Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,320. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,400 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,250 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at $4,180 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,400 and $4,420. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,120 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,250 and $4,3…
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Solana (SOL) shook off a swift sell-off to $205 on Tuesday, rebounding above $209–$216 as institutional-sized wallets scooped the dip while over-levered retail longs were flushed. The slide coincided with U.S. shutdown jitters across risk assets, but crypto quickly mirrored equities’ intraday recovery. Order-flow dashboards (anchored CVD in the $1M–$10M bucket) show pro buyers adding on weakness, while funding briefly flipped negative—an attractive setup that encouraged fresh longs in spot and perps. Solana ETF Speculation Keeps Bulls Optimistic Ahead of October 10 The next major milestone for Solana is set to arrive on October 10, when the SEC is expected to decide…
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The euro is trading around 1.1735, above the 200 EMA, above the 21 SMA, and above the 8/8 Murray, which could indicate a recovery. However, EUR/USD is under bearish pressure as it is located within a downtrend channel. If the euro falls below the 8/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA in the coming hours, this could indicate a further bearish movement. Therefore, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 7/8 Murray at 1.1596 in the short term. A sharp break above 1.1765 could favor a recovery for the euro. In the short term, it could reach +1/8 Murray at 1.1840 and even reach +2/8 Murray at 1.1962. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart is showing a positive signal for the euro, so a recov…
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Bitcoin is trading around $118,750, around 6/8 Murray, and within the bullish trend channel formed on September 28. On the H1 chart, we can see that gold reached the 119,350 level, which coincided with the top of the bullish trend channel. In the coming hours, we can expect a technical correction for Bitcoin, which could reach the 21SMA around 117,247, and potentially even reach support at the bottom of the bullish trend channel, currently at 116,750. If Bitcoin consolidates above 118,750, it is expected to reach the top of the bullish trend channel around 119,566 and potentially surpass the psychological level of $120,000. On the other hand, if bullish strength prevails …
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Early in the European session, gold is trading around 3,865, below the 21SMA, and within the uptrend channel formed on September 19. Gold reached a high at about 3,895. From this level, we have seen a series of technical corrections. So, the instrument is likely to continue its decline until reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,840. If gold consolidates above 3,870 in the coming hours, we could expect a resumption of the uptrend. Hence, the metal could reach 3,906 around +2/8 Murray. On the other hand, while the gold price is trading below 3,870, the outlook could be negative, and a technical correction is expected that could push the price to the Murray le…
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[Platinum] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With all technical indicators pointing to bullish conditions, such as the RSI being at a Neutral-Bullish level and both EMAs forming a Golden Cross, today #PLF has the potential to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1654.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 1624.8 3. Pivot : 1600.7 4. Support. 1 : 1570.8 5. Support. 2 : 1546.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1600.7, it has the opportunity to test the next level at 1624.8. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1624.8 is breached and closes above that level, #PLF could strengthen further up to 1654.7. …
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[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With the RSI in the Extreme-Bullish area and both EMAs showing a Golden Cross, #NDX today has the potential to rally toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25064.1 2. Resistance. 1 : 24920.6 3. Pivot : 24663.9 4. Support. 1 : 24520.4 5. Support. 2 : 24263.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks and closes above 24663.9, it could move toward 25064.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 25,064.1 is successfully breached and closes above it, the Nasdaq 100 index could test the 25320.8 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #NDX drops and c…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade erratically, effectively moving sideways. The primary reason behind this choppy and unattractive behavior was the macroeconomic environment. Both the EU and the U.S. released several significant reports, each triggering its own market reaction. The day began with euro area inflation data, which, unlike German inflation, did not exceed forecasts. This disappointed traders and triggered a decline in the value of the euro. Later during the U.S. session, an extremely weak ADP labor market report was published. This report could serve as the main reference going forward if…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic factors. Since there were no major UK data releases during the day, the British pound avoided participating in the early-morning decline that affected other currencies. Given the generally unfavorable macro and fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, the pound continued its steady appreciation. The selloff in the dollar accelerated after the release of the extremely weak U.S. ADP employment report. The subsequent ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better, which helped the dollar recover briefly. However, it's important to remember that the U.S. governme…
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Following a massive Q3 performance, Solana (SOL) has kicked off “Uptober” with a bounce, attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its bullish rally. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency is ready to challenge the recent highs and enter a new price discovery phase. Solana Starts ‘Uptober’ In The Green After the recent market correction, Solana has started the new quarter with a 7.3% bounce from yesterday’s lows. Last week, the cryptocurrency fell from its recent highs and hit a local low of $190 after closing below the $200 support for the first time in nearly a month. Over the weekend, the altcoin reclaimed the crucial barrier and atte…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered significant. There are no reports planned in the UK or Germany. In the eurozone, only the unemployment rate will be published, and in the U.S., weekly jobless claims are scheduled. All of these reports are considered secondary and are likely to trigger only a mild market reaction. As a result, both currency pairs, which have recently shown lackluster movements, may experience low volatility and range-bound behavior today. Fundamental Events Analysis: Very few fundamental events are expected on Thursday — just a few speeches from European Cent…
