Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11938 tópicos neste fórum
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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is creating a familiar pattern that points to an incoming altcoin surge. This development comes as the general crypto market continues to show high levels of volatility driven by macro influences, as seen in the majority of October. Bitcoin Dominance To Retest 53% Level: Altcoin Capital Rush? In an X post on November 1, renowned market expert with the username PlanD outlines an insightful analysis of the Bitcoin Dominance chart, which measures the percentage of Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap. Generally, a rise in Bitcoin Dominance indicates the premier cryptocurrency is outperforming other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) while a …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Recent on-chain data shows that a relevant class of Bitcoin investors known as long-term holders has continued to move out of their market positions. LTHs Actively Switching To Distribution In a November 1st post on social media platform X, popular on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an insight into the prevalent structural bias among Bitcoin’s long-term holders. Kesmeci’s analysis hinges on the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric, which tracks the net buying or selling behavior of Bitcoin’s long-term investors over a period of 30 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A ‘Do-Or-Die’ Level As Cycle Faces First Real Test: Analyst A positive reading is usually inter…
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Prominent market analyst Ted Pillows has highlighted the immediate key price levels in the Ethereum market using data on liquidity heatmap. This analysis follows a turbulent price display over the past week during which Ethereum prices fell by 1.64%. Ethereum Traders Brace For Potential Sweep Before Reversal In an X post on November 1, Pillows shares data from Coinglass on the Ethereum liquidity heatmap, identifying significant resting liquidity on both sides of the current price action. Notably, the upper band, which lies between $3,900 and $4,200, represents a heavy concentration of limit orders as many traders are positioning themselves for potential selling activ…
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The EUR/USD pair closed Friday's trading at 1.1538. For the three previous weeks, the pair oscillated within the range of 1.1560-1.1730, and last week was no exception – until Wednesday, the price showed an upward trend, reaching 1.1670, but then the initiative was seized by sellers. Against the backdrop of the overall strengthening of the dollar, USD bears returned to the 15th figure area and, at the end of the American trading session, managed to push through the support level of 1.1560 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe). Traders' attention was focused on three major events of the week. First, the FOMC meeting; second, the European…
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America made a mistake when it initiated a trade war against China. China made a mistake when it not only chose to defend itself but also adopted an aggressive approach. Is this accurate, and who is more right in this situation? In reality, China's retaliatory measures, aimed at strengthening Beijing's negotiating position in its confrontation with Washington, cannot be deemed incorrect. They are logical and consistent. China did not want to follow the path of the European Union, which silently agreed to a "captive" deal that favored the US while leaving Europe with nothing. The well-fed and peaceful EU, which excels at "expressing concern" and "strongly condemning," want…
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In his speech, Bessent reiterated that China would not be able to impose its conditions on the entire world, even though the topic of the entire world did not seem to be under discussion. However, if this is indeed the case, then China has shot itself in the foot. On the one hand, many countries will be forced to purchase rare earth metals from China on any terms because there is no other source. On the other hand, the whole world has been warned that China may "close shop" or use this trump card to dictate its terms for cooperation and trade. America made a similar mistake by starting a trade war —not just with China. I have already stated that neither China nor Canada w…
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Last week, gold began to correct from its historical highs. In the short term, further price declines are possible. Nevertheless, this decrease has not undermined long-term enthusiasm. At the annual World Gold Conference of the London Bullion Market Association, participants predicted that by this time next year, gold may test a resistance level just below $5,000 per ounce, which is 25% higher than current prices. This is the most positive forecast from LBMA participants in recent years, during which they have underestimated the rise in the price of the precious metal. Major financial institutions, such as HSBC and Bank of America, share a similar view: they expect gold t…
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The European currency will start the new month as the underdog. The decline of the euro has continued for more than a month. Although this section of the trend is not impulsive, it does not change the essence of the matter—the demand for the single European currency is falling amid somewhat contradictory news. Most of the truly significant events of October have not been taken seriously by the market. As evidence, there is no need to provide a long list of economic reports or global events. One thing worth mentioning: the dollar has been rising throughout the month, even as the "shutdown" continues in the US. How many predicted the strengthening of the American currency d…
