Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Yesterday, the new UK budget was published. It is expected that by the beginning of the next decade, around 5.4 million British workers will be paying income tax at a rate between 40% and 45%. However, the Labor Party's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the freeze on personal income tax thresholds, which is currently in effect, will be extended for another three years — meaning they will not be raised in line with inflation. Critics have called such measures a form of fiscal drag and a hidden tax raid. Clearly, this is a continuation of the tactics used by Reeves' Conservative predecessors to avoid political backlash from effectively raising tax rates. This freez…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Thursday, the market may continue its upward movement from the 1.3237 level (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.3282, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). From this level, the price may possibly roll back downward toward 1.3232, the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Composite Analysis: Indicator analysis — upwardFibonacci levels — upwardVolumes — upwardCandlestick analysis — upwardTrend analysis — upwardBollinger Bands — upwardWeekly chart — upwardOverall conclusion: Uptrend. Alternative Scenario:From the 1.3237 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving upwa…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Thursday, the market may continue moving upward from the 1.1594 level (yesterday's daily candle close), aiming for 1.1608 — the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward toward 1.1575, the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Composite Analysis: Indicator analysis — upwardFibonacci levels — upwardVolumes — upwardCandlestick analysis — upwardTrend analysis — upwardBollinger Bands — upwardWeekly chart — upwardOverall conclusion: Uptrend. Alternative Scenario:On Thursday, the market may continue upward from the 1.1594 level (yesterday's daily candle clo…
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The demand for gold remains strong amid growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut this December. Expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve are boosting investor interest in gold, a traditionally safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and declining interest rates. Gold, which does not yield interest income, becomes more attractive relative to alternative investments such as bonds when their yields fall. Additionally, the current weakness of the U.S. dollar makes gold more accessible to buyers using other currencies, further boosting demand. However, it is important to note that the dynamics of gold prices are influence…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 156.55 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips. The data on the decline in U.S. jobless claims provided some support for the dollar, but the risks of further Federal Reserve rate cuts outweighed that support. This led to another weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. Investors continue to lean towards the view that the Fed will be forced to continue easing monetary policy amid slowing economic growth. This explains the growing inte…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British PoundThe price test at 1.3179 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and driving a rise towards the target level of 1.3235. The publication of the UK budget sparked volatility, with the pound emerging as the winner. Investors seemingly perceived the budget initiatives as evidence of the government's commitment to stabilizing the economic situation. Specifically, the tax increases and spending cuts, while painful for the population and businesses, are viewed as necessary steps to restore confidence in the British economy. H…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the European CurrencyThe price test at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips, and that was the end of it. The brief rise in the dollar, driven by news of a decline in new jobless claims in the United States, failed to reverse the overall downward trend in the American currency. The expectation of further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve remains the main factor weighing on the dollar. Today, a rather interesting set of reports is expected in the first half of the day. Th…
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Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.69%, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.82%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.67%. Global stock indices are close to recovering November losses, as rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have revived markets after a sell-off caused by concerns over inflated AI valuations. Support for the markets also came from positive macroeconomic data regarding the US labor market and durable goods orders, indicating the resilience of the American economy despite the challenges it faces. Particularly, the technology sector has once again become the growth engine. The potential of artificia…
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Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council, has suddenly become the market’s base case for the next Fed chair – and crypto investors are already gaming out what a “Hassett Fed” would mean. According to Bloomberg-sourced reporting, Hassett has “emerged as the frontrunner” for President Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve, seen as the candidate most aligned with Trump’s preference for lower interest rates. Earlier disclosures showed Hassett previously served as an adviser to Coinbase and holds at least $1 million in Coinbase stock. How Will Hassett Impact The Crypto Market? For crypto allocators, that combination of macro dovishness and …
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Yesterday, Bitcoin saw a significant rise, returning to the $90,000 area. This opens the door to an update of the broader resistance around $93,000. Ethereum also returned to the $3,000 mark and is now trying to consolidate at this level. The increase in risk appetite was fueled by the sustained strength of global stock indices, which also affected the cryptocurrency market. However, it's important to remember that the bearish market we observed just a week ago has not gone anywhere, and the current movement should still be viewed as a pursuit of sellers'sellers' stop losses, not as the resumption of a new bullish market. The cryptocurrency market has always been charact…
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The market woke up fast last night as Bitcoin price bounced sharply from its recent bottom that had been forming for days, pulling back above $90,000 while ETH USD finally cracked the $3,000 level again. This jump surprised almost no one. ETF flow data has been turning green for two straight days, with both BlackRock and Fidelity stepping back in. SOL and BNB followed with the same 3% gains, adding to the sense that the worst may have already passed for the crypto market. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Bitcoin Price Technical Shift and Market Structure…
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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair experienced several suitable entry points into the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to understand what transpired. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1576 level and planned to base my trading decisions on it. The drop and formation of a false breakout around 1.1576 provided a buying opportunity for the euro; however, the pair did not show significant gains. In the second half of the day, long positions based on a false breakout from 1.1560 allowed for re-entry into long positions, resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:The data on the decline in initial jobless claims in the U.…
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The dollar continued to lose ground yesterday—especially against the British pound—and there were sufficient reasons for it. Despite a brief impulse in the dollar after the release of data on a decline in U.S. initial jobless claims, the overall trend remains negative for the American currency. This small positivity was insufficient to compensate for the prevailing market expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The market continues to assess the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts as high, which puts substantial pressure on the dollar. The publication of the UK budget was favorable for buyers of the British pound. Given the measures taken to clo…
