Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Ethereum (ETH) stands out with one of the best price performances from last week as a general bullish sentiment swept across the crypto market. During this period, the dominant altcoin gained by 9.06% with its prices briefly entering the $4,700 price range. As the majority of investors hold green positions, on-chain data support price movements to remain bullish, albeit only for the short term. Ethereum MVRV Suggests Positive Momentum, Eyes On 2.4 Barrier Prominent crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has recently shared a potentially impactful on-chain analysis on the Ethereum market. Using data from Glassnode, Kesmeci has observed that the Ethereum MVRV ratio has recently rea…
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The Federal Reserve will hold its fifth meeting this year. At the previous four, monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, despite market expectations for a rate cut stretching back to last year. However, let me remind you that FOMC members regularly comment on their views of the economy and monetary policy outlook. So, no market participant can say that FOMC members gave false hope—since the start of this year, Fed officials have consistently said the base scenario for 2025 is two rounds of easing. One more rate cut is planned for next year, and another for 2027. Also, remember that once per quarter, the so-called "dot plot" is published, which visualizes all FOMC p…
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The case concerning Donald Trump's tariffs has reached the US Supreme Court. Initially, the lawsuit brought by 12 Democratic governors and several private businesses was heard by the International Trade Court, which handed down a clear verdict: the tariffs were illegal. Donald Trump immediately appealed, and the case went to the US Court of Appeals, which also decided unequivocally—Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs on 185 countries. Yet Trump did not give up and requested that the Supreme Court review the case. The hearing is scheduled for November 9, which means the tariffs will certainly remain in place until that date. Donald Trump cites the 1977 …
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The upcoming week promises to be volatile and informative. The central event will be the September Federal Reserve meeting, whose outcome will overshadow all other fundamentals. Let's first review the key macroeconomic reports for EUR/USD that will be released in the coming days. On Monday, the US will publish the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, based on a survey of New York Fed district manufacturers. After two months of growth, it's expected to fall to 4 points, signaling a fading of the momentum seen in July and August. For dollar bulls, the index must not return to negative territory, especially with the ISM Manufacturing Index (in contraction since Ma…
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The euro continues to rest on its laurels as the US dollar declines. The euro doesn't even have to do anything to attract investors and traders — market participants are fleeing the dollar like the plague, but money can't just float in the air; it needs to take the form of some currency. How many real alternatives to the dollar are there in today's world? The euro, the pound, and, at best, the yen and the franc. Thus, the main beneficiaries in 2025 are currencies that aren't even making any real effort. Everything in the FX market now hinges on a simple question: Will the US dollar keep falling? If yes, the euro and pound will continue to rise. If the dollar begins to str…
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The fate of the British pound, like that of the euro, is mainly out of its own hands. Right now, almost everything on the market depends on how investors feel about the dollar—and in 2025, that sentiment is strongly negative. If this market mood persists through year-end, demand for the pound will only continue to grow. Notably, the current wave pattern has remained unchanged for a long time and still suggests a bullish segment is unfolding. The new week brings the Bank of England meeting, which should not be taken lightly. In recent meetings, what mattered most was the mood of the MPC Committee—rather than the specific decision made or not made. The BoE is almost certain…
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In previous outlooks, I concluded that the fate of both major pairs once again largely depends on the news flow from the United States. And this isn't just about the events listed in the classic forex calendars, but also the developments surrounding the Trump vs. Fed standoff, the trade war, and the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Still, for now, these events are not having a strong direct impact on the FX market. The key event will be the Federal Reserve meeting, even if the decision is already priced in. Nobody in the market doubts that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points for the first time since last year. However, labor market weakness is intensify…
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In recent weeks, the market has entered a state of relative calm. This is clearly reflected in the US dollar, which, despite everything, is in no hurry to keep declining. I can't say we're seeing a classic sideways trend or a change in the wave pattern, but market activity has dropped, price swings are small, and there is no mass dollar selloff as before. This could be explained by the uncertainty over what to expect from the FOMC over a one-year horizon (due to the complicated situation involving Donald Trump), and because the US president hasn't recently announced or implemented new tariffs. Trump's attention is now entirely focused on trying to stop the conflict in Ukr…
