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Bitcoin is trading around 123,616, bouncing within the bullish trend channel formed on September 26. Bitcoin could continue rising in the coming hours, reaching 8/8 Murray around $125,000 and could even surpass its high and reach +1/8 Murray around 128,125. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the 21SMA at 122,243, we could expect a trend reversal, and it could reach 6/8 Murray at 118,750. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart has reached the overbought zone. We believe that Bitcoin below the psychological level of $125,000 could undergo a strong technical correction in the coming days and reach 5/8 Murray around 115,316. Our outlook for Bitcoin is positive, so we will look for buying opportunities above 122,240 in the coming hours. Any pullback and any price above this level will be seen as a signal to continue buying. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a positive bias around 1.1727. The euro is now above the 8/8 Murray, above the 21SMA, and within an uptrend channel formed on September 25. If the euro consolidates above 1.1700 in the coming hours, we could expect it to close the gap it left around 1.1735 and could even continue rising to reach the top of the uptrend channel around 1.1805. If the uptrend continues, we could expect the EUR/USD pair to reach the +8/8 Murray around 1.1840. On the other hand, if the euro consolidates below 1.1717 and below 8/8 Murray, we can expect a sharp breakout of the uptrend channel, and the price could reach 7/8 Murray around 1.1596. The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we believe that as the euro price consolidates above 1.1718 in the coming days, we will look for opportunities to take long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is on the way to new all-time highs, placing the price within a strong upward trend similar to the movement formed on September 11. XAU/USD could continue its rise in the coming hours, reaching 3,963, a level that coincides with the top of the uptrend channel. At current price levels, gold is having a small consolidation. If the price remains above +1/8 Murray in the coming days, we could expect a strong upward acceleration that could push the instrument up to 3,950 and even to the psychological level of $4,000. Conversely, if the gold price falls below the key level of 3,906, we believe it could reach the 21SMA around 3,872 or the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,860. If gold undergoes a technical correction in the coming hours, it will be seen as an opportunity to resume long positions, with targets at 3,930 and 3,963. A sharp break of the uptrend channel in the consolidation below 3,870 could change the outlook for gold, and we could expect it to reach the key 8/8 Murray support around 3,750 in the short term. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Solana found support near the $205 zone. SOL price is now consolidating gains above $220 and might soon aim for more gains above $232. SOL price started a fresh increase above $215 and $220 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $225 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $227 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another increase if the bulls clear $235 and $242. Solana Price Aims Higher Solana price remained supported above the $215 pivot level and extended gains, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $220 and $225 resistance levels. The price even spiked above $235 before there was a pullback. The price dipped below $232 and tested $228. It is again rising and trading near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $237 swing high to the $227 low. Solana is now trading above $225 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $227 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. If there are more gains, the price could face resistance near the $234 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $237 swing high to the $227 low. The next major resistance is near the $238 level. The main resistance could be $242. A successful close above the $242 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $250. Any more gains might send the price toward the $255 level. Another Drop In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $237 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $227 zone and the trend line. The first major support is near the $225 level. A break below the $225 level might send the price toward the $220 support zone. If there is a close below the $220 support, the price could decline toward the $212 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $225 and $220. Major Resistance Levels – $237 and $242.

Macroeconomic Data Overview: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Only two data points are worth noting: Retail Sales in the Eurozone and Construction PMI in the United Kingdom. However, both fall far short of being top-tier releases. Consequently, we do not expect any strong or lasting market reactions to these reports. At the same time, the U.S. dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to resume its decline. Fundamental Events Overview: There will be several noteworthy events on Monday. In the United Kingdom, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. Bailey rarely appears in the public spotlight, so while any shift in BoE policy or tone is not expected, his comments could nonetheless be significant. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will also give a speech. However, expectations here are low. She spoke three times last week and will speak another three times this week. No meaningful or market-moving information came from her last week, so the same is expected this time. At this point, the ECB is unlikely to change its monetary policy outlook, as current inflation levels do not justify further rate cuts or hikes. Key TakeawaysOn the first trading day of the week, both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs are likely to move with low volatility—that means trends are less likely to develop. GBP/USD has completed its recent downtrend. EUR/USD likely did the same. For EUR/USD, price action should be monitored around the 1.1745–1.1754 zone. For GBP/USD, key trading zones are located between 1.3466 and 1.3475, and between 1.3413 and 1.3421. Core Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The shorter the formation time, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals are triggered near a certain level, it is recommended to ignore further signals from that level.In a flat market, any currency pair may produce multiple false signals, or none at all. It's best to quit trading at the first signs of flat movement.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed afterward.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used in conditions of strong volatility and when accompanied by a trend confirmed with a trendline or channel.If two levels are positioned too closely (5–20 pips apart), treat the entire area as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 15-20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven to protect against reversals.Chart Elements Explained:Support and resistance levels – Target zones for opening buy/sell positions. Take Profit levels can be set near these.Red lines – Trendlines or channels indicating the current market trend and preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line used as an auxiliary signal source.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect price movement. Caution is advised when trading during such events, or consider exiting the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals.Note for Beginner Traders: Not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term success in Forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review1H Chart – GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited a slight bullish movement that didn't affect the overall technical picture. Since breaking the downward trendline, the upward movement has yet to truly begin. As with the euro, this kind of behavior raises many questions. Just last week, the U.S. government experienced a shutdown (a major event clearly weighing on the economy), the only labor market report (ADP) came in extremely weak, and the ISM business activity indices signaled economic slowdown. So, the market currently has plenty of reasons to sell the U.S. dollar—yet it's not happening. Mid-term, GBP still maintains a bullish bias, but upward movement has stalled in recent months. Although the pound isn't fully utilizing its available growth drivers, we still do not believe in the long-term strength of the dollar. However, on the 5-minute chart, global trends are less important—especially under current conditions, where no strong persistent trend exists. 