Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
6975 tópicos neste fórum
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Overview: The US dollar is mostly consolidating today in quiet turnover. Among the G10 currencies, the dollar-bloc, which underperformed before the weekend, are firmer today, while the other G10 currencies are softer. The focus is not so much on data today but on the meeting in the White House with Ukraine's Zelensky and the European leaders to discuss the outcome of the President Trump's talk before the weekend with Putin. Apparently, Putin wants all of the Donbass territory, even the part he has not taken. Trump had threatened tough sanctions if a ceasefire was not agreed. There is no ceasefire and there have been no new sanctions announced. While Europe continues natur…
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Overview: There are two main drivers today. The outcome of Japan's LDP leadership contest means Japan will have its first woman prime minister, She espouses the traditional LDP policy mix of expansionary fiscal policy and advocates easy monetary policy. The yen was sent reeling as were Japanese bonds, where the 40-year yield surged 15 bp to around 3.55%. Japanese stocks jumped 3%-4%. The second development was the unexpected resignation of the French prime minister who was in office less than a month. French bonds and stocks have been sold, and the euro has been dragged lower. Despite the continued shutdown of the US federal government and no sign of an off-ramp, the gree…
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Overview: An accelerated run on the US dollar continues. The euro, sterling, Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen to new highs. The greenback has dropped to new lows since 2015 against the Swiss franc. Japan's efforts to protect its rice farmers triggered the ire of President Trump. The "reciprocal tariffs," which could come back to the fore in a week, would be around 24% on Japan if no agreement is struck. While all the G10 currencies are firmer today, the yen leads with around a 0.75% gain. In addition to the trade disruption, a drag is coming from the decline in US rates. The 2- and 10-year yields are at new two-month lows. All but a few emerging market curren…
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Overview: After rallying in the second half of last week, the dollar spent the last two sessions consolidating at lower levels. It has come back bid today amid light news. The greenback is 0.25%-0.50% firmer against the G10 currencies. The exception is the Australian dollar, which is holding on to small gains, inspired by the firmer CPI reading and a downgrading of the chances of a cut by the central bank not only next week but the following meeting in November, as well. The US dollar also enjoys a firmer bias against emerging market currencies. Japan returned from yesterday's holiday, and despite last week's announcement that the BOJ will begin selling its equity ETF ho…
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Some contradicting headlines are influencing the US Dollar in a battle of wits right ahead of quintessential inflation data. Markets have been unable to provide a clear answer on how the upcoming FOMC (September 17th) and its rate cut expectations will affect the future outlook for the Dollar. The thesis had been that despite negative news (Jerome Powell's change in tone at Jackson Hole or the recent Non-Farm Payrolls), traders have failed to sell the US Dollar convincingly, with the DXY doomed in sideways action. The freshly released downward revisioned BLS report (bearish for the USD) and the rising tensions in the Middle East with Israel-Hamas war taking another tur…
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- 14 👀 Traders
Overview: The US dollar's recovery accelerated today, and it has not deterred gold from surging through the $4000-mark in the spot market. With the US government still shut and no apparent negotiations to end it, greenback's gains seem to be a reflection of poor developments elsewhere. Following the LDP's leadership election over the past weekend, the yen has plunged more than 3.5% this week and the sell-off does not appear complete. Unexpectedly poor German data and the French political morass has sent the euro lower for the third consecutive session. It approached last month's low near $1.16. It reached a multi-year high on September 17, near $1.1920. There is some opti…
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Overview: The US dollar was weak yesterday, but it has been pummeled today. It is down against the G10 currencies and all but the Russian ruble and Turkish lira among emerging market currencies. The proximate trigger of today's sell-off were news reports that a successor to Fed Chair Powell could be announced in a few months. The attempt to influence the Fed so directly does not set well with investors. In the Fed funds futures market, the odds of a July cut have crept up, but are around a 1-in-4 chance. However, there are now almost 63 bp of easing discounted before the end of the year. That is the most since early May. This, combined with the month/quarter end flows an…
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After failing to trade above the 99.00 psychological handle last Thursday, the Dollar Index had retracted strongly in the beginning of the week – Is the ongoing retracement over? Other majors have enjoyed from the close to 2% correction in the Index, particularly USDJPY which had been struggling since the onset of July. Markets tend to move chaotically on the small picture but the bigger picture sometimes offers some great insights. The US Dollar just marked what is for now an intermediate bottom on its index and this marked the end of the weekly run in European and Asia-Pacific currencies. Let's take a look at the DXY and a few other major charts to prepare for the m…
