leader of the ruling party does not automatically become head of government. Takaichi's nomination must still be approved by parliament — and the LDP does not hold a majority in either chamber. A failed attempt by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, who …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Japanese yen has reached its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since early August, maintaining the groundwork for further declines. The unexpected results of the elections in Japan are pushing the country toward expansionary fiscal policy, complicating the Bank of Japan's task of controlling inflation and stimulating the economy. In addition, market participants have already started to factor in the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the month, which explains the yen's weak position. Asian stock indices continue to follow Wall Street's rally. This further undermines the yen's role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, data published in Japan s…
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Today, the Japanese yen is leading amid concerns about possible interventions. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noted that recently there have been one-sided and sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of stable currency movements that reflect the economy's fundamentals. This has supported the yen, although political uncertainty could limit its gains. Last week, the long-standing LDP–Komeito coalition unexpectedly collapsed, as newly elected LDP leader Sanae Takaichi awaits a parliamentary vote to confirm her as Japan's first female prime minister. The breakup means Takaichi will need support from other parties to advance her key initiat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating around the key psychological level of 152.00, showing readiness to break above it — a scenario that favors the bulls. In addition, positive oscillators on the daily chart indicate the pair's potential for further strengthening. A sustained move beyond this level would open the way toward the next round level of 153.00, with some resistance expected around 152.25 and 152.70. On the other hand, the 150.70–150.30 level serves as strong support before the psychological level of 150.00. A break below this area would likely lead the pair toward the next round level of 149.00, with an interim stop around 149.40, before eventually dropping…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
From a technical standpoint, yesterday's close above the psychological level of 155.00 has given the USD/JPY pair new upward momentum. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are positive and have not yet entered overbought territory, indicating that spot prices are still oriented toward further gains. Consequently, additional strengthening of the pair beyond the intermediate resistance at 155.60 on the way back toward the round level of 156.00 appears quite likely. On the other hand, a corrective pullback below the round level of 155.00 will encounter strong support, attracting new buyers in the 154.50 level. This level serves as a key support point; a break below it wo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Japanese yen is under pressure. On Monday, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, plans to begin discussions on tax reform this week. The main goal is to reduce certain taxes to stimulate investment and consumer demand, while increasing other tax rates and eliminating exemptions to offset the budget deficit. The report notes that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), together with its coalition partners, will discuss the tax package for the coming year, including the cancellation of gasoline and diesel fuel surcharges, which may reduce budget revenues by about 1.5 trillion yen. On Monday, government data showed that Japan's economy cont…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USD/JPY pair closed this week above the psychological 155.00 level, and positive oscillators across all timeframes point to a continued upward bias. As a result, the pair has already reached the round 156.00 level. The momentum may continue higher toward the next major barrier at 156.60, above which spot prices will be ready to reach the round 157.00 level, heading toward the 157.45 level. On the other hand, a corrective pullback will find strong support near the psychological 155.00 level, while further weakening could attract new buyers near the breakout point of the horizontal resistance at 154.50. This level will become a key reversal point; a break below it would…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USD/JPY pair has been rising for four consecutive days, but it is important to note that the RSI—the daily Relative Strength Index—shows overbought conditions, thereby discouraging traders from entering new bullish positions. Therefore, before planning for further upside, it would be prudent to wait for short-term consolidation or a minor pullback. However, any corrective decline may find strong support at the psychological level of 157.00, as well as around 156.60. A break below this level could allow USD/JPY to extend its decline toward the psychological level of 156.00. This level will act as a pivot, and prolonged movement below it would trigger technical selling,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday's rally in the pair encountered resistance around the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 156.70. This level has become a key barrier before further broad-based growth. A sustained move above this level would allow spot prices to overcome the round 157.00 level, continuing the rise toward intermediate resistance at 157.20, then 157.50, and eventually reaching the 158.00 round level — the highest value since mid-January, which was nearly reached last week. On the other hand, a decline below the Asian session low near 155.70, as well as the previous Asian session low around 155.65, will open the path to deeper losses, pushing USD/JPY toward the psychological…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Japanese yen continues its confident intraday rise and has reached a two-week high against the weakening US dollar. The Japanese yen continues its confident intraday rise and has reached a two-week high against the weakening US dollar. Bears in the USD/JPY pair are trying to accelerate the decline below the 155.40 area, which corresponds to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the oscillators on this same chart are in negative territory. However, it is worth noting that on the daily chart, they remain in positive territory. This suggests that the USD/JPY pair is not ready for a broad downward move and will likely find strong suppo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
From a technical perspective, yesterday's breakout of the 153.25–153.30 level — the previous monthly high — and subsequent strengthening above the round level of 154.00 are viewed as the main triggers for further growth in the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory, though they are approaching the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests the likelihood of a period of consolidation or correction, after which spot prices will be ready to move higher toward 154.75–154.80, aiming for the psychological level of 155.00. On the other hand, a drop below the round level of 154.00 should find solid support and remain limited to th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the pair is attracting buyers amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen is weakening due to uncertainty about the timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike, driven by expectations that the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will pursue an aggressive fiscal spending policy. An additional factor is the decline in expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting, which also puts pressure on the yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has so far shown no determination to continue raising its key rate, given the pro-stimulus stance of the new Prime Minister. This keeps the yen weak against the bullish U.S. dollar. The core consumer price index (CPI)…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the moment, the USD/JPY pair has paused around the 154.00 psychological level, facing resistance at 154.50 on its way toward 155.00. A sustained move above the horizontal barrier at 154.50 would provide new momentum for the bulls. Given that the daily chart oscillators remain firmly in positive territory and are still far from the overbought zone, spot prices are likely to aim for a breakout above the psychological 155.00 level. The bullish momentum could extend further toward 155.60, before the pair reaches the 156.00 round level. On the other hand, a pullback below the 154.00 level could be seen as a buying opportunity within the 153.60–153.50 level. This would help …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Japanese yen continues to struggle to attract buyers, as uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy persists. On Monday, the Bank released its "Summary of Opinions," which revealed internal divisions among policymakers regarding the outlook for future interest rate hikes. In addition, Junko Nakagawa, a member of the Bank of Japan's Board of Directors, emphasized that the central bank intends to maintain a cautious approach when making new policy decisions. These statements have reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay rate hikes, especially given the plans of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's new government to implement large-scal…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the Japanese currency is attracting buyers, but investors remain cautious about the possibility of monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan amid the pro-stimulus stance of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her desire to maintain low interest rates. This reduces the impact of statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who has noted that inflation is accelerating and approaching the 2% target, continuing to put pressure on the yen's exchange rate. Additional momentum came from optimism surrounding the resumption of the U.S. federal government's operations, which has reduced the yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency. At the same time, the recent decline in the…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
