Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, and even fewer are significant. Essentially, only the durable goods orders report in the United States can be highlighted. This report is important because these goods are expensive and, therefore, reflect long-term expectations and confidence among American consumers. Additionally, a secondary indicator of unemployment claims will be released, which is unlikely to attract serious interest. In the European Union and the UK, event calendars are empty today. Analysis of Fundamental Events: There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Wednesday. In the European Uni…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are significant. Essentially, the entire macroeconomic background of the day boils down to a single consumer confidence index in Germany. Clearly, this report is likely to provoke at best a very minor market reaction and will not impact the broader picture. In the UK, the European Union, and the U.S., event calendars are empty today. Analysis of Fundamental Events: There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Wednesday. In the European Union, speeches by European Central Bank representatives Cipollone, de Guindos, and Machado will take…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, all from Germany. It is important to remember that Germany is considered the "locomotive" of the European economy—a "locomotive" that has been struggling in recent years. Therefore, reports from Germany on key indicators can be considered conditionally important. Today, data on unemployment, inflation, and retail sales will be published. These will not be released all at once, so throughout the first half of the day, the market may react to the incoming information. Analysis of Fundamental Events: No fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. However, recent speec…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Report: There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday, and some are important. Today, the business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US will be released as final estimates for October. Recall that second estimates have minimal impact on market sentiment, but the ISM business activity index will be published in the US, which is reported only in one estimate. Therefore, all attention will be on this. Analysis of Fundamental Events: There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Monday. In particular, there are speeches from FOMC members Mary Daly and Lisa Cook. H…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, and on Monday, even significant reports did not provoke any market reaction, let alone the expected movements. Both currency pairs remain "at the bottom" but show no desire to move upward, even within the framework of a correction. Therefore, today, with an effectively absent macroeconomic backdrop, strong trending movements are unlikely—unless Donald Trump throws in another "information bomb." Analysis of Fundamental Events: There are several fundamental events scheduled for Tuesday, but they do not generate much interest. In the morning, Christine Lagarde, the Presi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. In the European Union, there are no significant releases, while in the United States, only the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is on the agenda. Recall that the first week of each month is typically when labor market data from the U.S. is published, including unemployment, job vacancies, and wages. However, for the second consecutive month, this data has not been released due to the ongoing "shutdown," which has now set a record for its duration. Thus, it remains extremely difficult to assess the current state of the U.S. labor market. Fundamental Events Ove…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Wednesday. The most important among them are the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and euro area inflation. It's worth noting that although inflation no longer has a major direct impact on ECB monetary policy decisions, a high reading could significantly reduce the likelihood of further rate cuts — and perhaps even increase the chance of future rate hikes. Therefore, high inflation in the eurozone is considered a positive factor for the euro. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a critical standalone indicator. Also scheduled for release in the U.S. is the ADP employment report. However, trader…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered significant. There are no reports planned in the UK or Germany. In the eurozone, only the unemployment rate will be published, and in the U.S., weekly jobless claims are scheduled. All of these reports are considered secondary and are likely to trigger only a mild market reaction. As a result, both currency pairs, which have recently shown lackluster movements, may experience low volatility and range-bound behavior today. Fundamental Events Analysis: Very few fundamental events are expected on Thursday — just a few speeches from European Cent…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: One macroeconomic report is scheduled for Monday. The Ifo business climate index will be released in Germany. It goes without saying that this is an entirely secondary report, and the market has been ignoring global fundamental factors and significant macroeconomic reports in recent weeks. Therefore, the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to be extremely weak today. Analysis of Fundamental Events: No fundamental events are scheduled for Monday either. Even the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings planned for this week are generating little interest. It is evident to all traders that the U.S. central bank will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Review of Macroeconomic Reports: One macroeconomic report is scheduled for Tuesday. Germany will release the consumer confidence index from GfK, which holds roughly the same value for traders as yesterday's business climate report. In recent weeks, the market has been ignoring factors related to the global fundamental backdrop and much more significant macroeconomic reports. Therefore, the consumer confidence index is unlikely to provoke any market reaction. The calendars for the UK, Eurozone, and the U.S. are empty today. Review of Fundamental Events: No fundamental events are scheduled for Tuesday either. This week, the European Central Bank and the Feder…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Review of Macroeconomic Reports: There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday. While at least secondary reports were published in Germany on Monday and Tuesday (which did not provoke any market reaction), there will be none on Wednesday. The only event of the day is the Federal Reserve meeting, accompanied by a press conference with Jerome Powell. Review of Fundamental Events: There will only be one fundamental event on Wednesday. For obvious reasons, representatives of the Fed and the European Central Bank cannot provide comments or interviews on the economy or monetary policy right now, so today the focus should be solely on the Fed meeting.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Reports Overview: There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. Therefore, throughout the day, traders will only be able to react to fundamental events — and there will be quite a few of those. However, central bank officials' speeches are barely moving the market at this point for several reasons: First, policymakers are not providing any fundamentally new information.Second, the monetary policy outlooks for all three major central banks are already fairly clear to the market.Key Fundamental Events to Watch: Although macroeconomic data is absent, Tuesday features several key events. