Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
6896 tópicos neste fórum
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical: Poised for a potential bullish breakout as US CPI looms”, published last Thursday, 11 September 2025. The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected bullish breakout above the minor “Ascending Triangle” range resistance at 45,780 and rallied by 1.3% to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 46,140 on last Friday, 12 September 2025, during the early Asian session. Thereafter, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index’s minor/short-term bullish momentum fizzled out and staged a corrective pull-b…
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Bitcoin is knocking on the $117,000 level, while Ethereum isn't feeling too confident, trading around the same levels as at the week's start. While markets await a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve and another push toward all-time highs, analytics firm Santiment notes that ahead of the FOMC meeting, greed and bullish sentiment for BTC have reached a 10-week high, which historically is "bearish." This fact should raise some concern among investors and analysts. Excessive optimism and belief in nonstop growth usually precede a correction or, worse, a deeper drop. Financial history is full of examples where euphoria turned into disappointment. Growing greed, amplified by…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of 146.88 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming it as the correct entry point for selling the dollar, and this resulted in a drop of over 40 pips in the pair. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more dovish approach have been the main factor pressuring the dollar and supporting the Japanese yen. Most likely, in the first half of today, the dollar will continue to struggle to gain ground. This situation is due to several factors. First, US economic data lately has been clearly negative, offering a sobering picture of the US economy. Second, even …
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe first test of the 1.3646 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move up from the zero mark, confirming this as the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose, stopping just short of the 1.3671 target. UK labor market data kept demand for the pound healthy in the first half of the day, after which dollar weakness returned. Despite the lack of strong positives in the published data, the mere resilience of the UK labor market—contrary to some analysts' expectations—supported the national currency. Investors who feared a sharp deterioration got a signal that the UK economy is…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1821 price occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for buying the euro in line with the trend. As a result, the pair reached the target level of 1.1848. The euro's confident climb was driven by encouraging data from Germany's ZEW institute, reflecting positive shifts in economic sentiment across the eurozone. The main driving force on the currency market then became expectations for continued dovish policy from the US Federal Reserve. Initial expectations pointed to a cautious Fed approach to rate cuts, but now many traders expect at leas…
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The US dollar continued to lose ground actively—a development that's easy to explain. There is growing talk in the market that the Fed will be forced to act more dovish, especially after the latest fundamental data from the US, which hardly gives dollar bulls any confidence. Yesterday, strong data from Germany's ZEW institute, which indicated improving economic sentiment in the eurozone, led to a stronger euro. Investors saw this as a signal of potential regional economic stabilization, increasing interest in the European currency. However, the key factor influencing the FX market in the second half of the day was a shift in expectations around future Federal Reserve poli…
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A month ago, on August 19, we expected a US stock market reversal based on the completion of five DeMark sequences. However, that reversal didn't materialize—there was only a five-day correction. Now, however, we've encountered six sequences, marked by the number "9" on the daily chart. Given today's complex monetary policy decision, the Fed faces, the chances of a significant S&P 500 decline are even higher. Visually, the market could fall into the 5916–5973 range, a zone it traded in from mid-May to mid-June before resuming its uptrend. Another reference point is the simple moving average (SMA) with a period of 233, which currently lies just above that zone. The M…
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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the Bitcoin price trend remains constructive as long as the asset trades above the short-term holder cost basis. Bitcoin Is Still Maintaining Above Short-Term Holder Realized Price In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about the Realized Price of the Bitcoin short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. When the value of the metric is greater than BTC’s spot price, it means the investors as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the asset’s value implies t…
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Yesterday, the euro made an impressive jump upward by 105 pips, reaching the upper boundary of the price channel precisely at 1.1879. Economic data out of Europe and the US were solid: in Europe, the key figures were the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, while in the US, industrial production, retail sales, and Q3 GDP forecast (3.4% vs. 3.1% previous estimate). If it weren't for market nervousness about the expectation of three Fed rate cuts, the dollar would have definitely strengthened. This time, however, even a slight increase in European data (sentiment for September 26.1 vs. 25.1 in August; July industrial production +0.3% vs. -0.6% in June) was met with extra enthusi…
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The British pound gained 47 pips yesterday, closing above the target level of 1.3631. The range between 1.3631 and 1.3700 looks too fragile amid the upcoming Fed decision on monetary policy. The 1.3525–1.3631 range appears slightly stronger, but the truly solid and strategically important range is 1.3364–1.3525, which the pound left behind after short futures contracts were closed ahead of today's Fed meeting. The Fibonacci time grid points to the completion of the growth cycle since August 1 (8 periods)—a collapse may follow today. A move below 1.3525 (coinciding with the MACD line) will open the way to 1.3364 (the lows of July 16 and June 23), then to 1.3253. On the …
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Solana started a fresh increase above the $240 zone. SOL price is now consolidating gains below $240 and might aim for another increase if it stays above $230. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $240 and $242 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $240 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $238 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $230 zone. Solana Price Consolidates Gains Solana price started a decent increase after it settled above the $220 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed ab…
