Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11893 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the euro The first test of 1.1697 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1697 shortly afterward coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario No. 2 (selling the euro) to play out. As a result, the pair fell only about 10 points. After yesterday's rise triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the euro today showed growth in the first half of the day but failed to break above the upper boundary of the weekly range. However, despite this consolid…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen There were no tests of the levels I marked in the first half of the day, so I had no trades. In the second half of the day, figures on U.S. initial jobless claims and the trade balance are expected. Weak statistics will lead to a new decline in the USD/JPY pair. The market's reaction to the data release will be immediate, as traders closely monitor these indicators, which serve as important signals of the U.S. economy's condition. An increase in initial jobless claims indicates a slowdown in the labor market, which may negatively impact economic growth and the U.S. dollar's position against the Japanese yen. …
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The International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) has re-appointed Iván Arriagada, chief executive officer of Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc, as its chair, effective immediately over a two-year term. He will succeed Tom Palmer, who became chair in October 2024 but is retiring from his role as CEO of Newmont, the world’s largest gold mining company, at the end of this year. ICMM is governed by its council comprising the CEOs of its 26 member companies. The chair is appointed from within this group and serves in the position for approximately two years. Arriagada previously served this role between 2022 and 2024. Arriagada’s return will bring continuity and e…
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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed, but overall it remains quite clear. There is no indication that the upward trend segment, which began in January 2025, has been canceled. However, the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken a more extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Within this wave, we saw exclusively corrective structures, so there were no doubts about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet completed, and its targets extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e…
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[Uniswap] Although the RSI(14) is in the Neutral-Bullish level, but with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence and the two EMAs still forming a Death Cross, it indicates a significant likelihood for Uniswap to weaken. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 5.938 2. Resistance. 1 : 5.754 3. Pivot : 5.521 4. Support. 1 : 5.337 5. Support. 2 : 5.104 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 5.337, Uniswap may head toward 5.104. Momentum Extension Bias: If 5.104 is broken, there is potential for this cryptocurrency to test the level at 4.920. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is restrained if the price of Uniswap stren…
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The dollar continues to face issues. As statistics indicate, the number of initial jobless claims in the US has sharply increased, exceeding economists' forecasts, leading to another decline of the dollar against several risk assets. Although this news was not particularly new to the Federal Reserve or market participants, who are well aware of the challenges currently facing the US labor market, it has negatively impacted those betting on a short-term rise in the dollar. Economists link the increase in unemployment benefit claims to a slowdown in the American economy's growth rate, which, in turn, puts pressure on the Fed. Conversely, Europe is experiencing relative stab…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the price level at 1.3385 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed out on all the upward movement. News that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States was higher than expected led to a decline in the dollar and a rise in the British pound in the afternoon. The US labor market continues to show signs of cooling, which increases investors' expectations regarding further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This factor puts pressure on the dollar, mak…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 155.74 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed out on all the downward movement. The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar yesterday after data showed that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded economists' forecasts. The released data caused the dollar to weaken, as investors interpreted this as yet another signal of cooling in the US labor market. This, in turn, may affect the Federal Reserve's future interest rate d…
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Newsquawk Highlights include US NFP, CPI and Retail Sales, BoJ, BoE, ECB, UK Jobs, UK CPI, and Japan CPI US Debt Clock MON: Chinese Activity Data (Nov), EZ Industrial Production (Oct), Canadian CPI (Nov) TUE: NBH Announcement, UK Jobs Report (Oct), EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Dec), German ZEW Survey (Dec), Japanese Trade Balance (Nov), US Jobs Report (Nov) WED: UK Inflation (Nov), EZ CPI Final (Nov), US Retail Sales (Oct) THU: ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, Riksbank Announcement, CNB Announcement, US CPI (Nov), Japanese CPI (Nov), US Real Earnings (Nov) FRI: BoJ Announcement, CBR Announcement, Quad Witching, UK PSNB (Nov), UK Retail Sales (Nov…
