Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11949 tópicos neste fórum
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Bitcoin is trading around $103,125 above the 1/8 Murray level, bouncing after reaching the bottom of the descending trend channel formed on October 24th around $98,400. If Bitcoin pulls back towards the psychological $100,000 level in the next few hours, we could see this area as a buying opportunity, as we expect it to continue recovering some of its losses, and we believe this will be seen as a buy signal. Should Bitcoin consolidate below the psychological $100,000 level, it could test the key support around the -1/8 Murray level located at $96,875. The Eagle indicator is showing oversold signals, so any pullback while the price trades above $100,000 will be seen as an …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Gold is trading around $3,984 within the descending trend channel formed on October 22nd and above the 200 EMA and the 21 SMA, suggesting the possibility of an upward move, though this remains to be seen. Gold is close to a decisive breakout above the descending trend channel, and we could expect a strong upward move, potentially reaching the 6/8 Murray level around $4,062 and even the 7/8 Murray level around $4,218. Conversely, if gold falls below the 200 EMA at $3,961, we could expect the bearish cycle to resume, potentially reaching the 5/8 Murray level around $3,906 and even the 4/8 Murray level around $3,750. The outlook remains bullish for gold. As long as the instr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The HYPE price has rebounded sharply, recovering from recent volatility that saw a $44 million whale liquidation earlier this week, which rattled traders. After plunging to around $36, the HYPE price surged over 7% in the past 24 hours, now trading around $40 as bullish sentiment returns. The rally follows its landmark listings on Binance and Coinbase, a move that has sparked renewed confidence in the fast-rising DeFi Layer 1 network. According to on-chain data from Coinglass, funding rates have flipped positive while whale accumulation has increased. Analysts suggest the next HYPE price target could be the $51.15 resistance level if buying pressure continues, with RSI…
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Trade Analysis for Wednesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair once again exhibited absurd movements on Wednesday. This time, the market ignored positive U.S. macroeconomic data, reaffirming our assumptions about the illogical current strength of the dollar and the independence of the ongoing movement from fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. Recall that on Monday, the ISM manufacturing activity index from the U.S. was ignored, coming in much worse than expected. On Wednesday, the ISM services activity index was also disregarded, which was significantly better than forecasts. Simultaneously, the market paid no attention to the ADP report, wh…
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Trade Analysis for Wednesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Wednesday. If the U.S. dollar had continued to rise yesterday, it would not have come as a surprise, as there were solid reasons for the dollar to rise—namely, the ISM services activity index and the ADP report both showed higher values than anticipated. However, there is still very little logic in the current market movements. More precisely, the dependency of movements on macroeconomic and fundamental factors is minimal. The GBP/USD pair continues to trade based solely on technical factors. The situation we observe is as follows: on Monday and Tuesday, the doll…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. Germany will release its industrial production report for September, while the Eurozone will publish retail sales data for September. It is important to remind novice traders that on Monday and Wednesday, the market ignored much more significant ISM activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors from the U.S., as well as the only labor market report currently published—the ADP report. Market movements remain purely technical. Analysis of Fundamental Events: Many fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday, but only one is truly significant. The Bank of…
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Solana started a fresh decline below the $162 zone. SOL price is now attempting to recover and faces hurdles near the $166 zone. SOL price started a fresh decline below $165 and $162 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $165 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $155 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could continue to move up if it clears $165 and $166. Solana Price Attempts Recovery Wave Solana price failed to remain stable above $175 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL declined below the $170 and $165 support leve…
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Despite favorable conditions for growth, the U.S. dollar remains unnoticed by market participants. A fairly positive ADP report regarding the U.S. labor market only slightly helped the dollar strengthen its position yesterday. Traders seemed to prefer waiting for more official employment data from the Labor Department; however, it will take a while before the next report is released, likely due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Strong labor market indicators could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish policy, as mentioned last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Today, several reports are expected in the first half of the day, including changes in industr…
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An analyst has pointed out how Cardano is retesting a level that has helped the asset’s price rebound multiple times during the past year. Cardano Is Retesting The Support Level Of A Parallel Channel In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a pattern forming in the daily price of Cardano. The pattern in question is a Parallel Channel, a type of consolidation channel from technical analysis (TA). A Parallel Channel forms whenever an asset’s price trades between two parallel trendlines. If the channel has a positive slope relative to the graph axes, the pattern is called an Ascending Channel. Similarly, the trendlines pointing down create a Descending Channel.…
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Bitcoin has just slightly recovered to around $104,000, but for now, this looks like nothing more than a minor correction before another plunge in the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum has also reached $3,480 and then paused. According to recent data, long-term investors in Bitcoin sold approximately 400,000 BTC last month, amounting to $45 billion. Clearly, such a volume of sales disrupted market stability, which we are currently witnessing. Ongoing selling pressures compound the current market crash, as seasoned participants actively realize profits. This is mainly due to macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from the U.S. government shutdown, which continues to affect all …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price level at 1.1490 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test at 1.1490 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the execution of Sell Scenario #2 on the euro, resulting in a 20-pip decline in the pair. The ADP data showed an increase of 42,000 in the number of employed, while economists expected a smaller increase. This surprise prompted many to revise their forecasts for the labor market, as the ADP is often viewed as a preliminary indicator of the broader e…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the price level at 1.3025 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair did not fall, which resulted in a loss. According to the ADP report, the number of jobs exceeded economists' forecasts. This unexpected jump strengthened the U.S. dollar, but there was no significant sell-off in GBP/USD. Today promises to be another interesting day. A decision on the main interest rate and the Bank of England's monetary policy report are ahead, along with a speech from Governor Andrew Bailey. While t…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 153.88 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, which limited the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy dollars and missed a slight upward movement. The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar after the ADP report on the U.S. labor market came in above economists' expectations. This unexpected spike in optimism regarding the U.S. economy triggered an immediate response in the currency market, leading to a sharp increase in demand for the dollar and, consequently, a drop in the yen, which is traditionally viewed as a sa…
