Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11862 tópicos neste fórum
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Powell laid out in his post-meeting press conference and what has already been echoed in recent speeches by other Fed officials. Persistent uncertainty around trade policy, risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate (employment and inflation), and the ongoing debate about which side presents the greater medium-term risk are keeping the FOMC in wait-and-see mode. So far, nothing in the incoming data through early May appears to have shifted the Fed’s stance or prompted a lean toward any specific policy path. Participants agreed that with growth and the labor market remaining solid, and policy already moderately restrictive, the Fed is well positioned to stay patient. Th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The FOMC Minutes for the September meeting just got released. Overall, the minutes largely reinforced what markets had priced in: the Fed sees room to ease, but is willing to wait for clearer signs. (They might have trouble to do so with the incumbent Government shutdown preventing data releases) There has been some mentions of the current financial conditions being "not particularly restrictive" and some more upside risks to Employment – As the Fed looks to focus more on Employment looking forward, "upside risks" can be considered dovish. Nonetheless, many members did emphasize "upside risks to their outlook for inflation" which puts up Neutral Rate estimates on the l…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. At first glance, today's reports may seem high-status; however, this week has seen the release of much more significant data. Virtually all of them had no impact on the overall market picture. Both currency pairs continue to move higher in line with local trends, with quite low volatility. Therefore, it is unlikely that anything will change in the market today. In the Eurozone, the third-quarter GDP will be released in its third estimate. This estimate is unlikely to differ significantly from the first two, nor is it expected to provide much assistance to the euro. The Eurozone e…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, including important reports. Unfortunately, many significant reports and events have been ignored by the market over the past month. A prime example is the important ISM manufacturing index published in the U.S. on Monday, which showed a resonant but weak value, yet we did not see any decline in the dollar. A similar fate might befall today's ADP and ISM reports for the services sector, which are the most important for Wednesday. In the Eurozone, Germany, and the UK, service sector activity indices will be published in their second assessments for October, but these are abso…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. Germany will release its industrial production report for September, while the Eurozone will publish retail sales data for September. It is important to remind novice traders that on Monday and Wednesday, the market ignored much more significant ISM activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors from the U.S., as well as the only labor market report currently published—the ADP report. Market movements remain purely technical. Analysis of Fundamental Events: Many fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday, but only one is truly significant. The Bank of…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Review: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, as has been the case throughout the entire current week. Essentially, the only notable economic data so far was Germany's industrial production, which once again showed extremely weak — in fact, negative — results. That's all we've really seen. Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released in the United States. It's not a particularly important indicator, and this week's market behavior has shown that traders don't care about the reasons they're buying the U.S. dollar — the same dollar that was aggressively sold off over the past eight months. Fundamen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Data Overview: There are no macroeconomic releases scheduled for Monday. As a result, we are likely to see a typical "quiet Monday" with low volatility and no intraday trend movement. However, we remind you that on Friday, Donald Trump announced a new round of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, and traders had very little time to price in this event. Therefore, today the U.S. dollar may continue to weaken. Fundamental Events Overview: Two fundamental events are scheduled for today: In the United States: a speech by Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee member Lawrence PaulsonIn the Eurozone: a speech by European Central Bank representative Cl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Summary: Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Tuesday. In Germany, the final estimate of September inflation will be published. It should be noted that the second reading is almost always a formality. Additionally, ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone will be released. While these are considered important indicators, we do not expect a strong market reaction. In the United Kingdom, the most interesting and significant reports will be released: unemployment, jobless claims, and wage growth figures. If the data are neutral and in line with forecasts, traders are unlikely to react. However, any surprising or extrem…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. The only notable report is industrial production in the Eurozone, which is once again unlikely to impress traders with a strong result. However, expectations for this indicator are already quite low, so exceeding them may be relatively easy. No other significant reports are expected throughout the day. Fundamental Event Overview: Several fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday, but several important points should be noted straight away. Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde have both spoken frequently in recent weeks. As a result, the market now has a clear under…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Review: There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. The most noteworthy will come from the United Kingdom, although even these are not expected to have a major impact. In roughly an hour, the UK will release data on industrial production and gross domestic product. However, the GDP figure will be monthly rather than quarterly. Markets tend to place more weight on quarterly and annual data. As for industrial production, it is not seen as a top-tier indicator among traders. Nevertheless, both reports could trigger a market reaction simply because no other significant data is scheduled for the day. In the Eurozone and the United St…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Overview: Once again, Friday's calendar contains very few macroeconomic reports. In earlier reports, we mentioned that there were no releases scheduled at all, but that isn't entirely accurate. Today, the eurozone will publish its second estimate for September inflation. However, this is a secondary report: second estimates almost always match the initial reading and are not marked as "high-impact." Beyond that, there are no notable releases scheduled in the U.K., Germany, or the U.S. Fundamental Event Overview: A number of fundamental events are scheduled again for Friday, but nearly all of them are insignificant in terms of market im…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Overview: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Therefore, today, traders may only monitor speeches by Donald Trump and little else. Even speeches by central bank representatives currently carry minimal significance, as markets have a clear understanding of what to expect in the near future. The only remaining uncertainty relates to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, though even that is relatively minor. Fundamental Event Overview: Few fundamental events are scheduled for Monday, and almost none of them are generating any interest. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous speeches from representatives of…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Overview: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. As such, traders are once again left to monitor comments from Donald Trump. However, the market has recently been largely indifferent to the U.S. President's remarks. Even speeches by central bank officials are currently having little impact, as markets already have a clear understanding of what to expect from monetary policymakers in the near future. The only moderate area of uncertainty lies in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, but even that remains relatively limited. Fundamental Event Overview: Very few fundamental events are scheduled for Tuesday, and nearly…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday. Only in the United Kingdom will an inflation report for September be published in about an hour. Expert forecasts suggest that the Consumer Price Index will rise to 4.0%, which is double the Bank of England's target level. We believe that with such a level of inflation (or higher), which has also been rising for a whole year, there can be no talk of a new key rate cut. Thus, rising inflation may support the British currency. In Germany, the European Union, and the United States, no important reports are scheduled for today. Fundamental Event Analysis: Few funda…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday—again. The only data point worth mentioning is the secondary report on U.S. existing home sales. Interestingly, this report may elicit a reaction from traders simply due to the absence of any other relevant data or events. Volatility across both currency pairs remains near zero. The flat trend on the daily time frame persists. Irregular and illogical intraday price movements continue. Fundamental Event Analysis: Very few fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday. The only item of note is a speech by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane. However, consid…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A considerable number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. In fact, today is the first day this week when traders will have anything significant to focus on. Therefore, there is no doubt that today's movements will be more volatile. The nature of movement for both currency pairs will depend on the actual reports. Business activity indices (PMIs) in the services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The UK will also publish retail sales data, and in the U.S., the most critical report of the week—CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data—will be an…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Reports: There aren't many macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, and only one of them is truly important – the ISM Services PMI in the U.S. In addition to this index, we'll also see second estimates of services PMIs for Germany, the UK, and the EU, as well as the Producer Price Index in the EU. However, these reports are of secondary importance. Also, the NonFarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate were supposed to be released today, but most likely that won't happen due to the U.S. government "shutdown" that began on October 1. Therefore, all attention today will be on the ISM Services PMI. Fundamental Events Overview: Several key…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Data Overview: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Only two data points are worth noting: Retail Sales in the Eurozone and Construction PMI in the United Kingdom. However, both fall far short of being top-tier releases. Consequently, we do not expect any strong or lasting market reactions to these reports. At the same time, the U.S. dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to resume its decline. Fundamental Events Overview: There will be several noteworthy events on Monday. In the United Kingdom, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. Bailey rarely appears in the public spotlight, so while any …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Overview: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and all of them are secondary in nature. In Germany, import, export, and trade balance data will be released; however, these figures are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on trader sentiment. It may seem like yesterday's disappointing industrial production report from Germany triggered the euro's decline, but in reality, the euro stopped falling right after that data was published. Economic calendars for the UK, the Eurozone, and the U.S. remain largely empty today. Fundamental Events Breakdown: There is only one major fundamental event on Thursday — but it is a signific…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Aster Exchange said it has reimbursed users after a sudden price glitch sent the XPL perpetual contract soaring and wiped out leveraged positions. According to reports, the contract’s mark price briefly decoupled from markets on September 25, 2025, jumping from about $1.30 to nearly $4 on Aster while XPL elsewhere stayed near $1.30. The mismatch forced mass liquidations on the platform. Aster Issues Refunds According to Aster’s public messages and follow-up reports, the exchange moved fast to cover losses. Refunds were paid in USDT to accounts hit by the abnormal moves. A second round of payments covered trading and liquidation fees as well. One analysis put the total…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A Mike Selig-led push in Washington could split crypto oversight between two friendlier cops, CFTC on spot markets and an SEC that finally defines what is (and isn’t) a security. Mike Selig, President Trump’s pick to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, will appear before the Senate Agriculture Committee on November 19 for his confirmation hearing in Washington. Congress is moving forward with a bill that would give the CFTC primary authority over digital-asset spot markets. The effort, led by Senators John Boozman and Cory Booker, runs in parallel with new rulemaking at the SEC under Chair Paul Atkins. Will Mike Selig’s Appointment Redefine the SEC-CFTC Po…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Biden administration has begun developing a contingency plan in case the U.S. Supreme Court overturns most of the trade tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. It is worth noting that two American courts (the Trade Court and the Appeals Court) have already ruled that Trump's tariffs are illegal and that his actions exceeded presidential authority. However, neither court has taken responsibility for the complete annulment of the tariffs. Local courts have decided to pass the burden of choice and responsibility to the highest authority—the Supreme Court. The first hearing on this matter has already taken place. Interestingly, the initial session concluded with the Supreme Cour…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
MicroStrategy is still the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sitting on roughly 649,870 BTC as of mid-November 2025. They bought all of this for around 48.37 billion dollars total, which puts their average cost at about 74,433 dollars per Bitcoin. With Bitcoin dipping under 80k, things are starting to look uncomfortable for Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. There is also a real risk that the company could be removed from the Nasdaq-100 Index, which is what QQQ and many tech-focused ETFs track. Why? Because MSCI, one of the biggest index providers in the world, opened a consultation on whether companies whose digital assets (like Bitcoin) make up more than roughly h…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
History repeats itself. Sometimes it seems almost like a copy. The EUR/USD pair has fallen for five consecutive trading days. This marks the longest losing streak since July. In both mid-summer and late autumn, we see very similar processes taking place. A strong U.S. economy has prompted the futures market to lower the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while the political crisis in France has pressured the euro. Additionally, the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Brussels has raised doubts about the Eurozone's bright future. There are, of course, differences. The government of Elisabeth Borne is still holding together, unlike that of Francois Bay…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Updated for 2025] Silver is categorized among a group of valuable commodities such as Gold, palladium, and platinum– these precious metals are valued for their inherent use case and rarity. This has made them good enough to become a store of value for today’s currencies. Thus, they drive their demand for their unique characteristics and scarcity. Compared to other commodities, Silver and the rest often have constant prices, which are subject to periodic fluctuations depending on different market dynamics. Briefly, we will be looking at what Silver will be worth in 10 years. There’s been a lull in the value of precious metals like Gold and Silver for the last twelve…
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