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Donald Trump never ceases to surprise with his persistence and is ready to use any measure to force Kyiv and Moscow to sign a truce. The American president views Russia's continued war effort as enabled by its steady cash flow, mainly from oil and gas exports. Thus, Trump wants to cut off this dollar flow to Russia, so the Kremlin won't have the means to continue fighting. Frankly, it's hard to judge how effective such measures would be, especially since Moscow has repeatedly made it clear that sanctions will not force them to abandon their objectives. Yet Trump's new tariffs are also under question. The US president not only wants to impose additional tariffs on India an…
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Bitcoin price is showing positive signs above $115,000. BTC is now consolidating and might rise further if it clears the $116,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $115,000 zone. The price is trading near $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $116,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $116,200 zone. Bitcoin Price Holds Gains Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $112,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $113,500 and $114,200 resistance levels. The bulls were able to push …
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair showed ultra-low volatility on Friday. The day's macroeconomic backdrop was quite weak, and traders had already had plenty of diverse information over the week to keep the uptrend intact. The uptrend did persist, but traders were clearly in no hurry to buy more. There may be several reasons. First, traders may be waiting for the Fed meeting—though in our view, everything is already quite clear about that event. Second, the market may be uncertain about the continuation of the trade war, since the Supreme Court could block Trump's tariffs. Third, the market is watching for new Trump moves regarding FOMC members, since…
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also traded sideways with low volatility. In the UK, GDP and industrial production reports came out that day, but they didn't particularly interest the market. At best, the reaction was around 20 pips. So, technically, nothing changed on the hourly timeframe. Next week, at least two events could seriously shake the market. It's obvious the Bank of England will take a pause and keep the key rate unchanged. It's also clear that the Federal Reserve will cut the key rate by 0.25%. However, the Fed could guide the market on how many more cuts to expect for the rest of the year. Currently, one more rate cut is expected i…
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The EUR/USD currency pair is likely to continue its upward movement during the upcoming week. Making such a forecast is very easy, even for a beginner. Just open the daily chart and see where (and how fast) the pair is moving in 2025. After all, shouldn't trading follow the trend? So even if the euro dips a little next week, it won't change the overall outlook—there's simply no reason to expect dollar strength. Remember, there are several global reasons for the dollar's decline. The first is that the "dollar trend" lasted 16–17 years, and everyone knows that everything in the economy is cyclical. For example, from 2000 to 2008, there was an "euro trend," from 1992 to 2000…
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The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight increase last week, but overall volatility remains low. The market is still in a wait-and-see mode. The US dollar has no real reasons to grow, except for occasional corrections. The British pound has no reason to rise either, but it does have a trump card—the falling dollar. The British problems date back to 2016, when Brexit began. If you look at the current state of the British economy—issues with bonds and the budget, declining living standards, and so on—it's natural to wonder: why is the pound even rising at all? The pound rises because the dollar is falling, and there's no one else to strengthen it. The choices are limited. Thi…
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Ethereum price started a fresh increase and climbed above $4,700. ETH is now correcting gains and might aim for another increase if it clears $4,685. Ethereum is now eyeing an upside break above the $4,650 zone. The price is trading above $4,550 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $4,660 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,650 and $4,685. Ethereum Price Eyes Fresh Increase Ethereum price started a fresh increase after it formed a base above the $4,350 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,550 and $…
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On the weekly chart, the price has reached the upper boundary of the descending price channel. From here, there are two options: either a breakout upward from the current levels with the possibility of medium-term growth, or a reversal downward from the current levels for a medium-term decline. A divergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator suggests a higher probability of the downside scenario. On the daily chart, consolidation below the July peak (0.6627) will be the first signal of a reversal. The Marlin oscillator is already indicating further downside. A break above 0.6668 opens the way to growth (alternative scenario). Consolidation below the MACD lin…
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On the daily chart, the British pound has consolidated above the MACD line. With the Marlin oscillator developing in the positive zone, the target at 1.3631 becomes relevant. However, this outlook may be deceptive, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. A downward movement is possible, even breaking below its lower boundary. A move and consolidation below the 1.3525 level would also mean consolidation below the MACD line, making the 1.3364 target realistic rather than a false one (as opposed to 1.3631). On the four-hour chart, the price remains within the range of the September 9–11 extremes and the MACD line …
