Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Tuesday was incredibly interesting. Traders received a massive amount of important information that affects currency market movements. But not only that; it also impacts the long-term plans and prospects of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). In this review, we will look at what has changed for the British central bank just two days before its final meeting of the year. Among all the UK reports released on Tuesday morning, I can highlight two reports: the unemployment rate and the change in average hourly earnings. The unemployment situation is relatively straightforward. The rate rose to 5.1% year-on-year, but Andrew Bailey mentioned back in the summ…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The recent economic reports from the U.S. labor market hit like a thunderbolt. I'm not saying that most market participants expected positive numbers; rather, the opposite. I had warned that it would be extremely difficult to expect positive outcomes from the U.S. labor market even after three rounds of monetary policy easing. However, the labor market data for October and November surprised with their weakness. To summarize, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% in November. The Nonfarm Payrolls for October were -105,000, and for November, they were 60,000. If we sum all the values, including the upward revision of the September figure, it's not so bad. However, in my opi…
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In my view, there is only one expectation for the European Central Bank in 2026—tightening. In the most optimistic scenario for the dollar, inflation in the European Union will remain steady around 2%, so there will be no need for monetary policy intervention. Rates will stay at current levels, which will not provide additional support for the European currency. However, the euro continues to dominate the dollar and shows no signs of losing its advantage. The market has not found compelling reasons to begin constructing a downward trend in the last six months, and I really don't think reasons will emerge in 2026. In the worst-case scenario for the dollar, inflation in the…
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Cardano traded slightly lower over the past 24 hours, with the token hovering near $0.3656 at the time of writing. That price marks a daily drop of about -5.5%. Trading activity stayed tight, with intraday moves limited to a narrow range between $0.3775 and $0.3898. There was a small bounce attempt earlier in the session, but it did not last. The short-term picture remains weak. Over the past seven days, Cardano has fallen by roughly -18.2%, showing continued pressure on the downside. (Source: Coingecko)The pullback looks deeper when viewed over a longer period. Over the past two weeks, the token has declined by another 15%. That move reflects broader market cond…
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On December 17, Bitcoin saw a sharp and chaotic two-hour stretch that sent prices violently higher and lower within a short window. The move began with a fast rally, then flipped just as quickly into a steep drop. Both sides of the market took hits. Each leg pushed Bitcoin roughly $3,000 in either direction, highlighting how aggressive trading had become during the session. Bull Theory flagged the initial surge, noting that Bitcoin jumped about $3,300 in just 30 minutes. That spike forced the liquidation of roughly $106M in short positions. According to the analyst, the speed and scale of the move made it a textbook short squeeze. But the strength did not last. O…
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Bitcoin has entered a critical make-or-break phase as price clings to key weekly support while momentum continues to fade. Despite holding above a major confluence zone, repeated rejections overhead suggest buyers are losing control. With macro pressure building and liquidity levels still untested, the next move from here could define whether BTC stabilizes or slides into a deeper reset. Lower-Timeframe Rejection Keeps The Downtrend In Control Crypto analyst Michael Van De Poppe revealed in a recent post that Bitcoin has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance level. This failure signals that the short-term downtrend remains intact on lower timeframes, confirming tha…
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The EUR/USD currency pair was more active on Tuesday and Wednesday, yet overall it didn't warrant a standing ovation. Consider this: on a highly informative Tuesday, the total volatility was only 75 pips. And that was on a day when a good dozen important macroeconomic reports were released in both the Eurozone and the U.S. Thus, we can draw a few conclusions that should be obvious to all. The first conclusion is that the flat trend on the daily timeframe remains relevant, which explains the relatively low volatility even on days when volatility would logically be the highest. The second conclusion is that the market was not impressed by the U.S. macroeconomic data it had …
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Ethereum price failed to stay above $3,000 and declined further. ETH is now consolidating and might soon aim to start a recovery wave if it clears $2,880. Ethereum started a fresh decline below the $2,950 zone. The price is trading below $2,900 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,920 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $2,800 zone. Ethereum Price Dips To New Weekly Lows Ethereum price attempted a fresh increase but struggled above $3,000, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below $2,950 and $2,920 to enter a bearish zon…
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XRP price failed to gain pace above $1.950 and trimmed gains. The price is now struggling and faces resistance near the $1.90 level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $1.90 zone. The price is now trading below $1.880 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1.9350 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $1.850. XRP Price Fails At Resistance XRP price attempted a recovery wave above $1.920 but failed to continue higher, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price started a fresh decline below $1.90 and $1.880. There was a mov…
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On Wednesday, a bipartisan meeting of the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Tim Scott, offered a cautiously optimistic outlook for discussions surrounding the anticipated crypto market structure bill. Despite the absence of any markup hearings scheduled for this week, industry representatives and senators engaged in what many considered a productive dialogue regarding the evolving legislative landscape. Senators Collaborate With Industry Leaders Key figures from major crypto firms were among the attendees, including executives from Coinbase (COIN), Kraken, Chainlink, a16z, and Ripple, who have been increasingly involved in discussions aimed at fostering the posi…
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A cryptocurrency analyst has explained where Ethereum could go next based on a long-term Parallel Channel forming in its monthly price chart. Ethereum Has Been Trading Inside A Parallel Channel For The Last Few Years In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a long-term pattern that Ethereum has appeared to have been following for the last few years. The pattern in question is a “Parallel Channel” from technical analysis (TA), which forms whenever an asset’s price trades between two parallel trendlines. The upper level of a Parallel Channel is likely to facilitate top formations in the asset, while the lower one can act as a support boundary and allow t…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the EuroThe price test at 1.1711 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros. The second test at 1.1711 triggered Scenario No. 2 to buy, as the MACD was already in the oversold area, resulting in a rise of more than 20 pips in the pair. After dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate dynamics, the dollar lost its morning momentum. However, the American economy, despite some weakening, remains more stable than those of many developed nations. The ongoing problem is unemployment, which has been r…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 155.61 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point to buy the dollar. However, losses were recorded on this trade because the pair did not appreciate. The dollar managed to maintain its advantage against the Japanese yen, but a more vigorous upward trend in the USD/JPY pair has not materialized. The market appears to be pricing in a moderate tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, expecting any interest rate hikes to occur very gradually. Today's key focus will be on the U.S. inflation data, as no significant r…