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Overview: The short-covering recovery in the US dollar has been extended today but the momentum stalled in the European morning. The key issue is whether North American participants can extend it. We suspect that the market will turn more cautious now, ahead of tomorrow FOMC meeting outcome, where many still expect at least one dovish dissent from the likely standpat decision and the ADP private sector estimate, which unexpectedly showed a net loss of jobs in June. The greenback made a new high for the month today against the euro and sterling. Ahead of the start of the North American session, the greenback is off its earlier highs but still firmer against all the G10 cur…
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Dollar Slumps
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- 95 👀 Traders
Overview: The dollar is finishing the week heavily. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies. The only exceptions are the Turkish lira and Hong Kong dollar. For the week, among the G10 currencies, only the Australian dollar has not risen at least 1%, Helped by stronger than expected retail sales, sterling set a new three-year high (~$1.3500). Between the tariffs and the budget, the Dollar Index is set to snap a four-week upside correction, even as the market has pushed the next cut by the Federal Reserve into Q4. Asia Pacific equities mostly rallied, except for China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed on the day and week…
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Overview: The focus is on US employment today. Weak jobs growth and a tick up in the unemployment rate are expected to spur the Fed's first rate cut of the year in a couple of weeks. Position adjusting ahead of the report has weighed on the greenback broadly and overwhelmed the unexpectedly poor Germany factory orders and the data problem in UK that has exaggerated activity. Only a handful of emerging market currencies have not been lifted by the selling pressure on the greenback. These include the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee. Stocks and bonds are firm. All the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by the nearly 2.2% surge China's CSI 30…
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Overview: Today marks the 54th anniversary of the end of the Bretton Woods agreement that pegged the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar. Nixon, who was regarded as among the most conservative presidents of his generation also announced a 90-day wage and price freeze and a 10% surcharge on imports. After some fits and starts, the modern era of floating exchange rates was introduced. Europe wanted little currency movement within its growing trade bloc and after several experiments failed, it opted for a single currency in the late 1990s. The incredible asymmetry of power at the end of WWII made Bretton Woods possible in the first place. The US appears to no l…
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Overview: After yesterday's jump, the dollar is mostly consolidating at lower levels today. The Scandis and euro are leading the recovery of the G10 currencies, the New Zealand and Canadian dollars, and yen are nursing small losses. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba was not blamed for the electoral losses in a party investigation, but the LDP will vote on Monday whether to have a leadership contest this year. France will hold a confidence vote on its prime minister the same day. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer today. Japanese, Chinese, Hong Kong, and Australian equities tumbled today but other large bourses in the region rose, including Taiwan, South Korea, …
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Overview: The US dollar has steadied today after yesterday's shellacking that saw it fall to new multiyear lows against the euro and sterling and 10-year lows against the Swiss franc. The news stream is somewhat more supportive today, with trade deals said to be in the works, in addition to the confirmation/clarification of an agreement with China. The US got an exemption from the OECD's Pillar 2 corporate tax reform, and the onerous "revenge tax" of Section 899 of the budget proposal will be dropped. There is talk that the postponement of the so-called reciprocal tariff may be extended for the current deadline of July 9. While the greenback has steadied it has found litt…
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Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the G10 currencies with the disappointing UK jobs data weighing on sterling the most. It is off about 0.5% in late morning European activity. The greenback is more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Mexican peso, which reached new highs for the year yesterday is consolidating. The Brazilian real also rose to its best level of the year yesterday. The US economic calendar is light today and the focus is on tomorrow's CPI report and the ongoing US-China talks in London. The US tariffs have been the key issue, the talks in London appear to be more about export controls. There are the makings for a deal: chip…
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The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall. Despite another appearance from the Fed Chair at a Rhode Island conference on Tuesday—where his strong emphasis on employment could have been read as a dovish catalyst—markets didn’t budge. Instead, the DXY finished higher that day, signaling that markets already priced in Powell’s words and participants are now looking for something else. The decisive move came from this morning's Jobless Claims beat, combined with even higher Q2 GDP, which markets saw as another reason to extend the …
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The Dollar index is consolidating below the 100.00 level for the second consecutive week as Tuesday’s rally in the USD was not strong enough to hold. The DXY is trading at 98.80 and hasn’t crossed above 100 this week. Between renewed menaces and the actual delay in implementing tariffs, US President Trump is making sure that the ongoing trend of USD selling doesn’t stall. The announcement in the middle of last week from the US Federal Court boosted the USD initially, though the appeal of the court decision just added to more uncertainty. Overall mixed US Data hasn't helped to add demand for the Greenback. Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS beat while ADP Employment and Service…
