Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11713 tópicos neste fórum
-
Bitcoin failed to hold above $94,000 yesterday, while Ethereum is once again headed towards $3,000. This is mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's mixed stance. Recall that yesterday the interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, which positively affected the cryptocurrency market. The Fed also announced a bond-buying program, which ostensibly weakens the dollar and should help the cryptocurrency market. However, the central bank published a forecast expecting only one rate cut next year and one in 2027. This is problematic for risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. This ambiguity in forecasts prompts investors to exercise caution. On one hand, lower rate…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3316 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The breakout and subsequent retest of 1.3316 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, but the pair did not reach significant growth. In the second half of the day, another false breakout at 1.3320 again allowed entry into the market, driving the pair up by more than 30 pips. Active selling from 1.3352 led to a rapid decline of more than 20 pips in the pound, but then the bulls took over. To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:Th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1649 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1649 provided a sell entry for the euro, resulting in a slight 20-pip decline in the pair. In the second half of the day, another false breakout around 1.1649 allowed buying the euro, which led the pair to rise towards the target level of 1.1703. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar is facing challenges. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, leading to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of several risk assets, including the Japanese yen. The Federal Reserve's decision was the result of prolonged debates about the state of the US economy. Proponents of the rate cut argued that the slowdown in labor market growth and global uncertainty necessitated the easing of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Conversely, opponents were concerned that a rate cut could lead to rising inflation and financial instability. However, it should be noted that there …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum. Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the numbe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro experienced a strong upward movement following consolidation within the secondary downtrend channel formed since early December, which led EUR/USD to reach a high of 1.1707. We are now seeing a technical correction in the euro, but this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions if the price reaches the 3/8 Murray support around 1.1658. Above this zone, it could be seen as an opportunity to buy in the coming days. On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro left a gap on September 25 around 1.1740. We believe that the euro could continue its rise in the coming days and cover this gap, so any pullback will be seen as a signal to buy. The Eagle indicator …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Gold is trading around $4,214 within the downtrend channel formed since November 27 and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours as it encountered strong resistance around $4,248. If gold attempts to break through the top of the downtrend channel around $4,250, it will be seen as a signal to open short positions with short-term targets around $4,160. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we will look for opportunities to sell gold in the coming hours below the 7/8 Murray located at $4,218 or even if the price falls below the 21 SMA with a target at $4,170. If the price rebounds and attempts to reach resistance levels around $4,230 - $4,245, this zo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin is trading around $90,000 after a sharp technical correction that occurred after attempting to break above the 200 EMA and, in turn, after testing the top of the uptrend channel around $94,600. According to the H4 chart, Bitcoin appears to be overbought. So, if a technical rebound occurs in the coming hours and the price consolidates below 3/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA, it will be seen as an opportunity to take short positions with a short-term target around $85,000. Bitcoin is trading below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, which means that the leading cryptocurrency could remain under bearish pressure in the coming days. A reasonable strategy could be to wait…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
ETH/USD (Ethereum) is trading around $3,194 below the 21 SMA and around the 200 EMA, showing overbought levels and undergoing a strong technical correction after reaching the 3/8 Murray. After reaching the top of the uptrend channel and the 3/8 Murray zone, both levels acted as strong resistance. Unable to find more demand above $3,437, Ether made a sharp technical correction and is now likely to continue falling in the coming days until it reaches the psychological level of $3,000. If ETH/USD consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA in the coming hours, we can expect a recovery, and it could return to the 3/8 Murray resistance zone and even reach its weekly hi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Dogecoin started a fresh decline below the $0.1450 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating losses and might face hurdles near $0.1420. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.1450 level. The price is trading below the $0.140 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $0.1450 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could extend losses if it stays below $0.1420 and $0.1450. Dogecoin Price Dips Further Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it closed below $0.150, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.1450 and $0.1420 supp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has expressed strong opposition to a proposal by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to exclude digital asset treasury companies (DATs) from its indexes. Calls For Fair Treatment Of Digital Asset Companies In a recent letter signed by Michael Saylor and the firm’s CEO Phong Le, Strategy highlighted its support for MSCI’s efforts to establish consistent eligibility criteria across its indices. However, the company criticized the proposed threshold for excluding firms with more than 50% digital assets on their balance sheets, calling it “misguided.” The company argued that this measure could have negative implicatio…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only report to note is the weekly jobless claims in the US, which is straightforwardly a secondary report. Recall that this week saw the release of the ADP employment report and the JOLTS open vacancies report. These are much more significant reports, but the market reacted weakly to them, as it continues to await important reports such as Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rates, and consumer price indexes, which will be published next week. Analysis of Fundamental Events: No fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday. However, traders will not la…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades on Wednesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Wednesday, with a similar fundamental backdrop. However, it should be noted that the British currency began to rise well before the publication of the Federal Reserve's decision on rates and Jerome Powell's speech. Thus, as we anticipated, the upward trend for the British pound is maintained and gaining momentum. The market finally responded to the Fed's monetary easing as expected—by selling the dollar. Even the announcement of a pause in rate cuts at the beginning of 2026 did not deter traders from disposing of US currency. We have long anticipated a resumption of