Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical: Poised for a potential bullish breakout as US CPI looms”, published last Thursday, 11 September 2025. The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected bullish breakout above the minor “Ascending Triangle” range resistance at 45,780 and rallied by 1.3% to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 46,140 on last Friday, 12 September 2025, during the early Asian session. Thereafter, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index’s minor/short-term bullish momentum fizzled out and staged a corrective pull-b…
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The Dow Jones (US30USD) has rallied ~0.29% higher today, having found support at the bottom of the current daily range, trading at around $44,471. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse T…
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Closing at $45,675, up +0.32%, the Dow Jones 30 has renewed recent highs in today’s session, breaking above previously held consolidation at around $45,642. Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Key takeaways from today’s session Up around 7.00% year-to-date, recent developments suggesting the Fed will cut in their upcoming decision are benefiting US equity pricingWhile interest rate cuts stand to benefit Dow Jones pricing, weak jobs data and a potential for infamous ‘stagflation’ could limit upside in the medium termDow Jones 30 (DJIA): Interest rate cut predictions boost Dow Jones pricing Although playing second fiddle to the tech-dominant Nasdaq-100 for much of 2025, the Dow Jone…
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Despite a strong open and a decent Jobless Claims release, Equity markets are rejcting their higher levels. The narrative had been confusing since last Friday's Non-Farm payrolls miss: All indices rallied above their pre-NFP levels in what seemed to be a total discounting of that new information, allowing participants to suppose that the repricing of a September cut (currently 91.5% priced in for 25 bps) would overtake the more pessimistic outlooks for Economy. Was the few days of price action a bull trap? Only the future will tell. But one sure thing, is that single days of price action are not enough to look at the global picture, a good reason to always take a step…
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U.S. data, which had surprised participants for a long while now, has finally shown some of the effects of tariff-led inflation, and they do not look good. This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) report came at 0.9% m/m for both the headline and core numbers (expected at 0.2% for both). Y/Y headline is now at 3.3% (vs 2.5% exp) and 3.7%(!!) (vs 2.9% consensus) for the core. A few FED speakers and economists have mentioned that the impact of tariffs on inflation should only provide a temporary, one-time boost to the change in inflation numbers. However, despite these claims, too-hot inflation in the present may change future inflation expectations and prompt a hawkish…
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Stock markets reopened after a prolonged holiday weekend with no major headlines disrupting the recent streak of red-hot bullish sentiment. US President Trump is expected to begin sending formal letters to international counterparts, outlining his administration’s 10% tariff plans—or potentially higher—alongside trade deals that have been in development since the early months of his mandate. Elsewhere, China has moved to restrict EU healthcare device imports, though this has done little to dent global market confidence, with most major indices trading in the green to start the week. In the FX space, volatility may pick up ahead of interest rate decisions from the Reser…
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Sentiment on the North American opening bell is decently positive but Buyers still have some work to do to undo some of the yesterday's selling – They are still starting to get some traction. There is no major US Data release in today's session, leaving normal trading flows the role to guide the price action. Watch how the weekly candle closes. The earnings season is almost done for most of the Major companies, with the only major miss released yesterday for Eli Lilly which saw its biggest daily drop of 14% since 25 years on a slow down for the company's obesity pill offer, but is still seeing some dip-buying with today's daily open. Markets are still waiting for more …
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Log in to today's North American session recap – July 23, 2025. Today’s session has been marked by some positive news all around. Between yesterday evening’s announcement of a US-Japan Trade Deal, rumours of ongoing constructive talks between the US and Europe, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, Turkey, that could bring the conflict closer to its end as we approach Trump’s ultimatum, which would see Russia’s trading capacities impaired even more. Stock markets had opened a mixed as markets prepare for the Alphabet (Google) and Tesla releases with the ongoing two sessions of profit taking in Nasdaq and rewiring of these flows towards the Dow Jones. Almost…
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This morning saw some particular reactions to the as-expected CPI report. Initial reactions were going towards most assets benefitting from rate cuts rallying, like US Equities, bonds and gold heading higher. Since, longer-term bonds are getting sold off due to the pricing of an immediate September rate cut which would put up long-term inflation expectations. 10 (4.315%) to 30 Year yields (4.90%) are at their highs of the session. Nasdaq and S&P are getting hurt from this, particularly following the Nvidia and AMD announcement to share 15% of their profits from China to the US Government. The Dow Jones on the other hand seems to like the inflation report and is se…