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The US Dollar is beginning the week on a tough note as the White House appealed the Federal Court decision to block US tariffs - which has also dampened the risk-appetite on the week. All majors are higher with the Asian-Pacific currencies leading the charge - NZD and JPY are both up above 0.80% against the USD in the morning session. Gold is also much higher +2.40% on the day, with Bitcoin and Stock Indices down (though not by too much). Let's dive into a DXY Analysis starting from the Monthly timeframe. Read More: Markets Today: Sentiment Takes a Hit on Trump's Latest Tariffs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA …
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Overview: Despite the US jobs report, which was considerably better than the fears induced by the ADP estimate and the gradually rising jobless claims, and apparent resumption of China's rare earth exports to US (and European) auto makers, Asia and European participants sold into the dollar's gains they inherited. The greenback has largely unwound its pre-weekend gains. The US-China trade talks are being held in London today. China's export control of critical metals and magnets was a shot across the bow. As the US dominates chip technology, and therefore the supply chain, China demonstrated it does the same more or less in the rare earths space. Separately, China reporte…
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- 82 👀 Traders
Overview: The US dollar is extending yesterday's pullback after Monday's sharp rally. Monday's rally had met or approached several technical targets, but the momentum and news stream, including the downgrading of US recession forecasts, the pushing out of the next Fed rate cut into Q4 seemed to favor further dollar gains. Against many pairs, the greenback has given back all of Monday's gains or nearly so. The dollar is weaker against nearly all the world's currencies. The South Korean won has strengthened the most following talk that the currency was discussed in bilateral trade talks with the US. It is up nearly 1.8%, followed by the Japanese yen, which is up almost 1.2%…
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- 6 👀 Traders
With just one statement, Sebastien Lecornu saved France — and Europe! The speech by the outgoing prime minister, announcing progress in negotiations with political parties over the budget, led to a rebound in the CAC-40 index and a narrowing of the yield spread between French and German bonds. As a result, EUR/USD managed to find a footing. But how long will it last? Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds Achieving results requires efforts from both sides. Lecornu studied the demands of both the left- and right-wing parties and indicated a willingness to compromise. While he previously announced plans to set the budget deficit for next year at 4.7%, h…
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- 102 👀 Traders
Between February and the end of June 2025, the US dollar was under sustained downward pressure, reflecting market expectations of an imminent rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve. However, July brought a noticeable shift in investor sentiment towards the greenback, particularly evident in the final days of the month. The trigger for this reversal was the outcome of the July FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference, both of which dampened expectations for near-term monetary easing. Fed Pushback Lowers Rate-Cut Expectations for September Just a month ago, Fed Funds Futures were pricing in over a 90% probability of a September rate cut. Following recent comm…
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- 68 👀 Traders
Dolly Varden Silver (TSXV: DV) reported new drilling at its Kitsault Valley project in British Columbia has tightened the Wolf vein’s high-grade plunge and kept the target open to depth, sending its Toronto-listed shares higher. The latest hole, DV25-446, cut 21.7 metres grading 1,422 grams silver per tonne starting at 816.3 metres downhole, including a 1-metre hit of 10,700 grams silver, the company said Tuesday. The intercept sits about 105 metres up-dip of last season’s furthest step-out and came with increasing gold and base metals at depth. (Intervals are core length; estimated true widths are 55%–65%.) Haywood Capital Markets mining analyst Marcus Giannini s…
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The European Central Bank (ECB) officials have taken a wait-and-see approach and are eagerly anticipating the next release of their economic forecasts. It is quite possible that these new forecasts will help determine whether interest rates are sufficiently low to ensure a stable 2% inflation rate. Policymakers speaking on the sidelines of the European financial leaders' meeting in Copenhagen last week were confident that a deposit rate of 2% is currently appropriate to achieve this goal. However, opinions were divided over the severity of risks affecting the outlook for further inflation growth. President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB has achieved its goal of cu…
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A new wave of buzz has hit the XRP community after an expert shared a teasing message on Twitter. Crypto analyst Armando Pantoja, a member of the Benzinga Crypto Advisory Board, said he just got off a call with contacts in Washington, D.C. and hinted that XRP is “about to explode.” He couldn’t give details, but he left a clear sign that something big might be on the way. His words “Big Move Incoming” and the tip that holders of at least 1,000 XRP are already ahead of the curve have pushed traders to watch the token more closely. How 1,000 XRP Stands Out According to data from the XRP Rich List, there are about 6.8 million XRP wallets in existence. Close to 6 million o…
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