Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
2404 tópicos neste fórum
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Overview: After recovering impressively yesterday, the US dollar saw some follow-through buying initially but has reversed lower and is paring yesterday's gains against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. East Asian emerging market currencies that had surged have now traded lower for the past three sessions. The main talking point today is tomorrow's trade talk between the US and China. The mutual tariffs are so high that even if they were halved, they would still be prohibitive. China's April trade figures show it was able to more than replace the loss of exports to the US and overall Chinese exports rose. While China has replaced US demand, at least initially, …
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Overview: A couple days away from the US-China talks, the two are sitting disputing who sought out the talks. Given the egos, the risk is that the talks are downgraded if not canceled. Expectations ought to be low in any event. On the other hand, the first US trade agreement is expected to be announced with the UK today, though it has not prevented sterling from falling ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will most likely result in a dovish quarter-point cut. For its part, the greenback is building on yesterday's gains, encouraged by the Federal Reserve's hawkish hold. It is higher against the G10 currencies, and most emerging market currencies. Equities are most…
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Highlights include UK-EU Summit, China Activity Data, PBoC LPR, RBA, Global PMI Data, Inflation from Japan, Canada and the UK Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights : 19th-23rd May 2025 MON: Canadian Holiday (Victoria Day), EU-UK Summit; Chinese Industrial Output (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), House Prices (Apr), EZ HICP Final (Apr) TUE: PBoC LPR, RBA Policy Announcement, Norges Bank Financial Stability Report; EZ Current Account (Mar), Consumer Confidence Flash (May), Canadian CPI (Apr), German PPI (Apr), New Zealand Trade (Apr) WED: Japanese Trade Balance (Apr),UK CPI (Apr), US MBA (w/e 12th May) THU: ECB Minutes (Apr), CBRT Inflation Report; Australian Flash PMIs (May), Jap…
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Are Tariffs a de facto tax hike that raises prices for consumers? Are Tariffs 1 Bad Hidden Tax Hike on Consumers? Since President Trump brought tariffs back into the spotlight, a heated debate has emerged: Are these import taxes truly about protecting American jobs, correcting trade imbalances, or are they simply a way to raise government revenue? While the political messaging varies, the economic impact remains clear. tariffs function as a hidden tax hike on consumers. What Are Tariffs and How Do Tariffs Work? A tariff is a government-imposed tax on imported goods, typically calculated as a percentage of the item’s value. While the tax is officially paid by the impo…
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Log in to today's North American session recap - May 29, 2025 The US dollar gave back the lead it accumulated throughout the beginning of the week as it went through a volatile seesaw. The DXY gapped up with the most recent "Trump Taco" headlines, as the US Federal Court canceled the president's plan to impose tariffs on all imports. The dollar index consequently dropped to levels last seen at the end of last week. You can take a look at our latest DXY intra-day analysis here. There wasn't much in terms of Economic calendar releases throughout the session apart from a miss in the Jobless Claims. The data came in at 240K vs 230K expected, though markets may really worr…
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Solana price analysis: Can bulls break above recent highs of $185? Year-to-date, 2025 has proven to be an interesting time for the crypto market, with Solana being no exception. Enjoying a period of bullish momentum bookmarked by Trump’s win in the election, seen as the pro-crypto candidate of choice, Solana not only rose to an all-time high just shy of $300 but overtook Binance Coin (BNB) to become the fifth-largest coin by market capitalization globally. close …
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US Indices continued their recovery throughout May with another decent start to the trading week. The Nasdaq 100 is up 2.15% since Friday’s close. They are up through broadly unchanged on the day. Sentiment for this trading week has been broadly positive throughout the globe. Even as US cash markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day, Equity Futures posted a rise without much retracement. A swift move up was made in the index after Nvidia beat high expectations on its earnings after the session close with an EPS coming at $0.96 vs $0.93 expected. Revenues came in at $44.1B vs $43.3B expected. More news came in with the "Taco Trump" headlines, as President Trump's i…
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Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. https://open.spotify.com/episode/7Et4qsTDaKAcMgl1Mvrm4E?si=9c1d35f672324c63 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or…
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Bitcoin hasn't seen any concrete move since last week's all-time highs were hit. Consolidation above all-time highs is typically viewed as a strong signal for potential continuation. It indicates that the market is absorbing higher price levels, with increased trading activity reinforcing acceptance of the new range and paving the way for further upside. Although this acceptance is conditional to prices actually maintaining their newly formed range. Prices recently broke out of the steep ascending trendline that led Bitcoin to its most recent all-time highs, marked at $112,030 on Thursday May 22nd. Dive into a two timeframe technical analysis for the leading cryptocur…