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Key takeaways BoJ policy shift intact: Japan’s central bank is still moving gradually toward policy normalization, supporting renewed yen strength.Tankan survey improvement: Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large manufacturers improved to 14, its highest since Q4 2024, boosting economic confidence.Yield spread narrowing: US-Japan yield differentials are shrinking, making US Treasuries less attractive versus JGBs, pressuring USD/JPY lower.Technical setup: A break below 146.30 may trigger a medium-term bearish breakout, exposing deeper downside targets. After trading in a choppy sideways range for almost five months since late April 2025, the Japanese yen is likely on the br…
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network. In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to…
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The U.S. dollar has once again come under pressure, this time due to another round of weak fundamental data, which triggered a rally in risk assets — including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. The sharp drop in U.S. private-sector employment, as reported by ADP (down 32,000), led to an active sell-off of the dollar and strengthened the euro, pound, and yen. However, this disappointing labor market data was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI, which limited the dollar's downside momentum. These conflicting signals created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. On one hand, job losses highlight potential vulnerabilities in the U…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement. An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heigh…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3474 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a 40-pip rise. The sharp drop in U.S. employment data from ADP for August triggered a strong sell-off of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening of the British pound. Investors, concerned about a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery, quickly moved away from dollar-denominated assets, while the pound, conversely, found support amid expectations of a more cautious monetary policy from the Bank of England. However, this out…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.04 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For that reason, I did not initiate a sell trade. However, the bounce buy from 146.66 yielded about 40 pips in profit. A strong sell-off in the U.S. dollar occurred yesterday after the ADP report showed a drop of 32,000 in U.S. employment, signaling a potential need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This sudden employment data miss triggered a chain reaction in currency markets. Investors quickly reevaluated their expectations fo…
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During today's Asian session, Bitcoin reached the $119,500 level and doesn't seem to be slowing down. Ethereum is also trading above $4,400, poised to set a new all-time high potentially. A sharp spike in buying in October once again highlights the tendency for a strong fourth quarter in the crypto market. Yesterday, it was announced that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) will no longer be subject to the U.S. alternative minimum corporate tax. This is good news for many crypto-focused companies that are following in Strategy's footsteps. Given the increase in Bitcoin prices this year, Strategy was anticipating facing the 15% alternative minimum tax in 2026. This corporat…
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"Don't fight the Fed." Well, it depends on what the Federal Reserve is saying. Recent comments from Jerome Powell that U.S. equities are highly valued only briefly spooked investors. They quickly bought the dip and pushed the S&P 500 to its 29th record high. If the Fed Chair intended to scare the market, it didn't work. Historically, when the central bank has commented on the overvaluation of equities — going back to 1996 — the broad stock index has, on average, risen by 13% over the following 12 months. During that same period, it consistently outperformed its global peers. P/E Ratio Trends and Fed Mentions of S&P 500 Valuation In reality, the Fed's stance is und…
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Tether, the powerhouse behind the world’s largest stablecoin by trading volume, USDT, has unveiled a strategic plan to expand its presence in the US market, a landscape that has evolved significantly under the Trump administration. With the recent enactment of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a new regulatory framework for stablecoins and cryptocurrency firms issuing dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, Tether is eager to capitalize on these developments. Tether’s US Market Comeback In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, reaffirmed the firm’s plans to launch a new token, USAT, designed to comply with US regulations. Central to Tether’s strategy …
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The results of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Tankan survey for September, released on October 1, showed an improvement in the business conditions index (DI) by 1 point compared to June for large manufacturers, reaching +14. The index for large non-manufacturing firms remained at a very high level of +34. Forecasts for capital investment and current profits also remained stable despite tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. This provides a solid basis for expecting another round of wage increases next year, which in turn supports concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Overall, the Tankan report contributed to the arguments in favor of a rate hike at th…
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Yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.34%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.42%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.09%. Record growth in global indices extended to Asia: equities moved higher after OpenAI reached an agreement with South Korean chipmakers, boosting enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. Asian indices climbed by 1.1%, trading above the record closing level reached last month. The main growth leaders were semiconductor producers. Shares of Samsung Electronics Co. rose by 4.3%, and SK Hynix Inc. surged by 10% after OpenAI approached these companies with a request for chips. This pushed South Korean indices to a histori…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the market from the level of 1.1729 (yesterday's daily close) may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may roll back downward with a target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – upward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: on Thursday, the market from the level of 1.1729 (yesterday's daily c…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the market from the level of 1.3473 (yesterday's daily close) may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.3528 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). From this level, the price may roll back downward toward the target of 1.3401 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – upward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3473 (yesterday's daily close), the price may conti…
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The crypto market kicked off October with explosive momentum, adding $175 billion to the global crypto market cap in just 24 hours. The total now stands at $4.07 trillion, holding above a key psychological level as Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $118,721.73 2.00% Bitcoin BTC Price $118,721.73 2.00% /24h Volume in 24h $61.63B Price 7d …
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