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Palladium surged nearly 10% on Wednesday to a two-year high amid a relentless rally in precious metals that propelled both gold and silver prices to records. The metal, used primarily in catalytic converters in car exhaust systems, traded as high as $1,482.65 per ounce, the highest since May 2023. Over the past month, palladium has risen by more than 20%, riding the momentum of investment demand for safe-haven metals, in particular during a period of heightened political and economic uncertainty. In comparison, gold has gained 11% during that period, while silver rose by nearly 17%. Year to date, palladium is up by nearly 49%, almost mirroring the performance of gold, though the metal is still trading at nearly half its all-time high of $3,400 an ounce. Sponsored: Invest in rarity and strength — purchase palladium bullion confidently via Sprott Money.

Demand for the European currency continues to decline, but from my perspective, there is nothing alarming about that. We all want to see ideal wave patterns or perfect technical setups that provide clear entry opportunities and consistent profits. However, in practice, things often turn out differently. Currently, the euro's decline contradicts the wave structure. Wave 4 (if that's truly what it is) is taking on a five-wave form. This is possible within the a-b-c-d-e correctional formation. If the wave count is incorrect, the trend section that began on September 17 (right after the FOMC meeting) still doesn't appear impulsive in nature. Therefore, I don't expect a new downward trend segment to form in the near future. The main topic of discussion this week is the political crisis in France. I won't list every detail that's circulating online because, ultimately, they are not critical for market participants. I would simply say that the dissolution of Parliament would be a problem. Resignation of Emmanuel Macron would be a blow. But the appointment of a fifth prime minister in the last couple of years is not yet a crisis. Some analysts suggest Macron might dissolve the Parliament and call snap elections, where his party would further lose ground. The French president understands this and is unlikely to take such a step. The possibility of him "firing himself" is also very low. If in the past two years the fifth prime minister has already been appointed, then Macron has had at least four clear opportunities to step down. Since he didn't do so, then it's safe to assume he doesn't intend to now. Thus, everything points toward the appointment of a new prime minister, and the euro—if French domestic politics indeed drive its current decline—should begin to recover. Let me also remind you that traders should not be focused solely on France's political crisis. The situation in the United States remains extremely complex. Many economists are discussing the potential for a recession, despite the record GDP growth in Q2. Donald Trump continues to raise tariffs and may soon enter into an open confrontation with Russia and Venezuela. Perhaps it's not for nothing that the Department of Defense was renamed the Department of War. Global tensions continue to rise—due to geopolitics, trade barriers, and policymakers' inability to do their job, namely, to negotiate. Wave outlook for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to form an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background, particularly decisions made by Donald Trump, as well as the domestic and foreign policies of the White House. Target levels for the current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.2500 area. Currently, corrective wave 4 appears to be either complete or nearing completion. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, I'm currently only considering long positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% level on the Fibonacci scale. Wave outlook for GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming less readable. If wave 4 takes on a complex three-wave form, the overall structure should normalize. However, in this case, wave 4 will be significantly more complicated and larger than wave 2. In my view, the most practical approach now is to use the 1.3341 level as a reference point, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two unsuccessful attempts to break through this mark indicate the market's readiness for new buying waves. The instrument's targets still lie no lower than the 1.3800 range. Basic principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex formations often lead to change or breakdown.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it's better not to enter.There can never be 100% certainty regarding the direction of prices. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair updated its 8-month price high, firmly settling within the 152 range for the first time since February this year. The yen remains under intense pressure following the internal party elections within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in which Sanae Takaichi emerged victorious. This means she is now the most likely candidate to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. However, the leader of the ruling party does not automatically become head of government. Takaichi's nomination must still be approved by parliament — and the LDP does not hold a majority in either chamber. A failed attempt by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, who tried to strengthen his hand through snap elections, has left the Liberal Democrats dependent on their coalition partner, the Komeito party. The consequences of this dependence are now being felt. Negotiations over forming a new cabinet under Takaichi's leadership appear to be difficult. As a result, the extraordinary parliamentary session (in which her candidacy is to be ratified) has been postponed "at least until October 20" due to the lack of consensus with Komeito. The USD/JPY reacted to this news with a minor pullback, but still held within the 150 range. Traders remain confident that Takaichi will ultimately lead the Japanese government, with far-reaching implications. It's worth noting that her victory in the internal party elections was far from guaranteed: she was declared the winner only after a second round of voting, in which the former Interior Minister received 185 votes against Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's 156. This contributed to a sharp market reaction, as USD/JPY surged by 650 points in just three days. Takaichi is a known opponent of interest rate hikes and supports tax reductions and expansive economic stimulus measures. Following her victory, she declared that "the government must take responsibility for monetary policy" and that the Bank of Japan should consider "the best means to achieve its objectives." Crucially, she also suggested the government may revise the monetary policy agreement with the BOJ, which was concluded in 2013. That agreement reaffirmed the government and central bank's commitment to price stability, specifically targeting a 2% inflation rate. Potential Changes to the 2013 Framework What might change if the agreement is revised? 1.A More Flexible Inflation Target The first – and potentially most impactful – change could be a shift from a strict 2% inflation target to a more "flexible" or "medium-term" target. That would be bad news for the yen, as it would allow the BOJ to tolerate inflation above target for extended periods and delay rate hikes accordingly. 2.New Metrics Beyond Inflation The 2% target might be supplemented by additional metrics such as wage growth or employment. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate (inflation + employment), the BOJ currently focuses solely on price stability. If Japan's central bank starts taking labor market conditions into account, as the Federal Reserve does, that again puts pressure on the yen. For example, even if the BOJ acknowledges that 2% inflation has been achieved, it could still delay action if wage growth is deemed insufficient. Such prospects are bearish for the yen. The pullback in USD/JPY is a technical correction stemming from stalled negotiations between Sanae Takaichi and Komeito party leader Tetsuo Saito. However, this delay does not mean another candidate will replace Takaichi. The coalition partners are engaged in political bargaining, but a split in the alliance seems implausible — it would hurt both sides. Furthermore, the opposition lacks a unified, viable candidate to challenge Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary vote. Therefore, any corrective pullbacks in USD/JPY should be viewed as opportunities to enter long positions. From a technical standpoint, the pair remains either at the upper Bollinger Band or between its middle and upper bands across all higher timeframes. It is also trading above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator. On the H4 and D1 timeframes, this indicator has formed a bullish "Three Line Break" (or "Parade of Lines") pattern — reinforcing the long bias. The first and primary upside target remains 153.50 — the upper Bollinger Band line on the four-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Canada's trade deficit widened significantly in August, reaching 6.3 billion CAD compared to 3.8 billion CAD in July. The key factor behind this shift was the implementation of new tariffs, which led to a noticeable decline in exports to the United States. Weakened exports are expected to put pressure on GDP growth in the third quarter, which already looks uncertain after the disappointing second-quarter contraction of -0.4%. The likelihood of a rebound now appears low. Consumer demand in Canada is rising, primarily due to the Bank of Canada's rate cuts, which have encouraged household spending. Not even the threat of higher prices from new U.S. tariffs deterred Canadian consumers—household spending in Q2 rose by 4.5%. However, this surge remains insufficient to signal a robust recovery. Consumer spending is projected to grow at a monthly rate of just 1.3–1.4% through year-end, which is below the trend level. As consumption increases, the savings rate is falling, which, combined with still-high unemployment, may pose a risk to demand in the near future. The situation remains challenging for the Bank of Canada. Although the interest rate has been reduced from its peak of 5.00% to 2.75%, the accompanying boost to economic activity and household consumption has not been strong enough to shift the economy into sustained growth. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney headed to Washington, where trade relations between the U.S. and Canada will be at the top of the agenda. Whether he returns with positive outcomes remains to be seen. For now, it must be assumed that even the current 2.75% rate is not enough to support the economy. The Bank of Canada's next meeting is scheduled for October 29, and another rate cut is widely expected. On Friday, Canada's labor market report will be released. Forecasts indicate a negative outcome, with unemployment projected to rise to 7.2% and a net loss of 50,000 jobs. All indicators suggest that the Bank should continue cutting rates. The only obstacle to further easing could be inflationary risks. So far, signs of price pressure remain subdued. However, inflation is expected to rise in the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand, and whether Canada can avoid this global trend will become clearer with the inflation report due on October 21. In general, the Canadian economy remains too weak to assume that the Bank of Canada will conclude its rate-cutting cycle in October. As a result, pressure on the loonie is likely to grow, especially when factoring in the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish stance on future rate moves. The calculated fair price remains above the long-term average, supporting the view that there is continued upside. As expected, the USD/CAD pair has climbed somewhat higher, nearly reaching the resistance zone at 1.4010/30, where the upper edge of the channel is located. The middle of the channel, at 1.3905/20, serves as near-term support and could act as a target for a technical pullback. However, there is currently no strong fundamental reason for a deeper drop toward the lower band near 1.3780/3800. We expect the pair to resume its upward movement after forming a new base. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

With just one statement, Sebastien Lecornu saved France — and Europe! The speech by the outgoing prime minister, announcing progress in negotiations with political parties over the budget, led to a rebound in the CAC-40 index and a narrowing of the yield spread between French and German bonds. As a result, EUR/USD managed to find a footing. But how long will it last? Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds Achieving results requires efforts from both sides. Lecornu studied the demands of both the left- and right-wing parties and indicated a willingness to compromise. While he previously announced plans to set the budget deficit for next year at 4.7%, he now speaks of a figure below 5%. According to HSBC, had the still-serving prime minister adopted a harder line on this issue, the EUR/USD would likely not have been able to reach the 1.20 mark by 2025. It seems that the euro is afraid of extreme scenarios, whether that be parliamentary or presidential elections in France. However, it's entirely possible that just clarifying the situation and the president announcing a vote would be enough to reignite the EUR/USD rally. It was the same with U.S. tariffs. As long as there was uncertainty, problems persisted. Once the White House started signing trade agreements, everything started to stabilize. Even if import tariffs stand at 15%, businesses simply need to know the rates and how to comply. However, appetite grows with eating. According to a Bloomberg insider report, in early October, Washington sent new proposals to the EU aimed at achieving mutual, fair, and balanced trade. Brussels deemed them maximalist, with the requested concessions considered too steep. Will a new trade war erupt? No one knows — but escalation of the conflict would hardly suit the eurozone, the European Central Bank, or EUR/USD. Unusual activity in the futures market suggests further volatility may lie ahead. Traders are pricing in three rounds of monetary easing by the European Central Bank in 2026. Derivatives currently estimate the scale of this easing at a modest 10 basis points. The odds of such a move are only 1%, but stranger things have happened. If that trade plays out, returns could be 30-fold. Dynamics of the Expected Scale of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Expansion Should the ECB ease policy in 2026, or if the Fed chooses not to lower the federal funds rate during one of its 2025 FOMC meetings (either in October or December), euro bulls would lose one of their key advantages. Such a scenario is possible but unlikely. That's why the current pullback, driven by the escalation of the political crisis in France, looks more like a correction than a true trend reversal. On the daily chart, EUR/USD broke out of its fair value range, only to rebound from the convergence zone created by pivot levels at 1.1590–1.1605. If the pair fails to break through this zone on its second attempt, traders should close shorts opened from 1.1710 and shift back to long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Wednesday, the euro-dollar pair attempted to break into the 1.15 range, testing the support level at 1.1610. At this price point, the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud coincides with both the upper edge and the Bollinger Bands line on the D1 time frame. This price movement is due to the simultaneous strengthening of the U.S. dollar and weakening of the euro. The news flow from both sides of the Atlantic is indeed exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The European currency is under pressure due to developments in France. Much to the disappointment of EUR/USD buyers, the political crisis in France continues to deteriorate — the latest resignation of another prime minister has not yet been followed by a swift replacement, at least for now. It has been reported that on Wednesday evening (i.e., during the U.S. trading session), President Emmanuel Macron will make an important statement, the subject of which remains confidential. Formally, this marks the end of the 48-hour deadline Macron gave former Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu to negotiate with political forces. Macron may appoint a new prime minister—likely someone from the center-left. This would be the least radical step (likely to be positively received by the euro), but it would be a negative outcome for Macron himself, since it would mean he would have to compromise on some key reforms (most notably, the pension reform). Therefore, some analysts have suggested that Macron might announce the dissolution of the National Assembly—the lower house of the French parliament—on Wednesday evening, given the indirect signs indicating the likelihood of this scenario. According to French newspaper Le Figaro, Macron held two meetings on Tuesday with high-ranking politicians: the speaker of the National Assembly, Yael Braun-Pivet, and the Senate speaker, Gerard Larcher. On the one hand, such consultations are non-binding — Macron could simply be seeking a solution through talks with influential officials. On the other hand, these consultations are legally required before dissolving the lower house of parliament. This is explicitly stated in Article 12 of the French Constitution. The political intrigue continues, and EUR/USD traders are clearly nervous, adding further pressure to the pair. After all, according to all polls, the far right is expected to significantly strengthen its position in parliament if early elections are held. Marine Le Pen's National Rally could gain around 220 seats, while the party currently has just 125 seats in the lower chamber. Although the right is unlikely to obtain an outright majority, its political influence would be significantly greater than it is now. France is the second-largest economy in the EU and the eurozone; amid overall uncertainty, the euro has come under substantial pressure. Additional pressure on the euro came from German industrial order data. Since May of this year, this indicator has been in negative territory; however, in August, orders were expected to increase by 1.3% month-over-month (m/m), following a 2.7% decline in July. Contrary to forecasts, however, they decreased by 0.8%. Meanwhile, the dollar index is showing upward momentum, despite the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. This dynamic is partly driven by the French political crisis, which has triggered a spike in risk-off sentiment. Japan has also played a role, where former Interior Minister Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of "Abenomics" and dovish monetary policy, won intra-party elections. There are growing (and well-founded) concerns in the markets that if she becomes prime minister, she may push for greater fiscal expansion and slower interest rate hikes. Against the backdrop of these major developments, interest in risk assets has diminished, while the safe-haven dollar is once again in high demand. In addition, the U.S. dollar received support from the results of a survey published yesterday by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. According to the results of this monthly survey, Americans' inflation expectations for the coming year rose in September to a five-year high of 3.4% (up from 3.2% in the previous month). Expectations for food inflation also increased to 5.8% (from 5.5% the prior month). This is the highest reading since March 2023. These factors help explain why the EUR/USD pair has been declining for three consecutive days. But are they sufficient to sustain a lasting downward trend? In my opinion, the pair is falling on too shaky a foundation — especially considering the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. For instance, if Emmanuel Macron announces the appointment of a new prime minister, the euro could receive significant support (even though the underlying political crisis in France would remain unresolved). Likewise, although Sanae Takaichi won the intra-party election, she has yet to become Japan's prime minister — the parliamentary session has been postponed until at least October 20 due to a deadlock in coalition talks with the Komeito party. At the same time, the U.S. shutdown could escalate at any moment due to mass layoffs of federal employees, who are currently on unpaid leave. All of this suggests that, with regard to the EUR/USD pair, it is wise to maintain a wait-and-see approach — at least until Macron's speech, which will either bring an end (or an ellipsis) to the political crisis, or "open Pandora's box" by dissolving the National Assembly. On the brink of such significant — even fateful — developments, any trading decision appears overly risky. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The XRP community has been called to attention after a new analysis linked the cryptocurrency’s trajectory to a powerful market force that many have overlooked. A recent breakdown by crypto analyst Austin Hilton has spotlighted a direct connection between XRP and Bitcoin that could shape how investors position themselves ahead of what could be one of the most explosive altcoin runs in years. How Bitcoin’s Performance Could Dictate XRP’s Next Move Hilton shared a video analysis on X social media, discussing a simple yet powerful correlation that shows the Bitcoin price action tends to influence the direction of XRP. At the time of his analysis, XRP was trading around $3, posting a 1.65% increase, while the total crypto market capitalization stood at approximately $4.21 trillion, up by 1.3%. Within this massive market, Bitcoin alone accounted for approximately $2.45 trillion, which represents 58% of the entire cryptocurrency market cap. Hilton noted that this overwhelming dominance positions BTC as the central gravity point of the crypto ecosystem. According to him, when the Bitcoin price rises, XRP typically follows, and when it falls, XRP tends to move in the same direction. He stated that the reason lies in the market’s capital structure. Bitcoin remains the most recognizable digital asset, boasting the strongest institutional and retail liquidity. Its price movements influence how capital flows into other major cryptocurrencies, particularly XRP, which has consistently held the third-largest market capitalization position. Adding significant weight to Hilton’s analysis is the growing involvement of major financial institutions in the crypto market. Both JP Morgan and Citigroup recently made public forecasts, projecting that Bitcoin could rise to between $133,000 and over $200,000 by the end of the year. This represents a dramatic reversal from JP Morgan’s position a year ago, when its CEO, Jamie Dimon, dismissed BTC as a “ponzie scheme,” even as the bank was quietly investing in the cryptocurrency and its ETF. Hilton has stated that these institutional endorsements point to a potential historic bull run in the making. Additionally, because XRP is so tightly correlated with Bitcoin’s performance, a surge to $200,000 could ignite a strong upward momentum. Liquidity Flow To Push XRP Price Beyond $20 In his video analysis, Hilton emphasized that understanding liquidity flows in crypto is crucial for XRP holders. Bitcoin, as the dominant asset, attracts the bulk of new capital entering the market. Once that liquidity flows into BTC, it naturally shifts into other top assets, such as Ethereum and XRP. With ETH’s market cap at roughly $546 billion and XRP at $179 billion, Hilton notes that XRP sits in a prime position to benefit directly from this capital movement. As a result, if Bitcoin jumps to $200,000 in Q4, the analyst predicts that XRP could surge to $10-$20 or more by year-end.

Bitcoin faced a swift correction below the $125,000 level after reaching a new all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, triggering widespread volatility across the market. The price retraced over 4% to around $120,000, liquidating millions in leveraged positions as traders anticipated further upside. The move caught many off guard, especially after days of strong momentum and renewed optimism that Bitcoin was preparing to enter another price discovery phase. Despite the pullback, key on-chain data reveals a contrasting trend beneath the surface — a massive accumulation by US investors. Analysts note that while short-term traders faced liquidations, spot demand from US-based buyers continues to grow, particularly through regulated platforms and ETFs. This steady inflow of capital provides a strong foundation for long-term market strength, even amid short-term volatility. The correction may have flushed out excessive leverage, resetting market conditions for a healthier continuation. As Bitcoin consolidates around the $120,000–$122,000 range, analysts are watching closely to see whether institutional accumulation can offset the selling pressure. For now, the broader trend remains bullish, with growing evidence that US investors are using every dip to increase exposure to the world’s leading digital asset. US Demand Surges As Coinbase Premium Gap Signals Accumulation Top onchain analyst Maartunn shared new data revealing a sharp increase in US-based Bitcoin accumulation, driven largely by activity on Coinbase, one of the most influential exchanges for institutional and retail investors in the United States. According to his insights, the Coinbase Premium Gap — which measures the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and other global exchanges — has surged to its second-highest level since the ETF launch earlier this year. This spike signals an aggressive buying spree from US investors, suggesting strong spot demand that is outpacing global averages. Historically, similar jumps in the Coinbase Premium Gap have coincided with phases of major market expansion, often preceding new highs as US capital flows into Bitcoin-led rallies. The data indicates that US traders are willing to pay a higher premium compared to their counterparts on platforms like Binance or OKX — a clear expression of localized demand. Analysts interpret this as a bullish signal in the context of Bitcoin’s current consolidation near all-time highs. After a brief correction from $126,000 to $120,000, strong institutional interest could provide the liquidity needed for a new breakout. Many market watchers believe that such robust accumulation is rarely random; it often precedes a significant expansive move, as buyers position themselves before another upward leg. If this buying pressure sustains, Bitcoin could soon reclaim its highs and enter a new phase of price discovery. Combined with growing ETF inflows and steady US accumulation trends, Maartunn’s data reinforces the narrative that the market’s next major impulse may once again be led by US demand — the same catalyst that ignited Bitcoin’s previous all-time high breakout earlier this year. Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Rally Bitcoin is currently trading around $122,500, showing signs of stabilization after the recent surge to an all-time high near $126,000 earlier this week. The chart highlights a healthy pullback from the highs, with BTC finding support just above the $120,000 level — a zone that previously acted as resistance and has now turned into a short-term support range. The 8-day and 21-day moving averages are trending upward, confirming the continuation of a bullish structure. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average remains below the price, indicating that momentum still favors the bulls despite short-term volatility. If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $120,000–$121,000 region, the setup could attract renewed buying pressure for another attempt to break above the $125,000 resistance. However, failure to maintain these levels could open the door for a retest of the $117,500 area, where the next major support lies. This would still be within a healthy correction range following the recent 15% rally. Overall, Bitcoin’s structure remains bullish, with strong higher lows forming and institutional demand — led by Coinbase inflows — continuing to support the market. A decisive move above $125,000 could signal the beginning of a new price discovery phase. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 8 Today's session saw the continuation of the weekly flows, with the US Dollar higher and Gold breaking new milestones. The US-Canada deal seems to be getting closer from the recent remarks made by Canada's Carney. US Equities sparked a huge reversal higher with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, yet again. Nothing really explained yesterday's risk-off session, therefore dip buyers just came and bought things back. The Dow remains a lagger throughout this week after showing just a wick above the 47,000 threshold. In geopolitics, Trump mentioned in a roundtable talk that Middle East discussions are going towards the right direction and the US President should head to Egypt to finalize the Deal. You can read more about the Deal right here. The Royal Bank of New Zealand also surprised Markets with a 50 bps Jumbo cut (which was 50% priced in ahead of the decision). The news got followed with a huge selloff for the Kiwi before markets started to price out cuts later in 2026. A larger cut tends to generate higher economic prospects and future expectation expectations. Hence, the NZD still recovered most of what it had lost. You can access more on the rate decision here. Read More:North American mid-week Market update – US-Canada deal approachingWho said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?Weakness showdown: NZD vs JPY in the FX marketsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at this daily asset picture, one may ask himself: If everything is going up, then what is giving ? The answer is in the Yen getting absolutely killed this week (take a look at USDJPY, catastrophic!). The CHF is also getting sold off quite aggressively with more dovish talks from the SNB – Carry trades are getting put back aggressively from what it seems. This makes even more sense when looking at the huge rallies in Crypto and Equities around the world. Kudos to the European Indices which are brushing off the usual French government mess ups and are rallying strongly nonetheless. A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 8 – Source: OANDA Labs FX volatility is back strong! Look at the huge recovery in the NZD, something to keep an eye on and remember. Apart from that, weekly flows are continuing with the AUD still gaining (very consitent performer of the past month) with the CAD and USD just following each other. As mentioned just before, both the CHF and JPY are getting sold off aggressively in what could be a return of the Carry Trade. A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours in markets will be dominated by central bank chatter. The daily session concludes with a trio of Fed speakers — Kashkari, Barr, and Kashkari again — followed by Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations (20:00 ET). Thursday should be busier, even with the absence of US/BLS data : the ECB’s Meeting Accounts (07:30 ET) open the European session, followed by Fed Chair Powell at 08:30 ET, the US Jobless Claims, and a long lineup of Fed officials including Bowman, Barr, and Daly. Across the Pacific, traders will also watch New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI and a key speech from RBA Governor Bullock (18:00 ET) for clues on regional policy direction. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

