Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The bull crypto market *is* over, for crypto at least. You should have sold. To be clear, the whole of twitter was saying altseason is here last week. So where is it? What if you’re wrong and the bull market is actually over? And you still didn’t take advantage? Every YouTuber and crypto influencer is telling us to HODL. No way they could all be wrong, right? (Source: TradingView) Just one week after the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note on Tuesday. He admitted the US labor market is softening, inflation is still running hot, and policymakers face what he called “two-way risk.” “There is no risk-free path forward,” Powell said, le…
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Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stock Rally Takes a Breath Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History Says Asian stock markets took a pause on Thursday after their recent surge, as investors waited for new reasons to buy. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen faced significant selling pressure, especially against the euro and Swiss franc. The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) slipped by 0.1%, coming after a very strong period of rallying over 5% this month and 9% this quarter. Japan's Nikkei index was up slightly by 0.2%, having jumped 7% this month and 13% this quarter. Chinese stocks were the best performers: the CSI300 ind…
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The crypto market is back in deep red today as Bitcoin BTC ▼-0.80% once again failed to reclaim the crucial $113,500 resistance. After briefly attempting a bounce, BTC has been pushed lower and is now hovering near the weekly lows. Market bears are calling for a potential dip toward $107,000, right in line with the “max pain” zone ahead of a massive $17.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry in just two days. Historically, Bitcoin tends to move toward this level during large expirations, suggesting a possible final flush before a reversal. (Source: Coinglass) Ethereum ETH ▼-3.38% has also broken below the $4,000 mark, adding to the bearish pressure across altcoins. Most major…
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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Therefore, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The latest labor market data and the changed Fed monetary policy outlook support bullish traders, but the bears a…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, working through the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A rebound from this zone favored the pound and led to some growth toward 1.3482. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587. The wave situation has turned "bearish." This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, but the last downward wave easily broke the previous low. The news background was mostly neutral for the pound la…
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The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday, September 25, 2025, followed by a press conference from Chairman Martin Schlegel. It is expected that the central bank will once again keep the key rate at 0.0%, marking a second consecutive meeting without changes after six straight cuts since March of last year. Market expectations do not point to further cuts this year, while any potential moves next year remain uncertain. Investors and traders should closely monitor Schlegel's remarks for signals that could indicate a review of the negative rate policy. This decision will have a significant impact on the Swiss franc's exchange rate and p…
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Looking at how safe havens have performed so far this year, one thing is clear: fear is driving markets. With Donald Trump as US President, tariffs were swiftly rolled out, and businesses, even nations, had to shield themselves from uncertainty. This flight to safety has funneled trillions of dollars into bonds, high-quality equities, crypto, and gold. BTC USD rocketed to new all-time highs in August, breaking $124,500, but gold has truly stolen the show with its relentless climb. In 2025, gold prices have trended strictly upward, a pattern that’s hard to miss. According to CME data, the yellow metal is up nearly +45% over the past ten months, jumping from about $2,640 i…
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Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.3442 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.3383 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.3405 – a historical resistance level (light blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3442 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may start moving do…
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Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.1706 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1720 – the 50% retracement level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: On Thursday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may conti…
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After a strong price performance over the past month, driven by growing interest in the Avalanche ecosystem, AVAX now faces a key resistance area that could delay its long-awaited rally. Institutional Momentum Fuels Avalanche Price On Wednesday, Avalanche continued its recovery from the start-of-week pullback and is currently retesting the $34 area as support. The cryptocurrency recently fell to the $29 level, but quickly bounced toward a seven-month high of $36.1 on Tuesday, fueled by institutional interest in the ecosystem. AgriFORCE Growing Systems recently announced its rebrand to a crypto treasury company under the name AVAX One, marking the first Nasdaq-listed en…
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Gold prices have declined but remain close to all-time highs as traders—encouraged by upbeat US economic data and noting diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials this week—have reassessed their expectations for future monetary policy. Gold slipped to nearly $3,719 per ounce, down $70 from the record set on Tuesday. Prices dropped on Wednesday after data showed US new home sales in August unexpectedly rose to their fastest pace since early 2022, easing some concerns about a slowdown in the world's largest economy. The dollar climbed to its highest level in almost two weeks, making gold more expensive for most buyers. Traders also weighed comments from US offici…
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If the White House interferes with the Federal Reserve, why shouldn't the central bank express its view about financial markets? Scott Bessent wonders why the Fed Chair hasn't signaled future rate cuts—which, according to the Treasury Secretary, should drop by 100–150 bps by the end of 2025. Still, Jerome Powell's statement that stocks are "fairly highly valued" made a much bigger impression on investors. The S&P 500 posted three dozen record highs in 2025, rising 35% off its April lows and adding $16 trillion in market cap. Greed and FOMO were so intense that the broad index went 107 sessions without a single drop of 2% or more in a day—the longest winning streak sin…
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Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark. This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn. How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stoc…