5M Chart – GBP/USD On Friday's 5-minute chart, the price bounced from the 1.3466–1.3475 zone during the European session but managed only a 20-pip drop. That was enough to trigger a Stop Loss to breakeven, and the trade closed with zero loss. By evening, the price had returned to the same 1.3466–1.3475 area, but no new signal had formed. Due to low volatility, no major profit was feasible either way. How to Trade on MondayOn the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has completed the formation of a downtrend. As we mentioned earlier, there are no solid reasons for sustainable USD growth, so we expect the mid-term movement to remain bullish. Currently, however, the market appears to be in a state of stagnation or hibernation, resulting in minimal movement. Trading can still be based on technical signals from lower timeframes, even though overall volatility remains subdued. On Monday, GBP/USD may continue to trade within the 1.3413–1.3421 and 1.3466–1.3475 zones. Bounces from either zone can act as trade entries with the opposing zone as a target. A confirmed breakout beyond either range opens the possibility of renewing the broader trend. Key Levels to Trade (5M TF): 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. On Monday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak, but the U.S. economic calendar is completely empty. Therefore, we expect a classic "slow Monday" in the market. Core Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The shorter the formation time, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals are triggered near a certain level, it is recommended to ignore further signals from that level.In a flat market, any currency pair may produce multiple false signals, or none at all. It's best to quit trading at the first signs of flat movement.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed afterward.On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used in conditions of strong volatility and when accompanied by a trend confirmed with a trendline or channel.If two levels are positioned too closely (5–20 pips apart), treat the entire area as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven to protect against reversals.Chart Elements Explained:Support and resistance levels – Target zones for opening buy/sell positions. Take Profit levels can be set near these.Red lines – Trendlines or channels indicating the current market trend and preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line used as an auxiliary signal source.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect price movement. Caution is advised when trading during such events, or consider exiting the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals.Note for Beginner Traders: Not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term success in Forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Recap:1H Chart – EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair once again traded in a "neither fish nor fowl" manner. Volatility remained minimal, as it had been throughout the previous week. We reiterate our earlier observation: it was a very strange week. Even without the missing Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports, there were plenty of fundamental and macroeconomic events—and many of them were significant. What explains the lack of volatility and overall reluctance to trade remains unclear. Even Friday's ISM Services PMI, which came in well below forecasts, could have easily triggered a 50–60 pip drop in the dollar. From a technical perspective, the upward trend is still considered over, as the trendline was broken. However, a new uptrend still hasn't truly begun—even though multiple bearish factors for the dollar emerged just last week. 5M Chart – EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, the price spent the entire day trying to bounce off the 1.1745–1.1754 area—but failed to do so. Technically, novice traders could have entered short positions, but by the U.S. session, it had already become clear that no significant movements would develop. How to Trade on MondayOn the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair broke the trendline several times, which technically switches the trend to bullish. Fundamentally and macroeconomically, the outlook for the U.S. dollar remains poor; therefore, we don't expect any significant upward movement in the greenback. As before, we believe that any strength in the dollar will be limited to technical corrections—like the one currently unfolding. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair is likely to trade again in the vicinity of the 1.1745–1.1754 area. A bounce from this zone provides an opportunity for fresh short positions with a target of 1.1666. A confirmed breakout above this area will offer a logical entry point for long positions, targeting 1.1808. On the 5-minute chart, the following levels should be observed: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver another speech, and retail sales data will be released in the eurozone. Recently, Lagarde has spoken frequently; she is scheduled to speak three times this week. In most cases, her remarks offer little new market-moving information. Core Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The shorter the formation time, the stronger the signal. If two or more false signals are triggered near a certain level, it is recommended to ignore further signals from that level. In a flat market, any currency pair may produce multiple false signals, or none at all. It's best to quit trading at the first signs of flat movement.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed afterward. On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used in conditions of strong volatility and when accompanied by a trend confirmed with a trendline or channel. If two levels are positioned too closely (5–20 pips apart), treat the entire area as a single support or resistance zone. Once a trade moves 15 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven to protect against reversals.Chart Elements Explained:Support and resistance levels – Target zones for opening buy/sell positions. Take Profit levels can be set near these.Red lines – Trendlines or channels indicating the current market trend and preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line used as an auxiliary signal source.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect price movement. Caution is advised when trading during such events, or consider exiting the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals.Note for Beginner Traders: Not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term success in Forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price extended gains above $3.00 and $3.050 before correcting gains. The price is now consolidating gains and facing hurdles near the $3.050 level. XRP price is slowly moving higher above the $2.920 support zone. The price is now trading below $3.00 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at $3.050 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $3.050. XRP Price Faces Resistance XRP price started a recovery wave after it found support above $2.80 and $2.820, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.920 and $2.950 resistance levels. The price even climbed above $3.00 before the bears appeared. A high was formed at $3.098 and the price corrected some gains to test $2.950. It is now consolidating near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $3.070 swing high to the $2.950 low. The price is now trading below $3.050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $3.00 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $3.070 swing high to the $2.950 low. The first major resistance is near the $3.050 level. There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance at $3.050 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. A clear move above the $3.050 resistance might send the price toward the $3.080 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.120 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.150. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $3.00 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.950 level. The next major support is near the $2.920 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.920 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.850. The next major support sits near the $2.80 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $2.720. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.950 and $2.920. Major Resistance Levels – $3.00 and $3.050.

