Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The US dollar traded heavily last week, losing ground to all the G10 currencies, but the Swiss franc. The franc seemed to be dragged down by the use of it rather than the yen as a funding currency. Japanese officials protested the pace of the yen's weakness, while Swiss authorities seem to welcome the franc's pullback, not only against the dollar but the euro, too. Elsewhere, the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan rose to new highs for the year last week. The key event next week is the Federal Reserve meeting. There are three other G10 central banks that meet, but the others, the Reserve Bank Australia, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada will stand pat. There is …
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The Bitcoin price has had a mixed performance over the past week, with both sides of the market divide struggling to establish dominance. In the latest battle between the bulls and bears, the premier cryptocurrency appears to be succumbing to pressure from the latter group. As this weekend approached, the Bitcoin price retreated from its latest local high of around $94,000 to beneath the psychological $90,000 level. This latest correction has prompted questions in the crowd, with investors wondering whether it is just a brief obstacle or the end of the recovery. Why $80,500 Could Be The Next Local Low For BTC In a December 5 post on the social media platform X, Alphract…
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Dogecoin has been bleeding lower in recent days, grinding back toward the mid-$0.13 band. Sellers have been in control of most candles in the past 24 hours, and each attempt at a rebound has faded quickly, leaving Dogecoin stuck near the bottom of a range. One crypto analyst on X has focused attention on an important technical level on the 2-day chart. Even though price action looks weak, Dogecoin is now sitting right on a long-term support zone inside a descending triangle pattern, and this area could become the launchpad for a strong upside move if buyers react from here. The chart shared with the analysis highlights exactly where Dogecoin is resting and why this regio…
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Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding steady near important levels while derivatives traders prepare for the next move. According to CoinGecko’s data on December 7, Bitcoin price is trading just below $89,400 today. The price is up about +0.1% in the past 24 hours, with roughly $28.5Bn in spot volume. The calm spot trading hides a much busier picture in the futures market. CoinGlass shows Bitcoin futures open interest sitting near $56.5Bn. (Source: Coinglass) Futures volume over the past day is close to $49.5Bn, while spot volume on major exchanges is around $3.6Bn. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto – Here’s 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x This Year Is Bitcoin’s On-Chain …
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Following a fresh wave of bearish pressure on Friday, December 5, the price of Bitcoin has struggled beneath the psychological 90,000 level for much of the weekend. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might be readying for its next healthy upward move. BTC SOPR Drops To Lowest Level Since Early 2024 In a December 6 post on the X platform, CryptoOnchain hypothesized that a local bottom appears to be forming for the price of Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the selling pressure, especially amongst long-term holders, seems to be fading off at the moment. This market observation centers on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) …
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Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing price correction has been accompanied by several other negative developments that continue to grab investors’ attention. Most recently, market analyst Darkfost has observed a significant crash in Bitcoin spot trading volume, while highlighting potential long-term implications of such an event. Binance Records $40B Loss In BTC Monthly Spot Trading The spot trading volume refers to the total amount of Bitcoin that is bought and sold for immediate delivery on exchanges within a specific time period. It is a key market indicator used to gauge participation, liquidity, and investor interest. According to Darkfost in an X post on December 6, the Bitc…
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What place holds the highest probability for a new world-class discovery? As an Australia-based geologist and investor, I tend to look in my own backyard first, which is the home bias effect. But the thing is, thanks to decades of a supportive mining environment, well-trained staff, and advanced exploration methods, the prospect of discovering another giant deposit in Australia is fading. Don’t get me wrong, there could still be potential in remote outback locations, like the Tanami. But compared to places like West Africa, where high-grade gold can still be found close to surface, Australia’s giant discovery potential is diminishing. Then there’s Ca…
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In the last couple of days, the crypto space has been just going through the motions. SpaceX moved 1,083 Bitcoin (BTC), roughly $100 million, to new wallets. At the time, .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive { border: 1px solid #008868; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before {…
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The American dollar will set the tone for the entire currency market in the coming week. However, if my readers have just entertained the thought of a busy economic calendar, I must burst that bubble. The "shutdown" continues in effect in the US. While the shutdown itself has ended, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies have not yet been able to gather all the necessary information or fill the statistical gaps. For example, the next reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will only be released next week, on December 16 and 18. This means they will come after the FOMC meeting. I have often discussed the impact of the lack of statisti…
