Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Bitcoin’s on-exchange supply has dropped sharply, and traders are taking note. According to Santiment, more than 403,000 BTC have left exchanges since December 7, 2024 — roughly 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That shift, measured against an on-exchange balance of about 2.11 million BTC in late November, is being seen as a sign that fewer coins are poised for quick sale. Exchange Balances Shrink Santiment said lower exchange balances have historically been linked with fewer sudden sell-offs, an observation many market watchers find encouraging. The math is straightforward: when a big chunk of supply sits outside exchanges, there is less immediately available stock to me…
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Anglo American (LON: AAL) and Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A | TECK.B) announced Tuesday that its shareholders have approved the previously announced $53B merger at company’s general meetings. The all-stock, nil-premium $53-billion transaction, first announced in September, creates a major copper heavyweight, capable of production that could surpass BHP’s massive Escondida mine in Chile by the early 2030s, according to analysts. On Monday, Anglo dropped a proposal to change executive bonus awards from the agenda of Tuesday’s shareholder vote after investors objected to the plan. Anglo American noted the incentive plan was meant to support the deal and help ret…
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Since Bitcoin’s launch, the number of addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC has climbed steadily through every market cycle, until now. Data shows that addresses in this cohort haven’t grown at all over the past two years, breaking a trend that held for more than a decade. The stagnation indicates a change in how smaller and mid-sized investors engage with Bitcoin, even as broader institutional activity in the market continues to rise. Small Holder Participation Reaches A Standstill The 0.1 BTC threshold has historically represented an important milestone for retail holders, large enough to signal commitment but small enough to remain widely attainable. For more than a d…
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The American currency has successfully avoided its worst-case scenario for five consecutive months. Personally, I do not fully understand why the market is hesitating with new dollar sell-offs when the news picture is as clear as day. However, it is not my place to tell the market what to do; I can only analyze what is happening. My conclusions over the past months, despite the lack of anticipated growth in EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments, have not changed. I do not believe my conclusions are erroneous because, apart from the growth of these instruments, we do not see any significant declines either. Predicting when the next sideways movement in the market will occur is i…
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Analysis of EUR/USD (5M) The EUR/USD currency pair continued its movement on Tuesday, which might only provoke a nervous tic in most traders. For the fifth consecutive day, the quotes of the European currency slid down at a pace not even a pregnant turtle would envy. Over the full five trading days, the pair fell 44 pips, while the average volatility during this period was 49 pips. Thus, we continue to note the obvious fact – market movements are virtually non-existent. Yesterday, even relatively important reports like ADP and JOLTs did not help. We warned that the data on job openings has long been outdated and that the ADP report is now published not once a month bu…
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Analysis of Trades on Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish, almost sideways downward movement on Tuesday. Market volatility has been weak in recent months, and over the last five days, movements have been virtually non-existent. This may be related to the upcoming FOMC meeting, as the market is reluctant to take on risk beforehand, unsure which monetary policy path the central bank will choose in the near term. Alternatively, it could simply be a result of the flat on the daily timeframe that has been ongoing for the sixth consecutive month. It is worth recalling that in September and October, there were no questions…
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Bitcoin is trading around $9,281, retreating after reaching strong resistance at the 94,200 level, which coincided with the 3/8 Murray and, in turn, with the 200 EMA. In the coming days, Bitcoin is expected to continue its technical correction until it reaches the 2/8 Murray located at 87,500. If Bitcoin consolidates below $94,000 in the coming hours, any failed attempt to break through this zone will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with a target around the 21 SMA located at $90,780 and finally at the bottom of the uptrend channel around $87,700. The Eagle indicator is showing overbought signs, so any technical rebound is expected to be seen as an opport…
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Ethereum is trading around $3,300, undergoing a slight technical correction after decisively breaking the 200 EMA and reaching the top of the downtrend channel, which acted as strong resistance. In the coming hours, Ether is expected to continue its technical correction and could reach the 200 EMA around 3,181. According to the H4 chart, ETH has reached overbought levels, so a technical correction is more likely to occur in the coming hours and could suggest an opportunity to open short positions. In the event of a pullback towards the 3/8 Murray located at 3,437, this level coincides with the top of the uptrend channel and could be seen as an opportunity to sell with sh…
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Bitcoin experienced a notable increase yesterday, along with other altcoins, following the news that the US banking regulator, the OCC, officially permitted national banks to conduct cryptocurrency operations for clients. Now, banks can operate under a riskless principal model, acting as intermediaries in transactions without holding crypto assets on their balance sheets. This decision marks the beginning of a new era for the interaction between traditional finance and digital assets. For the first time, federally chartered banks are receiving a clear signal to legally provide cryptocurrency-related services. This is not merely an experiment. It is a strategic step aim…
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The eurozone economy continues to demonstrate robust growth despite several challenges. The composite PMI index rose in October from 52.4 to 52.8, primarily due to a significant increase in the services sector, which reached a one-and-a-half-year high of 53.6. At the same time, the final GDP data for the third quarter showed a 0.3% decline in household consumption, which is good for controlling inflation but poor for economic growth. While overall inflation increased in November, it remained close to the European Central Bank target, and core inflation stabilized at 2.4%, indicating a lack of inflationary momentum. As a result, there is no reason to revise the ECB's rat…
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The U.S. dollar remains under pressure amid expectations that representatives of the Federal Reserve of the United States will today carry out their third consecutive interest-rate cut. However, many economists believe that the Fed may go into a wait-and-see mode after this cut — something that will be announced at the press conference following the meeting. Concerns over persistent inflation have led to a deep split within the central bank, which will likely prevent the Fed Chair Jerome Powell from announcing any further steps at the beginning of next year. Such a turn of events may have a serious impact on the dollar exchange rate. Lowering interest rates usually weaken…