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For the GBP/USD pair, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any large corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave sequence a–b–c–d–e and should be considered complete. If this is indeed the case, the instrument is now in the phase of forming a new upward wave sequence. Naturally, any wave structure c…
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If anyone believes in symbols, now is the time to sell the S&P 500. Shares of Cisco, a leader among Internet companies in the 1990s, have returned to their record levels. Its collapse became emblematic of the dot-com bubble. Since then, the stock has struggled to recover, and only in 2025 did it find its moment again. The fundamental valuation of today's tech companies is as high as that of their predecessors. Will history repeat itself, causing the broad stock index to plunge into another wave of sell-offs? S&P 500 Price-to-Forward Earnings Dynamics Disappointing earnings reports from Broadcom and Oracle continue to stir investor sentiments and prompt exits fr…
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Last week, there were some intriguing developments regarding several cryptocurrency companies. It was revealed that the US banking regulator (OCC) has conditionally approved applications from Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Paxos, and Fidelity Digital Assets to obtain the status of national trust banks. This decision could significantly alter the landscape of the crypto industry in the US. Achieving national trust bank status opens up a range of advantages for these companies, including the ability to interact directly with the Federal Reserve and reduced regulatory costs. Additionally, it greatly enhances their credibility with both institutional and retail investors. One key …
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At the start of the new week today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers, although it lacks bullish confidence, despite holding above the key support levels of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The U.S. dollar failed to extend its modest rebound from a more-than-two-month low on Friday and remains the key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. Dollar bulls have been reluctant to open new long positions amid expectations of further easing of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite the Fed's cautious hints last week, traders continue to price in the possibility of two rate cuts next year, as signs of weakenin…
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What’s next for Trump’s crypto, and is the US economy in trouble? Kevin Warsh’s name shot to the front of the Fed race in a single trading session, catching markets mid-stride. Polymarket odds vaulted from 13% to 36% after reports that President Trump has narrowed the field to two men: Kevin Hassett and Warsh. The market still gives Hassett the edge at 56%, but the swing toward Warsh signals that traders believe Trump may prefer a more aggressive rate-cut advocat, “Warsh was at the top of my list,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal, adding that the next chair must cut rates immediately. (Source: Polymarket) So who the heck is this Warsh guy? And how will all of this i…
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Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim higher ground as bulls focus on defending current demand zones. After a sharp correction from recent highs, price action has entered a consolidation phase that, on the surface, appears relatively calm. Volatility has compressed, and short-term price movements suggest a market pausing rather than decisively breaking down. However, this apparent stability may be misleading. According to a CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data is signaling growing structural risk beneath the surface. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), a metric that tracks the movement of Bitcoin between exchang…
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401k Rollover to IRA: A Complete, Practical Guide Executive summary: A 401k rollover to IRA can cut costs, expand investment choices, and simplify future withdrawals when you do it right. However, timing, tax treatment, access rules, ERISA protections, and employer stock can tilt the decision the other way. This guide shows when a rollover helps, when it hurts, and the steps to complete a clean, low-stress transfer. What a 401(k) Rollover to an IRA Really Means A “401k rollover to IRA” moves money from a former employer’s 401(k) into an IRA you control. Done properly, it preserves tax deferral and can unlock a broader investment menu. In practice, funds go to either a Tr…
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The Safest Way to Use Retirement Savings: A Practical Guide Executive Summary: The safest way to use retirement savings is simple and sturdy: secure an income floor for essentials, hold a cash buffer for shocks, and invest the rest for long-term growth while following clear, rules-based withdrawal guardrails. Blend Social Security, pensions or annuities, a bond/TIPS ladder, diversified portfolios, and a tax-aware withdrawal order so your money lasts, and your lifestyle does too. There isn’t a one-size-fits-all formula. But you can build a plan that reduces risk, smooths income, and protects purchasing power. In this guide, we translate research-backed frameworks into pla…