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank President Chri…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Review: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled again for Wednesday. Only the US Producer Price Index (PPI) stands out. Last month, this indicator posted a sensational figure of +0.9% against a forecast of 0.3%, which triggered a strong market reaction. However, in most cases, the actual value for this indicator differs little from the estimates. Therefore, today, a market reaction is only possible in the case of a second consecutive strong deviation. No important publications are scheduled today for the Eurozone, Germany, or the UK. Fundamental Events Review: There is absolutely nothing to highlight among fundamental events on Wednesda…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Review: There are a few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Thursday. However, in the United States, an important August inflation report will be published, which could provoke a strong market reaction if it prints a surprise figure. Any value outside the 2.7–2.9% range would be considered a substantial surprise. Lower-than-expected inflation (relative to previous readings and forecasts) could trigger a dollar sell-off. Higher inflation would support the US currency. No important releases are planned today in the UK, Germany, or the Eurozone. Fundamental Events Review: Among Thursday's fundamental events, the European Central Bank meeting a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are a lot of macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, which is rather unusual. In Germany, a second, relatively minor estimate for August inflation will be released. In the UK, there will be low-importance monthly reports on GDP and industrial production. In the US, there's the not-so-important University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. In all cases, significant market reaction is only possible if there is a serious deviation from forecasted values. Fundamental Events Analysis: There is nothing notable among fundamental events for Friday. The ECB meeting was just yesterday, so the market has already absorbed all nece…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday—not in Germany, the UK, the EU, or the US. Recall that during the first two weeks of September, traders had a fairly rich flow of macroeconomic data at their disposal. Almost all of them showed that the US economy continues to deteriorate. Only GDP is rising, and that's artificially. How much longer it will keep growing on the back of Trump's trade war is unknown. In any case, market participants have a low opinion of the results delivered by the new US administration. Fundamental Events Analysis: The only fundamental event on Monday is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. H…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are plenty of macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday. None of these is extremely important, but each carries some weight and may impact the market. The U.K. unemployment rate is on the rise. The higher it goes, the more the Bank of England will need to cut rates. But inflation, which is also rising, prevents it from doing so. Inflation remains the more critical metric. Jobless claims and wage data are less important. In the Eurozone today, industrial production will be published; in Germany, the ZEW economic expectations index; in the U.S., industrial production and retail sales. All of these may provoke reactions if actual f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but it's worth reminding novice traders that yesterday's calendar was also full of data—yet none of it had any impact on the dollar, euro, or pound. So a similar situation might occur today. For instance, what should we expect from the second estimate of eurozone inflation, when this reading already has almost no impact on the ECB? US construction and real estate data are unlikely to be more important than industrial production and retail sales, which the market ignored yesterday. Thus, the only data of real interest is the UK inflation report. Fundamental Events Analys…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are significant. The most important reports this week have already been released in the U.K., while at the end of the week, traders will be entirely focused on the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed announced the results of its meeting yesterday evening, but throughout today, both currency pairs may remain under the pressure of that event. The Fed meeting will overlap with today's BoE meeting, which will undoubtedly keep the key rate unchanged, but at the same time could trigger either a rise or a decline in the pound, as the m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. The only report worth noting is UK Retail Sales. This release could trigger a minor market reaction—but only if the actual figure deviates significantly from the forecast. Overall, the market may take a breather today after two very active days featuring two central bank meetings and a key inflation report out of the UK. Fundamental Events Analysis: There is absolutely nothing notable on the fundamental calendar for Friday. The European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England meetings have all concluded, providing the market with all the necessary information for f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but some of them are truly important. Most notably, the US reports on durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. The third estimate is the final one, and the first and second releases are often revised—thus, the last release carries the most weight. The durable goods report is also significant, as it reflects changes in US consumer demand for major, high-value goods. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index will be published, but this is far from the most critical release. Fundamental Events Analysis: Among Thursday's fundamental events, Federal Res…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but some of them may trigger a market reaction. First and foremost, attention should be paid to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Many consider the PCE index to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, though we don't necessarily agree. Besides, significant deviations from forecasts for the PCE are extremely rare. Thus, in both cases, a market reaction is likely only if the actual readings significantly diverge from expectations. Fundamental Events Analysis: Among Friday'…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: No significant macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Both the euro and the pound are recovering after declines seen over the past one and a half to two weeks. We believe the macroeconomic and fundamental background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we expect the bearish trend in both currency pairs to come to an end, with European currencies likely resuming their upward movement. Fundamental Events Analysis: Today's calendar is full of speeches rather than data. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank representatives Cipollone, Kazaks, Muller, Schnabel, and Chief Economist Philip Lane are scheduled to spe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are several macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday, with most of them originating from Germany. German data is important for the euro, as Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone. However, it is still only one country out of 27, so market reactions to German reports are usually limited. Today's reports include retail sales, unemployment rate, changes in the number of unemployed, and inflation. Naturally, the most important release is inflation, which may rise to 2.3%. The higher the inflation, the better for the euro, since this reduces the likelihood of another round of monetary easing by the European Central Bank. In …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Review: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday. However, the single report that will be released could trigger a new storm in the market. We are talking about the annual Nonfarm Payrolls. Clearly, this report is much more important than the monthly data, and the figures for the last four months suggest that a favorable outcome is unlikely. Thus, today the market may get new grounds to sell the dollar. Fundamental Events Review: Fundamental events on Tuesday include speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank, but as we have previously discussed, there is no suspense regardi…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