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On Friday and this morning, the euro quote remains within Thursday's range. Since September 8, the price has been coiling around the MACD indicator line, which is sloping downward. The Marlin oscillator is tending downward, even while in positive territory. The euro is under market pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. A similar sideways movement has been seen on the S&P 500 and government bond yields over the past week — markets are awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision. Our previously stated forecast calls for a decline in the euro, since, along with a rate cut, the FOMC is also expected to send a hawkish signal — there will be no three cuts by year-end, and ev…
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XRP price gained pace for a move above the $3.120 resistance. The price is now correcting gains and might start another increase above $3.080. XRP price is consolidating gains and facing hurdles near the $3.080 resistance. The price is now trading below $3.060 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $3.080 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to rise if it stays above the $3.00 zone. XRP Price Eyes Upside Break XRP price managed to stay above the $3.00 level and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price climbed above the $3.05…
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Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no interesting movements on Friday. Only two reports throughout the day could have theoretically attracted traders' attention. In the morning, Germany released the second estimate of the consumer price index for August. Unsurprisingly, the second estimate matched the first, prompting no market reaction. In the second half of the day, the US Consumer Sentiment Index was released, which declined noticeably compared to August, from 58.2 points to 55.4 points. This report could have triggered a drop in the dollar, but it didn't. The day's total volatility was 45 pips, which eloquently spea…
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Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also showed absolutely no interesting movement. Throughout the day, the pair was stuck between two areas: 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590. On the hourly timeframe, an upward trend persists, but at this point, it's not possible to draw a local ascending trendline, and the market is in no hurry to develop the uptrend. The British pound remains very close to its highs of the past several years, and there are plenty of reasons for the US dollar to fall. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, we have observed low volatility, which is the main reason for the lack of solid trending movement. On Friday, relatively im…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday—not in Germany, the UK, the EU, or the US. Recall that during the first two weeks of September, traders had a fairly rich flow of macroeconomic data at their disposal. Almost all of them showed that the US economy continues to deteriorate. Only GDP is rising, and that's artificially. How much longer it will keep growing on the back of Trump's trade war is unknown. In any case, market participants have a low opinion of the results delivered by the new US administration. Fundamental Events Analysis: The only fundamental event on Monday is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. H…
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BNB price is gaining pace above the $920 zone. The price is now showing positive signs and might aim for a move above the $950 level in the near term. BNB price started a fresh increase above the $900 and $920 levels. The price is now trading above $920 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $925 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair (data source from Binance). The pair must stay above the $910 level to start another increase in the near term. BNB Price Eyes More Gains BNB price formed a base above the $880 level and started a fresh increase, beating Ethereum and Bitcoin. There was a steady move above the $…
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[Crude Oil] – [Monday, 15 September 2025] Although the RSI is in the Neutral-Bullish area, the position of the EMA(50) being below the EMA(200) could lead to weakness today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 65.00 2. Resistance. 1 : 63.80 3. Pivot : 62.74 4. Support. 1 : 61.54 5. Support. 2 : 60.48 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 61.54, #CL could move lower towards 60.48. Momentum Extension Bias: If 60.48 is broken and closed below, there is potential to test the 59.28 level. Invalidation Level Invalidation / Bias Revision The downside bias is restrained if #CL strengthens, breaks, and closes above 65.00. Technical Su…
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[USDX] – [Monday, 15 September 2025] Today, USDX has a potential to weaken due to a Death Cross between the EMA(50) and EMA(200), and the RSI being in the Neutral-Bearish area. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.00 2. Resistance. 1 : 97.79 3. Pivot : 97.63 4. Support. 1 : 97.42 5. Support. 2 : 97.26 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 97.42, there is potential for continued weakening towards 97.26. Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.26 is broken and closed below, the next level to be tested could be 97.05. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens, breaks, and closes above 98.00…
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