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair posted a slight increase, though volatility remained nearly minimal. The U.S. was expected to release the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data that day, but it had become clear earlier in the week that those reports wouldn't be published due to the ongoing government shutdown, which forced many federal agencies into unpaid leave. However, the ISM Services PMI was released on Friday, and it sharply disappointed, following the same pattern seen earlier with the Manufacturing PMI. Thus, the dollar had significant reasons to fall, yet once again it barely moved, despite ample justification for a decline. As we have stated multiple times, the recent market behavior in the pair is fundamentally illogical. This is most evident on the daily timeframe: initially, a technical correction followed a strong upward trend, which made sense. But now, for nearly two months, the market has barely moved—an extended flat. Fundamentally, the backdrop for the dollar hasn't only failed to improve—it has deteriorated weekly. To recap: the U.S. labor market has weakened, business activity indexes have dropped, inflation is rising, the Federal Reserve remains on a dovish path, Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on sectors including film, pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture, and a government shutdown has begun. If the pound were trading above $1.40, everything would make perfect sense. It's also worth noting: there's no need to search for a black cat in a dark room—especially when it isn't there. Many analysts scramble to explain the dollar's apparent resilience by citing so-called "bullish" factors, while overlooking dozens of bearish ones. For example, last week, some Fed officials stated their support only for moderate rate cuts. But what's so unexpected—or bullish—about that? Let us remind you: Fed officials have never supported aggressive rate cuts, not even when the labor market showed obvious signs of strain caused by the policies of Trump. Earlier this year, Chairman Powell and colleagues mentioned a maximum of two cuts in 2025. Now, Powell is floating the possibility of three. This signals a more dovish—not hawkish—stance. The fact that most FOMC members don't support aggressive easing doesn't mean they don't support easing at all. For the dollar, any level of easing from the Fed is inherently bearish—especially since the ECB has finished its own rate-cutting cycle, and the Bank of England is on a prolonged pause due to high inflation. Thus, even two rate cuts by year's end reflect a dovish Fed outlook that should further pressure the greenback. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 75 pips—considered "average" for this pair. On Monday, October 6, we expect the price to remain within the 1.3401–1.3551 range. The higher linear regression channel is pointed upwards, indicating a clear bullish trend. Meanwhile, the CCI indicator dipped into oversold territory, signaling a potential resumption of the uptrend. Key Support Levels:S1: 1.3428S2: 1.3367S3: 1.3306Key Resistance Levels:R1: 1.3489R2: 1.3550R3: 1.3611Trading RecommendationsGBP/USD is currently correcting, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Trump's policies continue to pressure the dollar, so we don't expect sustainable growth from the U.S. currency. Thus, long positions remain preferred, targeting 1.3672 and 1.3733, as long as the pair trades above the moving average. If the price drops below the moving average, short-term shorts may be considered with targets at 1.3401 and 1.3367 based on technical signals alone. From time to time, the dollar experiences corrective bounces (as is the case now), but for an actual trend reversal, it would require strong, positive triggers, such as the end of the trade war or other global tailwinds. Chart Legend:Linear Regression Channels help define the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The Moving Average (20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term direction and trade bias.Murray Levels serve as key support/resistance targets for trend continuation or corrections.Volatility Levels (red lines) indicate the likely price range for the trading day based on recent volatility.The CCI Indicator entering overbought (above +250) or oversold (below -250) territory signals potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively calm on Friday. Volatility remained minimal. In fact, the only relatively strong movement of the entire past week occurred on Thursday—ironically, the day with virtually no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events. Only the Eurozone unemployment rate, which unexpectedly climbed to 6.3%, had the theoretical potential to trigger a reaction. However, other days featured far more important data, even excluding the unreleased Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures. Thus, the first conclusion is that last week's price movement had nothing to do with logic. As we've stated many times before, there's no point in trying to rationalize illogical price movement. When the market stalls despite a strong fundamental and macro backdrop, it means that market makers do not wish to trade. Only they can explain why. Our job is to acknowledge the facts: there were virtually no movements in the market, and fundamental data had no bearing on it. Nor can the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. be entirely blamed. Historically, shutdowns never bode well for the U.S. economy, as confirmed by all previous occurrences. It is reasonable to expect the dollar to come under pressure as a result. And when you factor in the weak labor and business activity data, it becomes clear that the dollar should've experienced significant losses last week. Still, we don't believe the market ignored the dollar due to another bout of U.S. economic uncertainty. In fact, new layers of uncertainty are typically seen as good reasons to sell a currency. Above, we listed only the most recent catalysts for dollar weakness. Let's not forget that, in the coming years, the Federal Reserve may be the only central bank actively cutting rates. Donald Trump may continue imposing tariffs arbitrarily on other countries and entire sectors. And central banks globally have already begun reducing their dollar reserves. In short, the dollar has little to no reason to grow. A government shutdown, moreover, is a very clear event, which should have triggered a dollar sell-off. As such, last week's price behavior was completely illogical. And more accurately, it was almost nonexistent. We expect that all ignored factors will eventually be priced in, once the market breaks out of its current coma. Currently, movement remains stagnant, particularly on the lower timeframes. We advise against shorting EUR/USD, even if the price is moving lower. Of course, every trader has their own perspective and approach, and nothing is impossible in the markets. However, it's very difficult to justify buying the U.S. dollar when it has no fundamental support whatsoever. The average volatility for EUR/USD over the last five trading days as of October 6 is 57 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1684 and 1.1798 on Monday. The higher linear regression channel continues to point upward, indicating the uptrend is intact. The CCI indicator previously entered overbought territory, triggering the latest downward correction. Support Levels:S1: 1.1719S2: 1.1658S3: 1.1597Resistance Levels:R1: 1.1780R2: 1.1841R3: 1.1902Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD continues to correct; however, the overall trend on higher timeframes remains bullish. The American dollar is still under intense pressure from Donald Trump's policies, and he shows no signs of slowing down. The dollar rallied for about a month, but now seems poised for a renewed wave of long-term decline. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1684 and 1.1658 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain valid with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902 in continuation of the prevailing uptrend. Chart Legend:Linear Regression Channels help define the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The Moving Average (20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term direction and trade bias.Murray Levels serve as key support/resistance targets for trend continuation or corrections.Volatility Levels (red lines) indicate the likely price range for the trading day based on recent volatility.The CCI Indicator entering overbought (above +250) or oversold (below -250) territory signals potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Analysis – 5M Chart On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward movement in line with the new uptrend that formed after the last trendline break. However, as with the euro, most of the past week was spent in a flat phase. While less pronounced than in EUR/USD, the pound also failed to break below the critical line—or above the Senkou Span B line, for that matter. Thus, we're still in a flat market. There were no significant events in the UK on Friday. The only noteworthy release was the U.S. ISM Services PMI, which was processed by the market weakly and unconvincingly. On Thursday, for reasons unclear, the pound plummeted despite having multiple fundamental reasons to fall earlier in the week. But for now, the market remains sideways, and there's nothing that can be done about it. On the 5-minute chart, a fairly good buy signal was formed on Friday. At the start of the European trading session, the price rebounded from the critical line and then moved steadily upward for the remainder of the day. Traders who opened long positions on this signal could have closed with a manual profit of about 30 pips by the end of the session. While the profit wasn't huge, the day's overall volatility was low. COT Report COT reports for the British pound indicate that commercial trader sentiment has been shifting constantly in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and generally stay close to the zero mark. That is the case again now, suggesting that buy and sell positions are almost perfectly balanced. The dollar continues to weaken mainly due to Donald Trump's policies, so demand for the pound by market makers is not particularly important at this point. The ongoing trade war is expected to continue in one form or another. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates throughout the year, which reduces overall demand for the dollar. According to the latest report, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 new BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts, increasing their net position by 4,600 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound experienced a significant rise, mainly due to U.S. political factors. When those factors dissipate, the dollar may recover—but no one knows when that will happen. The pace of net position changes in the pound is less important than the fact that the dollar's net position keeps falling—usually at a sharper rate. GBP/USD Analysis – 1H Chart On the hourly chart, GBP/USD maintains a new uptrend. The trendline was broken to the upside, so traders have reason to expect the pair to continue rising. The dollar still lacks a fundamental bullish foundation, so we anticipate a continuation of the pair's 2025 uptrend in almost any scenario. Last week, the pair rebounded from the crucial Senkou Span B line, triggering a correction. However, the price did not break below the critical line. Key Trading Levels for October 6: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Ichimoku indicator lines: Senkou Span B: 1.3524 and Kijun-sen: 1.3432. The stop loss should be set to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the intended direction. The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day and should be monitored when identifying signals. On Monday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech. Although this is a potentially significant event, not all central bank speeches focus on monetary policy. No major events are scheduled in the U.S. for Monday. Trading Recommendations: Today, traders may expect the uptrend to continue. The price has bounced from the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, supporting the case for continued upward movement—at least to the Senkou Span B line. However, the macroeconomic backdrop today is neutral, and the pair remains range-bound overall. Chart Clarifications:Support/Resistance levels – thick red lines, price may reverse around these. They are not trading signals.Kijun-sen & Senkou Span B – Ichimoku lines, transferred to the 1H chart from the 4H timeframe. Strong reference lines.High/Low levels – thin red lines marking previous reversal zones. They are used as trade signals.Yellow lines – trendlines, channels, and various technical patterns.Indicator 1 on COT charts – net position size of each trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Analysis – 5M Chart The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no significant movement on Friday. Even on the hourly time frame, it is clearly visible that the pair remained in a total flat throughout the past week. Only once did the price attempt to break out of the range between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—on Thursday, when the unemployment rate in the Eurozone unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. All other, far more important, data was either ignored by the market or responded to very weakly. And that's a shame. There was plenty to pay attention to last week—starting with the U.S. government shutdown. It's hard to believe such a major event, which doesn't happen every year, wouldn't be priced in. ISM business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors came in weak, although not disastrous. The ADP employment report posted a very weak result. In short, the dollar had plenty of reasons to fall over the last five trading days. From a technical perspective, a new upward trend has started since the descending trendline was broken. However, the market remains in a flat range, and until the Senkou Span B line is broken, we will not see the euro strengthening. In our view, the current flat and general pair behavior is completely illogical: the dollar has no reason to grow, while the euro has no fundamental foundation to remain flat or decline. On Friday, two decent trading signals were formed within the 5-minute timeframe. First, the pair bounced from/broke through the Kijun-sen line, then retested and rebounded from the 1.1750–1.1760 area. Thus, at least one trade could have been opened, which brought some profit. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. As shown in the previous illustration, the net position of non-commercial traders has long remained "bullish," while the bears briefly gained dominance at the end of 2024, only to lose it quickly. Since Donald Trump assumed the presidency for the second time, only the dollar has been falling. We can't definitively say this decline in the dollar will continue, but the current global developments suggest that this is the most likely outcome. We continue to see no fundamental reasons for the euro to strengthen; however, several factors still support further weakening of the dollar. The global downtrend remains intact—but does it really matter where price has moved in the past 17 years? Only after Trump ends his trade wars could the dollar potentially resume growth. However, recent developments suggest trade tensions will persist in one form or another. The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is another major factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The positioning of the red and blue lines on the indicator continues to point to a sustained bullish trend. During the latest reporting week, long positions held by the "Non-commercial" category declined by 800, while short positions increased by 2,600. As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts for the week. EUR/USD Analysis – 1H Chart On the hourly chart, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, which cannot be considered fully completed since the price remains sideways and has not overcome the 1.1750–1.1760 area and the Senkou Span B line. However, we still see no justification for a rebound in the dollar. The daily timeframe shows the uptrend remains intact. Key Trading Levels for October 6: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. Senkou Span B line (1.1782), Kijun-sen line (1.1715). Note: The Ichimoku indicator lines fluctuate throughout the day and should be monitored to adjust signals accordingly. Don't forget to place a Stop Loss to breakeven after 15 pips in the right direction—this prevents potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak on Monday, but no significant changes in policy tone are expected. She may comment on the latest inflation data. Also, eurozone retail sales will be released, but the report is not of high importance. There will be no significant data from the U.S. on Monday. Trading Recommendations: On Monday, a recovery attempt by the euro could resume. Traders need to overcome the 1.1750–1.1760 region and the Senkou Span B line to confirm that the downtrend has ended and a new uptrend has begun. A bounce from this area previously served as a good opportunity for short positions targeting 1.1666, but we don't believe in continued dollar strength. Chart Clarifications: Support/Resistance levels – thick red lines, price may reverse around these. They are not trading signals.Kijun-sen & Senkou Span B – Ichimoku lines, transferred to the 1H chart from the 4H timeframe. Strong reference lines.High/Low levels – thin red lines marking previous reversal zones. They are used as trade signals.Yellow lines – trendlines, channels, and various technical patterns.Indicator 1 on COT charts – net position size of each trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

