Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11722 tópicos neste fórum
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Today, Monday, the pair is trading in a sideways consolidation with a slight bullish bias, supported by dovish expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, which are keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure. Global risk appetite has increased notably after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1. This comes amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut lending rates two more times this year, as well as concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which negatively affects the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In addition, expectations that the Bank of England will keep in…
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At the start of the new week, the AUD/JPY pair opened with a bullish gap, partially offsetting Friday's decline of more than 250 points. Domestic political instability in Japan is undermining the yen's status as a safe-haven asset and has become an important factor driving the pair higher. The Komeito Party has ended its 26-year coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), jeopardizing Sanae Takaichi's ambitions to become Japan's first female prime minister. This adds uncertainty and could delay the Bank of Japan's plans to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, …
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Today, gold set another all-time high, moving toward the next psychological level of $4,100, supported by a strong fundamental backdrop. Investor sentiment toward risk assets deteriorated sharply late last week after President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and tighten export controls on key software starting November 1. Beijing responded by criticizing Washington for its "double standards" and hinted at unspecified countermeasures should the U.S. threats be implemented, stressing that it is not afraid of a potential trade war. However, over the weekend, Trump softened his rhetoric, stating on Truth Social that the U.S. is not interested in harmi…
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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has started to transform. It's still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend has been canceled, but the recent decline in the euro has made it necessary to refine the wave count. Now we can see a series of three-wave structures a–b–c. It can be assumed that they are part of the larger wave 4 within the upward trend segment. In this case, wave 4 has taken on an unnaturally extended form, but overall, the wave pattern remains coherent. The construction of the bullish trend segment continues, and the news background continues to support mostly everything but the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated …
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At the start of the new week on Monday, the Japanese yen appears vulnerable amid a combination of negative factors. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 in response to Beijing's plans to restrict exports of rare earth metals. Vice President J.D. Vance backed this stance, warning that any aggressive actions by China would trigger even tougher retaliatory measures from the United States. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it would defend national interests if the U.S. persisted with new tariff pressure. The escalation in rhetoric cast doubt on the possibility of a meet…
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Bitcoin heads into the new week with a clean catalyst: the White House’s tariff brinkmanship with China and a market structure that just absorbed the largest crypto liquidation on record. Markets have marched through the tariff cycle almost beat-for-beat, and as of Monday we are squarely at Step 8 of The Kobeissi Letter’s template: the post-open reassurance from Treasury. The sequence since late week ties cleanly to the blueprint Kobeissi published after “10 months analyzing EVERY single tariff development,” which it summarized as an “EXACT playbook for investors.” Bitcoin Weekly Preview In their words: “1) Trump puts out cryptic post… 2) Trump announces large tariff ra…
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A long-dormant Bitcoin stash moved into an exchange this week, renewing worries about old coins re-entering the market and the effect that could have on prices. Mt. Gox Origins And Staggering Returns According to blockchain tracker Lookonchain, a cluster of addresses tied to coins pulled from Mt. Gox more than 13 years ago sent 300 BTC to Binance in a single transaction. Those coins were reportedly bought at about $11 each, meaning the original outlay was roughly $8,151. The transfer is now worth about $33.47 million, a mark-up of roughly 410,624%. Reports have disclosed that about 590 BTC still remain in the same group of addresses. Wallet Activity And What Chang…
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Understanding how retirement account withdrawals are taxed is a critical part of protecting long term retirement security. Taxes directly affect the money you keep, especially once you begin taking distributions to support your lifestyle. For many retirees, adding a layer of stability with a self-directed Gold IRA can help preserve purchasing power while navigating both distribution rules and economic uncertainty. Understanding How Retirement Account Withdrawals Are Taxed Every retirement account follows specific tax rules that determine how your distributions are treated. Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s typically defer taxes until withdrawal, which means distributions are t…