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Bitcoin is sitting at a critical crossroads once again, hovering dangerously close to a liquidity pocket that could trigger deeper losses if bulls fail to respond. Momentum has slowed, volatility is tightening, and attention is now locked on one key level that could determine whether BTC stages a recovery or slips further into the trap below $82,000. Key Resistance at $89,000 Remains Bitcoin’s Biggest Hurdle Analyst Lennaert Snyder highlighted in a recent update that BTC is currently locked in a critical fight for the key $89,000 resistance level. He acknowledged the recent price action, noting that Bitcoin had a “nice bounce” from the support box he posted yesterday, ad…
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[US Dollar Index] Although all technical indicators show that sellers are quite dominant, indicating a potential move toward its nearest support level, today is a national holiday for Thanksgiving Day, which may lead to reduced volatility in the market, especially during the U.S. session. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 100.07 2. Resistance. 1 : 99.81 3. Pivot : 99.67 4. Support. 1 : 99.41 5. Support. 2 : 99.27 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 99.41, #USDX has the potential to test 99.27. Momentum Extension Bias: If 99.27 is broken and closes below, #USDX will likely continue its decline to 99.01. Invalidatio…
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[Nasdaq 100] With the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bullish zone and EMA(50) above EMA(200), indicating a Golden Cross, all of this suggests that dominant buyers will cause #NDX to move higher toward its nearest resistance level Today. However, with the national holiday for Thanksgiving, there is a possibility of a decrease in volatility, especially in the U.S. market session. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25487.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 25363.0 3. Pivot : 25174.7 4. Support. 1 : 25050.0 5. Support. 2 : 24861.7 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks out and closes above 25363.0, it may test the level at 25487.7. Momentum Extension Bias:…
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Dogecoin started a steady increase above $0.150 against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might correct lower to $0.1480. DOGE price started a fresh increase above $0.1450 and $0.150. The price is trading above the $0.150 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.1490 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could aim for a fresh increase if it remains stable above $0.1480. Dogecoin Price Holds Gains Dogecoin price started a fresh increase after it settled above $0.1420, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE climbed above the $0.150 resistance to enter a positive zo…
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According to trading records and company filings, Grayscale’s new spot Dogecoin ETF — ticker GDOG — opened quietly, pulling in just $1.4 million in trading volume on its first day on NYSE Arca. Muted Debut On NYSE Arca Reports have disclosed that the debut fell well short of some public forecasts. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas had suggested the fund might see roughly $10–12 million in opening-day volume, a target that the actual figures did not meet. That gap has drawn quick commentary from traders and analysts, who say the launch exposure was smaller than expected for a high-profile first spot product. Grayscale’s paperwork shows the ETF began life with holdings o…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are significant. Essentially, the entire macroeconomic background of the day boils down to a single consumer confidence index in Germany. Clearly, this report is likely to provoke at best a very minor market reaction and will not impact the broader picture. In the UK, the European Union, and the U.S., event calendars are empty today. Analysis of Fundamental Events: There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Wednesday. In the European Union, speeches by European Central Bank representatives Cipollone, de Guindos, and Machado will take…
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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, despite experiencing a decline during the day. The macroeconomic background was relatively weak. Essentially, there was only one report to highlight—durable goods orders in the U.S., which, as expected, prompted a market reaction but did not significantly affect overall markets. What did we observe? The report came out more positively than anticipated, which led to a predictable rise in the dollar. However, the trend on the hourly timeframe shifted upward a few days ago, the daily timeframe remains flat, and the global trend continues to…
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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Wednesday, though there were few compelling reasons for the move. The only significant macroeconomic report of the day (durable goods orders in the U.S.) was positive (and prompted a rise in the dollar), while the publication of the final budget draft for 2026 in the UK cannot clearly be described as positive (though it's possible to find a silver lining in any barrel of tar). Nevertheless, by the end of the day, the British pound appreciated. We have repeatedly warned that much of the GBP/USD pair's decline over the past two months has been illogical. In other words, …
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XRP price started a steady increase above $2.20. The price is now consolidating gains and might aim for another increase if it clears $2.280. XRP price started a fresh increase above the $2.220 zone. The price is now trading above $2.20 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $2.180 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it clears $2.280. XRP Price Holds Ground XRP price started a decent upward move above $2.10 and $2.120, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price gained pace for a clear move above the $2.20 resistance. The bulls even pumped the pric…
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A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how XRP has bounced off the bottom level of a Parallel Channel and could be headed toward its midway line. XRP Recently Found Support At The Lower Line Of A Parallel Channel In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about a technical analysis (TA) pattern forming in the 3-day price of XRP. The pattern in question is a “Parallel Channel,” appearing whenever an asset’s price consolidates between two parallel trendlines. The upper level of the channel provides resistance to the asset, making tops probable at it. Similarly, the lower line can facilitate bottom formations by acting as a source of support. A breakout of e…
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Ethereum price started a recovery wave and surged above $3,0000. ETH might continue to rise if it clears the $3,120 resistance. Ethereum started a recovery wave above $2,950 and $3,000. The price is trading above $3,000 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,880 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above the $3,120 zone. Ethereum Price Rallies Over 5% Ethereum price managed to stay above $2,850 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $2,880 and $2,950 levels. The bulls were able to push the price ab…
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As the cryptocurrency ecosystem matures and evolves, a new narrative is gaining traction that positions XRP for an upcoming institutional-driven surge that could redefine market expectations. With momentum building around XRP exchange-traded funds, one prominent analyst now believes the asset could be on the verge of a rally so large it may outperform Bitcoin’s own ETF-driven surge. Why Analysts Believe XRP Is Poised For A Larger Upside Than Bitcoin XRP is entering its ETF chapter, and the scale of what’s coming could make Bitcoin look small. Crypto analyst Xfinancebull mentioned on X that early players like Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin, and Canary Funds are already live…
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