Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The US dollar continued its growth against a range of risk assets, indicating sustained demand and the prospect of more cautious action from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. Yesterday's upward revision of Q2 US GDP to a strong 3.8% was the trigger for dollar buying and a selloff in risk assets. Clearly, after contracting in Q1, the US economy is showing unexpected resilience despite the Fed's tight monetary policy. This, in turn, strengthens investors' confidence in the US economy's ability to withstand future challenges. Yesterday's sharp drop in jobless claims also points to a labor market that is once again showing strength, despite some signs of cooli…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but some of them may trigger a market reaction. First and foremost, attention should be paid to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Many consider the PCE index to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, though we don't necessarily agree. Besides, significant deviations from forecasts for the PCE are extremely rare. Thus, in both cases, a market reaction is likely only if the actual readings significantly diverge from expectations. Fundamental Events Analysis: Among Friday'…
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Wall Street Ends Lower Amid Fed Uncertainty U.S. stocks closed Thursday with modest losses as most sectors of the S&P 500 slipped. Investors grew cautious, reassessing expectations about how quickly the Federal Reserve may proceed with further interest rate cuts. Jobless Claims and Economic Growth Labor Department figures showed that initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 for the week ending September 20, after seasonal adjustments. Revised estimates also revealed stronger second-quarter economic growth than previously thought, driven by resilient consumer spending and rising business investments. Fed Officials Urge Caution Austan Goolsbee, president of th…
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also plunged on Thursday. Recall that the British pound had grounds for its latest downward move. We cannot say these reasons were unambiguous—many factors were interpreted by the market against the pound, though they could've been seen the other way around. However, on Thursday, the US GDP and durable goods orders reports could only be interpreted as favorable to the US dollar. Q2 GDP came in at +3.8%, while durable goods orders rose by 2.9%—in both cases, much stronger than forecasts. Thus, more positive reports triggered growth in the US currency, fully supporting the current downward trend, now reaffirmed …
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday after consolidating below the ascending trend line. Thus, from a technical analysis perspective, this was an entirely logical move. The trend has shifted to bearish, so a decline is expected. However, Thursday's drop did not result solely from technical factors. During the US trading session, reports were published that we had previously advised paying attention to: durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Both reports delivered much stronger results than traders and experts had expected, which triggered a sharp strengthening of the dollar. Thus,…
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XRP price attempted a recovery wave above the $2.850 zone but failed. The price is again moving lower and might decline again below the $2.720 zone. XRP price is moving lower below the $2.850 support zone. The price is now trading below $2.840 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $2.850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it dips below $2.720. XRP Price Dips Below Support XRP price attempted a recovery wave above the $2.90 level, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.90 and $2.92 resistance leve…
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SUI is attempting to hold a crucial area as support amid the recent market downturn. Some analysts suggest the altcoin’s price is retesting a make-or-break level that will determine the direction of its next big move. SUI Hits Two-Month Low On Thursday, SUI is retesting the local range lows after an 8% daily drop from the $3.40 area to a key support level. The recent market pullbacks have momentarily halted most bullish rallies, sending leading cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) to an eight-week low of $3,800. Now, SUI’s rally, which was fueled by institutional interest, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), and positive developments for the network, has declined over 21%…
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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $4,050. ETH is now struggling and might decline further if it breaks the $3,850 support zone. Ethereum failed to extend gains and declined below the $4,000 zone. The price is trading below $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,050 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $3,880 and $3,850. Ethereum Price Dips Further Ethereum price remained in a bearish zone after it settled below $4,250, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $4,120 and $4,050 support levels. The bears even p…
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Despite recent fluctuations that saw the Bitcoin price retrace nearly 6% on a weekly basis, market expert Timothy Peterson remains bullish on the leading cryptocurrency’s future. The expert, also a Bitcoin author and economist, predicts that there is at least a 50% chance that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026, a forecast he shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday. Optimistic Projections For The Bitcoin Price Peterson’s optimistic outlook is grounded in his analysis of the Median Bitcoin Yearly Price Path chart, which suggests that October typically marks the beginning of a new upward trend for the Bitco…