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The British currency cannot boast of more attractive movements or a more accurate wave analysis. Essentially, everything happening with the euro currency is also occurring with the British pound sterling. Demand for it is decreasing just like for the euro, and the news background is interpreted by market participants only in favor of the dollar. Thus, we will have to work with such movements and this wave analysis. The wave analysis of the pound again indicates the completion of the current wave set. The current corrective five-wave structure has taken a convincing form and belongs to wave c, a component of the presumed wave 4. Even if the current wave analysis is incorre…
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The American currency remains a main paradox in the currency market. Whereas its movements from January to June raised no questions, given the news background, many questions have arisen in September and October. First, the corrective structure, which was supposed to be simple and clear, unexpectedly began to complicate and take on a very elongated appearance without any clear reason. Second, the demand for the US dollar is rising (as we examined in the previous two reviews), for which there is no basis at all. As a result, the wave analysis is becoming more complex, and many market participants do not understand what is happening. There will be several important events i…
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For the first time in the last three weeks, the euro-dollar pair closed Friday's trading below the 1.1560 target, exiting the established price range of 1.1560–1.1730. Now the main intrigue lies in the simple question: will the price hold below this support level, or will it return to its previous levels? Throughout October, sellers of EUR/USD repeatedly tested the lower boundary of the aforementioned price range, declining towards the base of the 15 figure. However, each time the southern momentum faded, and buyers regained control of the pair. Last week, the dollar strengthened mainly due to the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on the pace of further rate cuts. It …
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Among the world’s most valuable precious metals, rhodium often remains overlooked. Yet for investors who appreciate scarcity, intrinsic value, and diversification, rhodium offers an intriguing case. If you are considering adding rhodium or other hard assets to your retirement strategy, this guide explains what makes this rare metal unique and how it compares to more established physical precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. What Is Rhodium? Rhodium is a rare silver-white metal known for its corrosion resistance, reflective surface, and exceptional durability. It belongs to the platinum group metals, which also includes platinum, palladium, ruthenium,…
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On Sunday, November 2, tech billionaire Elon Musk renewed his warning about America’s fiscal outlook. He said the federal debt has grown so large that it can’t be fixed without a major jump in productivity. “If AI and robots don’t solve our national debt, we’re toast,” Elon Musk warned, raising fresh concern that US finances are heading toward a breaking point. His comment resurfaced in new coverage of a recent podcast appearance, at a time when the national debt exceeds $38 trillion and interest costs remain high. It climbed from $37Tn in August to $38Tn by October 22, marking the fastest $1Tn increase outside the pandemic period, and coming during an ongoing federal…
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A new BBC report states that Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, arranged a private tour of Buckingham Palace for two cryptocurrency businessmen linked to a £1.4 million agreement involving his ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson. The visit took place in June 2019. The guests were executives from Pegasus Group Holdings, a crypto-mining company that had offered Ferguson up to £1.4M through a commercial deal. That same year, Pegasus publicly named Ferguson as a brand ambassador. The firm asked her to promote an off-grid data center project in Arizona, known as “The Hive,” which was pitched as a renewable energy venture. The tour and networking event have resurfaced …
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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday after breaking through another ascending trendline. As mentioned, there is an ongoing flat trend on the daily timeframe, so the current decline is technical within the global sideways channel. On Friday, the Eurozone published its October inflation report, which triggered another decline in the European currency. From our perspective, this report is merely another excuse for selling the euro, which the market has actively taken advantage of recently. Formally, since inflation has decreased, the European Central Bank has taken one small step closer to easing monetary policy. The …
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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair avoided a new decline on Friday, though in the first half of the day, it was poised to extend its decline. There were no significant news events in the UK or the US throughout the day, so the market sold the British pound again on technical grounds. However, while the European currency is sufficiently distant from the lower boundary of its flat on the daily timeframe, the British pound has approached it closely, having tested it three times. Thus, the GBP/USD pair may transition to a rise supported by macroeconomic and fundamental backgrounds. We recall that throughout October, we observed movements that were completely…
