Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Review of Macroeconomic Reports: There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Essentially, the only noteworthy report is the business climate index in Germany, which is an absolutely secondary indicator. Thus, we can expect sluggish movements and a "boring Monday" with a high degree of probability. Technical analysis will take precedence in importance. Recall that the key point in the analysis right now is the flat trend of the euro on the daily timeframe. Review of Fundamental Events: There are also a few fundamental events scheduled for Monday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and several of her colleagues will deliver spe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded in a new sideways channel on Friday. Recall that the price spent two weeks in the 1.3107-1.3203 channel and then settled below it, only to immediately become stuck in the next channel at 1.3043-1.3107. At the same time, a new downward trend has formed, as indicated by the trend line. As we can see, market movements remain far from the most attractive, but profit can still be made in a flat market. The illustration above shows that over two trading days, the price bounced off the boundaries of the new flat four times. Each of these opportunities allowed traders to open rebound trades. Regardin…
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Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on the last trading day of the past week. Were there reasons for this? A fair number of macroeconomic reports were published on Friday, but virtually all of them contradicted each other. In the Eurozone, two business activity indices showed opposite dynamics, while in the U.S., the business activity indices also displayed contradictory results. The U.S. consumer sentiment index was weaker than expected (which did not support dollar growth), and both business activity indices in Germany fell sharply. These factors likely contributed to the decline of the European currency…
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Solana started a recovery wave above the $125 zone. SOL price is now consolidating and faces hurdles near the $135 zone. SOL price started a decent recovery wave above $125 and $128 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $130 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $130 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could continue to move up if it clears $135 and $140. Solana Price Aims Recovery Solana price remained stable and started a decent recovery wave above $125, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL was able to climb above the $130 level. There was a move toward the 5…
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XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.00. The price is now recovering from $1.820 and might face hurdles near the $2.150 pivot level. XRP price started a recovery wave from the $1.820 zone. The price is now trading above $2.00 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.150. XRP Price Eyes Recovery XRP price extended losses below the $2.00 support, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price even spiked below $1.90 before the bulls appeared. A low was formed at $1.8177, and the…
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Ethereum price failed to stay above $2,800 and tested $2,620. ETH is now attempting to recover but faces resistance near $2,890. Ethereum started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above $2,800. The price is trading near $2,840 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,960 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $2,720 zone. Ethereum Price Attempts Recovery Ethereum price failed to continue higher above $3,000 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below $2,880 and entered a bearish zone. The decline gath…
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Bitcoin price started another decline below $88,000. BTC is now attempting to recover and might face hurdles near the $89,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below $90,000 and $88,000. The price is trading below $89,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $89,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $85,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Attempts Recovery Bitcoin price failed to stay in a positive zone above the $90,000 level. BTC bears remained active below $88,000 and pushed the price lower. The bears gained strength and …
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The GBP/USD currency pair traded predominantly sideways on Friday, despite a barrage of macroeconomic data. We will discuss these reports in more detail, but overall, the technical and fundamental picture for the pound aligns 80-90% with that of the euro. The difference lies in the fact that the British currency has seen slightly more justification for its decline in recent months than the euro. Recall that the euro had almost no grounds for a decline. In the UK, a significant portion of important statistics has faltered, and the Bank of England may lower its key interest rate at its last meeting of the year, unlike the European Central Bank, which has already completed i…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday. On the last trading day of last week, a significant amount of diverse statistics was published, but in this article, we will not focus on a specific day but instead on the entire past week. So, the dollar had been rising for almost the whole previous week. Were there any grounds for this? On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, there were no significant macroeconomic reports. On Thursday, positive Non-Farm Payrolls were released, which were immediately "overwhelmed" by a disappointing unemployment rate and downward revisions of the previous two months. On Friday, contradictory reports on business activity were released. S…
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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair fluctuated in various directions on Friday, though "fluctuated" is a bit of an exaggeration. Despite the abundance of macroeconomic information, volatility was not particularly high again. Most of the published reports were contradictory. For instance, the index of business activity in the UK services sector decreased, while it increased in the manufacturing sector. In the United States, the manufacturing sector index decreased, but the services sector index increased. However, two reports determined the pound's movement direction in the morning and after lunch. Retail sales in the UK fell by 1.1% in October, prompting …
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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday, despite the absence of any objective (even local) reasons for the decline. Indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors were published for November in the Eurozone, Germany, and the U.S., and these reports were expected to assist traders on Friday. However, in reality, they, like the reports on the U.S. labor market and unemployment from the previous day, only added to the confusion. In Germany, the business activity index in the services and manufacturing sectors fell, contrary to expectations, while in the Eurozone, one index showed positive dynamics, while anot…
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The upcoming trading week promises to be volatile across all dollar pairs, and the EUR/USD pair will be no exception. The tone of trading will be set by the United States, where key macroeconomic reports on GDP growth, inflation, and retail sales will be published. By the end of the week, "dovish" expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions will either be strengthened or weakened. The American currency will respond accordingly, determining the configuration of major currency pairs. MondayThe economic calendar on Monday is practically empty. The only point of interest might be the German IFO indices. Specifically, the business climate indicator for German…
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Relatively important data may play a role. This is how the dollar's prospects look for next week. There will be a few U.S. reports, but there are still no alternatives. In America, I can highlight the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and durable goods orders as interesting reports. There is also a whole list of reports that were supposed to be released, but it seems the Bureau of Statistics will not provide them. I remind you that the U.S. Bureau of Statistics only resumed its work last week and is currently busy filling in the gaps for October and November. To be more precise, it hasn't even reached November yet, and the October reports for September are already of li…