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US indices just concluded a decent month after a scary monthly open, with the Dow Jones up 3.44% in August. With this month commencing, participants are expecting high volatility ahead. Traders can remember how volatile the prior day to the July NFP and the actual release were – Looking at the state of current state of Markets, a calm before the storm situation is looming. Indeed, with the pricing of rate cuts still subject to change, Markets are still expecting some change in stance: there is just a bit more than 2 FED cuts priced in towards the rest of the year. (a little fundamental parenthesis before the Dow Jones charts) FED's Waller, who is one of the appointee…
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Stocks continue to hold up after last week’s dovish interpretation of Powell’s remarks, with Friday’s rally still leaving US indices near their recent highs. While the current open is slightly lower than the Friday peak, the Dow Jones is still trading above its previous all-time highs, showing a picture of relative strength as Participants await further news. The Nasdaq is attempting to re-enter its upward channel and the S&P 500 has formed a short-timeframe double top, leaving the immediate bullish hand to the Dow Jones, the oldest of all US Indices. With earnings season close to finishing (Nvidia earnings are approaching, releasing Wednesday) and macro data deli…
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The Dow Jones has escaped some bearish outlooks having found some support close to the 44,000 handle. American markets have had some rough headwinds hurting their outlooks, between some newfound geopolitical turmoil (Middle East, Russia and Ukraine), the usual tariff micmac, and even more importantly, the compromising of the Federal Reserve's independence. Progressively, Markets are seeing some signs of bearish catalysts dissipating but the sky is still grey – Deals are starting to work out (Trump mentions progress with EU Deal, still work to do with Canada) and the US President finally mentioned the importance of him not firing Jerome Powell for Market stability. The …
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Despite a harsh fall in the US Dollar, US Indices are starting the week on a rally, with a seemingly positive sentiment all around. The past week's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey had came in slightly worse than expected but showing better outlooks from firms in terms of expected impact and inflation from tariffs, coupling with a more than decent earnings season and renewed Dovish comments from Waller. The ongoing bull momentum is countering the profit-taking seen on Friday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are making all-time highs again while the Dow is still within its range, therefore let's take a look if the roof-breaking momentum in Tech can rippl…
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The Market is going wild from Powell's speech, interpreted as largely dovish! In case you missed it, you can access the text and a review of his live speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this page: Access Jerome Powell's full speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium Jerome Powell just concluded his nuch-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole economic conference and the reactions are strong. Holding a very nuanced approach, as we're used to from Powell, Markets still interpreted some of his wording as a slightly dovish opening. These lines on employment are a good example: "Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of …
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The week has been calm in terms of economic data releases and despite the ongoing Earnings season, Markets have been looking for headlines. And headlines they received! Yesterday evening saw the announcement of a much anticipated US-Japan Trade Deal that would largely diminish announced tariffs from 25% and more to an actual of 15% on Auto Imports. You can read more on the deal right here. – Except for wishy-washy trading in USDJPY, Equities have appreciated the news. The Nikkei closed the Asia session up around 4.50% and European stocks have also been lifted by the news. In the US, the Indices have opened positive but the trend that started in the beginning of the wee…
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Dow Jones recovers 400 points from daily low.Middle East tensions impacting market sentiment.Defense stocks rise, airlines stocks fall.Markets could face gaps over the weekend.Read More: Oil Surges 10%, Gold Above $3400/oz as Israel Strikes Iran The Dow Jones Index has recovered around 400 points from its daily low as markets shrug of initial fears of a wider Middle East conflict. There are a lot of conflicting reports circulating online about the attack on Iran overnight as Israel appears to have easy access to Iranian airspace. These developments as well as bullish comments from US President Trump about Israels rights to defend itself and that the US would provide aid i…
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Today's session is seeing some recovery flows form the catastrophic Equity performance after Friday's NFP miss. The session is empty of any major economic release and for now, the lack of geopolitical influences and continuation from Friday's risk-off moves has helped mean-reverters to bring some buying in Equities. Our analysis from Friday pointed towards prices touching the lower bound of the upward channel in Nasdaq for example and the index is actually leading its US peers (currently up +1.40%) as tech shines again in today's session, led by Microsoft and Nvidia. The Dow Jones is also up above 1% as we speak but testing some key levels. Let's take a look at these …