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Yesterday, US stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.37%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.38%. The indices recovered as buyers returned to the market after the recent dip. Asian indices rose by 1.1% following the sharpest two-day decline since April of this year, with the Hong Kong and Japanese indices among the leaders in growth. All 11 industry groups in the index, except for one, demonstrated growth. Shares of Softbank Group Corp. increased by 1% after reports that the company is exploring the possibility of acquiring American chipmaker Marvell Technology Inc. earlier this year. The rise in As…
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Despite a slight recovery in cryptocurrency prices on Wednesday, experts remain divided on the future direction of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). The market is at a crossroads, with some analysts anticipating a deeper correction, while others see the potential for a renewed recovery. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Hits 52-Week Low According to a report from Barron’s, all three cryptocurrencies have attracted attention from major exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and President Trump’s administration, spurring hopes that increased institutional adoption could help stabilize volatility. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently trading more than 20% below…
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Gold has stabilized after its largest weekly gain, as traders assessed the prospects for U.S. interest rates following the release of private-sector employment data. The price of gold holds just above $3,980 per ounce after an increase of 1.2% on Wednesday. The ADP Research data indicated that the number of jobs grew by 42,000 after two months of decline. While this modest growth alleviates concerns about a more rapid deterioration in the labor situation, it aligns with the overall decline in labor demand. The rise in gold prices, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, reflects ongoing uncertainty in the global economy. Although the labor market data showed some po…
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What to Know: Gemini launches XRP perpetuals for EU traders, offering up to 100x leverage and $USDC settlement on a regulated venue. The move expands derivatives liquidity and price discovery for XRP, likely tightening spreads and attracting market makers across pairs. Increased hedging and funding strategies can accelerate alt rotations, boosting on-chain activity across wallets, bridges, and DEX aggregators. As EU XRP perps spur altcoin rotations, Best Wallet Token’s $16.8M presale is a smart purchase now. Gemini just switched on XRP perpetual contracts for EU customers, letting traders go long or short with up to 100x leverage and no monthly expiry. Perps settle i…
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Overheating is the best term to describe the situation in the US stock market at the beginning of November. Following an explosive jump of more than 40% from the April lows, the S&P 500 has pulled back. The broad market index weighs the pros and cons of continuing its upward march. The artificial intelligence sector is a powerful bullish driver, but much of its potential has already been factored into prices. Moreover, investors are plagued by doubts about whether the massive investments in AI will yield satisfactory returns. Dynamics of AI investment loans From a fundamental viewpoint, the S&P 500 is clearly overvalued. Today's stock market bears similaritie…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the market, from the level of 1.1491 (yesterday's daily candle close), may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.1534 – the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.1516 – the 76.4% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: On Thursday, the market, from the level of 1.1491 (yesterday's da…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The current Bitcoin price crash is being driven by major sell-offs from large whales as they offload massive early BTC holdings. In addition to this, though, there are also chart formations that suggest that the Bitcoin price crash is only in its beginning stages. This comes after the cryptocurrency closed the month of October in the red for the first time in seven years, setting a precedent for a likely bearish close to the year. Higher Low Trendline Needs To Hold The current Bitcoin price downtrend began after the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high back in August. The rejection at $126,000 created the cascade of bearish pressure that has now plagued the market, cau…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the market, from the level of 1.3046 (yesterday's daily candle close), may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.3110 – the 161.8% target level (red dotted line). From this level, the price may possibly pull back downward toward 1.3077 – the 176.4% target level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3046 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may con…
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The U.S. dollar failed to regain its leading position against a number of risk assets — including the euro, pound, and Japanese yen — despite a rather impressive ADP employment report for the U.S. labor market. Federal Reserve Board member Steven Miran called the data showing an increase in employment at American companies in October a "pleasant surprise," although he reiterated that interest rates should be lower. According to data published Wednesday by ADP Research, private-sector employment increased by 42,000 after a revised decline of 29,000 the previous month. The median economist estimate had expected growth of 30,000. The ADP report took on greater significance …
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The British pound recovered slightly yesterday in anticipation that the Bank of England will most likely keep interest rates unchanged today — a rather controversial decision that would end a series of quarterly cuts. Markets and economists expect the U.K. central bank to maintain its key rate at 4%, slowing the gradual quarterly reduction that has been in place since August 2024. A press conference led by Governor Andrew Bailey will follow the decision. The decision to keep rates steady reflects a balanced assessment of the current economic situation. On the one hand, inflation has shown some signs of easing; on the other, there are ongoing concerns about the pace of ec…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rebounded from the 200.0% Fibonacci correction level at 1.3024, turned in favor of the British pound, and began to rise toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3110. A consolidation of the pair's rate below 1.3024 would signal a continuation of the pound's decline toward the next level at 1.2931. The wave structure remains bearish. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent downward wave (which has been forming for three weeks now) long ago broke the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar, yet bullish traders have not taken advantage of …
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The GBP/JPY pair has been unable to hold above the key psychological level of 201.00. Prices have retreated to 200.75 ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy announcement. The overall trend of declining inflationary pressure, fiscal challenges, as well as slower wage growth and rising unemployment, provide the Bank of England with room for potential monetary policy easing. Moreover, investors are pricing in roughly a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut today, while the chances of a rate reduction by year-end are estimated at around 70%. The Bank of England's decision will play a crucial role in determining the pound's direction and could give momentum to t…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
