Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11917 tópicos neste fórum
-
With the increased adoption of cryptocurrency and its inherent nature of facilitating simplified, cross-border transactions, there has been a massive crypto payroll surge over the last year. According to Pantera Capital’s 2024 Blockchain Compensation Survey, published on 5 August 2025, more than three times as many people received compensation in cryptocurrency compared to the previous year. Additionally, the survey highlighted USDC standing out as the most popular digital asset for payroll purposes. Interestingly, USDC made up 63% of all salaries paid in digital assets, way ahead of USDT’s 38.6% share. Other tokens like Solana and Ethereum trailed behind, representing…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A growing number of workers are now getting paid in crypto. In 2023, just 3% of those surveyed said part of their salary arrived as digital tokens. By 2024, that share jumped to 9.6%. This shift comes as blockchain firms and DAOs explore new ways to handle cross-border pay. Reports have disclosed that purely fiat payments fell from 95% to 85% over the same period. Rise In Crypto Payroll According to Pantera Capital’s 2024 Blockchain Compensation Survey, USDC leads the pack. It now makes up over 60% of all crypto wages. USDT trails with 28%. Smaller slices go to Solana at 1.9% and Ethereum at 1.3%. These numbers point to stablecoins becoming a regular tool for payrol…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On-chain data shows a large amount of USDC inflows have just hit exchanges, a potential sign that investors are looking to buy the Bitcoin dip. USDC Exchange Inflow Has Registered Multiple Spikes Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the USDC Exchange Inflow has shot up recently. The “Exchange Inflow” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of a given asset that’s being transferred to wallets connected with centralized exchanges. Generally, investors deposit their coins to these platforms when they want to trade them away. As such, whenever the Exchange Inflow spikes, it can be a sign that there is …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDCAD had seen a decent rebound from last week lows, starting the week at 1.36850. It was a generally positive week for the US Dollar and a relatively muted one for the Loonie. A lack of key economic data before this morning led to some recovery in the USD, particularly as earnings came in overall better than expected. We just received the report for the Core PCE Data which came in as expected, at 2.5% Y/Y. This piece of data is what the FED wants to see to resume the cut cycle that had began in September 2024, taking the Effective FED Funds Rate (The main US Policy rate) from 5.50% to the current 4.25%. The last 25 bps cut was done in December 2024. The Bank of Can…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GDP data for Q2 just got released – A 3.3% annualized beat vs a 3.1 expectations could have been expected to lead to a USD rally, but the reverse happened instead. The Greenback is currently the second worst performer of all majors, just ahead of the CHF. You can access our latest piece on the data release right here to know more on the details on the report. Tomorrow will also await the GDP data release for Canada which should add to some volatility in the pair. USDCAD is now back into its July range which spanned between 1.3550 to 1.38 – Further correction would be needed to fully confirm the re-entry – Discover which ones in our technical analysis just below. In t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This morning's massive beat in the Producer Price Index (PPI) sent markets rattling as we get to see the first real effects of tariffs-led inflation on data. You can access the details of the PPI report right here. The US Dollar is strengthening from the higher yields and lower rate cut expectations, particularly as it stands around the lows of its ascending channel – Take a quick look at the Dollar Index chart: …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDCAD rises from a disappointing Canadian Employment number. The data which came at -40.8K vs 13.5K expected , takes out half of the past month's upwards surprise (+83K) and looking at the detail, full-time employment saw the most regression (-51K) while part-time employment rose by a small margin. Overall, the unemployment rate came as expected (6.9% vs 6.9% exp) but overall, Canada has been struggling with job creation for a while now. Canadian Employment data tends to be pretty volatile, especially during summer. In the meantime, the Loonie had appreciated a bit against the US Dollar in the past few days. With not many factors prompting participants to buy the CA…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Talks between the US and Canada appear to have resumed in the latest episode of “TACO” Trump trade drama. During a Friday news conference, Trump announced he was stepping away from negotiations with Canada. In response, the Land of Maple Syrup dropped its plans to implement a Digital Services Tax—one that would have directly impacted many American service-exporting firms. The proposed tax now appears to have been more of a negotiation tactic from Canada aimed at its increasingly unpredictable neighbor. Markets initially reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social, sparking a 900-pip rally. However, the move quickly faded as participants recognized a familiar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A key theme of 2025 has been broad North American currency weakness — particularly against the Euro and other European majors. Both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar have struggled to attract sustained inflows as economic momentum has slowed on both sides of the border. This comes amid a generally