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If trade imbalances truly drive protectionist backlash, as many claim, we should have witnessed comparable anti-trade sentiment during the 1980s when America's deficit with Japan reached historic proportions. Yet history reveals a critical distinction: Japan was offered—and wisely seized—an economic escape valve that today's geopolitical climate threatens to deny China. This asymmetry not only betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how global trade evolved but risks triggering an unprecedented economic disruption. Japan's solution came through a direct investment revolution. Faced with mounting trade barriers and the Plaza Accord's dramatic yen appreciation, Japanese…
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Overview: There are five developments to note. First, the US and China will have initial trade talks this weekend in Switzerland. Second, the PBOC cut its key rate by 10 bp and cut reserve requirements by 0.5%. It also announced several other measures to boost lending/relending. Third, German factory orders were stronger than expected, perhaps bolstered by attempts to move ahead of US tariffs. Fourth, after last week’s ruction, most Asian emerging market currencies continued to pullback. The exceptions today were the South Korean won and Philippine peso. Fifth, there has been little market impact from India and Pakistan exchanging strikes. The Indian rupee is weaker (~0.5…
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Overview: China's mainland markets re-opened after the extended holiday, and the by setting the dollar's reference rate little changed from its last fix helped inject a note of stability into the local Asian currencies. Indeed, most of them pulled back today, including the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. The yuan and yen are firmer. In fact, the yen's roughly 0.35% gain puts it atop the G10 scoreboard today, though more broadly, the greenback is mixed. There has been much speculation that the US could announce tariffs on semiconductors as early as tomorrow. While they are coming, we are skeptical about tomorrow. As we note below, the period for public commentary …
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Overview: The dollar has begun the new week under pressure, though many financial centers are closed today. The upside pressure on Asia Pacific currencies remains notable. The offshore yuan, the Taiwanese dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and Australian dollar are among the strongest currencies today. The ostensible trigger is speculation of US semiconductor tariffs to be announced Wednesday and continued speculation of a "Mar-a-Lago" currency agreement modeled as it were on the 1985 Plaza Accord that drove the dollar lower. Less fanciful is the idea that the US will seek local currency revaluation in trade talks. Many local markets will re-open tomorrow. T…
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President Trump says there are trade talks with China. Beijing denies it. Around the time the US reports that the world's largest economy contracted slightly in Q1 (0.3% annualized), US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the effective embargo was shutting down the China's economy. The week ended with China's Commerce Ministry statement that it was evaluating US overtures for trade talks, which implies the US caved, as the psych-ops continue. Trump and Bessent's call for lower interest rates will get little attention for the Federal Reserve. With a decent jobs report in hand, the Fed has no incentive to either cut rates or signal that it is preparing to cut. The uncertai…
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There has been some violent moves around markets since yesterday's North-American session close. Between the misstep in Nvidia’s earnings release and renewed political tensions in the U.S, markets had plenty of fuel for volatility across the board. The USD gapped up on the news that the US Federal Court blocked the Trump's sweeping tariff policy - though volatility induces more volatility and the dollar is now the weakest currency on the day. Trying to make sense of these moves - USD Chart close …
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The New Zealand dollar declined as much as 0.67% earlier but has recovered. In the European session, NZDS/USD is trading at 0.5969, up 0.04% on the day. RBNZ's Hawkesby sees weaker growth, lower inflation A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs. The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopp…
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Log in to today's North American session recap - May 27, 2025 The US dollar was leading all majors today before the NZD took its spot, even after last evening's RBNZ cut by 25 bps. There was no major news today except for some employment in Europe, FOMC Minutes that didn't provide anything new but more importantly the NVIDIA Earnings. There has been a mistake in the first report published indicating an EPS at $0.81 instead of $0.96! US indices closed down small on the day but Futures rallied back on the correction. Bitcoin lost some ground today though still remaining in the same range - more on this coming up through the morning session. BTC finishes the North-Americ…
