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Ethereum has hit two major milestones that speak volumes about how committed its community has become. Over 35 million ETH are now locked in staking contracts, a new all-time high, and 22.8 million ETH are being held by wallets that have shown no signs of selling. Both figures show a maturing network where short-term price swings are no longer the only story. This Ethereum staking all-time high also means there’s less ETH available to trade, which could affect the price later. Nearly 30 Percent of ETH Supply Is Now Locked According to CryptoQuant data, more than 500,000 ETH were deposited into staking in just the first half of June. That pushed the total staked amount to over 35 million ETH, which accounts for nearly 29 percent of the total circulating supply. A large share of this activity is being driven by whales. These are wallets that hold between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH. On average, they’ve been adding hundreds of thousands of ETH per day, and on June 12 alone, whale activity pushed deposits to over 870,000 ETH. Staking is also heavily concentrated on platforms like Lido, which manages around a quarter of all staked ETH. Coinbase and Binance are next in line, each with roughly 7.5 percent. This kind of concentration raises some questions about decentralization, but it also shows that big players are actively participating. Regulatory Clarity Is Fueling Confidence One of the reasons staking has gained momentum recently is a more predictable regulatory landscape. The SEC has clarified that some centralized staking offerings may not qualify as securities, which has eased legal concerns that previously held institutions back. While the US still does not have a staking-focused ETF on the market, this regulatory shift has already encouraged more investors to get involved. For many, it removed the uncertainty around whether staking through an exchange could result in future legal issues. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Price Is Quiet, But That Might Not Last Despite the uptick in staking and long-term holding, ETH’s price has been under pressure. It recently fell to around 2,534 dollars after volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions. That’s a drop of over 9 percent for the week, although it remains up about 6.5 percent for the past month. EthereumPriceMarket CapETH$291.70B24h7d30d1yAll time Some analysts are watching for a golden cross, which happens when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average. This technical pattern has been a signal of strong price movement in the past. In late 2024, a similar setup saw ETH climb from 3,000 to 4,000 dollars within weeks. Given how much ETH is now off the market, even a small bump in demand could move prices more quickly than usual. Long-Term Holders Aren’t Letting Go The record number of ETH held long-term suggests that many investors are not in a rush to sell. These wallets have stayed inactive for years, showing a strong belief in the asset’s future. Several factors help explain this. Proof-of-stake yields remain steady, often between 4 and 6 percent annually. At the same time, protocols like EigenLayer have introduced new ways to stake ETH and earn extra rewards. This gives holders more options to earn passively without giving up control. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 What Comes Next With almost a third of the ETH supply locked in staking and even more sitting idle in long-term wallets, the amount of ETH actually available for trading is shrinking fast. That creates the potential for bigger price swings down the line if demand picks up. The next things to keep an eye on include whether the golden cross actually plays out, any movement from the SEC toward approving a staking ETF, and what whales continue to do with their ETH. Ethereum may not be making headlines for price right now, but what is happening under the surface could set the tone for the rest of the year. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Over 35 million ETH are now locked in staking contracts, representing nearly 30% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH are driving much of the new staking activity, with whales depositing hundreds of thousands of ETH per day. Recent regulatory clarity in the U.S. has reduced concerns around staking services, encouraging more institutional and retail participation. Despite increased staking, ETH’s price dipped 9% this week, though technical indicators hint at a possible rebound if demand picks up. A record number of long-term wallets remain inactive, showing that a large portion of ETH holders continue to believe in Ethereum’s future. The post Ethereum Locks In 35 Million ETH as Staking Hits All-Time High appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Amid the market performance, BNB is attempting to reclaim the $650 level. Some analysts believe that a breakout toward the $700 barrier might occur next, which could lead to a bigger move to new highs. BNB Breakout To Retest $700 On Friday, BNB dropped to the $640 support after failing to hold the mid-zone of its local price range. The cryptocurrency has been trading within the $630-$690 price range following its reclaim of the $600 barrier last month. During the May breakout, BNB neared the crucial $700 resistance level, hitting a four-month high of $697. This key level propelled the altcoin’s price toward its $788 all-time high (ATH) after being broken in late 2024 and was lost during the early 2025 pullbacks. Now, the cryptocurrency is eyeing a reclaim of this area as support to continue its price recovery. Analyst Carl Runefelt from The Moon Show noted that BNB displays a one-month descending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe, with price compressing between the support and resistance levels. According to the chart, the formation’s support sits around the $635 level, while the descending resistance sits around the $650 area. To Runefelt, a bullish breakout from this pattern could propel the token 10% toward the $700 resistance. Notably, reclaiming and confirming this key area as support could also send BNB’s price toward another crucial horizontal level. Analyst Crypto Batman recently highlighted that BNB is forming a multi-month ascending triangle, “holding strong” near the ascending trendline after continuing to bounce from the $635-$640 support zone. To the market watcher, “Even with market uncertainty, BNB structure is clean after respecting the trendline and bouncing off major support, now eyeing a breakout above $700,” which could be part of a bigger move toward the $800 level. Is A Move To $800 Coming? Crypto Batman also noted that the cryptocurrency could be following the same price action as last year. He asserted that the altcoin’s price “loves testing key zones before liftoff,” adding that it is displaying the same base form as it did in Q3 2024. Last year, the token formed a three-month base around the $460-$470 area, which led to an “explosive” run over the next few months. This year, BNB formed a similar base near the $550 level, and it’s “showing strength again.” To the analyst, “If the pattern repeats, then patience will give us profits.” Additionally, he pointed out that despite the early April retraces, BNB held its macro range, trading above the range lows and multi-time-tested support. The cryptocurrency is now consolidating near the mid-zone, which could propel the price to a retest of the macro range highs around the $729 mark. He explained that “If we see a breakout above the $729 resistance, it could open the path toward a 50% move to the upside.” The analyst affirmed that BNB’s structure remains bullish as long as the cryptocurrency holds the $490-$500 levels, adding that the $600 mark is also a strong support. As of this writing, BNB is trading at $641, a 2.9% decline in the weekly timeframe.