weaker Canadian economy (Canada Trade balance data missed again today at -6.32B vs -5.55B exp), the US Main rate remaining elevated and projected to get reduced (we only just got the first 25 bps cut), and, more importantly, US Tariffs hurting trade and economic activity further, particularly between the two neighbors. Markets received some decent Canadian Ivey PMI result…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Swiss Franc has been on a formidable run in 2025, continuing a trend that began when it reached parity with the US Dollar in November 2022. With the American Exceptionalism theme, widening deficits, and growing trade distrust, markets have sought the CHF as a stable hedge against the Greenback. Switzerland’s neutrality in economic and geopolitical affairs—and its low, stable inflation—make it an attractive safe haven, especially in a world facing fresh conflicts. The Franc’s rally to 2011 highs has also been fueled by regional currency trends. Since early 2025, the Euro’s strength has lifted its neighbors, adding tailwinds to the CHF. This trend is actually one t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US Dollar has been at the center of significant volatility over the past few weeks, navigating a softer NFP release at the beginning of the month, a notably stronger PPI report, and a Federal Reserve Chair Powell who was interpreted as dovish despite his measured tone. This led to a drop in the Greenback last Friday, followed by a minor rebound in today's session. On the other hand, the Swiss Franc hasn't pursued its strengthening trend against its major counterparts as the Swiss National Bank got caught in a massive disinflationary trend, forcing their dovish tone. As a reminder, Switzerland has achieved one of the worst tariff deals with the US, with the Swiss pro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USDCHF has been grinding steadily lower today after an early test of resistance in the Asian session. The pair briefly pushed up to 0.79948, just above the top of a swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994, before sellers reasserted control. Fundamentals also leaned against the dollar after remarks from Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel. He reiterated that Technically, the move lower has extended into the U.S. session, with the pair breaking below another swing area between 0.7938 and 0.79471. Holding under this zone keeps sellers firmly in control and exposes the next downside target at 0.7910–0.79209. A further break would shift focus to the 2024 low at 0.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
In today’s crypto update, Ethena saw its total value locked (TVL) drop from $14.8 billion to $7.6 billion, a reduction of more than 50% that highlights how tricky yield-bearing stablecoins can be. When markets grow, they grow fast. However, they contract just as quickly. USDe’s TVL dropped as traders exited looping strategies on platforms such as Aave, where they were habitually recycling staked USDes as collateral to borrow USDC, only to swap back and repeat. (Source: DefiLlama) This created a leverage of 10x or more, and while it worked when the USDe’s yield was higher than the borrowing cost, now that the yield has fallen below Aave’s 5.4% loan rate, this strategy…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The United States continues to demonstrate why it remains the largest and most powerful economy in the world, consistently surprising markets with its resilience in the past few data releases. While market participants have been eager to question US strength—especially under President Trump’s “US Exceptionalism” policy, which many feared could backfire—recent economic data continues to challenge that narrative. Despite ongoing concerns over diplomatic volatility and declining business confidence, the US economy once again delivered upside surprises. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected at 110K, surprised with a +37K beat, and the more influential ISM Services PM…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USDJPY surged in early trading following the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba over the weekend. From Friday’s close at 147.382, the pair spiked higher in the Asian session, reaching a peak of 148.57—just above the 50% midpoint of the range defined since the August 1 high (148.555). However, momentum could not be sustained. That rally was quickly unwound, with the pair sliding to a European morning low of 147.457, pushing briefly below the 200-hour moving average at 147.727. Over the past several hours, price action has stabilized but remains choppy, with the pair oscillating above and below this key long-term average as traders digest two competing forces:…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDJPY, a historically volatile forex pair, has failed to break lows and has been consolidating at the low of its 2024 to today’s monthly range. Looking at higher timeframes allows us to see where prices currently stand and zones of interest as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan’s Monetary policies diverge once again. From Monthly to Daily charts, we will look at zones of interest in potential breakouts or reversals. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Markets are far from straightforward, and political instability doesn’t always translate into weakness in the subject currency. In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation was expected since the Liberal Democratic Party he represents lost the vote in mid-July which preceded a stronger yen. Participants are relieved from the resignation that is taking place right ahead of a no-confidence vote in Japan that would oust the Prime Minister and provoke further political unrest. If you want to see how bad these turn out, look at France today (hosting some of the largest protests in years) after French PM Bayrou got kicked out, losing a no-confidence vote. Ishiba aimed to pursue t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Like other FX pairs, USDJPY has been held in a tight range for the past two full weeks. There is a lack of clarity regarding the outlook for US cuts due to contradicting data, supplemented by Markets having digested a more balanced/dovish tone from Powell rather than a fully dovish one (from a more balanced/hawkish tone regarding the impact of tariffs). The question remains: Will there be only 2 cuts this year? This would not change much to the FED's quarterly outlook from previous meetings. Markets are also awaiting more information regarding who will be the next FED board member. Reactions to the US Dollar have been minimal regarding the firing of Lisa Cook, a board …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDJPY has been range-bound between 142.30 and 146.29 since mid-May, following a five-month downtrend. Volatility within the range has remained elevated, driven by a combination of geopolitical developments and key data releases impacting multiple asset classes. From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict between Iran and Israel shows no clear signs of easing, with headlines emerging by the hour. Despite this, US equity markets have largely shrugged off risk-off sentiment, although they have pulled back from their intraday highs. Tonight, between 19:00 and 20:00 ET, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest rate decision. While no rate hike is expected, markets will b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDJPY hasn’t failed to generate some volatility in the past few weeks. The pair, which had seen some steep up moves since the beginning of July, has been met by some sharp realities for its bulls. Such Daily ranges are strong, and without weekly closes or a substantial fundamental change, Technicals indicate that they are expected to hold. In today’s analysis, however, we will try to spot if anything from the new situation emerging in Japan has the potential to create a real upside breakout or if the range is deemed to continue. Also we'll be monitoring the effect of the ISM PMI results on the pair – Services PMI Came in with a beat (55.2 vs 53.0 exp) and Manufacturi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The most volatile major currency pair delivered another textbook session, marked by two-handle swings over consecutive days. After a brief show of strength, the U.S. Dollar resumed its broader decline against most major currencies. The post-war reversal was continued further after today's speech from Fed Chair Powell at the US Congress, in which he offered no fresh signals regarding a rate cut at the July 30 FOMC meeting—a message that markets are watching closely. The absence of new dovish guidance was interpreted as a continuation of the current policy stance, prompting traders to resume the prevailing bearish trend on the Greenback. The Japanese Yen, which had underp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDJPY has been the most affected major pair since the US Dollar reversal that happened since July 1st, rising to a maximum of 6464 pips (around 4.50%), a consequential move in Forex. Beyond the position covering due to oversold and overpositions US Dollars adding to a conclusion of a weekly Head and Shoulders in the Dollar Index, Yen traders haven't been able to find any fundamental reason to be long that currency. Japan's monetary policy, despite being more hawkish than the past 20 years, is still loose – especially compared to the US which keeps pushing back their cuts (strong data obliges). Furthermore, a lack of new communication from the Bank of Japan is also cons…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USDJPY, one of the most volatile FX pairs is still holding within a tight range as traders turn to metals with Gold making new all-time highs and Silver racing towards a fresh record. FED's Waller appeared with comments this morning, foreshadowing a Rate cut at the upcoming 18th of September FOMC Meeting but the outlook for the pace of cuts is still uncertain. As mentioned in our most recent USDJPY piece, the Bank of Japan would rather the Federal Reserve to move first to reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan which is detrimental to the Yen and hurting Japanese citizens' buying power. As a matter of fact, BoJ Governor Ueda met Japan's Prime Min…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Good morning for the North-American readers and nice start to the week to everyone. The ongoing Forex session is a very calm one, as most traders brace for the upcoming US CPI data release tomorrow, with the most moving currency in the day being the AUD and NZD seeing some selling. France is also celebrating their National Day! (Bonne fête aux compatriotes !) Other markets have however seen some movements: the Singapore STI has been making records highs on its 6th consecutive sessionBitcoin hit highs of $123,000Orange Juice Futures are squeezing again (up above 18% on the session, +50% since July) Let's prepare for tomorrow's huge number by taking a look at where we sta…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenA test of the 152.87 level occurred when the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar, which resulted in a 35-pip rise in the pair. The Japanese yen remained under pressure after additional U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about inflation yesterday, preferring a more cautious position on interest rates. The market reacted instantly to such rhetoric: the yen—already influenced by the dovish political stance of the new Prime Minister—faced additional selling pressure. The future direction of the USD/JPY pair will depend on how closely al…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
