Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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In my previous review, I discussed Morgan Stanley's stance on the prospects of the British pound and noted that, in my opinion, "dollar factors" will be of paramount importance. In other words, the fate of the GBP/USD instrument (as well as, for example, EUR/USD) will largely depend on the American news background, Donald Trump's policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy rather than on the state of the UK economy and its political course. If the dollar falls, then the euro and pound will rise, regardless of the news from the European Union and the UK. It is worth noting that in the first half of 2025, the euro rose significantly despite the European Central Bank…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
In my view, the British pound retains good long-term growth prospects. I have previously noted in my reviews that the dollar has developed a range of structural problems that are unlikely to allow it to perform as well as it did in the 2010s or the first third of the 2020s. Firstly, Donald Trump does not believe that the U.S. dollar should be strong. The American president supports a weaker dollar, which will boost U.S. exports and help balance trade. Secondly, Trump is an advocate of low interest rates, which will increase investment in the economy and reduce the burden on the federal budget. Thirdly, Jerome Powell is set to resign next year, and a "submissive" director …
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Ethereum is set to activate its Fusaka upgrade on December 3, a move that marks another step in the network’s effort to improve performance, security, long-term stability, and the Ethereum price outlook. Core developers say the update focuses on making the network faster and more reliable for wallets, decentralized apps, and Layer-2 systems that handle activity off the main chain. At the same time, node operators are preparing for a higher block gas target of 60M, which enables the network to handle more activity overall. Fusaka is a technical upgrade at heart. But it matters beyond code. Developers say it sets the stage for cheaper scaling and a more reliable netw…
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The prices of Ethereum and Dogecoin have followed a similar trajectory to the Bitcoin price crash as the pioneer digital asset continues to lead the crypto market lower. The muted action from Bitcoin has led to speculations that the market is finally headed into another bear trend after rising over the last few years. In this same vein, a crypto analyst has predicted when they believe that the bear market will really start, and that the current trend could still lead to an eventual pump in the market. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Could Still Pump Crypto analyst ChainShinobi explained what is going on in the market, predicting that the trend could end up…
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Falling to $4,205, down 0.63%, gold pricing has retraced from recent highs in today’s trading. Having recently painted new six-week highs, rallying from support at $4,056, downside in today’s session can be considered primarily technical profit-taking. While the fundamental footing for precious metals remains firm, recent US data, particularly in the US labour market, continues to add to the dovish narrative, bolstering metal pricing. What’s next for gold? Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 02/12/2025 Fair to say, recent gold upside comes almost entirely from developments around the Federal Reserve, with commentary suggesting an increasingly dovish stance ahead of their Dec…
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On Monday, the pair actively declined, losing nearly 150 pips during the day. However, sellers were unable to break through the support level at 154.70 (Kijun-sen line on the D1 chart), after which buyers took the initiative again. The trading day closed at 155.45, and on Tuesday, the pair continued to recover from its losses. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the pair has been in an upward trend since early October, when the price was in the mid-149 range. Just a few weeks later, in November, buyers reached an 11-month high at 157.90. However, traders were unable to enter the 158 zone and could not maintain their positions. Amid the general weakening of th…
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Recent macroeconomic data from the UK has been relatively sparse and has not provided new information to adjust the forecast for the pound. The PMI for the manufacturing sector in November rose to 50.2, up from 49.7 in October, and while this is a 14-month high, the index barely made it above the contraction zone. The Bank of England meeting is scheduled for December 18, before which data on November inflation, the labor market, industrial production, and October GDP will be released. These data will help adjust rate expectations, which currently suggest a further quarter-point decrease. This is a bearish factor, but it is largely already factored into prices. The go…
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The markets are experiencing a slight corrective decline amid expectations for the release of key inflation indicators and the Federal Reserve meeting results, both to be announced on December 10. According to the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, there is an 87.2% probability that the U.S. central bank will once again cut the key interest rate by 0.25% this year, bringing it to a range of 3.50-3.75%. Yes, investors have already factored this possibility into their calculations. Major U.S. stock indices have recently nearly compensated for the decline in the third quarter of last month, although they have not yet recovered to their previous historical highs, sto…
