Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11893 tópicos neste fórum
-
While the euro has remained in a sideways range over the past week, the British pound has been swinging back and forth for months. These fluctuations don't significantly impact the wave layout, but the structure is becoming more complex and increasingly difficult to use effectively in short-term trading. That said, the upward trend segment continues to develop, and the fundamental backdrop still favors buyers—this much is clear. In the new week, it will be difficult for the pound to find strong support from the domestic UK news cycle. But that's not necessarily a problem. First, even the current set of news may be enough for the market to resume buying activity. Second, t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This week, the market's attention will once again be focused—if not entirely, then almost entirely—on the U.S. dollar. More precisely, on the U.S. news cycle surrounding the dollar. Let's recall that last week marked the beginning of a government shutdown, and a new vote in the Senate to extend funding deadlines failed. Republicans are still a few votes short of passing the budget for the next fiscal year. As a result, it's currently impossible to say with certainty when the shutdown will end. Meanwhile, the shutdown continues to evolve with increasingly complex political baggage. Democrats still demand that social and healthcare programs not be cut, effectively pushing f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Dark times are ahead for EUR/USD traders—and for all dollar-based pairs. The continued U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of official economic data. For instance, last week was supposed to bring September's Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, but traders had to settle for the ADP report, which does not cover government employees or several other non-agricultural sectors. This week, key inflation metrics (CPI/PPI) are scheduled for release, but they are unlikely to be published unless Congress unexpectedly reopens the government. If the shutdown continues—which remains the most likely scenario—EUR/USD traders will be forced to operate in a state of information vacuum. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Why is crypto up today? Crypto is green to start the week as Bitcoin’s fresh all-time high and a softer dollar lift risk appetite, while SPX, FARTCOIN, and AIC headline Sunday’s biggest movers ahead of FOMC. The crypto market gained ground over the past 24 hours, led by meme and AI-linked tokens after Bitcoin set a new record above $125,000 on Sunday. As total crypto capitalization edged higher, SPX6900 (SPX), FARTCOIN, and AI Companions (AIC) stood out among the top performers. Their gains tracked renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a weaker dollar that lifted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eased toward 97.7 late last week, giving r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP has defended support at $2.90 and made several attempts to push above $3.10 over the past week. Although XRP bulls have managed to hold above $3, the cryptocurrency hasn’t really followed rallies witnessed by Bitcoin and Ethereum in the past 24 hours. Nonethless, XRP’s price action in the past few days has caused its price chart to print a new technical setup that has previously marked the beginning of significant rallies, and history might repeat itself again. Bullish XRP Technical Signal Reappears Technical analysis of XRP’s 3-day candlestick chart shows that the cryptocurrency is currently repeating a technical signal which has preceded rallies multiple times t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin price started a strong increase and traded above $124,000. BTC is now consolidating gains and might aim for a fresh rally in the short term. Bitcoin started a major increase above the $123,500 zone. The price is trading above $122,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $123,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $124,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Rally Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $120,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC settled above the $121,500 resistance zone to start the current m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,500. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,620 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,450 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,500 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,490 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,550 and $4,620. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,320 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,450 and $4,500 re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USD/CAD On the daily chart of USD/CAD, a relatively weak, likely corrective divergence has formed. The price reversed from the target level of 1.3977. The MACD line is approaching the 1.3878 level at a steep upward angle. Likely, the intersection point of the MACD line with the target level will create a point of attraction and, at the same time, a potential reversal point for the next upward movement, as illustrated by the dashed line in the chart. A consolidation of the price below the 1.3878 level and also below the MACD line will deepen the decline to the 1.3810 level—either to create a false breakout or for a medium-term downward move. On the four-hour chart, the s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week. The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the start of the new trading week, the British pound attempted to break below the MACD line on the daily chart. However, due to a downside gap at the opening, the momentum was insufficient, and the price returned above the MACD line after briefly breaching it. If today's candlestick closes bullish (white), the price may attempt to break through the key resistance level at 1.3525 again. A successful consolidation above this level would extend the upward movement toward the target at 1.3631—marking the high from June 13. On the four-hour chart, the price is poised to break through the MACD line in an effort to close the gap. On a price rise, the Marlin oscillator woul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis – 5M Chart The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no significant movement on Friday. Even on the hourly time frame, it is clearly visible that the pair remained in a total flat throughout the past week. Only once did the price attempt to break out of the range between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—on Thursday, when the unemployment rate in the Eurozone unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. All other, far more important, data was either ignored by the market or responded to very weakly. And that's a shame. There was plenty to pay attention to last week—starting with the U.S. government shutdown. It's hard to believe such a major event, which doesn't …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis – 5M Chart On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward movement in line with the new uptrend that formed after the last trendline break. However, as with the euro, most of the past week was spent in a flat phase. While less pronounced than in EUR/USD, the pound also failed to break below the critical line—or above the Senkou Span B line, for that matter. Thus, we're still in a flat market. There were no significant events in the UK on Friday. The only noteworthy release was the U.S. ISM Services PMI, which was processed by the market weakly and unconvincingly. On Thursday, for reasons unclear, the pound plummeted despite having…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively calm on Friday. Volatility remained minimal. In fact, the only relatively strong movement of the entire past week occurred on Thursday—ironically, the day with virtually no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events. Only the Eurozone unemployment rate, which unexpectedly climbed to 6.3%, had the theoretical potential to trigger a reaction. However, other days featured far more important data, even excluding the unreleased Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures. Thus, the first conclusion is that last week's price movement had nothing to do with logic. As we've stated many times before, there's no point in trying to r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair