Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11893 tópicos neste fórum
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Overview: The US dollar is mostly consolidating in quiet turnover against the G10 currencies to start the new week, which is widely expected to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow and there is speculation that it may signal its next move is a hike. The Bank of Canada is on hold. The Swiss National Bank is reluctant to take its deposit rate, which is now at zero, back into negative territory. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Both the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan, which made new highs for the year last week, are consolidating at slightly lower levels. Of note, the Thai baht is the strongest among …
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It’s no secret that the Trump Administration has been looking to expand America’s critical mineral supply, with a specific focus on reducing reliance on imports and strengthening domestic production. One of the top among multiple administrative initiatives is the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), which allocated $7.5 billion to the industry. This bill presents an unprecedented opportunity for companies seeking to contribute to the country’s domestic supply chain of critical minerals – a positive move for grid infrastructure, storage solutions and electrification projects that rely on the availability of critical minerals downstream. However, what’s outlined in the bill…
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The euro seems to be in a state of flux, swinging from highs to lows. The rollercoaster ride for EUR/USD is driven not by expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting but by events in Europe. The split within the Christian Democratic Union has cooled the bulls' fervor in the main currency pair, while the 1.8% increase in German industrial production in November has allowed buyers to mount a new offensive. The same applies to comments from European Central Bank officials. Dynamics of German Industrial Production The struggle between the "hawks" and "doves" of the Federal Reserve has so impressed the Governing Council members that they have recalled the varying opinions…
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This week, an event could be the "turning point of the second half of 2025" or "the main disappointment of December." As a reminder, on September 17, the Federal Reserve resumed its monetary policy easing cycle and lowered the interest rate again at the October meeting. Let's turn to history to see how the market reacted to the U.S. central bank's "dovish" decisions. On September 17, the rate was lowered, and the EUR/USD instrument began forming a new downward wave set. On October 28, the rate was lowered by 25 basis points again, and the EUR/USD instrument began building a new downward wave. The next meeting will take place on December 10, and the Fed is likely to lower …
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On Monday, the GBP/USD pair was confidently holding around 1.3325, slightly below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3329. This positioning is linked to investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's decision following its two-day meeting concerning interest rates. This situation has allowed the U.S. dollar to maintain stability in the G10 currency markets. The pair is currently testing an important resistance zone as market participants await the central bank's decision. On Wednesday, the Fed is set to announce its final monetary policy decision of the year. Traders are pricing in an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Many analysts suggest t…
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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated again below the 1.1645–1.1656 level, which allowed for expectations of a small decline. The bears managed to deliver a slight drop, but by Tuesday morning the euro had returned to the 1.1645–1.1656 level. Thus, today another rebound from this zone will again favor the U.S. dollar and a moderate decline toward the support level of 1.1594–1.1607. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1645–1.1656 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and straightforward. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous wave's low, whi…
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GreenRoc Mining Plc (AIM: GROC) jumped on Tuesday after the Greenland-focused critical minerals explorer secured a 30-year exploitation licence for its Amitsoq graphite project, paving the way for its production. Greenland’s business and mineral resources minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, signed off on the licence earlier this week, marking the third such permit granted by the Arctic island this year. “(The) exploitation licence is the result of focused political efforts to make Greenland more attractive for responsible investments, while seriously taking into account the concerns for people and the environment,” Nathanielsen said in a statement. Stefan Bernstein,…
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Bitcoin’s on-exchange supply has dropped sharply, and traders are taking note. According to Santiment, more than 403,000 BTC have left exchanges since December 7, 2024 — roughly 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That shift, measured against an on-exchange balance of about 2.11 million BTC in late November, is being seen as a sign that fewer coins are poised for quick sale. Exchange Balances Shrink Santiment said lower exchange balances have historically been linked with fewer sudden sell-offs, an observation many market watchers find encouraging. The math is straightforward: when a big chunk of supply sits outside exchanges, there is less immediately available stock to me…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Thus, throughout the day, traders will have nothing to react to. Only late in the evening will the FOMC meeting results be announced, which will certainly provoke a storm of emotions in the market and significant volatility. Analysis of Fundamental Events: Several fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday. Of course, the FOMC meeting stands out as the only event of the day, broken into several parts. The decision on the interest rate can be considered already made – a 0.25% decrease. However, in addition to the rate, traders will learn about the FOMC's plans for 20…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday the market, from the 1.1625 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may start moving upward toward 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly pull back downward toward 1.1640 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – downward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: an upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.1625 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may b…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday the market, from the 1.3293 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may possibly begin moving upward toward 1.3367 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.3355 – the upper fractal (daily candle of December 9, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – upward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: an upward trend. Alternative scenario: On Wednesday the market, from the 1.3293 level (yesterday's daily candl…
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Twenty One Capital is having a rough day today. The crypto treasury firm made its big Wall Street debut yesterday, and so far, it does not look pretty. The stock, trading under the ticker XXI, dropped more than 24% on its opening day and closed at $10.80. For the uninitiated, Twenty One Capital is basically a massive crypto vault majority-owned by Tether, the crypto exchange Bitfinex, with the Japanese technology investor SoftBank owning a smaller slice. The trio went public with this project through a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) deal backed by Cantor Fitzgerald. Cantor is an investment banking and brokerage firm, currently chaired by Brandon Lutnick, the…