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The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade lower throughout Friday. Did this surprise anyone? Among the interesting events on the last trading day of the previous week, only the Eurozone's first October inflation estimate, which unexpectedly came in at 2.1%, is noteworthy. The previous month recorded a value of 2.2%, and most traders expected a year-on-year decline to 2.1%. Thus, this was precisely one of those cases where expectations completely aligned with reality. Consequently, there was nothing for traders to react to. However, after this report, the European currency once again plummeted, even though this report changes absolutely nothing. It should be understood …
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The GBP/USD currency pair traded lower on Friday, continuing its downward trajectory throughout the past trading week, as the market seized any opportunity to sell the pound and buy dollars. We still believe that the nature of the current decline in the pair is purely technical; market manipulation may be occurring, and the fundamental and macroeconomic background has little relevance to the current strengthening of the US dollar. On Friday, there were no news releases in either the US or the UK, yet sell-offs continued in the first half of the day. Having analyzed the nature of the current movement, several important points should be highlighted. Unfortunately, there is …
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Bitcoin price is again declining below $110,000. BTC could continue to move down if it stays below the $110,000 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $109,500 support. The price is trading below $109,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $109,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $107,400 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $110,500 pivot level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below $110,000 and $109,500 to enter a bearish zone. The decline was such that…
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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $3,850. ETH is moving lower below $3,800 and might decline further if it trades below $3,680. Ethereum started another bearish wave after it failed to clear $3,920. The price is trading below $3,800 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a rising channel with support at $3,840 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $3,680. Ethereum Price Dips Again Ethereum price failed to stay in a positive zone and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below $3,880 and $3,850 to enter a bearish zone. There was a clear mov…
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XRP price started a fresh decline from $2.550. The price is now showing bearish signs and is at risk of another decline in the near term. XRP price failed to continue higher above $2.550 and corrected some gains. The price is now trading below $2.50 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.580 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above $2.410. XRP Price Dips Again XRP price formed a short-term top near $2.550 and started a downside correction, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price dipped below the $2.520 and $2.50 levels. There wa…
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Trade Analysis of Friday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday for somewhat dubious reasons. On the last trading day of the week, the only event that might have interested novice traders was the Eurozone inflation report. Recall that inflation reports in the EU are released in two estimates, with the first being the most important. On Friday, the first estimate for October was released, showing a year-on-year rate of 2.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts. Thus, there was essentially nothing to react to, and there were no grounds for the euro to fall again. Setting aside the comparison of forecast versus re…
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Trade Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Friday but bounced back by the end of the day. As a reminder, the British pound has been falling for an entire month with no clear reason for the decline. On Friday, the European currency could theoretically drop on the EU inflation report, whereas the pound has no grounds for falling at all. There were no significant reports or events in either the UK or the US during the day. Therefore, it can be said that the illogical decline of the pair continues. However, on the daily timeframe, the price reached the lower line of the sideways channel (1.3140) and has bee…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Report: There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday, and some are important. Today, the business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US will be released as final estimates for October. Recall that second estimates have minimal impact on market sentiment, but the ISM business activity index will be published in the US, which is reported only in one estimate. Therefore, all attention will be on this. Analysis of Fundamental Events: There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Monday. In particular, there are speeches from FOMC members Mary Daly and Lisa Cook. H…
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Solana started a fresh decline from the $188 zone. SOL price is now consolidating losses below $180 and might decline further below $175. SOL price started a fresh decline below $185 and $180 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $182 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $192 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another increase if the bulls defend $175 or $172. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price extended gains above $180 and $182, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL even surpassed $188 before the bears appeared. A high was formed near $189…
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