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EUR/USD Yesterday's U.S. economic indicators came in better than expected. Q2 GDP was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.3%, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% estimate, and even the trade balance improved to -$85.5 billion from -$103.6 billion, with a forecast of -$95.7 billion—this is the best figure in the past two years. The dollar index rose by 0.71%, the euro lost 71 pips, and broke through the daily timeframe support indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator settled in bearish territory. The price is approaching the target support at 1.1605. A fir…
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GBP/USD Against the backdrop of yesterday's 0.71% rise in the US dollar index, the British pound, which was already experiencing additional pressure from the policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, lost 102 pips. On the weekly chart, the price has broken below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has also consolidated in the territory of a downward trend. The pound is likely to face a prolonged decline ahead. The nearest significant target is the embedded price channel line around the 1.3000 mark. On the daily chart, the price has broken below the nearest support at 1.3364. The next target at 1.3253 is now in play. The decline may continue…
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USD/JPY On the weekly chart, the price has moved above the Balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is speeding up its upward movement. The target along the embedded price channel line at 151.45 is open. A firm hold above this level will open the way to the 157.70 target. Despite the almost unequivocal outlook for this scenario, there is one powerful reason it might not materialize—a financial crisis in the US, accompanied by a deep drop in stock indices—something akin to what happened from February to April, when the S&P 500 plummeted by 21%. True, USD/JPY declined unevenly and unsynchronized during that period, but the crisis was not as systemic as i…
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which was entirely justified this time. The day before, the European currency had been falling for inexplicable reasons, but on Thursday, everything was logical. In the US, important data on Q2 GDP and durable goods orders were published in the afternoon, and both reports delivered strong numbers. The American economy grew not by 3.3% as expected, but by 3.8%. Durable goods orders rose by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.5%. As a result, the pair exhibited the expected movement. We believe that the growth of the American economy is somewhat artificial; however, the fact of grow…
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday. Recall that the "black streak" for the British currency began last week. Over this period, both news events genuinely worked against the pound, and events that could be interpreted in various ways. In almost all cases, traders chose to interpret the news unfavorably for the British currency. Yesterday, the fall of the GBP/USD pair was entirely justified, as US data turned out to be far better than forecasts. US GDP grew in the second quarter by 3.8% versus initial forecasts of about 3%, and durable goods orders increased by 2.9% despite negative expectations. From a technical …
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, but had managed to consolidate below the moving average line the day before. In fact, everyone is now used to the constant back-and-forth around the moving average. Over the past month and a half, the pair's movement has been such that a 100-pip rise is followed by an 80-pip fall. In other words, the European currency rises steadily, but very weakly, with frequent corrections and pullbacks. Unfortunately, with such price action, moving averages are almost useless. Moreover, this kind of price movement displays signs of both a trend and a flat, which is important to understand. It's not exactly sideways moveme…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which is already starting to look at least somewhat unusual. Let's remember: explaining any move after the fact is easy if you want to. We try to avoid that kind of "analysis," where moves are merely explained after they happen, rather than predicted and properly analyzed. What's the point of telling people after a move has occurred why it happened? The pound sterling has been falling for about a week, losing around 300 pips from its latest high. That's quite a lot, but were there solid reasons for such a drop? Technically, yes. This is one of those cases where the market interpreted the information as…
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Bitcoin price extended losses after it traded below $112,500. BTC is now consolidating losses and might decline again to test the $108,500 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $112,500 zone. The price is trading below $111,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at $110,500 and $113,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $113,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to start a recovery wave and stayed below $114,000. BTC declined below the $112,500 and $112,000 support levels to move…