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Rep. Keith Self, a Republican from Texas, filed a last-minute amendment to the Must-Pass $900 billion US Defence Bill that would ban the Federal Reserve from creating or piloting a US central bank digital currency (CBDC). On 9 December 2025, the Republican took to X to say, “Promises were broken to include this language in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). My amendment would fix the bill.” Self’s “Anti-CBDC Surveillance State” proposal would bar the Fed from testing, developing or launching any CBDC. He submitted an amendment to add a full ban on CBDCs to the 2026 NDAA. He argued that the earlier leadership promises to include similar language were broken in…
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Less than two hours to the December FOMC! Time is ticking before the FOMC meeting, and volatility has stayed remarkably contained in Stocks—a stark contrast to the Oil market, which saw its price battered again in today's session. Still, the Dow Jones is outperforming its peers, so traders are expecting a positive outlook for the Industrial index – Watch out for bad surprises! What is certain is that things should start moving heavily towards the afternoon. With today's FOMC meeting also releasing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)—including the famous "Dot Plot"—expect a wave of repricing as traders scramble to explore the different scenarios for 2026, partic…
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Solana’s (SOL) market structure is entering a tense phase, shaped by thinning liquidity, elevated leverage, and conflicting signals across institutional flows and derivatives markets. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling While price movements remain within familiar ranges, the underlying conditions paint a more complex picture, one that traders are watching closely for signs of either exhaustion or a sharp reversal. Recent sessions have seen Solana drift between $128 and $145, with brief rebounds lifting it toward the upper end of this range. However, liquidity indicators suggest a deeper reset is taking sha…
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The name of the new Federal Reserve Chair, who will take office in May 2026, is effectively already known. At least, economists do not doubt that it will be current Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett. So far, Donald Trump has appointed only one governor to the FOMC—Stephen Miran. Mr. Miran has immediately begun to fully utilize the leverage given to him. At each meeting, he proudly votes for a 50-basis-point easing of the Fed's monetary policy all by himself. Therefore, many expect Hassett to also start making "ultra-dovish" statements, signaling what to expect from the Fed in 2026. However, Hassett holds a different position. He verbally supports Jerome Powell and the …
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Ethereum is trading with renewed strength after breaking above the $3,300 level and briefly pushing toward $3,400, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. However, despite this recovery, bullish conviction remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that the broader trend still leans bearish, emphasizing that Ethereum has yet to reclaim the structural levels needed to confirm a macro reversal. Yet one signal has captured significant attention: according to fresh data from Lookonchain, a major whale known as BitcoinOG has doubled down on his Ethereum long position. This trader is widely recognized for being the whale who successfully shorted Bitcoin durin…
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A noted Bitcoin adviser has warned that Shiba Inu faces an uphill climb unless it retakes a prior support band, a call that has stirred debate across crypto social channels. According to posts by BingX Bitcoin adviser Nebraskan Gooner, the token must return above a horizontal region he marked between $0.000014 and $0.00001 to avoid a “dead” outlook. Key Support Level Under Scrutiny Gooner’s chart points to a multi-year zone that once acted as firm support. Reports show SHIB touched that band and later surged to about $0.000045 in early March 2024. The importance of the area is highlighted by the token’s price action: it has spent much of Q4 2025 below that range, and …
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Analysis of Trades on Wednesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair moved exactly as most traders expected on Wednesday. It is worth noting that the market does not always react clearly or logically to the FOMC meeting results. Yesterday indeed could have been such a case, as in recent months the dollar has responded to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing with growth. However, this time the dollar fell despite the Fed's promise to pause rate cuts in 2026. Overall, as most experts had anticipated, the key rate was lowered for the third consecutive time, but it was done in advance. There is still no macroeconomic data on the labor market, unemplo…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only report to note is the weekly jobless claims in the US, which is straightforwardly a secondary report. Recall that this week saw the release of the ADP employment report and the JOLTS open vacancies report. These are much more significant reports, but the market reacted weakly to them, as it continues to await important reports such as Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rates, and consumer price indexes, which will be published next week. Analysis of Fundamental Events: No fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday. However, traders will not la…
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ETH/USD (Ethereum) is trading around $3,194 below the 21 SMA and around the 200 EMA, showing overbought levels and undergoing a strong technical correction after reaching the 3/8 Murray. After reaching the top of the uptrend channel and the 3/8 Murray zone, both levels acted as strong resistance. Unable to find more demand above $3,437, Ether made a sharp technical correction and is now likely to continue falling in the coming days until it reaches the psychological level of $3,000. If ETH/USD consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA in the coming hours, we can expect a recovery, and it could return to the 3/8 Murray resistance zone and even reach its weekly hi…
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The market got what it wanted. The Fed executed a hawkish cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% and signaling a pause in the cycle of monetary easing. However, the central bank did not close the door on further easing. Moreover, Jerome Powell's emphasis on labor market weakness and the Fed's decision-making dependence on data make monetary expansion in 2026 quite likely. This was well received by US stock indices, with the S&P 500 registering its strongest reaction to an FOMC meeting since March, while the Russell 2000 reached a new record high. S&P 500's Reaction to Fed Meetings The stock market benefited from a triple advantage provided by the Fed. No…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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An experiment in Prague might end up mattering more for Bitcoin than the usual ETF inflow chart. Speaking on the “Crypto In America” show on 10 December, Coinbase Head of Institutional John D’Agostino highlighted that the Czech National Bank has begun testing Bitcoin in its national treasury and for payments, and argued that this sort of move by a Eurozone central bank is likely to spread. Czech Bitcoin Pilot Could Spread Across Eurozone “The Czech national bank chose very well in their service providers,” he said, adding that the central bank is “putting Bitcoin on their national treasury and they are experimenting with and learning in real time using Bitcoin for payme…
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Gemini has received regulatory clearance to launch prediction markets in the US. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license to Gemini Titan – a subsidiary of Gemini Space Station. What does this mean for US customers? It allows US customers to trade event contracts, simple yes/no bets on future outcomes, directly on Gemini’s web platform using USD balances. Gemini now joins the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. On 10 December 2025, Gemini’s CEO Tyler Winklevoss said, “Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini.” “We thank President Trump for en…
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