t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades on Wednesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair moved exactly as most traders expected on Wednesday. It is worth noting that the market does not always react clearly or logically to the FOMC meeting results. Yesterday indeed could have been such a case, as in recent months the dollar has responded to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing with growth. However, this time the dollar fell despite the Fed's promise to pause rate cuts in 2026. Overall, as most experts had anticipated, the key rate was lowered for the third consecutive time, but it was done in advance. There is still no macroeconomic data on the labor market, unemplo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.10. The price is now struggling and faces resistance near the $2.050 pivot level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.040 zone. The price is now trading below $2.020 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.050 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $2.00. XRP Price Dips Again XRP price attempted a recovery wave above $2.120 but failed to continue higher, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price started a fresh decline below $2.10 and $2.050. There was a move below the $2.00 …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin and Ethereum are moving in a tight market today, with traders adding more leverage even as prices sit near recent highs. As of December 11, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $92,585. The price is flat over the past 24 hours, and its weekly performance shows a slight decline, based on CoinGecko data. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Ethereum (ETH) sits near $3,354. It is up about 0.8% on the day and nearly 6.9% over the week, giving it stronger short-term momentum compared to Bitcoin. Market Cap…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP whales have offloaded a large amount of tokens ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, a move that may have slowed the token’s recovery. But long-term holders are still staying put, and their steady behavior continues to support a bullish outlook for XRP. Why Have XRP Whales Sold Over $700M Since December 5? Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 100M and 1Bn XRP have sold close to $600M worth of tokens since December 5. (Source: Santiment) And the selling has not stopped. Since December 7, whales have offloaded another $100M, suggesting that major holders are still taking profits even as the market tries to stabilize. This pressure helps explain why XRP has st…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Solana (SOL) is still stuck in a tight range, moving between $124 and $145 with no strong push in either direction. On-chain analyst Ali said the token has held this sideways pattern for several days, bouncing between the same levels without showing real strength. This creates a tight structure that often appears before a breakout. A close above $145 would be the first strong move beyond the trendline and could open the way toward the next supply zone between $175 and $190. The analyst said volatility will likely rise if buyers reclaim this level. A clean breakout above $145 could pull momentum toward $180 as the broader downtrend begins to lose strength. The cha…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A noted Bitcoin adviser has warned that Shiba Inu faces an uphill climb unless it retakes a prior support band, a call that has stirred debate across crypto social channels. According to posts by BingX Bitcoin adviser Nebraskan Gooner, the token must return above a horizontal region he marked between $0.000014 and $0.00001 to avoid a “dead” outlook. Key Support Level Under Scrutiny Gooner’s chart points to a multi-year zone that once acted as firm support. Reports show SHIB touched that band and later surged to about $0.000045 in early March 2024. The importance of the area is highlighted by the token’s price action: it has spent much of Q4 2025 below that range, and …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum price started a fresh increase above $3,350. ETH is now correcting gains from $3,450 and might decline further below $3,200. Ethereum started a downside correction from the $3,450 zone. The price is trading near $3,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $3,240 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $3,200 zone. Ethereum Price Declines Heavily Ethereum price managed to stay above $3,200 and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin. ETH price gained strength for a move above the $3,320 and $3,350 resistance levels. Th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On-chain data shows the Solana Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dipped into the loss-taking zone recently, a sign that SOL liquidity has thinned. Solana Liquidity Back At Levels Associated With Bear Markets According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Solana liquidity has recently contracted to levels that are typically witnessed in a bear market. There are many ways “liquidity” of a cryptocurrency can be assessed, but here, Glassnode has used the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. This indicator measures, as its name already implies, the ratio between the amount of profit and loss that the SOL investors as a whole are realizing through their transactions. The met…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin price failed to continue higher above $94,000. BTC is now gaining bearish pace and might decline further below $89,500. Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $94,500 zone. The price is trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $91,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $89,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to gain strength for a move above the $94,000 and $94,500 levels. BTC started a downside correction and traded below the $92,000 support. There was a clear…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively weakly on Wednesday, at least until the FOMC meeting, the results of which and the market reaction will not be discussed in this article. The outcomes will be summarized tomorrow, once the market's passions have settled. For this week, only one significant event can be highlighted. On Tuesday, the JOLTs report on job openings was released, prompting the first more noticeable movement. The US dollar strengthened slightly as the number of job openings exceeded forecasts. However, it's worth recalling that the JOLTs report has never been a key indicator for the US labor market. Key reports will be published next week, and these cou…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in a "zig-zag" and "fence" pattern on Wednesday. As a reminder, we will not discuss the outcomes of the FOMC meeting or any subsequent movements in this article. The reason is straightforward: we believe that right after the results are announced, the market trades on emotion. It often happens that the price initially moves in one direction, only to return to its starting position by morning. We even consider that all movements following the FOMC meeting should not be factored into technical analysis. Thus, it's better to wait for the market's passions to calm before drawing conclusions about the decisions made and how the mark…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi has sharpened his defense of Ethereum’s valuation, arguing that critics are using the wrong financial framework and that ETH should be analyzed more like an early-stage Amazon than a mature “value” stock. Speaking on the Milk Road Show on 9 December 2025, Qureshi revisited his now-viral valuation clash with investor Santiago “Santi” Santos, hosted by ThreadGuy, which reignited the debate over how to price layer 1 blockchains. At the core of Qureshi’s thesis is a simple but controversial claim: fee revenue on Ethereum is effectively pure margin and should be treated as profit, not as “revenue” in the traditional corporate sense. …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