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Donald Trump attempted to exert control over the Federal Reserve even during his first term as president. I do not doubt that he appointed Jerome Powell to the position of Fed Chair with some "ulterior motive," aiming to gain control over the central bank. This is precisely what Trump is trying to do now. However, with Powell, it turned out to be a miscalculation. Legally, the president has no influence over the Fed chair; therefore, Powell has operated independently since taking his position. I don't know if there were any arrangements between Powell and Trump before his first appointment eight years ago. This mystery will likely remain unsolved. However, it can be said …
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The EUR/USD pair showed only one thing on Friday—a complete reluctance to move in any direction. Overall, there were no significant movements last week, despite numerous important macroeconomic reports. However, the market essentially traded only on Monday and Wednesday, and even then, it seemed like a favor was being done for someone. Throughout the week, we only saw two relatively interesting price movements. As depicted in the illustration below, these two "good movements" were around 60 pips in size, which cannot even be considered strong. In fact, the situation was even worse on the other days. At first glance at the events calendar, one might describe the upcoming w…
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XRP price started a recovery wave above $2.050. The price is now showing positive signs but might struggle to clear the $2.10 resistance. XRP price started a recovery wave above the $2.050 zone. The price is now trading above $2.060 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.090 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.160. XRP Price Faces Uphill Task XRP price remained supported above $2.00 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above $2.020 and $2.050 to enter a positive …
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Analysis of Friday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed a disappointing performance on Friday, a reminder of the excellent first half of 2025, when high-volatility trending moves occurred almost every day. The same reports from across the ocean triggered a similar meager market reaction in the GBP/USD pair—a strengthening of the dollar by 25-30 pips. The events calendar in the UK was empty, resulting in virtually no movements during the first half of the day. Overall, the upward trend remains relevant, and novice traders can expect further growth. Support for the British pound comes from the support area of 1.3319-1.3331 (the updated area), …
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It's hard not to be optimistic when the S&P 500 enters a seasonally strong period and the Fed is set to lower interest rates. The broad stock index has risen to its highest level since the end of October. However, profit-taking ahead of the FOMC meeting prevented it from maintaining the local peak. Nonetheless, the outlook for the US stock market remains bullish. More than three-quarters of asset managers surveyed by Bloomberg are positioning their portfolios for a risk-on market environment. They believe that sustained global growth, ongoing developments in artificial intelligence technology, easing monetary policy from the Fed, and fiscal stimulus will support the …
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The Dogecoin price has been drifting through a subdued stretch over the past few days, holding around the mid-$0.13 to $0.14. The recent decline has slowed down in the past 48 hours, and the chart now shows the meme coin attempting to steady itself after weeks of persistent selling pressure. Trader Tardigrade, a well-known crypto analyst on X, shared a new three-day chart suggesting that an important MACD signal is on the verge of forming, and historical performance shows that Dogecoin tends to move bullish once this signal appears. Approaching The MACD Bullish Cross Dogecoin’s quiet phase in the past 48 hours has become increasingly important because one of Dogecoin’s …
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It’s no secret that the Trump Administration has been looking to expand America’s critical mineral supply, with a specific focus on reducing reliance on imports and strengthening domestic production. One of the top among multiple administrative initiatives is the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), which allocated $7.5 billion to the industry. This bill presents an unprecedented opportunity for companies seeking to contribute to the country’s domestic supply chain of critical minerals – a positive move for grid infrastructure, storage solutions and electrification projects that rely on the availability of critical minerals downstream. However, what’s outlined in the bill…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 8 Today's session was victim of classic pre-FOMC trading: Volatile but low magnitude moves due to some traders cutting their positions at the last minuteSome assets and/or currencies just seem dead. There hasn't been much data to help volatility today and the same can be said tomorrow. In terms of economics, the Trump Administration seems to be moving towards a new TACO with tariffs on Canadian fertilizers. But more importantly for Stocks, particularly Nvidia, the US just pulled the restrictions on H200 Chips, essential for AI Models. On Ukraine, Zelenskyy communicated some positive words about recent Eur…