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Powell laid out in his post-meeting press conference and what has already been echoed in recent speeches by other Fed officials. Persistent uncertainty around trade policy, risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate (employment and inflation), and the ongoing debate about which side presents the greater medium-term risk are keeping the FOMC in wait-and-see mode. So far, nothing in the incoming data through early May appears to have shifted the Fed’s stance or prompted a lean toward any specific policy path. Participants agreed that with growth and the labor market remaining solid, and policy already moderately restrictive, the Fed is well positioned to stay patient. Th…
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The Greenback has recovered some of its Sunday open losses, as the DXY touched a low of 98.65. The Dollar has rallied well in the past two sessions as Memorial Day gave strength to the USD. A contributor to this USD strength have been recent comments from Japan's Mister of Finance announcing that they would supply less JGB's - the buying of the latter weakened the JPY and some rebalancing towards US Assets. The Dollar is coming off a rough week after Friday, 16th May, Moody’s Credit Rating Downgrade led to some broad USD selling, which led to Bitcoin consolidating above prior all-time highs and Gold making a comeback towards $3,300. The Canadian Dollar on the other ha…
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Currently trading at around ~1.34650, GBP/USD trades 0.32% lower in today’s session. Easing from multi-year highs made last week, cable continues to benefit from robust economic data and underlying dollar weakness. GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today's trading Seeing convincing buying pressure in Friday’s session, GBP/USD recently rallied to highs of 1.35934, a level last seen in early 2022Recently easing from highs, markets now look to reassess rate-cut bets from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expected to speak tomorrow GBP/USD gains on US trade-tariff uncertainty With Donald Trump renewing …
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US Oil is still in the range established after the first part of May. The commodity prices have been whipsawing throughout the past few weeks. Fears from higher supply have been priced in which can be observed as prices are consolidating - The prices are bouncing sharply from every retest of the mid-month lows. WTI is currently up 1.24% on the day, trading at 62.20. Dive into a technical analysis comprising the 1H timeframe and a look on the Daily picture. US Oil Hourly Chart Analysis close …
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The euro is showing little movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1303, down 0.23% on the day. Eurozone near-term inflation expectations rise Eurozone consumer inflation expectations rose in April to 3.1% over the next year, up from 2.9% in March. Inflation expectations for three and five years were unchanged, at 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. Inflation expectations are carefully monitored by the European Central Bank as expectations that inflation will accelerate can manifest into higher inflation. Still, the reading is not expected to change any minds at the ECB, which is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-po…
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Bullish animal spirits have roared back into the US stock market, reignited by the recent US-China trade tension truce, which led to a 90-day pause in lowered tariffs between the two superpower nations, with an expiration date set on 10 August 2025. Key takeaways The 90-day US-China trade truce, ending August 10, 2025, reduces tariffs and lifts investor sentiment, pushing the Nasdaq 100 higher.Q1 Nvidia earnings are expected to show a 52% EPS jump, fuelling tech optimism and supporting the Nasdaq rally.A close above 21,440 key resistance on the Nasdaq 100 could trigger a move toward the 22,470–22,980 zone.Watch 20,340 key support for the Nasdaq 100…
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The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6415 in the North American session, down 0.44% on the day. Australia's CPI remains at 2.4% Australia's inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.4% y/y for a third straight month, matching the lowest rate since Nov. 2024. The reading was slightly higher than the market estimate of 2.3% but remained within the central bank's inflation target of 2%-3%. Trimmed mean inflation, the central bank's preferred indicator for underlying inflation, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in March. The inflation report was mildly disappointing in that inflation was hotter than expected. Under…
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Log in to today's North American session recap - May 27, 2025 The US dollar is leading all majors in what was a steady green day after coming back from closed US Markets. The risk-on tone that kicked off the week continues to hold, with equity index futures closing higher across most major regions. Once again, Japan's Nikkei leads the charge, surging an impressive 4% on the day. The rally was fueled by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato, who announced the government plans to reduce issuance of longer-term bonds. You can read more on that development here. All US Indices are closing above 1.80% with the Russell 2000 leading the charge at 2.60%, followed by th…
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