At the start of the new trading week, the British pound attempted to break below the MACD line on the daily chart. However, due to a downside gap at the opening, the momentum was insufficient, and the price returned above the MACD line after briefly breaching it. If today's candlestick closes bullish (white), the price may attempt to break through the key resistance level at 1.3525 again. A successful consolidation above this level would extend the upward movement toward the target at 1.3631—marking the high from June 13. On the four-hour chart, the price is poised to break through the MACD line in an effort to close the gap. On a price rise, the Marlin oscillator would return into positive territory, confirming the false nature of the recent dip (indicated by the arrow). As a result, a rapid acceleration in bullish momentum could propel the pair toward the 1.3525 level. A confirmed breakout above it would pave the way toward 1.3631. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week. The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1910. However, this target may not be achieved if U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline. The MACD support line lies at 1.1697. A firm move below it would expose the target at 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator continues to drift horizontally along the zero (neutral) line. On the four-hour chart, the initial resistance is the MACD line at 1.1750. After closing the gap, the price may pause slightly at this resistance level. The Marlin oscillator is re-entering positive territory, confirming that its brief dip into the negative zone was likely false. This supports the outlook for a short-term (several days) upward movement in the EUR/USD exchange rate. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD On the daily chart of USD/CAD, a relatively weak, likely corrective divergence has formed. The price reversed from the target level of 1.3977. The MACD line is approaching the 1.3878 level at a steep upward angle. Likely, the intersection point of the MACD line with the target level will create a point of attraction and, at the same time, a potential reversal point for the next upward movement, as illustrated by the dashed line in the chart. A consolidation of the price below the 1.3878 level and also below the MACD line will deepen the decline to the 1.3810 level—either to create a false breakout or for a medium-term downward move. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning downward from the zero line. This indicates that the price may be able to break through the MACD line at 1.3927. Success at this level will pave the way for achieving the target of 1.3878. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,500. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,620 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,450 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,500 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,490 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,550 and $4,620. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,320 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,450 and $4,500 resistance levels. The price even spiked toward $4,620 and might continue to rise. A high is formed at $4,616 and the price is still stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $4,094 swing low to the $4,616 high. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,490 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,560 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,600 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,620 level. A clear move above the $4,620 resistance might send the price toward the $4,650 resistance. An upside break above the $4,650 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,720 resistance zone or even $4,800 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,620 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,500 level. The first major support sits near the $4,480 zone and the trend line. A clear move below the $4,480 support might push the price toward the $4,440 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,350 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,250. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,480 Major Resistance Level – $4,620

Bitcoin price started a strong increase and traded above $124,000. BTC is now consolidating gains and might aim for a fresh rally in the short term. Bitcoin started a major increase above the $123,500 zone. The price is trading above $122,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $123,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $124,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Rally Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $120,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC settled above the $121,500 resistance zone to start the current move. The bulls were able to pump the price above the $123,500 and $124,000 levels. They even cleared the $125,000 level. A high was formed at $125,670 before there was a minor pullback to $122,250. The price is again rising and trading near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $125,670 swing high to the $122,320 low. Bitcoin is now trading above $123,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $123,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $124,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $124,500 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $125,670 swing high to the $122,320 low. The next resistance could be $125,500. A close above the $125,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $126,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $128,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $130,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $124,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $123,000 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $122,250 level. The next support is now near the $121,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $120,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $118,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $123,000, followed by $122,250. Major Resistance Levels – $124,500 and $125,500.

XRP has defended support at $2.90 and made several attempts to push above $3.10 over the past week. Although XRP bulls have managed to hold above $3, the cryptocurrency hasn’t really followed rallies witnessed by Bitcoin and Ethereum in the past 24 hours. Nonethless, XRP’s price action in the past few days has caused its price chart to print a new technical setup that has previously marked the beginning of significant rallies, and history might repeat itself again. Bullish XRP Technical Signal Reappears Technical analysis of XRP’s 3-day candlestick chart shows that the cryptocurrency is currently repeating a technical signal which has preceded rallies multiple times this cycle. This signal, which was first revealed on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Cryptoinsightsuk, holds importance, as it has preceeded three different price rallies already this cycle. Crypto analyst Cryptoinsightuk shared a post on X highlighting this development, noting that XRP just achieved a great 3-day candle close and a simultaneous bullish cross on the 3-day RSI, which is a setup that historically preceded explosive price movements. The RSI, which tracks momentum shifts in market sentiment, has just crossed above its signal line to form a bullish structure identical to those seen in November 2024, April 2025, and June 2025. Each of these past simultaneous 3-day candle closes and RSI crosses occurred shortly before major XRP rallies. The RSI crossover in November 2024 occurred right before the most remarkable XRP rally since 2017. Notably, this RSI breakout was followed by a sharp 500% price surge, and XRP’s price increased from around $0.5 to over $3 within the weeks that followed. The April 2025 signal similarly preceded another leg up. Although the resulting rally was smaller than the November 2024 rally, XRP went from around $1.9 to $2.7. Then came June 2025, when the same RSI and candle setup appeared for a third time after XRP closed its 3-day candlestick above $2.2. This one proved even more significant than April’s signal, and this eventually culminated in a new all-time high of $3.65. XRP 3D Price Chart. Source: Cryptoinsightuk on X Market Context And What Comes Next The patterns noted above are very important for XRP, and there’s no reason for it not to repeat the same rally. According to Cryptoinsightuk, the reappearance of this exact signal suggests that XRP might once again be gearing up for pop to the upside. Interestingly, the signal also sets a good precedent for the possible approval of Spot XRP ETF applications by the US SEC. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.03. If history repeats itself even on a smaller scale, such as the rally witnessed in April 2025, XRP could climb toward $3.80 in the coming weeks. The most bullish repeat scenario could see the XRP price climb as high as $15. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Why is crypto up today? Crypto is green to start the week as Bitcoin’s fresh all-time high and a softer dollar lift risk appetite, while SPX, FARTCOIN, and AIC headline Sunday’s biggest movers ahead of FOMC. The crypto market gained ground over the past 24 hours, led by meme and AI-linked tokens after Bitcoin set a new record above $125,000 on Sunday. As total crypto capitalization edged higher, SPX6900 (SPX), FARTCOIN, and AI Companions (AIC) stood out among the top performers. Their gains tracked renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a weaker dollar that lifted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eased toward 97.7 late last week, giving risk assets more room to run. The total crypto market value now stands at nearly $4.2 trillion, up slightly on the day. DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 Why Are SPX, FARTCOIN, and AIC Leading Today’s Meme Coin Rally? SPX rose about +11% in the past 24 hours and +55% in the recent week to roughly $1.56, extending its seven-day climb to around 58%. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Trading volume exceeded $100 million across major exchanges, reflecting deeper liquidity since Coinbase added the token in early September. The Solana-based meme coin FARTCOIN rose about 12% in the last 24 hours to nearly $0.70. It’s now among the biggest movers in the AI/meme token group, based on category trackers. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time CoinGecko reports $235M in 24-hour volume, with Coinbase among the busiest exchanges a sign of wide, multi-exchange trading. Meanwhile, AIC jumped 14% over the same period (to about $0.55) and is up ~78% for the week. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time The rally follows the project team’s announcement of a seven-figure buyback and burn initiative, which was heavily promoted on X. The burn event took place last week, with further updates over the weekend. (“Our $1,000,000 buyback and Burn campaign is STILL in motion,” the team posted.) After Bitcoin hit a new high, traders appear to have shifted their focus to meme and AI tokens. These assets often experience sharper moves when there’s liquidity and narrative catalysts, such as exchange listings (in SPX’s case) or supply changes (like AIC’s burns). DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2025 The post Why is Crypto Up Today? SPX, FARTCOIN, and AIC Blast High appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Dark times are ahead for EUR/USD traders—and for all dollar-based pairs. The continued U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of official economic data. For instance, last week was supposed to bring September's Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, but traders had to settle for the ADP report, which does not cover government employees or several other non-agricultural sectors. This week, key inflation metrics (CPI/PPI) are scheduled for release, but they are unlikely to be published unless Congress unexpectedly reopens the government. If the shutdown continues—which remains the most likely scenario—EUR/USD traders will be forced to operate in a state of information vacuum. Or rather, a diet. Even with the shutdown, the upcoming week's economic calendar isn't entirely blank. Let's review the most important events and releases. MondayEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is expected to address the audience. She may comment on the latest reports on inflation growth across the eurozone. In Germany, the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose to 2.4% YoY—the highest since December of the previous year. This is the second consecutive monthly increase. The Harmonised Index (EU Harmonised CPI) also climbed to 2.4%—a peak since February. Eurozone-wide CPI rose to 2.2% YoY, while core CPI remained steady at 2.3%, confirming that inflation is now exceeding the ECB's target. This gives the central bank justification to maintain its policy pause. Lagarde may reinforce this view, offering background support to the euro. Monday will also see the release of the Sentix Investor Confidence Index. Based on investor and analyst surveys, readings above zero reflect optimism, while readings below zero indicate pessimism. The index briefly turned positive in July (for the first time since July of last year), then slipped again to -3.7 in August and -9.2 in September. A mild increase to -7.5 is forecasted for October. The euro may get a boost only if the index unexpectedly turns positive again. Tuesday During the European session, German factory orders data will be released. This figure has declined for three consecutive months, most recently falling to -3.4% YoY. Forecasts suggest August will see a rebound to +1.2%, which could support the euro. Though it is a secondary macro indicator, in the current context it could spark volatility—especially if it surprises to the upside. During the U.S. session, three Federal Reserve officials will speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voting this year), Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (a voting member), and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Bowman is the most dovish among them and has consistently warned about a cooling labor market. Given the weak ADP report, which showed a 32,000 drop in employment for September, she may repeat similar concerns. Wednesday The Fed's minutes from the September meeting will be published. Typically, these documents have a limited market impact, as they are released two weeks after the meeting and often lose relevance. However, this set of minutes may prove different. The updated dot plot revealed a wide range of views: nine officials anticipated a 50-basis-point rate cut by year-end, two forecasted a 25-basis-point cut, and one (Stephen Miran) projected a 75-basis-point cut. Meanwhile, six members expected no change, and one even forecasted a hike. Given this diversity, the Fed minutes could provoke notable movement in EUR/USD if the language appears particularly hawkish or dovish. Also on Wednesday, two more Fed members will speak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (a voting member) and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr (also a voting member). Both have previously taken a cautious stance, emphasizing the risks of inflation. Unless they shift tone—which is unlikely—their comments should provide background support for the dollar. ThursdayThe ECB will release minutes from its September meeting. At that meeting, the central bank firmly signaled that rates would stay at current levels for the foreseeable future. Lagarde stated that disinflation in the eurozone has "concluded," and that current inflation is "where we want it." Other ECB officials have echoed this stance. Last week's CPI data further solidified this position. Therefore, it's unlikely that the ECB minutes will trigger volatility in EUR/USD. However, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak during the U.S. session. His comments could ignite sharp price moves in major dollar pairs. He may address recent macro data—such as ISM indices, which have raised more questions than answers. The manufacturing ISM index rose to 49.1 (still in contraction), while the services ISM unexpectedly dropped to 50.0 (right on the edge of expansion). Powell may also comment on the ADP report, especially if the NFP data is still missing at that time. His speech is unquestionably the central—and most important—scheduled event of the week. FridayAll eyes will turn to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. In this information-starved environment (assuming the shutdown is still in effect), these survey results could cause significant volatility—especially if they diverge substantially from forecasts. The October index is expected at 54.6, down from 55.1 in the previous month. The trend is noteworthy: sentiment has declined for two consecutive months, and if October hits the forecast, it would mark a third straight decline. Equally important are one-year inflation expectations published by the University of Michigan. From July through September, the indicator has ranged between 4.5% and 4.8%. If expectations rise sharply in October (unfortunately, no preliminary forecasts are available), the dollar could gain, provided the sentiment index also surprises to the upside. ConclusionIn summary, the events and releases mentioned are scheduled but depend heavily on whether the U.S. shutdown continues. These will shape market tone, while the shutdown itself will act as persistent background pressure on the greenback. That's the "base case" scenario. However, if Senate Republicans can persuade 8–9 Democrats to support a budget, Congress will reopen the government. That would trigger the release of key employment (NFP) and inflation (CPI/PPI) reports. All other fundamental drivers—except Powell's speech—will take a back seat. From a technical standpoint, the pair on the D1 timeframe is trading between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands indicator, above the Ichimoku Kumo cloud, and between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. This setup still reflects uncertainty. Long positions become relevant only if EUR/USD breaks above resistance at 1.1750 (the middle Bollinger Band on D1). The next bullish targets are 1.1800 (upper boundary of the Kumo on H4) and 1.1850 (upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