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Earlier today, Ethereum (ETH) slid below the psychologically important $4,000 level for the first time since August 8. The fall in ETH’s price can be attributed to a mix of macroeconomic, structural, and crypto-specific factors. Ethereum Dips Below $4,000, Analyst Explains Why According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, ETH’s latest descent below $4,000 can be blamed on a complex mix of factors. First, a strong US dollar, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance following its September rate cut, dampened risk appetite. Furthermore, rising bond yields and the increasing risk of a US government shutdown have spooked investors, dis…
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On-chain data shows a Dogecoin whale has made a significant withdrawal from cryptocurrency exchange Binance despite the decline in the memecoin’s price. Dogecoin Whale Has Made A Massive Move During The Past Day According to data from cryptocurrency transaction tracker service Whale Alert, a large move has been spotted on the Dogecoin blockchain over the past day. The transfer in question involved the movement of nearly 122.4 million DOGE, worth around $28.5 million at the time the network processed it. Considering the scale of the transaction, it’s likely that a whale entity was behind it. Whales refer to the big-money investors of the cryptocurrency, who can carry so…
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Dark Defender, a prominent XRP analyst, has drawn significant attention to the token, suggesting that XRP may be setting up a move that could take the market by surprise. Despite its struggle to decisively break above the $3 mark, XRP is now forming a Falling Wedge pattern that signals the potential for a powerful breakout by October. Falling Wedge Signals XRP Breakout By October In a recent XRP price analysis, published on Monday, Dark Defender noted that the third-largest cryptocurrency has once again respected its key support levels at $2.85, despite being rejected at $3.13. The XRP price tapped into the primary support trendline, highlighted in orange on the chart,…
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Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium (TSXV: SLI) (NYSE.A: SLI) and Norway’s state-owned petroleum company Equinor (NYSE: EQNR), announced a maiden inferred resource for its Franklin project in the northeast region of Texas. The report for the JV’s first project in the East Texas region of the Smackover Formation highlights the size and quality of its brine position, the company said. Analysts estimate that the Smackover Formation could host more than 4 million tonnes of lithium, enough to power millions of electric vehicles and other electronic devices. Smackover said the project contains the highest reported lithium-in-brine grades …
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Crypto analyst Bobby A has published a four-panel roadmap that ties together Bitcoin dominance, US small-caps, XRP’s monthly price structure, and XRP’s total market capitalization. The overlapping signals, he argues, identify a well-defined take-profit band for XRP between roughly $8.43 and $13.58. “Four charts to rule them all,” he wrote, adding that the market is “clearly positioning itself for higher prices.” Four Charts Signal XRP $8.43–$13.58 Peak On the XRP/USD monthly chart, Bobby plots a multi-month consolidation which is built above “Base Camp 1” and, more recently, above “Base Camp 2.” The structure sits on top of a series of higher lows marked on the chart, wi…
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On Thursday, the Japanese yen was losing ground against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair reaching its highest level in seven weeks. At the time of writing, trading was taking place around 149.88—continuing to rise for the second consecutive day, thanks to strong US economic data that is supporting demand for the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, beating the preliminary estimate of 3.3% and surpassing market expectations. The growth was driven by strong consumer spending and a significant drop in imports. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, included in the GDP report, …
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The final US Q2 GDP data provided significant support for the dollar. Nearly all components of the report came in "in the green"—that is, revised upward. This result added to the already optimistic tone set by recent reports and paved the way for further dollar strength. Now, the last puzzle piece for dollar bulls is the release of the core PCE index (September 26). If this release also lands in the green zone, "dovish" sentiment in the market will be greatly diminished. Even one additional rate cut this year could be called into question. We will discuss inflation further below, but for now, let's return to the figures, which sparked a downward impulse in EUR/USD. Acc…
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Donald Trump wanted to achieve high rates of economic growth through a sharp reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. However, Jerome Powell did not agree to the deal, and the FOMC Committee openly refused to make politically driven decisions. Trump was unable to convince the central bank of the need to lower the interest rate to 1-2%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also wonders why Powell did not promise a rate cut at the upcoming meetings. But Bessent and Trump are in the same boat, while Powell and the Fed's governors are in another. Therefore, the similarity in views on monetary policy between Trump and Bessent is not surprising. Since he failed to overpowe…
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