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A new technical analysis shared by crypto analyst BitGuru on the social media platform X shows that Dogecoin is trading at an important price level that could set the stage for an upward shift. His chart shows a familiar structure forming at a major support level, one that has acted as the starting point for a previous rally in the year. The price action now developing is similar to this earlier setup, showing that Dogecoin may be preparing for another recovery move above $0.2. Dogecoin Returns To An Important Support Zone Dogecoin has spent the past few weeks trading between $0.13 and $0.15 without a clear path to bullish price action. This recent price action is an ext…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 156.63 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair never moved downward. In the afternoon, market attention will be focused on the results of the FOMC meeting, where a decision to cut the key interest rate is expected. Since markets have already priced in the likelihood of a rate cut, the main interest lies in Powell's tone and his comments on future monetary policy. A key moment will be Powell's assessment of economic conditions and infla…
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Silver this week crossed the $60-an-ounce mark for the first time, as momentum continues to build in one of the best-performing commodities of the year. Analysts at Sprott believe the main driver behind silver’s recent record-setting run has been a dwindling free-trading inventory. In Sprott’s December precious metals report, analysts led by Paul Wong wrote that the global silver inventory has reached a point where any further demand is “creating price convexity” — when price changes speed up as the metal’s supply tightens. “In prior commentaries, we have noted that global silver inventories were being reduced to the point where the free float of silver availabili…
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Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support. How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market diverge…
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The Fed just cut rates by 25 bps – Neutral tone (neither dovish or hawkish) It was largely expected and the Fed doesn't like to surprise Markets, so they tend to follow pricing closely (or send out a message through Nick TImiraos just before in case they had a last-minute change of mind). You can get access to the detailed report right here: Breaking News: US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, bringing target range to 3.50 - 3.75% There has been extra mentions of a US labor market getting weaker, but the Fed still made balanced remarks on their dual mandate, implying that they are still concerned with inflation. The dot plot suggests between 50 to 75 bps of cutting…
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Copper prices rebounded to a near record on Wednesday amid fresh warnings of a sizable supply shortage that is likely to fall short of demand. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange settled at $11,556.50 a ton, for an intraday gain of 0.6%. Earlier this week, the metal — a raw material vital to renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers — hit a record of $11,771 a ton after promising economic outlook from China, its top consumer. Click on chart for live prices. The renewed rally comes on the back of further bullish calls on copper’s long-term prospects, which in recent months have been lifted by a series of mine disruptions and growing ex…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 10 The Fed delivered a "neutral" 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%, sending markets higher. Bonds, stocks, and metals all rallied, while the US Dollar took a significant hit. Small-cap stocks and industrials outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+1.50%) and the Dow Jones (+1.10%) leading the way—a natural flow, as rate cuts tend to support these sectors the most. Bitcoin, on the other hand, failed to hold its highs unlike other asset classes. Still, Ethereum and some altcoins maintained some strength, the broader crypto market still seems confused. Tomorrow's close will be essential for all asset classes; Despite…
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The market has been focused entirely on the FOMC meeting for a whole week. There are several reasons for this. First, there's not much else to discuss. Occasionally, bland reports from Europe or the US come out, only leading to another yawn among market participants. Second, the December FOMC meeting could be significant. Although the decision is effectively already made, the market might face numerous surprises today. Judging by the movements in the currency market over the past weeks, traders are well aware of this. If the December meeting seems clear — rates will be cut by 25 basis points — no one understands what will happen next year. Undoubtedly, the simplest scenar…
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Gold is trading around $4,214 within the downtrend channel formed since November 27 and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours as it encountered strong resistance around $4,248. If gold attempts to break through the top of the downtrend channel around $4,250, it will be seen as a signal to open short positions with short-term targets around $4,160. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we will look for opportunities to sell gold in the coming hours below the 7/8 Murray located at $4,218 or even if the price falls below the 21 SMA with a target at $4,170. If the price rebounds and attempts to reach resistance levels around $4,230 - $4,245, this zo…
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The dollar is facing challenges. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, leading to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of several risk assets, including the Japanese yen. The Federal Reserve's decision was the result of prolonged debates about the state of the US economy. Proponents of the rate cut argued that the slowdown in labor market growth and global uncertainty necessitated the easing of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Conversely, opponents were concerned that a rate cut could lead to rising inflation and financial instability. However, it should be noted that there …
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Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1649 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1649 provided a sell entry for the euro, resulting in a slight 20-pip decline in the pair. In the second half of the day, another false breakout around 1.1649 allowed buying the euro, which led the pair to rise towards the target level of 1.1703. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%…
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Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3316 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The breakout and subsequent retest of 1.3316 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, but the pair did not reach significant growth. In the second half of the day, another false breakout at 1.3320 again allowed entry into the market, driving the pair up by more than 30 pips. Active selling from 1.3352 led to a rapid decline of more than 20 pips in the pound, but then the bulls took over. To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:Th…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Thursday, from the level of 1.1694 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1672 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downFibonacci levels – downVolumes – downCandlestick analysis – downTrend analysis – downBollinger Bands – downWeekly chart – downOverall conclusion: a downward trend. Alternative Scenario:On Thursday, from the level of 1.1694 (yesterday's daily candle close), the mark…
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