This week, the market's attention will once again be focused—if not entirely, then almost entirely—on the U.S. dollar. More precisely, on the U.S. news cycle surrounding the dollar. Let's recall that last week marked the beginning of a government shutdown, and a new vote in the Senate to extend funding deadlines failed. Republicans are still a few votes short of passing the budget for the next fiscal year. As a result, it's currently impossible to say with certainty when the shutdown will end. Meanwhile, the shutdown continues to evolve with increasingly complex political baggage. Democrats still demand that social and healthcare programs not be cut, effectively pushing for a partial repeal of Trump's "one big, beautiful bill." Republicans, on the other hand, insist that the budget must be reduced to allow for increased defense spending. And since the Department of Defense is now being dubbed the "Department of War," those military expenditures are expected to grow—perhaps for future conflicts, such as those with Venezuela. The longer the shutdown lasts, the more nervous market participants will become. Even without the shutdown, the dollar has already been experiencing a "black year." Recent economic data has delivered no support. Just last week, the ADP labor market report posted a negative figure, and ISM business activity indices came in notably weak. Jerome Powell may address the ongoing shutdown and explain how the Fed will make interest rate decisions if the Bureau of Labor Statistics remains furloughed. It's worth noting that the latest unemployment and payroll reports were not released, which are critical inputs for the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Therefore, Powell's speech on Thursday will be the most important event of the week for the U.S. dollar outlook. Wave Structure for EUR/USD:From my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair is still in the process of developing an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains heavily dependent on the news flow related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the current U.S. administration. The trend has potential targets as high as the 1.2500 level (25th figure). We're currently seeing the formation of a corrective wave 4, which may have already completed. The overall bullish wave structure remains valid. Therefore, I'm currently only considering long positions. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Structure for GBP/USD:The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We're still dealing with an impulsive bullish leg, but its internal wave structure has become difficult to interpret. If wave 4 turns into a complex three-wave formation, the structure will normalize—but this would also make wave 4 significantly more prolonged than wave 2. In my view, the key level to monitor is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two unsuccessful breakout attempts at this level indicated the market's readiness to resume buying. My targets for GBP/USD remain above the 1.3800 mark (the 38th figure). Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and are often subject to change.If there is no confidence in market direction, it's better to stay out altogether.You can never be 100% sure of directional moves. Don't forget to use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be (and should be) combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

While the euro has remained in a sideways range over the past week, the British pound has been swinging back and forth for months. These fluctuations don't significantly impact the wave layout, but the structure is becoming more complex and increasingly difficult to use effectively in short-term trading. That said, the upward trend segment continues to develop, and the fundamental backdrop still favors buyers—this much is clear. In the new week, it will be difficult for the pound to find strong support from the domestic UK news cycle. But that's not necessarily a problem. First, even the current set of news may be enough for the market to resume buying activity. Second, the primary intrigue once again centers around the U.S. dollar and its own news flow. This means the market can renew buying at any time (as long as the wave pattern has not turned bearish). Alternatively, it may be American events that push GBP/USD upward. On Monday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak, and the Construction PMI will also be released. However, Bailey also spoke last week and provided no new insights. The Construction PMI is considered significantly less important compared to the Services and Manufacturing PMIs and is unlikely to move the market. On Wednesday, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill is scheduled to speak. But he, too, will likely have little to comment on, as no fresh domestic economic data have been released in recent days. And that's essentially it for the new week. Once again, the market may be left relying on Trump or the broader U.S. news environment. Wave Structure for EUR/USD:From my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair is still in the process of developing an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains heavily dependent on the news flow related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the current U.S. administration. The trend has potential targets as high as the 1.2500 level (25th figure). We're currently seeing the formation of a corrective wave 4, which may have already completed. The overall bullish wave structure remains valid. Therefore, I'm currently only considering long positions. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Structure for GBP/USD:The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We're still dealing with an impulsive bullish leg, but its internal wave structure has become difficult to interpret. If wave 4 turns into a complex three-wave formation, the structure will normalize—but this would also make wave 4 significantly more prolonged than wave 2. In my view, the key level to monitor is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two unsuccessful breakout attempts at this level indicated the market's readiness to resume buying. My targets for GBP/USD remain above the 1.3800 mark (the 38th figure). Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and are often subject to change.If there is no confidence in market direction, it's better to stay out altogether.You can never be 100% sure of directional moves. Don't forget to use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be (and should be) combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The way EUR/USD traded this week deserves a spot in textbooks—under the section "Exceptions to the Rules." Despite wave patterns indicating the construction of an upward trend and a nearly 100% supportive news backdrop for buyers, we didn't see any significant movement throughout the week. While the overall wave layout remains intact, trader sentiment may have been negatively impacted, as there were plenty of reasons to expect greater volatility. As a result, we may see the market continue trading with relatively low activity going into the new week. If last week—despite objectively strong news—failed to trigger a rally, it implies that the market has entered a pause phase, which could be due to any number of reasons. Perhaps investors are spooked by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown. Or maybe market participants are waiting for labor market and unemployment data from the U.S., which are currently unavailable. Ultimately, the reasons aren't as important as knowing when this sideways movement will come to an end. Based on the upcoming economic calendar, the probability of breaking out of the current range next week is quite low. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak almost every day, while Jerome Powell will take over during the weekend. However, it's important to note that Lagarde's frequent speeches have become somewhat routine and rarely offer the market anything new. The same applies to economic data. Even the latest inflation report for September, which could have potentially impacted monetary policy expectations, turned out to be a non-event. Although annual inflation climbed to 2.2%, it's already apparent—Lagarde or not—that such a reading won't justify an additional round of stimulus, nor will it warrant policy tightening. The new week's economic releases include EU retail sales and German industrial output. But given that traders brushed off even more important reports this past week, we shouldn't expect any meaningful market reaction to these upcoming releases either. Wave Structure for EUR/USD: From my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair is still in the process of developing an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains heavily dependent on the news flow related to Trump's decisions and the internal and external policies of the current U.S. administration. The trend has potential targets as high as the 1.2500 level (25th figure). We're currently seeing the formation of a corrective wave 4, which may have already completed. The overall bullish wave structure remains valid. Therefore, I'm currently only considering long positions. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Structure for GBP/USD: The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We're still dealing with an impulsive bullish leg, but its internal wave structure has become difficult to interpret. If wave 4 turns into a complex three-wave formation, the structure will normalize—but this would also make wave 4 significantly more prolonged than wave 2. In my view, the key level to monitor is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two unsuccessful breakout attempts at this level indicated the market's readiness to resume buying. My targets for GBP/USD remain above the 1.3800 mark (the 38th figure). Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and are often subject to change.If there is no confidence in market direction, it's better to stay out altogether.You can never be 100% sure of directional moves. Don't forget to use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be (and should be) combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Based on everything discussed in the previous review, it seems we're witnessing an emerging tug-of-war between Donald Trump and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB wants a weaker franc, and Trump wants a weaker dollar. If Trump perceives the SNB's actions as "interventions aimed at making Swiss goods more competitive abroad," the likely response would be new tariffs or sanctions. This week, the U.S. Treasury and the Swiss National Bank released a joint statement declaring that neither side is engaging in currency manipulation to gain a competitive advantage. Based on this, both parties may maintain a neutral stance moving forward. The SNB could allow the USD/CHF exchange rate to float freely and instead focus on stabilizing the EUR/CHF pair. However, tensions between Bern and Washington are being further exacerbated by Trump's new sector-specific tariffs on pharmaceutical imports. Pharmaceuticals are a critical—and arguably the most important—component of Swiss exports. Now, Swiss medicines sold in the U.S. will cost twice as much due to these new tariffs. It seems inevitable that demand will start to decline after October 1. Given the SNB's decision to reduce exposure to the U.S. dollar, other global central banks may begin transitioning toward alternative reserve and trading currencies. Switzerland's monetary authorities have signaled to the world which direction they intend to take in the coming years, giving other central banks tacit approval to follow suit. Additionally, nearly a quarter of the SNB's reserves are invested in U.S. tech stocks. Should Switzerland begin offloading dollars, significant sell-offs in American equities could follow. For the U.S. stock market, this wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic—other investors are likely to quickly absorb the supply. However, it could lead to increased market volatility in the short term. All things considered, Donald Trump's protectionist policies are clearly influencing how other nations and central banks position themselves. Just a few months ago, I predicted that many consumers, corporations, and even governments might quietly begin rejecting U.S. goods, services, or cooperation with the White House, as long as Trump remains in power. No one likes being dictated to or seeing the rules of fair and competitive trade being bent or broken. Wave Structure for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish trend segment. Wave structure still heavily depends on news flow, Trump's decisions, and geopolitical dynamics within the White House. The current trend phase may extend all the way to the 1.2500 level. At present, a corrective wave 4 appears to be forming—or already completed. The bullish wave structure remains valid, and therefore, I am looking only for buying opportunities in the near term. By year-end, I expect EUR/USD to reach 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Structure for GBP/USD:The wave pattern for GBP/USD has evolved. We are still within an impulsive upward segment, but its internal structure has become unreadable. If wave 4 turns out to be a complex, three-wave formation, it will balance the structure—but it may also be significantly larger and longer than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference level is 1.3341, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two failed breakouts of this level indicated that the market was poised for new buying opportunities. Price targets are still above the 1.3800 level. Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and are often subject to change.If there is no confidence in market direction, it's better to stay out altogether.You can never be 100% sure of directional moves. Don't forget to use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be (and should be) combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dominance of the U.S. dollar is waning. Of course, the process of central banks moving away from holding dollar reserves and governments shifting away from using the dollar for international transactions is a long one—it may take years or even decades. But as the saying goes, the first step has been taken. This week, it was revealed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made a historic pivot from the dollar to the euro. Instead of purchasing U.S. dollars, the SNB is now buying euros to stabilize the Swiss franc's exchange rate. It's important to note that both the SNB and Switzerland as a whole are considered strongholds of financial stability. While SNB policy doesn't carry the global weight of actions taken by the Federal Reserve, its decisions can still influence other central banks and potentially set a broader trend. According to the latest report, in Q2, the Swiss central bank purchased over 5 billion Swiss francs' worth of foreign currencies. Notably, not all of it was allocated to the beloved and traditionally favored U.S. dollar. For the first time since 2020, the SNB's reserves in dollars fell below its holdings in euros: 37% in USD versus 39% in EUR. This sharp pivot is largely attributed to trade policy under Donald Trump. In August of this year, Trump imposed 39% tariffs on all Swiss goods. It's reasonable to conclude that both political and economic motives drove the SNB's shift away from the dollar. Politically, Trump's actions have eroded trust in the dollar, making it less attractive as a reserve currency. Economically, SNB currency interventions aim to weaken the franc to make Swiss exports more competitive abroad. In other words, the SNB likely considers the franc to be overvalued. With Trump's tariffs in play, Swiss exports to the U.S. could grind to a halt completely. Switzerland remains one of the richest and most financially stable countries in the world. Even without Trump's tariffs, Swiss goods are expensive. But with tariffs—combined with a strong franc—they are pricing themselves out of global markets. Thus, the SNB is doing everything in its power to slow down the decline of Swiss exports to the United States. But Donald Trump isn't sitting idle either. He has repeatedly stated that the dollar is too strong and that he's working to weaken it to boost American exports. Technically, currency interventions designed to influence trade are prohibited. If a central bank acts to manipulate its currency's value for trade advantages, other countries may retaliate with similar interventions or impose sanctions. Wave Structure for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish trend segment. Wave structure still heavily depends on news flow, Trump's decisions, and geopolitical dynamics within the White House. The current trend phase may extend all the way to the 1.2500 level. At present, a corrective wave 4 appears to be forming—or already completed. The bullish wave structure remains valid, and therefore, I am looking only for buying opportunities in the near term. By year-end, I expect EUR/USD to reach 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Structure for GBP/USD:The wave pattern for GBP/USD has evolved. We are still within an impulsive upward segment, but its internal structure has become unreadable. If wave 4 turns out to be a complex, three-wave formation, it will balance the structure—but it may also be significantly larger and longer than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference level is 1.3341, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two failed breakouts of this level indicated that the market was poised for new buying opportunities. Price targets are still above the 1.3800 level. Core Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and are often subject to change.If there is no confidence in market direction, it's better to stay out altogether.You can never be 100% sure of directional moves. Don't forget to use stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be (and should be) combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com