posted a slight increase, though volatility remained nearly minimal. The U.S. was expected to release the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data that day, but it had become clear earlier in the week that those reports wouldn't be published due to the ongoing government shutdown, which forced many federal agencies into unpaid leave. However, the ISM Services PMI was released on Friday, and it sharply disappointed, following the same pattern seen earlier with the Manufacturing PMI. Thus, the dollar had significant reasons to fall, yet once again it barely moved, despite ample justification for a decline. As we have stated multiple times…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP price extended gains above $3.00 and $3.050 before correcting gains. The price is now consolidating gains and facing hurdles near the $3.050 level. XRP price is slowly moving higher above the $2.920 support zone. The price is now trading below $3.00 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at $3.050 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $3.050. XRP Price Faces Resistance XRP price started a recovery wave after it found support above $2.80 and $2.820, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.920 and $2.9…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Recap:1H Chart – EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair once again traded in a "neither fish nor fowl" manner. Volatility remained minimal, as it had been throughout the previous week. We reiterate our earlier observation: it was a very strange week. Even without the missing Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports, there were plenty of fundamental and macroeconomic events—and many of them were significant. What explains the lack of volatility and overall reluctance to trade remains unclear. Even Friday's ISM Services PMI, which came in well below forecasts, could have easily triggered a 50–60 pip drop in the dollar. From a technical perspective, the upwar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review1H Chart – GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited a slight bullish movement that didn't affect the overall technical picture. Since breaking the downward trendline, the upward movement has yet to truly begin. As with the euro, this kind of behavior raises many questions. Just last week, the U.S. government experienced a shutdown (a major event clearly weighing on the economy), the only labor market report (ADP) came in extremely weak, and the ISM business activity indices signaled economic slowdown. So, the market currently has plenty of reasons to sell the U.S. dollar—yet it's not happening. Mid-term, GBP still maintains a bullish bias, but …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Data Overview: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Only two data points are worth noting: Retail Sales in the Eurozone and Construction PMI in the United Kingdom. However, both fall far short of being top-tier releases. Consequently, we do not expect any strong or lasting market reactions to these reports. At the same time, the U.S. dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to resume its decline. Fundamental Events Overview: There will be several noteworthy events on Monday. In the United Kingdom, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. Bailey rarely appears in the public spotlight, so while any …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Solana found support near the $205 zone. SOL price is now consolidating gains above $220 and might soon aim for more gains above $232. SOL price started a fresh increase above $215 and $220 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $225 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $227 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another increase if the bulls clear $235 and $242. Solana Price Aims Higher Solana price remained supported above the $215 pivot level and extended gains, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $220 and $225 resistanc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Gold is on the way to new all-time highs, placing the price within a strong upward trend similar to the movement formed on September 11. XAU/USD could continue its rise in the coming hours, reaching 3,963, a level that coincides with the top of the uptrend channel. At current price levels, gold is having a small consolidation. If the price remains above +1/8 Murray in the coming days, we could expect a strong upward acceleration that could push the instrument up to 3,950 and even to the psychological level of $4,000. Conversely, if the gold price falls below the key level of 3,906, we believe it could reach the 21SMA around 3,872 or the bottom of the uptrend channel aroun…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a positive bias around 1.1727. The euro is now above the 8/8 Murray, above the 21SMA, and within an uptrend channel formed on September 25. If the euro consolidates above 1.1700 in the coming hours, we could expect it to close the gap it left around 1.1735 and could even continue rising to reach the top of the uptrend channel around 1.1805. If the uptrend continues, we could expect the EUR/USD pair to reach the +8/8 Murray around 1.1840. On the other hand, if the euro consolidates below 1.1717 and below 8/8 Murray, we can expect a sharp breakout of the uptrend channel, and the price could reach 7/8 Murray aro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin is trading around 123,616, bouncing within the bullish trend channel formed on September 26. Bitcoin could continue rising in the coming hours, reaching 8/8 Murray around $125,000 and could even surpass its high and reach +1/8 Murray around 128,125. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the 21SMA at 122,243, we could expect a trend reversal, and it could reach 6/8 Murray at 118,750. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart has reached the overbought zone. We believe that Bitcoin below the psychological level of $125,000 could undergo a strong technical correction in the coming days and reach 5/8 Murray around 115,316. Our outlook for Bitcoin is positive, so we will look f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure. The main reasons for its weakness include disappointing economic data and the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. since mid-last week. The decline of the ISM Services PMI to the critical 50-point level caused concern among market participants. However, the market appeared to anticipate such a slowdown, further reinforcing expectations of upcoming monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve. With the ISM index hovering near contraction territory, the trend of weakening economic growth is becoming clearer. That said, the market's reaction to the data was restrained, as investors are awaiting more precise signals from the Fed. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Natural Gas] – [Monday, October 06, 2025] With all technical analysis data indicating bullishness, from both EMAs forming a Golden Cross to the RSI being in the Neutral-Bullish level, it is quite likely that Natural Gas will continue its upward momentum today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.507 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.421 3. Pivot : 3.364 4. Support. 1 : 3.278 5. Support. 2 : 3.221 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NG strengthens and breaks out and closes above 3.364, it may move to test the 3.421 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 3.421 is broken and closes above, Natural Gas could continue strengthening up to 3.507. Invalidation Level / Bias …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[XPD/USD] – [Monday, October 06, 2025] With EMA(50) forming a Golden Cross with EMA(200) and the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish area, Palladium has the potential to move higher toward its nearest resistance level today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1303.51 2. Resistance. 1 : 1283.23 3. Pivot : 1260.97 4. Support. 1 : 1240.69 5. Support. 2 : 1218.43 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Palladium strengthens, breaks above, and closes above 1260.97, it may continue to advance to 1283.23. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1283.23 is breached and closes above it, XPD/USD may try to test 1303.51. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias w…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