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Yesterday, Bitcoin stopped just shy of the $114,000 mark, and during today's Asian trading, it quickly dropped back to around $111,500. Apparently, this level is where it's currently most comfortable trading. Ethereum fell below $4,000, triggering $141 million in long liquidations. This sharp market move came as a surprise to many traders who had bet on continued growth for the second-largest cryptocurrency. The break below the psychologically important $4,000 mark triggered a chain reaction—exchanges began to close leveraged positions, which further intensified the downtrend automatically. Several factors contributed to this crash. First, general uncertainty in global f…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3467 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below zero, limiting the pair's downside potential. Long positions on the rebound from 1.3434 (Scenario #2) returned about 15 pips of profit. News that US new home sales came in much higher than economists had forecast strengthened the dollar and led to a decline in the British pound. Investors immediately reconsidered their positions, anticipating good economic growth momentum. The prospect of keeping rates higher for longer returned appeal to the US dollar. Today, the Confederation of British Industry will release UK retail sales figur…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 148.49 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved sharply above zero, limiting the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level allowed for selling according to Scenario #2, but it ended with a stop-out as the pair failed to drop as expected. The sharp jump in US new home sales in August strengthened the dollar and sent the Japanese yen lower. This unexpected surge in real estate activity signaled the resilience of the US economy, which immediately impacted investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. The jump in sales exceeded analyst forecasts, reinforcing the b…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1755 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below zero, which limited the pair's further downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and missed the entire downward move. Long positions on the rebound from 1.1731 yielded about 10 pips in profit. The release of strong new home sales data in the US triggered a rise in the dollar and a decline in the euro. The optimistic figures prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Today, we'll see the preliminary German GfK Consumer Sentiment Index, private sector lending figur…
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[XPD/USD] – [Thursday, September 25, 2025] Although the RSI is in the Neutral-Bearish zone, but the position of EMA(50) & EMA(200) still in a Golden Cross configuration confirms the strengthening bias for XPD/USD. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1271.29 2. Resistance. 1 : 1242.22 3. Pivot : 1225.82 4. Support. 1 : 1196.75 5. Support. 2 : 1180.35 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If XPD/USD breaks out and closes above 1,225.82, it has the potential to continue strengthening up to 1,242.22. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1,242.22 is breached and closes above, Palladium has the potential to test the next resistance level at 1,271.29. Invalidation Le…
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[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, September 25, 2025] Although both EMAs have not yet formed a Death Cross, but the RSI is in the Neutral-Bearish zone, which may bring the Nasdaq 100 index down to its nearest support level today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 24801.4 2. Resistance. 1 : 24652.3 3. Pivot : 24518.9 4. Support. 1 : 24369.8 5. Support. 2 : 24236.4 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If #NDX breaks down and closes below 24,518.9, it is likely to continue its decline down to 24,369.8. Momentum Extension Bias: If 24,369.8 is breached and closes below, it has the potential to further weaken down to 24,236.4. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The dow…
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The US dollar continued its rise against a range of risk assets, indicating sustained demand and trader concerns about future Federal Reserve policy. Strong data on US new home sales contributed to further dollar strength. Traders revised their forecasts on future Fed policy, expecting the central bank to keep rates higher for longer than previously thought. This increased the dollar's appeal as a more profitable and reliable asset. Meanwhile, the impact was strongly felt on European markets. The euro noticeably declined against the dollar, raising concerns among European exporters. A stronger dollar makes European goods more expensive for American consumers, potentially …
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Why is crypto down today? Why did the BTC USD price slide below 112K, and Ethereum break under 4K? The entire crypto market shed more than $162 billion in value overnight, with total market cap now at $3.81 trillion. Liquidations have surged to over $400 million overnight, with the biggest loss of $29 million in ETH ▼-3.38% long. (source – Coinglass Liquidation Data) The current situation could be a textbook flush as overleveraged traders are wiped out in a classic shakeout. It could be the end, but it could be just another chapter in crypto’s volatile cycles. But as we predicted yesterday, the current slump is not over. EthereumPriceMarket CapETH$485.90B24h7d30d1…
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders locked in a significant amount of gain around the time of the latest price plunge. Bitcoin HODLer Whales Have Shown Profit-Taking Spree Recently As explained by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, long-term holder whales have participated in some profit-taking recently. “Long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago. This cohort is considered to represent the HODLers of the market, who rarely sell even in the face of volatility. That said, there are times when these investors do participate in selloffs, and one such instance seems to hav…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but some of them are truly important. Most notably, the US reports on durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. The third estimate is the final one, and the first and second releases are often revised—thus, the last release carries the most weight. The durable goods report is also significant, as it reflects changes in US consumer demand for major, high-value goods. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index will be published, but this is far from the most critical release. Fundamental Events Analysis: Among Thursday's fundamental events, Federal Res…
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Dogecoin started a fresh decline below the $0.250 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might dip further if it stays below $0.2550. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.250 level. The price is trading below the $0.250 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.2450 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could extend losses if there is a move below $0.230. Dogecoin Price Turns Red Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it closed below $0.2550, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.250 and $0.2450 support levels. T…
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Stellar (XLM) is showing signs of resilience after weeks of consolidation, with the cryptocurrency defending the crucial $0.37 horizontal support level. At the time of writing, XLM trades around $0.36, down 0.56% on the daily charts and 4.2% weekly. Despite the short-term weakness, analysts suggest that the altcoin’s recent bounce could set the stage for a move toward $0.50 and beyond. The $0.37 level has historically acted as both resistance and support, making it a decisive zone for future price action. A reclaim above this mark could push XLM toward the long-standing descending resistance near $0.48, with a breakout potentially triggering a stronger rally. Technica…
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