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After three sessions of correction in US equities, the Dow Jones is attempting a comeback. The move comes in the shadow of what had been a heavily risk-on pre-FOMC environment, where expectations for rate cuts kept fueling a wave of optimism across markets. The Nasdaq even strung together 12 consecutive sessions higher, while the Dow itself had been pressing toward new all-time highs. Still, the mood has shifted: Equity Markets could be getting less optimistic regarding FOMC policy. Even positive GDP data has been largely disregarded, with investors instead focusing on the decreased pricing of cuts further out into 2026 and a labor market that—judging by yesterday’s Jo…
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The Dow Jones Index is on the back foot today continuing its bearish trend this week which started with Monday's retreat from the recent highs. The lack of US data due to the US government shutdown has left markets with few catalysts to look forward to. A host of Federal Reserve policymakers including Fed Chair Powell have also done little to inspire any volatility this week. Looking at the current Fear and Greed index, and it is hovering in neutral territory as well. …
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Since the medium-term swing low on 7 April 2025, triggered by the US Liberation Day tariff announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. So far, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has not yet broken above its current all-time high of 45,100 printed in December 2024 after a retest of it last Monday, 28 July, versus fresh all-time highs seen on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Caterpillar’s ex-post earnings price actions may drive Dow Jones Let’s examine the Dow Jones Industrial Average from a technical analysis perspective within a short-term time horizon (1…
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This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Dow Jones Technical: Minor pull-back found support with bullish elements sighted in Caterpillar”, published on 4 August 2025. The US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has kicked off the anticipated bullish impulsive upswing from the 1 August 2025 minor swing low of 43,335. It rallied by 2.9% from 4 August, surpassing the previous 43,100 record high in December 2024, and rallied to a new all-time intraday high of 45,283 on last Friday, 15 August’s Asian session, before it pulled back and closed at 45,032 at the end of the US session. Let’s now examine its latest medi…
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Most Read: Major NFP disappointment combined with sharp downward revisions Wall Street's main indexes dropped sharply today due to new U.S. tariffs on many trading partners and disappointing earnings from Amazon. A weaker jobs report also made investors more cautious. Just before the tariff deadline, President Trump signed an order adding taxes on imports from countries like Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan. The U.S. added fewer jobs in July than expected, and June's numbers were revised lower, showing the job market is slowing down. After this, traders increased their expectations for a September interest rate cut to 81.9%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The S&am…
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Equity Markets have been fluctuating in the past week, and this has concerned the Dow Jones even more than the more properly trending Nasdaq and S&P 500, which have been making all-time highs almost every day or two since the end of the Israel-Iran war. The picture in Equities is red throughout the globe as more tariff uncertainty gets into the bullish sentiment – Don't forget that the TACO Trade has been the ongoing theme, outshining Tariff Fears, which may be making a comeback. One aspect that the market has been examining is why the Dow Jones has been lagging against its major index counterparts. The more tech-focused Nasdaq and S&P are being dragged up by t…
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Despite the best efforts of today’s US GDP report, which upgraded Q2 growth estimates by some margin, US equities trade lower in today’s session and look to set to continue a three-day losing streak. Dow Jones, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500: Key takeaways 25/09/2025 At the time of writing, the Dow Jones stands at $45,911, down 0.67% for the day, while the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are at $24,325 and $6,604, down 0.91% and 0.71%, respectivelyWhile failing equity pricing following hot US GDP numbers seems counterintuitive, markets are interpreting how the economic data showing a stronger-than-expected economy will affect upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Re…
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The Dow is outperforming all major U.S. indices, fueled by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI report in today's session. The data, released at 10:00 ET, came in at 52.9 versus the forecasted 52, signaling not just expansion, but some form of resilience in the sector. S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist commented: “June saw a welcome return to growth for U.S. manufacturing production after three months of decline, with higher workloads driven by rising orders from domestic and export customers. Reviving demand has also encouraged factories to hire additional staff at a rate not seen since September 2022.” This uptick in manufacturing momentum suggests …
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