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It is natural for traders to fade the trend. Seeking value, one expects that elevated prices after a steep uptrend mean overpriced and low prices after a big correction always mean underpriced. Looking for value is something natural for the Homo Economicus. When we go to the store, we are looking for discounts. But with Markets, discounts don't always translate well with good trades. The steep uptrend in EURUSD from January to the 1st of July brought the pair from 1.01 (close to parity) to 1.18 in a spectacular move. Those who bet on a reversal then initially got proven right, with the pair falling 4,000 pips during the same month. But, those who were expecting a full…
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A crypto analyst has sparked fresh discussions on X social media after pointing out an eerie similarity between the current XRP price structure and its 2017 setup. Back then, the cryptocurrency experienced a sudden flash crash on Binance, dropping from $0.36 to $0.001 before soaring tens of thousands of percent to its all-time highs just weeks later. XRP Mirrors Flash Crash Setup From 2017 A new technical analysis by a crypto market expert known as ‘Guy on the Earth’ on X recalls December 2017, when XRP faced an alleged rug pull moment from Binance, which sent its price into a sharp, temporary collapse before igniting one of the most powerful bull runs in its history. Hi…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 11 Markets kicked off the week with a TACO rebound — Trump Always Chickens Out — following a bloodshed Friday that briefly ended the euphoric “everything rally.” Last week closed with fearful price action after days of relentless gains. US–China trade war tensions resurfaced, shaking risk sentiment and triggering a massive wave of crypto liquidations that saw some altcoins plunge 40–70%, while ETH and Bitcoin wicked down nearly 20% around 16:45 ET on Friday. But sentiment turned fast. A calming post from President Trump downplaying the severity of the trade spat helped markets breathe again over the wee…
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JPMorgan Chase on Monday launched its Security and Resiliency Initiative, committing up to $1.5 trillion over 10 years to strengthen US supply chains, with chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon emphasising critical minerals essential for national security. Expanding from a prior $1 trillion goal, the plan addresses vulnerabilities exposed by geopolitical risks and overreliance on foreign sources. Central to the effort is a $10 billion direct investment pool for equity and venture capital in US-based firms. Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said: “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical mi…
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Vale (NYSE: VALE) and locomotive manufacturer Wabtec Corporation announced a partnership on Monday to develop studies on a dual-fuel engine that can use both diesel and a mixture of diesel and ethanol. The studies will initially be conducted in a laboratory to validate the concept and evaluate performance, emissions reduction, and the ethanol/diesel substitution rate, the miner said. The studies and tests are expected to take place by 2027, for evaluation of future use in the Vitória-Minas Railway (EFVM) fleet, in Southeastern Brazil. The agreement to use ethanol, a renewable fuel that replaces fossil diesel, is part of a series of joint initiatives with Wabtec t…
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XRP has staged a strong comeback, rebounding nearly +65% from last week’s low after Ripple and Immunefi revealed plans for a $200,000 “Attackathon” to test the security of the XRP Ledger’s upcoming lending protocol. The weekly XRP/USD graph on Bitstamp indicates that the token is moving into an oversold area, suggesting that pressure to purchase may be observed in the near future. (Source: X) The phenomenon described in the chart is not new: every time the Stochastic RSI fell below 20, XRP responded with a powerful surge in the next several weeks. This has been observed three times since 2024, and recent reading with Stoch RSI values of 8.98 and 15.23 has ident…
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The BNB price has staged a powerful recovery, surging over 16% to trade past $1,350, outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum as optimism builds around an imminent spot ETF approval and renewed confidence in the Binance ecosystem. The rally comes after a sharp sell-off triggered by geopolitical tensions earlier this month, followed by an aggressive rebound fueled by whale accumulation and institutional inflows. According to CoinGlass, daily trading volume jumped 55% to $10.7 billion, while open interest rose 25%, signaling fresh leveraged positions betting on continued upside momentum. BNB’s sharp turnaround mirrors broader market stabilization but with stronger conviction. Tra…
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Ethereum whales are back in accumulation mode after a turbulent weekend, sparking debate over whether this dip is an entry point or another short-term bounce for ETH crypto. Large holders, including one of the biggest corporate treasuries in the market, have been buying heavily over the past 24 hours. The move follows a leverage-driven sell-off that briefly pushed Ether toward $3,500. BitMine Immersion Technologies stated that its recent purchases have increased its total holdings to more than 3.03 million ETH, equivalent to approximately 2.5% of the total supply. Market Cap 24h 7d …
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A black swan has landed on the cryptocurrency market. Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods—made via social media—served as the unforeseen trigger that led to record sell-offs in Bitcoin from its historic highs. BTC/USD plummeted by 12% in intraday trading. According to Coinglass, a staggering $19 billion in positions were liquidated within 24 hours, and over 1.6 million trader accounts were closed due to unrecoverable losses. The crypto market incurred the heaviest damage due to its 24/7 trading cycle. Trump, careful to spare his beloved equities, made his tariff announcement after U.S. stock markets had closed. Bitcoin fared relatively well under …