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A missed RMD penalty can feel stressful, but it’s often avoidable, or even waivable, if you act quickly and document the fix. This guide explains how the penalty works, the exact steps to correct a missed required minimum distribution, and simple ways to prevent repeat issues. You’ll also see practical tips for Gold IRAs and other precious-metals accounts so you stay compliant without derailing your long-term plan. In short, understand the rules, fix the shortfall, and keep records to avoid a future missed RMD penalty. What the Missed RMD Penalty Means (In Plain English) When you’re required to take a distribution and don’t, the IRS may assess an excise tax, often called …
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Understanding Required Minimum Distributions and Their Impact on Retirement Savings Required Minimum Distributions, or RMDs, are mandatory withdrawals that apply to tax-deferred retirement accounts once you reach the age established by current IRS rules. They are calculated using your account balance and a life expectancy factor, which means the dollar amount generally increases over time. While you are always allowed to take more than the required amount, larger withdrawals can weaken long-term retirement stability because they remove principal that can never be replaced inside a tax-advantaged account. How RMDs Work for IRAs and 401(k)s RMDs apply to most traditional r…
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This week, the European Central Bank will conduct a thorough data-driven assessment of its upcoming agenda to evaluate the impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth and inflation. The key event will be the release of the first estimates of the eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of this year, which will come just a few hours before the ECB announces the results of its two-day monetary policy meeting. The preliminary GDP data will serve as a barometer of the region's economic health. Analysts expect a modest increase, but given the global economic slowdown and ongoing geopolitical risks, there is a possibility that the actual figures may fall sho…
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Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim the short-term holder Realized Price, a key on-chain level. Here’s where the next major support line lies for the asset. Bitcoin Has Again Dipped Below STH Realized Price In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about some key Realized Price levels for Bitcoin. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that measures the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. When the metric is trading above the asset’s price, it means the holders as a whole are sitting on a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being below the spot BTC value implies the dominance of loss on the…
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Bitcoin rose to $107,500 today, then quickly fell back to around $105,000. It seems that $105,000 is currently a balanced midpoint, above which there are significantly fewer buyers. Consolidation is necessary for further growth, so there are no serious concerns regarding the bullish market that began last weekend. Today, an interesting report from CryptoQuant caught my eye, highlighting a sharp increase in spot market demand for BTC. This is corroborated by the increase in Bitcoin outflows from centralized exchanges. Large investors appear to be actively absorbing the available supply, withdrawing coins to cold wallets for long-term storage. Such a trend usually indicate…
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The last shall be first. Signs of a deteriorating U.S. economy and uncertainty due to the shutdown prompted investors to diversify their portfolios. At the beginning of November, they reduced their exposure to technology companies. Rumors of a soon-to-be-resumed government operation brought everything back to normal. The stocks of the Magnificent Seven recorded their best performance since May. As a result, the S&P 500 has risen from the ashes. Dynamics of the Magnificent Seven Stocks Just like the Federal Reserve, investors operated in a fog due to a lack of information. The end of the shutdown will allow the release of U.S. economic data and, based on that informati…
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Amid the recent market recovery, Ethereum (ETH) is retesting a key level as support for the first time in a week, leading some market watchers to suggest that the highly anticipated end-of-year run may be delayed for a few more weeks. Ethereum Eyes Next Key Level On Monday, Ethereum retested a crucial level after reclaiming it during the Sunday rebound. The cryptocurrency has been trading within the $3,100-$3,500 range after last week’s market shakeout, briefly hitting a four-month low of $3,057. Over the weekend, the King of Altcoins reclaimed the $3,400 resistance and soared approximately 7% to the $3,650 level, stabilizing around the $3,500-$3,550 area as the new we…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)On Tuesday, from the level of 1.3184 (the close of yesterday's daily candle), the market may begin to move downward with a target of 1.3110 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly begin to move upward with a target of 1.3148 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis:Indicator analysis – downwardVolume – downwardCandlestick analysis – downwardTrend analysis – downwardBollinger Bands – downwardWeekly chart – downwardOverall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario:From the level of 1.3184 (the close of yesterday's daily candle), the …
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