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The RBA will hold its final meeting on Tuesday, December 9. The market has already priced in this final act. Following the release of the latest labor market and inflation data, there is no doubt that the central bank will keep all monetary policy parameters unchanged. The GDP and trade balance reports published last week only confirmed these assumptions. However, this does not mean that the December meeting of the RBA members will be a "formality." Traders are interested in the central bank's future decisions. Previously, the market considered only two possible scenarios—rate cuts and maintaining the status quo. Now, some experts are not ruling out a third scenario that …
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So what decisions will the Federal Reserve make, and what rhetoric will it use? In my opinion, the decision has already been made – a 25-basis-point cut to the key interest rate. It is likely that the market has already priced in this decision, but it should be understood that new policy easing may be the last for some time. Why? Because the Fed continues to act in the dark. The latest data on the labor market and unemployment pertains to September. We have not seen data for October or November. These will only be released next week. Therefore, no one knows whether the "cooling" of the American labor market has stopped. I wouldn't count on the ADP report too much, as it i…
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The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets; however, this did not prompt any significant technical changes in the market. The temporary strengthening of the dollar against the euro yesterday in the afternoon can hardly be linked to anything specific. The changes against the pound were even less noticeable. It is evident that the market is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve on future monetary policy. Traders are also closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators in an attempt to predict how dovish the Fed will be in the near future. Today, in the first half of the day, data on Germany's trade balance is expected, along …
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No one is ready to take risks. Investors opted to lock in profits ahead of the FOMC meeting, causing the S&P 500 to step back and move away from record highs. The US central bank is expected to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. However, to placate opponents of this decision, Jerome Powell is likely to adopt a hawkish tone. Signals indicating a pause in the monetary expansion cycle could lead to a correction in the broad stock index. The S&P 500 has gotten back into the game after declining in late October to early November, thanks to expectations for easing monetary policy from the Fed in December, which have alleviated fears about a tech …
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The Japanese yen continues to gradually lose ground against the US dollar, even in light of the differing monetary policies anticipated from central banks in the near future. This indicates that the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan is already factored into the yen's value, and much will depend on new forecasts. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the long battle against deflation in the country, which has persisted for decades, is nearly over. Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank is approaching its inflation target, reinforcing signals that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its monetary policy me…
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Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG) said output at its Fruta del Norte gold mine in southeast Ecuador should remain flat over the next three years while unit costs climb due to increased royalties. Fruta del Norte is expected to produce between 475,000 and 525,000 oz. annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028, Lundin Gold said late Monday in a statement. This compares with the company’s 490,000–525,000 oz. output range for 2025. Head grade is estimated to average 8.3 grams gold per tonne, with fluctuations expected during 2026 as different sections of the ore body are mined. “Despite the strong execution and consistent results, the stable near-term production profile keeps us cautious …
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Bitcoin’s on-exchange supply has dropped sharply, and traders are taking note. According to Santiment, more than 403,000 BTC have left exchanges since December 7, 2024 — roughly 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That shift, measured against an on-exchange balance of about 2.11 million BTC in late November, is being seen as a sign that fewer coins are poised for quick sale. Exchange Balances Shrink Santiment said lower exchange balances have historically been linked with fewer sudden sell-offs, an observation many market watchers find encouraging. The math is straightforward: when a big chunk of supply sits outside exchanges, there is less immediately available stock to me…
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The USD/CAD pair is struggling to strengthen after a decent rebound from the round level of 1.3800, which is the lowest value since September 22. At the moment, spot quotes fluctuate around 1.3850, but traders are cautious and avoid opening active positions amid mixed fundamental factors. Optimistic employment data from Canada, published last Friday, reinforced the Bank of Canada's "hawkish" outlook, which typically supports the Canadian dollar and puts pressure on USD/CAD. At the same time, the potential for CAD appreciation is limited by risks that the United States, under President Donald Trump, may introduce new tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fer…
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