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Who is more dangerous: the wicked jester or the mad philosopher? The latest political gamble by the president of France borders on irrationality. He continues to repeat the same actions, expecting different outcomes. Sebastien Lecornu has once again become Prime Minister after leading what was the shortest-lived government in French history. His two predecessors, Francois Barnier and Francois Bayrou, were both ousted via votes of no confidence. Will the third time be the charm? Donald Trump, in contrast, resembles a wicked jester. His threats, imposing tariffs and then rolling them back, resemble a circus act. His behavior even inspired a new trading philosophy—TACO: "Tru…
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The GBP/USD pair has been under pressure since mid-September, following the unexpectedly dovish outcome of the Bank of England's September meeting. While pound buyers have launched regular counterattacks, their short-term victories have mostly been fueled by U.S. dollar weakness rather than genuine pound strength. To recap briefly, last month the Bank of England held interest rates steady but signaled a readiness to lower them in the near future. The central bank notably softened its tone, stating that the disinflationary trend "continues overall." Moreover, contrary to the expectations of most analysts, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 0–2–7 (zero for a hike, two …
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to release the September inflation report on Friday, October 24. This will be the only report BLS intends to publish during the ongoing government shutdown, which underscores its significance—especially with the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet on October 29. Without updated inflation data, any justification for a rate cut from the Fed may evaporate. The market is currently convinced that the Fed will lower rates two more times before year-end. That's why BLS is determined to prevent market imbalance or a panic-driven reaction surrounding this key data. That said, markets are already in a state of heightened uncertaint…
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One of the most notable developments on Monday was the release of China's export and import statistics. The data revealed that in September, China's export volume not only increased but exceeded market expectations by a wide margin. What relevance does this have to EUR/USD and GBP/USD? Direct relevance—even though the U.S. dollar has been strengthening recently, which, to say the least, contradicts the news backdrop, though it partially matches the wave structure. So, export volumes are rising. This means China is successfully exporting more goods to other countries—excluding the U.S. Exports rose by 8.3% in September, and the trade surplus reached $90 billion. For contex…
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It is also noted that Chinese companies are not only actively seeking alternative markets but are also using third countries to route their goods into the United States. I wrote about this back in the summer. The practice of bypassing sanctions through intermediary countries is widely used worldwide. For example, if China cannot export goods directly to the U.S. due to high tariffs, those same goods can be shipped first to South Korea or Japan and then re-exported to the United States under the guise of Korean or Japanese origin. The added costs for logistics and reprocessing are far less than the draconian tariffs imposed by Trump. It's well understood in financial marke…
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In recent years, central banks have been preoccupied with monetary easing, and few in the market have considered the question: who will be the first to raise interest rates again? That central bank could potentially be the European Central Bank (ECB), which was the first to cut rates to "neutral" levels and the first to return inflation to its target. Therefore, a moment may come in the future when inflation starts to accelerate again, prompting the ECB to take a more hawkish stance. Among major central banks, the ECB appears closest to that point. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the eurozone remains slightly above 2%. However, according to ECB President Christine Lagar…
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As the dust settles over a dramatic mass liquidation weekend, crypto prices are recovering, but with open interest already rising – what does it mean for Uptober? Leverage is quietly returning to the crypto market just as “Uptober” begins, a month known for strong Bitcoin rallies. Over the past 24 hours, derivatives traders have started rebuilding their positions after the weekend’s massive wipeout. Bitcoin’s futures open interest has bounced, and funding conditions are stabilizing across major exchanges. This rebound on October 13 comes as Bitcoin price steadies near $115,000. Market Cap …
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Singapore’s High Court has given the green light to a restructuring plan for crypto exchange WazirX, clearing a major obstacle in the company’s effort to repay users after last year’s large theft. According to reports, the court’s approval on October 13 allows the exchange to move ahead with a court-supervised recovery process tied to the $234 million hack that hit the platform in July 2024. Creditor Vote And Numbers Based on reports from the company, the revised plan won broad backing from affected account holders. In an August revote, 95.7% of participating scheme creditors voted in favor, and those votes came from 143,190 participating creditors representing about $…
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