According to Santiment, XRP is seeing its highest level of retail fear, uncertainty and doubt in six months. That surge in negativity is being read by some analysts as a contrarian signal — fear on the street could come just before a turnaround. While traders grumble, on-chain data shows crowd mood tipping toward worry, and Santiment points out that when retail panic grows, markets have a habit of moving in the opposite direction. Retail Fear Hits Six-Month High Based on reports from the blockchain analytics firm, the bullish-to-bearish ratio reached 3.21 on Sept. 17 during a wave of euphoria, then fell to 0.74 on Oct. 4 as frustration rose. The ratio moved slightly to 0.86 on Oct. 6. Over the last three days tracked, bearish commentary outweighed bullish views for two days, which Santiment interprets as a possible bottom signal. Traders should note that these mood swings are being measured by crowd talk, and when optimism climbed too high earlier, that was flagged as a reliable top signal. Technical Levels To Watch Reports have disclosed key price points that traders are watching closely. XRP is trading at $2.85 and still has not cleared the $3 barrier that it reached briefly in the past few weeks. Support is placed around $2.60–$2.80, and analyst CryptoInsightUK says the $2.72 to $2.75 zone remains a major structural level. Holding above that range shows buyers have stepped in repeatedly since the rally from $0.50, the analyst added. Breaks above $3.17 and $3.65 would be seen by some as confirmation of stronger upside momentum. Analysts Expect A Possible Breakout Based on technical notes from CryptoInsightUK, a move following the 4.236 Fibonacci extension could reach $6.90, with a larger wave potentially taking prices toward $8–$12. Meanwhile, professor Astrones has also identified a bullish structure on charts, calling the setup “pumpy” and pointing to a narrowing range that could break higher. Patterns like a descending triangle can break either way, so traders are watching for a clear close above the stated targets. In the broader market, Bitcoin has shot to a new high above $126,000, and Ethereum has climbed to within 4% of its record peak. Yet XRP has struggled to push past $3. That contrast has left some investors scratching their heads. At the same time, XRP has not fallen below $2.60 since the breakout that took it to $3.66 in July, which supports the view that buying interest exists underneath current levels. For now, data and sentiment point toward a possible setup where fear fades before prices rise. Featured image from Fingerlakes1.com, chart from TradingView

Demand for the euro continues to fall against the backdrop of the political crisis in France and the sharp drop in Germany's industrial production. In my view, the market is not currently factoring in all the available elements, but let's assume it is pricing them in one by one. This week, most of the news has come from the Eurozone, but in the second half of the week, the situation will likely shift in the opposite direction. Let me remind you that ECB President Christine Lagarde has already spoken three times this week. In some of her speeches, she avoided the subject of monetary policy, while in others she said she was satisfied with the current level of inflation, though minor upside risks remain. Also this week, the French Prime Minister resigned, no replacement has yet been found, and Emmanuel Macron has not announced snap parliamentary elections. Overall, it can be said—with some reservations—that the decline in demand for the euro is logical. However, in my opinion, the dollar still faces factors that the market is not accounting for. For example, the ECB does not intend to lower interest rates any further, since there is no need to do so. Lagarde did not say this outright, but her "deputy," Luis de Guindos, stated this on Monday. According to de Guindos, inflation risks in the Eurozone are balanced and the regulator's forecasts are materializing. Based on this, there is no need to change monetary policy in the near future. Thus, it is highly likely that the ECB has completed its cycle of monetary easing. If the ECB will no longer cut rates, the euro loses one of its pressure factors. In the first half of the year, this factor was irrelevant for market participants, and now we see the euro declining in a way that also does not correspond to ECB officials' statements. How long will the market continue to price in the political crisis in France? Logically, not for very long, since it is not such a significant event. The wave structure of the EUR/USD instrument will probably shift somewhat, but it will take a few days to see where the current downward wave ends. Wave Picture for EUR/USD:Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward trend section. The wave structure still fully depends on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policies of the new White House Administration. The targets of the current trend section may reach the 1.25 level. At the moment, a corrective wave 4 is forming, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains valid. Therefore, in the near term, I consider only buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Picture for GBP/USD:The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive trend section, but its internal wave structure is becoming unreadable. If wave 4 takes on a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize, but in this case, wave 4 will turn out to be much more complex and extended than wave 2. In my view, the best approach now is to work from the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break through this level indicated the market's readiness for new buying. The instrument's targets remain not below the 1.38 level. The Main Principles of My Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.Absolute certainty about market direction never exists. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months, but in recent weeks it has become more complex. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend section is canceled, but a further decline in the euro will require adjustments. The formation of the upward trend section continues, while the news background largely does not favor the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations regarding the Fed rate are growing. The U.S. "shutdown" continues. The market evaluates the results of Trump's first 7–8 months in office rather poorly, even though GDP growth in the second quarter reached nearly 4%. At the moment, it can be assumed that impulse wave 5 continues to build, with potential targets stretching up to the 1.25 level. Within this wave, the structure is rather complex and ambiguous, but the higher-scale structure raises few questions. Currently, three upward waves can be seen, meaning the instrument is forming wave 4 inside wave 5, which is taking a three-wave form and may already be completed. The EUR/USD rate dropped another 20 points on Wednesday after losing 55 on Tuesday. The decline in demand for the euro may be linked to the political crisis in France, which has been widely discussed in recent days. However, in my opinion, politics is being discussed only because there's nothing else to talk about. The news background this week is very weak. Tonight, a somewhat interesting FOMC minutes report will be released, but the results of the Fed meeting, the voting on the interest rate, and the overall stance of the regulator are already well known. Tomorrow, Jerome Powell will speak, but what can the Fed Chair comment on if Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, and inflation data were not released due to the U.S. shutdown? Certainly, Powell could always surprise. He could, for example, state that the Fed remains committed to easing, since it is clear that one rate cut is not enough to stimulate the labor market. Or, conversely, admit that without economic data, the Fed cannot make a balanced decision without harming the U.S. economy. For now, it remains a mystery. This morning, Germany released its industrial production report. Volumes in August fell by 4.3%, which can be considered a record drop. The euro had already been falling before the report, as if the market anticipated it. After the release, the decline actually stopped. But overall, demand for the instrument continues to fall, which contradicts the current wave structure. General ConclusionsBased on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward trend section. The wave structure still depends entirely on the news background related to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policies of the White House administration. The targets of the current trend section may reach the 1.25 level. At present, a corrective wave 4 is forming, which may be nearing completion. The bullish wave structure remains valid. Therefore, in the near future, I consider only buying opportunities. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend section is visible. The wave structure is not the most standard, since corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 of wave 3. However, this also happens. I would remind you that it is better to identify clear structures on charts rather than trying to account for every single wave. Currently, the upward structure raises almost no questions. The Main Principles of My Analysis Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.Absolute certainty in market direction never exists. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. As the Wednesday session draws to a close, NA markets are seeing meaningful shifts across the geopolitical and financial landscape. The U.S. dollar staged a strong rebound on the markets front, confirming the thesis that the year’s low for the greenback has likely been reached. The fresh FOMC Minutes release is triggering a brief pullback, but the dollar remains firmly above its August highs. This strength came despite Gold touching the $4,000 level, a consequent rally typically dampening USD momentum. Read More: Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?What to take from the October 2025 FOMC Minutes Meanwhile, optimism grew north of the border as a trade and industrial cooperation deal between the U.S. and Canada is taking shape. Through some meetings taking place yesterday and today, Canada's PM Mark Carney met with Donald Trump to discuss the key steel and auto sectors further, signaling progress on a deal. – These sectors are posing the most significant disagreements between the two neighbours. The agreement, expected to ease inflationary pressures while supporting the slowing economies (particularly Canada), is being viewed as a double positive for both countries. Canadian equities are reacting accordingly, with aluminum and auto-related stocks outperforming mid-week. On the geopolitical side, reports from Axios suggest that a tentative deal has been concluded, as indicated by one of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s closest reporters. Markets will now turn their attention to the news from the Egypt meeting – This provides another fundamental boost to the US Dollar, as President Trump brokered the 20-point deal. Overall, North American markets are closing the mid-week session on a constructive note, supported by a resilient U.S. dollar, constructive trade headlines, and improving geopolitical sentiment. Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts. North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite some individual names rallying, the TSX (Canadian Equity Market) has failed to make new highs but still overperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones on the weekly. European stocks are nonetheless dominating their North American peers, with Nasdaq still trying to play catch up as the price action in tech continues to explode today. Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView As mentioned in the introduction, the US Dollar has strengthened considerably this week as Markets continue to disregard the Government shutdown. From what it seems, the USD rally really is about the Middle East deal putting back American diplomacy on the front lines. Of course, weakness in other currencies is playing its part in the ongoing flows. The current candles don't look like continuation ones; sellers don't look very hungry. A small retracement has the highest odds of happening, but focus on the daily close. To access the detailed levels and a further analysis of the Greenback, I invite you to take a look at this piece released this morning. US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, October 8, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The overall change against its counterparts doesn't look too big for the USD, but I'd like to point that most of the rally has occurred throughout this week. Only the AUD takes the crown since beginning October. Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, October 8, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The CAD performance is still not the brightest but it has stopped bleeding against other majors. The rest will be to see if a deal actually materializes and may allow the Loonie to rally back against European currencies particularly, against which it is at multi-decade lows. Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Not much has moved since yesterday's USDCAD analysis. Still held in a triangle formation, with both the USD and CAD strengthening in tandem, it leaves a relative strength outlook a bit blurry. Watch headlines regarding a deal that would give a further advantage to the Canadian Dollar. Levels to place on your USDCAD charts: Resistance Levels Weekly highs 1.39866Session highs 1.39715Friday Sep 29 resistance around 1.39601.40 Major resistanceApril 3 lows around 1.4050Support Levels mini-support line & MA 50 1.39401.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot1.3850 to 1.3860 support1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar In the absence of BLS data (Including Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls), Fed Speakers are appearing in masses and will fill up the North American calendar. A government shutdown is not happening in Canada, hence Markets will await their Employment data (Friday morning 8:30 AM ET) which has been degrading quite a bit as of late. If a deal pulls through, this could be a potential low for the Canadian Labor market. Let's see how all of the talks go. Of course, do not forget the weekly University-of-Michigan Consumer sentiment and Inflation expectations Friday at 10:00 A.M. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The FOMC Minutes for the September meeting just got released. Overall, the minutes largely reinforced what markets had priced in: the Fed sees room to ease, but is willing to wait for clearer signs. (They might have trouble to do so with the incumbent Government shutdown preventing data releases) There has been some mentions of the current financial conditions being "not particularly restrictive" and some more upside risks to Employment – As the Fed looks to focus more on Employment looking forward, "upside risks" can be considered dovish. Nonetheless, many members did emphasize "upside risks to their outlook for inflation" which puts up Neutral Rate estimates on the long-run. You can access the Minutes remark right here. The most important mentions were: "borrowing costs generally declined but remained elevated relative to their average post–Global Financial Crisis (GFC) levels" on Interest Rates“Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting … and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting.” on future FOMC decisions"the projection of real GDP growth was revised up somewhat, on balance, for this year through 2028, primarily reflecting stronger-than-expected data for both consumer spending and business investment" on the Economy. There has also been some mentions of geopolitics, with the FED looking progressively into how it will affect the outlook. To resume, the Fed is not afraid of the Economy falling for now, some heavier concerns for Employment and high concerns for inflation. US Dollar reactions Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar initially formed a doji but is starting to sell off – Watch for some dovish pricing but except for anything crazy, markets shouldn't go too far. The Minutes rarely are such market movers. You can also access our most recent in-depth US Dollar analysis here. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has shown renewed strength on the weekly timeframe by resuming a steady uptrend that began earlier in the year. After several weeks of ranging between $110,000 and $120,000, Bitcoin is now on intense momentum supported by institutional demand, which has led to a new all-time high in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, technical analysis of Bitcoin’s weekly price chart shows the cryptocurrency is gearing up for an explosion to $200,000. This projection is based on Bitcoin’s ongoing price behavior being an exact replica of Gold’s rally during the 1970s. Bitcoin Aligning With the 1970s Gold Rally An interesting technical analysis shared by Mikybull Crypto on the social media platform X details how Bitcoin’s price action on the 1-week and 2-week candlestick charts is following a path walked by Gold in prior decades. His latest post on X draws parallels between Bitcoin’s ongoing price behavior and Gold’s rally during the 1970s, an era that saw the precious metal surge massively. Now, it seems that Bitcoin is now mirroring that same macro setup and could be gearing toward a price explosion to $200,000 or higher. In one of the charts shared by Mikybull, Gold’s price action from the mid-1970s to 1980 is overlaid with Bitcoin’s multi-year trajectory. This Gold price chart shows a consolidation phase followed by a powerful breakout in the late 1970s. According to Mikybull, Bitcoin’s structure follows this trend almost perfectly. In his analysis, he noted that Bitcoin’s price is forming higher lows above a macro ascending trendline, the same kind of structure that preceded Gold’s explosive run. Gold’s third breakout wave (Wave 5) ushered in this run, and Mikybull projected that Bitcoin is now entering a similar phase, as shown by the blue ellipse in the chart below. Mikybull’s comparison also integrated the legendary Livermore Speculative Chart, which is an early 20th-century framework, to track Bitcoin’s behavior. Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly timeframe follows a structure labeled from one through ten, each level corresponding to phases in the Livermore Speculative Chart. Why Bitcoin Can Explode To $200,000 May Only Be the Beginning For Bitcoin As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is currently trading around the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level below $125,000 and is playing out the eighth stage of Livermore’s speculative cycle. Current market trends point to Bitcoin advancing past the eighth stage at the 1.618 Fib level ($145,355) to then advance to the ninth stage of the cycle, which is just above the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level at $204,000. After that lies the tenth stage, around the 3.618 extension at $262,000, projected to be the final peak of this cycle based on Livermore’s speculative cycle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $121,450, having retraced slightly after its most recent all-time high of $126,080 on October 6.