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European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Monday that the current interest rate level remains acceptable and that policy will only be adjusted if the economic situation changes. According to him, both inflation dynamics and forecasts remain favorable, and no increases or decreases in rates are expected in the coming months; any changes will depend on incoming data. For the euro, this assessment is favorable, and the market interprets it as a strength of the European currency. Preliminary inflation data for the eurozone in November confirms de Guindos's words. Overall inflation rose from 2.1% year-on-year to 2.2%, while the core index remained at 2.4%…
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How Options Trading Works and Why Traders Use It Option Stock options have surged in popularity among both retail and institutional traders. They offer the potential for high returns, strategic flexibility, and leveraged exposure, allowing traders to control more shares than if they traded the underlying stock directly. However, this increased opportunity comes with increased risk. Options can be more volatile than stocks, and every option loses value over time due to time decay. Because of this, risk management is essential. This guide explains what stock options are, key terminology every trader must know, and why traders use options for speculation, hedging, and inco…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 2 Today marked another start to December trading, with Equities particularly relating to tech, and Cryptocurrencies leading Market performance and dragging sentiment to a more positive note. These two were subject to considerable rejection since mid-October as flows turned to risk-on yet more defensive, lower beta assets. This notably helped the Dow Jones to reach new records during the global risk-deleveraging last month. Now, Bitcoin rallied sharply back above $90,000 and Nasdaq is the best performer out of the three US Major Indexes – So, are things back like they were? Not entirely – Some bellwether …
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On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin investors with a holding time greater than six months have seen an upward reversal in their supply for the first time in months. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Has Just Turned Around As pointed out by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards in a new post on X, the 6-month inactive supply has recently witnessed its first uptick since April. This part of the supply, covering tokens that have been dormant (that is, not involved in any transaction on the blockchain) since at least six months ago, belongs to investors popularly known as long-term holders (LTHs). Statistically, the longer investors keep their coins dormant, the less…
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A key long-term indicator comparing Bitcoin to gold has just triggered a signal not seen before in market history. Analysts say such extreme compression typically precedes violent directional moves, and the fact that it’s happening at the intersection of two global safe-haven assets makes the setup even more significant. With BTC outperforming gold for over a decade, this rare signal suggests that the next phase of the BTC vs Gold battle could rewrite long-term market expectations. What Happens After A Historic Squeeze? The Bitcoin versus Gold monthly Bollinger Bands are expanding from the tightest reading in history. A chartered market technician and Bitcoin trader, Ton…
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Our preceding analysis on Silver could not have been more wrong. With the FOMC approaching and bouts of up-and-down action across all metals, what we thought to be a temporary top leading to a potential range was, in fact, just a retracement. And that retracement was an opportunity not lost on Silver traders: a stark run during month-end trading took the precious metal to new record highs, grazing the $58.85 level. The dovish repricing for the Fed's December 10 Meeting—main catalyst of the renewed "everything-rally" (or Debasement Trade) seen throughout stocks in the past week—was fuel for a sharp rally across the entire metals complex. …
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Bitocin treasury companies continue to accumulate a significant amount of BTC despite current market conditions and now control around 5% of the total BTC supply. These companies are led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Metaplanet, which have recently raised fresh capital to buy the dip. Bitcoin Treasury Companies Now Hold Over 1 Million In BTC Bitcoin Treasuries data shows that the top 100 public Bitcoin treasury companies currently hold 1,058,929 BTC, while all public companies combined hold 1,061,697. Notably, Strategy is the largest public Bitcoin holder with 650,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s company yesterday announced another 130 BTC purchase for $11.7 million. Mea…
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China has issued the first batch of new, streamlined export licences for rare earths in fulfillment of its recent trade truce with the United States, Reuters reported on Tuesday. These new licences, according to sources cited by Reuters, were issued to three of China’s leading magnet makers: JL Mag Rare Earth, Ningbo Yunsheng and Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech. Issuance of the licences comes more than a month after China agreed to temporarily suspend its expanded rare earth export controls as part of a broader trade deal with the United States. Rare earth controls Rare earths have become a central flashpoint in this year’s trade tensions between the w…