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There will be no significant events taking place in the United Kingdom. This should be the starting point of the review so that my readers immediately understand that support for the pound will have to come only from America. However, British data in the last two weeks have been the reason for the absence of strengthening in the British currency. I remind you that first, unemployment and industrial production fell, and then inflation decreased, raising the probability of a "dovish" decision by the Bank of England in December. I also remind you that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, speaks approximately every week, and the question of the budget for the next …
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Another week of attempts and struggles. This is how the upcoming week for the European currency can be characterized. I remind you that in the short term, the EUR/USD instrument built a five-wave corrective structure and could have started forming an upward wave set a week ago. However, instead of the quite logical and expected growth, we again saw a decline. As a result, the anticipated wave 2 of the new trend section takes on a highly elongated appearance (although it does not conflict with the current labeling), and the entire labeling may be complicated once more. In the long term, the anticipated wave 4 could have completed back in August, as it already took on a thr…
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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline as the dollar strengthened following mixed economic data and ambiguous comments from Federal Reserve officials. It is noteworthy that American economic indicators were mixed; while the economy shows signs of stability, business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors (PMI) published by S&P for November were mixed, though they indicate growth. Additional data showed that American homeowners have become more pessimistic about the economic future, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index (UoM) for November. This indicator reached its lowest level since 2009, reflecting consume…
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On the last day of the week, Friday, the AUD/JPY cross rate declined for the second consecutive day, moving away from the annual high reached the day before. Currently, spot prices remain slightly below the round 101.00 level. However, the potential for further decline is limited. News published on Friday confirmed that inflation in Japan remains stable and well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. This backdrop keeps expectations of an imminent interest rate hike alive, providing a slight respite for proponents of a stronger Japanese yen. Additionally, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's statement sparked speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene to prevent f…
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The price of gold closed the week within the same range, as Federal Reserve officials opened the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting. In the last three days before the weekend, the price of precious metals fluctuated as traders remained uncertain about future market moves. Statements from Fed officials and the release of new economic data indicate economic stability, a resilient labor market, but high prices. Comments from John Williams and New York Fed President Stephen Miran were "dovish," increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. In contrast, Lorie Logan from the Dallas Fed and Susan Collins from the Boston Fed indicated the need…
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The prospect of a new round of monetary policy easing is supported not only by the FedWatch tool, economic data, and global events but also by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members themselves. It is no secret that at least three members of the FOMC are ready to support a rate cut at every meeting. These three are Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Stephen Miran. Each of them, to some extent, is a "protege" of Trump. However, at least one more member has joined them, who believes that the rate should be lowered. This is John Williams, the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. He stated that he was not impressed by the September payroll data and t…
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However, the US dollar is also rising, judging by market movements over the last month and a half. A paradox? No. It's the objective reality at this time. Demand for the currency has been steadily increasing for almost two months. Let me remind you that one and a half months of this period coincided with the "shutdown" in America, which cannot be considered a positive for the American economy. In early October, Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on imports of trucks, pharmaceuticals, and certain types of furniture. As a result, a "shutdown" was added to the trade war, which had already put significant pressure on the US currency in the first half of the year. Additionally, …
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Bitcoin has tumbled more than 30% from its all-time high of $126k and is trading around $85,500 after briefly falling to $82K, according to market reports. Traders warn that recent moves by long-term holders are changing how the market reacts to stress. Liquidity has thinned, and that makes price swings larger than usual. Schiff Issues A Stark Warning According to gold investor Peter Schiff, Bitcoin is “finally having its IPO moment.” He said that when veteran holders turn into sellers, supply at the top of the market rises and future selloffs can become deeper. “This much Bitcoin moving from strong to weak hands not only increases the float, but also means future sell…
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After days of intense bearish action, the price of Bitcoin appears to be entering a calmer state, as it recovers above the $86,000 level. The latest on-chain data shows that several investors tried to take some profit in the past week, providing a basis for the premier cryptocurrency registering a double-digit loss. Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Spikes As Price Faces Downward Pressure In a recent post on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that significant Bitcoin amounts were sent to centralized exchanges in the past week. Data from Santiment shows that about $20,000 BTC (worth nearly $2 billion) has been moved to these exchanges in the past se…
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The Bitcoin market remains in a prolonged correction phase, registering a 10.4% price drop in the last seven days. As multiple analysts attempt to chart the asset’s price trajectory amid this volatile period, recent on-chain data have revealed potential local bottom targets. $55,900 Or $44,700 – How Low Can Bitcoin Go? In an X post on November 23, prominent market analyst Ali Martinez shares some insight on Bitcoin’s potential downside targets, amid the heavy price correction seen in recent weeks. Since hitting a new all-time high of $126,198.07 in early October, the leading cryptocurrency has recorded multiple heavy price drops, trading as low as $81,000. Despite gr…
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Why Americans Are Asking About Gold Ownership Limits More Americans are turning to physical gold as concerns about inflation, banking instability, rising government debt, and long term retirement security continue to grow. As traditional paper assets experience volatility, many pre retirees and retirees are looking for dependable ways to safeguard their life savings. This growing interest has also led to a common misconception that the government restricts how much physical gold a person can legally own. The truth is that gold ownership in the United States is fully legal, unrestricted, and increasingly viewed as a reliable way to add stability to retirement portfolios t…
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BHP Group (ASX: BHP) has made another approach to buy Anglo American (LON: AAL) despite the London-listed miner’s proposed merger with Canada’s Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A/TECK.B), according to reports. On Sunday, Bloomberg News reported that BHP, the world’s largest mining company, has reignited its interest in buying Anglo despite walking away from a potential deal last year and stating many times that it would not re-enter the frame again. That report was later followed up by Reuters. BHP’s approach comes just less than three weeks before shareholders of Anglo and Teck are scheduled to vote on the $53 billion merger announced in September. Should it go through,…
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