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Circle Internet Financial (CRCL), the firm behind the USDC stablecoin, has announced a significant investment in Hyperliquid (HYPE), a layer-1 blockchain that has experienced high demand this year. Circle’s Strategic Move Into Hyperliquid As part of this initiative, Circle has launched Native USDC and Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP V2) on HyperEVM, an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) integrated into Hyperliquid’s layer-1 blockchain. This move is expected to streamline the adoption of USDC and enhance its utility. Plans also include enabling direct deposits and ensuring CCTP interoperability for Hyperliquid USDC on HyperCore, a platform that specializes in on-chain f…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but it's worth reminding novice traders that yesterday's calendar was also full of data—yet none of it had any impact on the dollar, euro, or pound. So a similar situation might occur today. For instance, what should we expect from the second estimate of eurozone inflation, when this reading already has almost no impact on the ECB? US construction and real estate data are unlikely to be more important than industrial production and retail sales, which the market ignored yesterday. Thus, the only data of real interest is the UK inflation report. Fundamental Events Analys…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher, but in a much calmer and more familiar fashion. The trendline remains relevant, so only further growth of the British pound should be expected, both in the short and long term. Yesterday's UK reports were bland and were clearly not the reason for the pound's rise. US figures beat forecasts, but the market simply ignored them. Today, an important UK inflation report is scheduled for release in about an hour and a half. The Fed meeting is later in the evening, and the Bank of England meets tomorrow. Therefore, volatility over the next 24 hours could be elevated, and we might see a lot of sharp…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement. The hourly timeframe clearly shows the formation of a new bullish trend, and on the daily timeframe, the trend of 2025 is officially back in force. There's no point even searching for new reasons behind the dollar's latest fall. None of the four somewhat important reports yesterday had anything to do with the euro's growth. US retail sales and industrial production both exceeded forecasts, which should have caused the pair to fall. However, the global fundamental backdrop continues to exert powerful pressure on the US dollar. From time to time, the dollar does correct,…
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XRP price started a downside correction below the $3.050 resistance. The price is now recovering losses and faces hurdles near the $3.080 zone. XRP price is consolidating losses after declining below the $3.120 resistance. The price is now trading below $3.080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if the price clears the $3.080 zone. XRP Price Attempts Recovery XRP price started a fresh decline below the $3.120 level, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price dipped below the $3.020 level to enter …
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Although Ethereum (ETH) is still up approximately 80% over the past three months, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap appears to have lost its momentum lately, down 0.6% over the past month. Binance Ethereum Trading In Neutral Zone According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Ethereum trading on Binance during September 2025 is witnessing a period of relative calm compared to other months. Notably, there has been a decline in the imbalance between ETH spot and perpetual volumes. Commenting on ETH’s recent price surge, which saw it jump from $2,127 on June 15 to around $4,500 at the time of writing, Arab Chain noted that this rally …
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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $4,620. ETH is now trading below $4,620 and might extend losses if it stays below $4,585. Ethereum is now correcting gains below the $4,620 zone. The price is trading below $4,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,580 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,580 and $4,620. Ethereum Price Faces Hurdles Ethereum price started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above the $4,650 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price corrected gains and dipped below the $4,600 support. There was a move belo…
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CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has jumped from 20 to 50 in just four days, suggesting a swift shift out of bearish territory for the asset. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Back In Neutral Region In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about the latest trend in the analytics firm’s Bull Score Index. This indicator basically tells us about which phase of the market Bitcoin is in right now. The index combines the data of several key on-chain metrics to determine its value. Some of these indicators include the Market Value to Realized Cap (MVRV) Ratio, keeping track of average investor profitability on the network, and the Stablecoin Liq…
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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. In the morning, the UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but these only allowed traders to draw conclusions that had no impact on their trading decisions. For instance, the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%—what are we to conclude from that? Or the pace of wage growth slowed slightly (but stayed within forecasts)—what does that mean? Will the Bank of England take these figures and their results seriously? In our view, the UK data package was utterly pointless. On Monday, there were no significant releases or events in either the US or the UK, yet the pound kept rising at the same rate al…
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The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday clearly showed what traders expect in the near future. Despite a very weak macroeconomic backdrop, the euro rose all day and broke above the July 1 high, which was also the highest value in the last three years. For us, there's really nothing surprising here, as we've said many times: the dollar has no chance to grow, except for technical corrections. Over the last five weeks, upward movement has been quite weak, but the euro keeps climbing, not the dollar. The dollar more or less corrected for about a month, and now the decline has resumed. Granted, this is no longer a collapse like in the first half of 2025—but it's still a decline. …
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also continued to move north, though not as strongly as EUR/USD. The uptrend on the hourly timeframe remains, as evidenced by the trendline, while UK statistics released yesterday morning had no real effect on the pound's growth. All three UK reports published were dull and neutral, almost exactly matching economist forecasts. They simply couldn't provoke a rally throughout the day. The same applies to US data (industrial production, retail sales), which also beat forecasts and should have supported the dollar, not the pound. However, the US currency still has plenty of fundamental reasons for decline, an…
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, but this time the rally was much stronger. None of Tuesday's published reports played any significant role for traders. European data allowed room for the euro to rise, but, for example, industrial production came in weaker than forecast. US reports didn't interest the market at all: retail sales and industrial production came in above expectations, yet the dollar still fell all day. As we've said many times, the dollar has plenty of global fundamental reasons to fall, even in the absence of local macroeconomic catalysts. We've repeatedly noted that even technical analysis on…
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Bitcoin price is moving higher above $116,200. BTC is now consolidating and might gain bullish momentum if it clears the $116,850 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $116,000 zone. The price is trading below $116,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $115,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $116,850 zone. Bitcoin Price Hits Resistance Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $114,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $115,000 and $115,500 resistance levels. The bulls were…
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With the Federal Reserve set to announce policy on Wednesday, September 17, a closely followed trader has laid out a precise, level-by-level playbook for navigating Bitcoin’s next move. In his weekly “Market Outlook #51,” published on September 15, Nik Patel (@cointradernik) for Ostium Research maps out both long and short triggers around a tight cluster of resistance at $117.5k–$120k and a “line in the sand” support at $112k—frameworks he argues should contain BTC’s path through the FOMC and into quarter-end. How To Trade Bitcoin Into September FOMC Nik’s higher-timeframe read starts with a strong weekly close that reclaimed the August open near $115.3k and, crucially, …
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