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Following yesterday's inflation data, the British pound is preparing for another bout of volatility. Today, the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates, as concerns are shifting from inflation toward problems in the UK economy and labor market. Traders and economists expect the central bank to lower its base interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%—the lowest level in nearly three years. Previously, it was assumed that the decisive vote would once again come from Committee Chair Andrew Bailey, but yesterday's sharp drop in inflation increased the likelihood that one of the four hawks on the Monetary Policy Committee will switch sides. UK inflatio…
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In its latest report, asset manager and exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer, Bitwise, has shared an optimistic 2026 outlook for the crypto market, anticipating significant growth, while predicting new all-time highs for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Megatrends In Crypto? Bitwise begins by asserting that Bitcoin is poised to break free from its traditional four-year price cycle, setting the stage for new records. Several factors contribute to this bullish forecast. The dynamics of past cycles, including the Bitcoin Halving, interest rate fluctuations, and market booms and busts fueled by leverage, are expected to be less impactful in the coming years. …
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A fresh wave of selling in technology stocks has sent the S&P 500 tumbling at the fastest pace in nearly a month. Even the dovish rhetoric from Christopher Waller, a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) governor, failed to provide relief. Waller stated that the federal funds rate could fall by 100 basis points. While he is among the candidates for the Fed chair position, he is not considered a favorite. The futures market has not adjusted its expectations concerning the timeline for resuming monetary expansion, with March being the most favored month for this potential shift. Dynamics of US Stock Indices The last shall be first. Investors are actively reallocating …
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This morning is a blessing for volatility traders and economists – A triple slate of high-tier change just landed in the past hour and a half. Starting with the most recent releases, the US CPI (headline) for November landed at 2.7% vs 3.1% expectations – A sharp miss on high expectations and a very good sign for future cuts. The Core measure actually came lower (2.6% vs 3% exp), reflecting a cooling in the Services sector. zoom_out_map Morning US Data releas…
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Greetings, 99Bitcoins. Cryptocurrency is doing TREMENDOUSLY well, folks, absolutely the safest investment in the world. Incredible results since Trump crypto renaissance. Nobody protects and holds crypto as I do! Sound like anyone you know? The Trump Crypto experiment has had its moments, but it is ending the year a bit rotten. After all unless you held .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-c…
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Market Insights Podcast (17/12/2025): In this most recent episode, TraderNick leads the discussion on the latest developments in monetary policy, particularly regarding how the Fed is balancing its dual mandate, recent stock market trends, and furthering the conversation on global sovereign debt. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major ec…
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Bitcoin price attempted to start a fresh increase but failed at $90,000. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $88,000 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $87,000 zone. The price is trading below $87,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $86,450 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $87,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses Bitcoin price attempted a fresh surge above $88,000 and $88,500. BTC tested the $90,000 resistance zone and reacted to the downside. There was a sharp decline …
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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, recovered, and then resumed a new downward move. The ascending trendline has been broken, so a correction may occur in the near future. Yesterday, the UK inflation report was published, providing a definitive conclusion on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision scheduled for today. There is now no doubt that the British central bank will cut the key interest rate, which is a bearish factor for the British currency. While this decision may already be partially priced in, a decline could still be observed today, as the BoE may adopt a more dov…
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Solana failed to settle above $132 and nosedived. SOL price is now consolidating losses below $130 and might decline further below $120. SOL price started a fresh decline below $130 and $128 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $128 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $131 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a recovery wave if the bulls defend $122 or $120. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price failed to remain stable above $132 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL declined below the $130 and $128 support levels.…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe price test at 1.3336 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair increased by 20 pips. The sharp decline in UK inflation led to a decline in the British pound. However, bulls managed to reclaim their positions in the second half of the day. Several factors likely triggered the sudden reversal. Firstly, the decline in the pound reached critical levels, prompting stop-loss orders to trigger and attracting short-term buyers looking to capitalize on a rebound. Secondly, traders may have concluded t…
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Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin “oversold RSI” roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026—an outlook he says would render the traditional “four-year cycle” framework obsolete. “A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittel wrote, sharing a chart of bitcoin’s average price path after RSI falls below 30, with the RSI breach marked as t=0. “This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.” Can Bitco…
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On Wednesday, GBP/USD fell below the round 1.3400 level as the latest UK inflation report showed a notable decline, ahead of the Bank of England's upcoming monetary policy decision on Thursday. The pound sterling weakened sharply as the CPI for November revealed an unexpected result: instead of the anticipated increase, it decreased. The economic situation in the U.S. remains tense as Federal Reserve officials adjust their positions. Fed Chairman Christopher Waller, whom President Donald Trump planned to appoint as Fed Chair, noted that the rate cut had a positive effect on the labor market. He emphasized that inflation is unlikely to rise again, stating that current rate…
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