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According to reports, it has been three months since the Shibarium Bridge hack that drained more than $3 million from users, yet the case has not moved into formal law enforcement channels. On-chain investigators traced a clear path of funds, and community members say the clues are strong enough to support an official probe. Still, exchanges are holding back unless a police case number is presented. On-Chain Trail Revealed Based on reports from on-chain sleuths, the attacker moved 260 Ether through Tornado Cash before routing 232.49 ETH to deposit addresses at KuCoin. The laundering path involved 111 wallets and 45 unique KuCoin deposits, according to a public breakdow…
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On Tuesday, the euro weakened against the Swiss franc. At the moment, the EUR/CHF pair is trading around 0.9330, slightly retreating from the upper boundary of its multi-day range, after spending most of the day with little change due to the neutral market reaction to the preliminary eurozone inflation data. Recent eurozone statistics showed a mixed but relatively stable picture of price growth in November. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.2% year-over-year — slightly above analysts' expectations (2.1%) and unchanged from October. The core HICP increased by 2.4% year-over-year — a bit below the forecast of 2.5% and also unchanged from October. On a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed, but overall it remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very unconventional form. Inside this wave, we observe solely corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the construction of the upward trend segment is not over, and its targets extend all the way up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wave series looks co…
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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern still suggests the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but over the past few weeks it has become complicated and stretched out (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any large corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. Therefore, despite the pound's prolonged decline, I still believe the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave a-b-c-d-e pattern and may now be complete. If that's the case, the pair is currently forming a new u…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 155.84 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 155.84 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, which activated scenario No. 2 for selling. However, the pair never actually declined, resulting in a loss. Will the situation in the market shift in favor of the Japanese yen after the release of the U.S. RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index? Unlikely. Most likely, the dollar will maintain its leading position in the pair with the yen, since this indicator does…
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Latin America is stepping up efforts to build critical mineral supply chains as the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) says governments want to add more value at home while the Trump administration pushes for production closer to the US. IDB president Ilan Goldfajn said countries across the region are working on increasing their refining and processing capabilities for lithium, copper and other key minerals instead of exporting raw material to Asia. Together with the European Union, the IBD launched last year a joint initiative to boost responsible investment and develop value chains for critical minerals in Latin America and the Caribbean. Under this program …
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The XRP price has spent the past several days in a fragile position after falling from $2.20 and retesting $2, which has now become the most closely watched level on its price chart. The weekly candle has managed to close slightly green for the first time in more than a month, yet the rebound has not erased the weakness created by the recent sell-off. The latest technical analysis from Guy on the Earth focuses on this exact moment, noting that XRP’s entire structure now depends on whether this $2 zone can keep functioning as the pivot that stops further downside. Holding $2 As The Important Bull Support Guy on the Earth describes the $2 price level as the line separati…
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Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NMMC) has received a credit rating upgrade by S&P Global to reflect its status as one of the world’s biggest gold producers. On Tuesday, S&P upgraded the Uzbekistani miner’s long-term credit rating to ‘BB’, with a ‘Stable’ outlook, citing the Central Asian nation’s improved sovereign. The upgrade reflects “the company’s solid financial position and the resilience of its operational performance,” the firm said in a statement. The agency expects NMMC to maintain a balanced financial approach, enabling the company to continue making a significant contribution to the national economy, it added. S&P’s rating also …
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Cryptocurrencies are finally bouncing from their relative lows, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $90,000 level after bottoming near $80,500 on Friday, November 21. Traders are scared, and for good reason: elevated valuations and an ecstatic mood in early autumn had led to extreme positioning, which consequently triggered a cascade of liquidations and stops. The first major crack appeared shortly after Bitcoin reached its new record at $126,400 in mid-October, where a dark weekly closure led to a gigantic flash-crash. After that, the recovery was swift but proved temporary, materializing into a consistent, progressive selloff that dragged on all the way to the final week of…
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