This article is a follow up from the previous article on the Australian Dollar titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? Is the Aussie Dollar Poised for Gains? As discussed in the previous Australian Dollar article titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? The Aussie Dollar may be poised for a rally. Since the interest rate decision by the RBA the Aussie Dollar has flattered to deceive. AUD/USD has faced a challenge given the US Dollars recent renaissance but that rally is likely to run out of steam soon in my opinion. The fact that the RBA are holding rates and the Fed expected to cut bodes well for the AUD/USD pair to rise higher. The US government shutdown appears to be benefitting the US Dollar at the moment and there is a possibility that this persists for a little while longer. What this could mean for AUD/USD is that we could see a continued grind over the coming days and weeks until the US government shutdown ends and US data releases begin filtering through. Commodity Rally to Benefit the Australian Dollar? There is another factor to consider and that is the continued rally of commodity markets such as Gold, Silver and Copper. The Australian Dollar is considered a commodity currency and usually gains when the precious metal markets are on the rise. This definitely adds weight to the theory that a rally for the Aussie Dollar may be in the offing. The technicals further support the idea for the AUD/USD to rally higher. Let us take a look at why. Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, AUD/USD has been consolidating and edging lower over the last 6 or so trading days, Having broken the bull flag pattern which was in play the pair looked poised for a rally but has since had a pullback to a key level of confluence. The level/area in question around 0.6550-0.6500 houses the 50 and 10-day MAs. The daily candle also looks poised to close with a downside wick highlighting the potential buying pressure in this price zone. If an upside rally does materialize, the measured move potential from the flag breakout is around 70 pips. This would mean a potential retest for AUD/USD of the recent highs at around the 6685 handle. A move beyond that level would bring the 0.6750 and 0.7000 psychological level into focus. If AUD/USD pushes lower from here, immediate support rests at 0.6542, 0.6530 and 0.6500. A break below 0.6500 could open up a retest of the 200-day MA, which rests at the 0.6418 handle. AUD/USD Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 Source:TradingView.com Client Sentiment Data - AUD/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on the AUD/USD with 60% of traders Net-Long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are Long means AUD/USD could fall in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (08/10/2025): In the most recent episode, we discuss the astronomical rally in precious metal pricing, the knock-on effects of the US government shutdown on Fed monetary policy, alongside a preview of FOMC minutes due to be released later today. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Finding support yesterday, USD/CHF trades 0.54% higher in today’s session, at 0.80251, crucially above the key level of 0.8000 for the first time since late September. In recent memory, the 0.80000 psychological level has presented a key area of resistance; therefore, the subsequent few sessions remain as important as ever if bullish momentum is to be sustained. USD/CHF: Key takeaways 08/10/2025 Mainly owing to dollar strength, with the dollar strength index (DXY) recently posting four-week highs, USD/CHF has found some buying support, but remains down 11.57% year-to-dateWhile seemingly more at peace with a strong franc than in recent memory, deflationary risks remain prevalent in the Swiss economy, with September’s CPI reading coming in lower than expected at 0.2% YoYOtherwise, and amid the current US Government Shutdown, a flight to dollar liquidity is offering some uplift to USD pricing Read more FX coverage from MarketPulse: Weakness showdown: NZD vs JPY in the FX markets Currency Power Balance, OANDA Global Markets, 08/10/2025 USD/CHF: Dollar upside the main catalyst for dollar-franc rally Trading at lows not seen since 2022, it would appear that markets are not entirely comfortable with the current position of the dollar. While there is no secret that 2025 has been a poor year for dollar performance, recent upside has been coined a ‘repricing trade’ by some, suggesting a level of technical buying from multi-year lows. Simultaneously, we’ve seen other major currencies weaken, particularly the Japanese yen, with the new dovish leadership allowing the DXY to strengthen somewhat. As ever, let’s discuss some of the major fundamental themes to consider when trading USD/CHF currently: High interest rates: Put simply, the United States offers the highest interest rates available across all G10 countries. While this is just one piece of the currency puzzle, higher rates in comparison to other currencies attract global interest, offering a significant carry advantage - especially in the case of USD/CHF. Technical buying: As a personal anecdote, I once knew a trader who would only ever buy the dollar when trading FX. Case in point, markets are not accustomed to a weak dollar, especially over the last decade or so. As such, and in line with other technical analysis principles, some view current dollar pricing as an opportunity to get long. Flight to liquidity: While logically, a US government shutdown would bode poorly for the greenback, this has proven true in recent sessions. Although confidence in the US government has been somewhat undermined, a flight to global liquidity in an effort to balance currency risk is bolstering USD gains. This phenomenon is relatively unique to the dollar, owing to its status as the world's #1 reserve currency. US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) & Swiss Franc Strength Index (SXY), TVC, TradingView, 08/10/2025 USD/CHF: Persistent Swiss deflationary risk casts shadow over safe-haven status Met with persistently weak inflation, coming in below expectations at 0.2% in September’s report, the Swiss economy is dangerously close to deflationary territory, raising serious questions about the reliability of the franc as a safe-haven currency and fueling speculation of a return to negative interest rates. While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has made at least some suggestions that they are less concerned with CHF strength, it would be foolish to suggest that policy intervention remains entirely off the table. As such, markets are apprehensive about taking further USD/CHF shorts, wary of a potential for intervention ruining an otherwise profitable trade, effectively limiting USD/CHF downside in the short-term. USD/CHF: Technical Analysis 08/10/2025USD/CHF: Daily (D1) chart analysis: USD/CHF, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 08/10/2025 Breaking out of a downwards descending channel in today’s session, the next few trading days will be crucial if USD/CHF hopes to extend weekly gains above 0.80000. While a dovish Fed might put a lid on USD gains, should the price be able to form a base, we can expect some further upside. Using the default period of 14, the RSI also has some way to go before overbought levels, suggesting that further upside is possible. Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target 1 (R1) - 78.6% Fib - 0.80575Support 1 (S1) - 78.6% Fib - 0.79935Support 2 (S2) - Bottom of range - 0.79465 Otherwise, and to secure a bearish move, price would have to break the second support. In this scenario, the next stop would likely be around 0.79095. Read about today’s rally in precious metal pricing: Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Up 1.5% on the Day. Is Gold's $4,000 Breakout Sustainable? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin’s next leg higher sits inside a broader “everything, everywhere, all at once” bull market that echoes the 1950s more than the 1990s—and the underlying engine is fiat debasement that will continue to funnel monetary premiums into neutral reserve assets such as Bitcoin and gold. That is the core of veteran macro analyst and investor Mel Mattison’s thesis in a wide-ranging interview on Milk Road Macro published Monday, October 7. Mattison, a former fintech executive with 25+ years in finance, argues that investors are misreading the cycle by citing relationships from the 1970s and 1980s instead of the earlier regimes that rhyme more closely with today. “I actually think the most similar decade is the 50s,” he said, noting that the S&P 500’s average annual return then “was over 19%,” outpacing the 1990s. He described 2024–2025 as an “everything everywhere all at once rally… bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, real estate,” driven by a multi-decade interest-rate cycle and a global “debasement trade” that has finally gone mainstream. “The scariest thing to me right now is that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are saying the same thing that I was a year ago.” Bitcoin And Gold To Dominate The Debasement Era Within that framework, Bitcoin plays the role of digital gold—one of two “neutral reserve assets” poised, in Mattison’s view, to absorb more monetary premium as the fiat system adapts to rising debt loads and geopolitical realignment. He framed the moment as a “gold war, not a cold war,” pointing to the steady build-up of official gold reserves and alternative settlement rails. “People do not understand… this is just getting started,” he said of the bull market in both gold and Bitcoin. While he sees gold as temporarily stretched near-term, he reiterated a long-horizon target in line with arguments from other macro commentators: “Do I think [gold is] going to $20,000 in the next 10 to 15 years? Yes, absolutely.” Bitcoin, he suggested, shares in that secular bid as the programmable counterpart: “Bitcoin I see as digital gold and that’s being accepted.” Mattison’s supercycle call rests heavily on policy architecture. He contends that markets are underpricing the US Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate to maintain “moderate long-term interest rates,” alongside price stability and maximum employment. “Under the statute, the FOMC has three distinct mandates… unemployment, price stability, and making sure that long-term interest rates are moderate,” he said, criticizing the idea that the third leg is secondary. In practice, he expects this to pull policymakers toward yield-curve control (YCC)–style interventions if needed to cap long-tenor yields and stabilize debt service. “There’s no way that they can let interest rates get out of hand,” he argued, adding that the Fed could halt quantitative tightening and significantly expand its balance sheet without necessarily reigniting 2021–2022-style inflation. “The Federal Reserve could… easily take [its balance sheet] to $20 trillion in the next decade without creating massive inflation,” he claimed, emphasizing that money-supply growth and velocity, not the level of public debt per se, drive sustained price pressure. That policy trajectory, in his telling, is inherently supportive of assets with monetary characteristics. He dismissed recurring fears over foreign selling of Treasuries: “When people talk about… China or Japan [selling], there’s no threat from that,” he said, arguing that domestic absorption—by banks, mutual funds, stablecoin balance sheets, or the Fed itself—can readily backstop issuance. He called interest payments “stimulus,” preferring they recycle to US holders rather than abroad. In this setting, he believes index-heavy exposure will underperform active positioning in the new winners: “To me the big alpha is… in gold and bitcoin,” with emerging markets also benefiting from easier global financial conditions if YCC or related measures anchor US duration. Markets Can Go Much Higher For Longer Mattison’s historical lens also shapes his risk calendar. He likens the current mix of post-pandemic fiscal-monetary coordination and geopolitical fault lines to the period spanning World War II, the Marshall Plan, and the Korean War. He expects the rally to broaden beyond mega-cap tech as artificial intelligence redistributes value away from traditional SaaS moats, but he also flags a latent social-cohesion shock—an eventual phase when “not only do you want to reduce, you want to just get out of risk… even gold.” The timing, he said, is not imminent: “I honestly think that’s at least 12 to 24 months away at a minimum and possibly longer.” Until then, he urges investors not to underestimate how far markets—and Bitcoin—can run in a true bubble phase. “If you’ve never lived through [the late 1920s or late 1990s], you don’t understand what the markets can actually do,” he said. “In a bubble environment, which I think we’re heading into, it can go a lot higher and a lot quicker.” For Bitcoin specifically, the implication is straightforward in Mattison’s model: as long as the policy mix trends toward looser effective financial conditions to manage public debt and geopolitical competition channels settlement into neutral assets, BTC accrues monetary premium alongside gold. Near term he anticipates volatility—“very short term [gold is] due for… a rest,” he noted, implying risk for correlated trades—but the secular path, he insists, remains higher. “I’m not saying this time is different,” he said. “I’m actually saying this time is like all the other times”—just not within the living memory of most investors. At press time, BTC traded at $122,451.

Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.58 in the first half of the day occurred at a moment when the MACD was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar in continuation of the bullish trend. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points. The market is preparing for important interviews. Traders will pay special attention to the statements of FOMC members Michael S. Barr and Neel Kashkari. Equally important will be the publication of the September Fed meeting minutes, where for the first time this year a decision was made to cut interest rates. The minutes will likely outline the reasons that pushed the regulator to this decision and will also highlight future prospects. Statements by Barr and Kashkari will also be of particular interest. In the current environment, it is crucial for regulators to strike a balance between supporting the labor market and controlling inflation. Their comments will provide insight into the Fed's readiness for further monetary easing. If a dovish tone is absent, the dollar may continue to rise against the yen, similar to yesterday's trend. As for intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 153.06 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 153.68 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.68, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). Further growth of the pair can be expected in continuation of the morning trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of 152.71, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 153.06 and 153.68. Sell Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 152.71 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.15, where I will close short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may return if the Fed representatives adopt a dovish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to fall from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of 153.06, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 152.71 and 152.15. Chart Notes Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit can be set, or where profits can be manually fixed, since further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit can be set, or where profits can be manually fixed, since further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing intraday trading strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the British Pound The price test of 1.3401 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The release of the Bank of England meeting minutes supported the pound. The language of the press release was extremely cautious: no hints of a reassessment of the current monetary policy and not a single mention of upcoming interest rate cuts. Such a neutral tone, combined with detailed statistics on inflation expectations, created a sense of stability, which was immediately reflected in the currency markets. Ahead, a fairly large number of interviews and speeches from Federal Reserve representatives are expected. Attention should be paid to statements by FOMC members Michael S. Barr and Neel Kashkari. In addition, traders need to review the September FOMC meeting minutes. The rate cut in September signals a shift in the Fed's monetary policy approach. The minutes will undoubtedly reveal the reasons that led the regulator to this decision, as well as outline future prospects. The details of the discussion, the arguments "for" and "against," and economic forecasts will provide valuable insights for traders seeking to understand the trajectory of the U.S. economy and, consequently, the movement of financial assets. As for intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3426 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3454 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3454, I will close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A strong rise in the pound today can only be expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.3399, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3426 and 1.3454. Sell Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3399 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3362, where I will close short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). The pound may fall sharply in the second half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to fall from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.3426, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3399 and 1.3362. Chart Notes Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit can be set, or where profits can be manually fixed, since further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit can be set, or where profits can be manually fixed, since further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take into account overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing intraday trading strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the European Currency The price test of 1.1629 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. A significant decline in German industrial production in August, amounting to 4.3%, triggered a drop in the euro exchange rate at the start of the trading day. Investors, worried about this data pointing to a potential recession in Europe's leading economy, immediately reacted by selling the euro against the U.S. dollar. The decrease in Germany's production output is not just a temporary phenomenon but a serious cause for concern. Germany, as a key driver of European industry, strongly influences the regional economic climate. Moreover, the published figures indicate a fall in manufacturing orders, reflecting business doubts about growth prospects. Companies are cutting investments and operating expenses, fearing a worsening of economic conditions. All this negatively affects the euro exchange rate. In the second half of the day, several interviews and public speeches from Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled. Special attention should be paid to the speeches of FOMC members Michael S. Barr, Neel Kashkari, and Austan D. Goolsbee. The market will closely watch their comments regarding inflation and the future direction of monetary policy. Investors will carefully analyze the Fed speakers' rhetoric, looking for the slightest hints of policy adjustment toward further easing. On one hand, persistent inflation dictates the need to maintain a wait-and-see approach, keeping interest rates unchanged. On the other hand, slowing economic growth and the U.S. government shutdown may force the regulator to shift toward a more dovish stance. It is also crucial for traders to thoroughly analyze the September FOMC meeting minutes. This document will provide insight into how the Fed decided to cut interest rates in September and what factors they relied upon. As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1636 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1674. At 1.1674, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A euro rise today will be possible only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1608, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1636 and 1.1674. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1608 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1564, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1636, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1608 and 1.1564. Chart Notes Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit can be set, or where profits can be manually fixed, since further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit can be set, or where profits can be manually fixed, since further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing intraday trader's strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hyperliquid price has stood in the background on socials and news outlets lately. Is this the top for HYPE or is it accumulating for the next leg up? Technical analysis reveals key insights when it comes to price and risk. Investors might be a little on edge, as competition by Aster has been fierce lately. But which project will outlast? One valid take on HYPE’s price is this ascending channel / consolidation. I would move the upper boundary to match all 3 higher highs, essentially making it a broadening wedge. Either way arthur has explained his take well enough. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Hyperliquid price: Technical Analysis Reveals Key Levels (Source – Tradingview, HYPEUSD) Let us begin today’s analysis with the Weekly timeframe chart. Hyperliquid is still a rather new project. Performed surprisingly well and still makes $10m-$20m revenue each week (see more in DeFi Llama). Considering it’s has a team of 4 people, these are big numbers! For this chart, we don’t have too much price history, though there is this $30-$32 level from the previous high. That is the HTF support. RSI shows a hidden bearish divergence! DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 (Source – Tradingview, HYPEUSD) Next to look at is the 1D chart for Hyperliquid price. We have more price history to unpack here. RSI has been reset and is sitting in the bottom half of its range. Price is right around the MA100, recently broken below MA50. Looking backwards, MA50 hasn’t really been respected from August onwards. The MA’s order is still bullish, as well as market structure. We have a clear ascending support level. And with the blue line potentially showing an MSB. DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 HYPE: Next Moves To Expect (Source – Tradingview, HYPEUSD) Last, we will look at the 4H chart and see what we can expect in the near future. The blue line potentially indicating an MSB on the 1D is creeping in from the left side on this timeframe. We can see that price bounced off of support with two bullish engulfing candles, indicating strength. Also, on this LTF there is an MSB followed by a pair of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Bulls would like to see the MAs and $57-$59 order block reclaimed, and support around $40 to hold. That’s it for today. Stay safe out there! DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Update Hyperliquid Stands Still In The $40s: Is This A Quiet Accumulation Or A Distribution? Hyperliquid Price is ranging in the $40-$55 range for more than a month. RSI on 1W has hidden bearish divergence Bearish Orderblock between $57-$59 needs to be broken A break on either side of the channel can be decisive The post Hyperliquid Stands Still In The $40s: Is This A Quiet Accumulation Or A Distribution? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML) has signed a letter of intent (LoI) with US-based rare earth processor REalloys for a ten-year offtake agreement covering 15% of production from its Tanbreez rare earth project in southern Greenland. This deal follows an August agreement with Ucore Rare Metals for 10% of Tanbreez’s output, bringing total committed offtake to 25% of expected production. REalloys — which operates a full-cycle rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing facility in Ohio and is preparing to list on Nasdaq — also owns the Hoidas Lake rare earth project in Saskatchewan. “The Tanbreez project presents a remarkable opportunity for REalloys, given its rich, long-life deposits of heavy rare earth elements — vital to the defense industrial base of the United States and our allied nations,” said REalloys CEO Lipi Mainheim. “REalloys and Critical Metals share a common commitment to reducing China’s dominance in the global rare earth supply chain.” The companies plan to finalize definitive agreements following due diligence, negotiation of final commercial terms, and regulatory approvals. Shares of Critical Metals jumped 15% by midday in New York, giving the company a market capitalization of $1.27 billion. Located in southern Greenland with year-round deep-water access to the North Atlantic, Tanbreez is one of the world’s largest heavy and medium rare earth deposits. Critical Metals also owns the Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria, which it describes as Europe’s first fully permitted lithium mine. Earlier this month, US officials denied reports that Washington was considering an equity investment in Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML). Reuters had reported that the government held discussions with the company while negotiating a 5% stake purchase in Lithium Americas (TSX, NYSE: LAC), developer of the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada. Following those reports and Critical Metals’ announcement of a new institutional investor, CRML shares surged during after-hours trading and into Monday’s session.

Silver surged to a new all-time high on Wednesday, as the metal rode the coattails of the record-setting rally seen recently in gold. Spot silver climbed as much as 3.4% to $49.55 per ounce, surpassing its record high from 1980. Silver futures for December delivery also gained 3.2% to $49.20 per ounce in New York. Click on chart for live prices. The precious metal is benefiting from the same factors driving gold to successive records in recent sessions, namely mounting political and economic uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and hefty inflows into exchange-traded funds. “The silver market continues to tighten, with rising lease rates, as Comex stocks scale record highs and amid India’s seasonal demand strength. The recent rally has been supported by hefty ETP inflows,” Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, said in a Reuters note. With precious metals continuing to perform, HSBC has raised its average silver price forecasts for 2025 to $38.56 per ounce and for 2026 to $44.50, citing renewed investor demand and anticipated volatile trading. Year to date, silver has seen its value rise by more than 65%, even surpassing that of gold. (With files from Reuters) Sponsored: Take advantage of silver’s timeless value — explore silver bullion options with Sprott Money.