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has returned back to the neutral territory, a sign that investors are losing optimism. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Reset Back To Neutral The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among the traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index makes use of the data of these five factors in order to determine the trader mentality: trading volume, market cap dominance, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. The indicator represents the calculated sentiment as a score lying between zero and hundred. Values above the 54 mark correspond to the dominance of greed in the market, while those below 46 to presence of fear among the investors. All values lying between these cutoffs correlate to a net neutral sentiment. Now, here is how the mood in the Bitcoin market is like right now according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 54 at the moment, which suggests the investors hold a neutral sentiment, although one that’s right on the edge of turning into greed. The recent neutral mentality in the sector has come following a phase of greed among the traders, as the below chart shows. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index spiked to a high of 72 earlier in the month as the asset’s price gave investors hope that its consolidation phase might be coming to an end. As the recovery rally has fizzled out and the coin has returned to its range, however, optimism among the investors has predictably faded. If history is to go by, though, this development may not actually be so bad for the cryptocurrency. Generally, digital asset markets tend to move in a way that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. The probability of such an opposite move taking place goes up the more extreme the crowd opinion becomes. Besides the three core sentiments, there are two special regions known as the extreme fear (under 25) and extreme greed (above 75). These zones are where the likelihood of a contrary move has been the strongest in the past, with tops and bottoms often taking form. Although the market sentiment has recently only seen a reset to the neutral territory, the fact that the investors are no longer greedy could still be a positive for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. There have been many instances in the past where a dip into the neutral zone was enough for the bull run to regain momentum. It only remains to be seen, though, how the prices of BTC and others would develop in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around the $102,800 mark, down more than 2% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin has resumed a slow climb upward after a recent period of consolidation, briefly breaking back above the $106,000 mark earlier today. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $105,383, reflecting a 0.8% increase over the past 24 hours. While this upward move has not sparked a major breakout, analysts are paying close attention to on-chain and market structure indicators that suggest a cautiously balanced environment. On-Chain Data Points to Equilibrium, But Demand Wanes According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the market currently lacks extreme signals of profit-taking or panic. In a recent analysis, Darkfost explained that realized profits over a seven-day moving average remain below $1 billion. This is in line with figures observed during the market correction in late 2024 and significantly below peaks seen in early 2025. The analyst suggests that the current realized profit levels point to a market that is not under pressure from large-scale investor exits, supporting the ongoing consolidation. In the same report, Darkfost also discussed how a decline in demand may be limiting further upward momentum. By analyzing the ratio of new supply to the supply held inactive for over a year, the study observed that while demand remains positive, it has been weakening since Bitcoin’s local high in May. This suggests that although the market is absorbing existing selling pressure, fresh buying interest is not strong enough to trigger a new rally. As a result, the market appears to be in a state of temporary equilibrium, a phase where both sellers and buyers are relatively inactive. Bitcoin Traders Brace for Volatility in a Crowded Range Another CryptoQuant analyst, BorisVest, echoed the sentiment of a tightly contested market by analyzing Binance order flow and position data. He noted that Bitcoin has traded within a range of $100,000 to $110,000 for nearly a month. Within this band, both long and short positions have been building, and traders are watching the extremes of this zone closely. According to BorisVest, any breakout beyond $110,000 or drop below $100,000 could set the tone for the next significant price movement. The $100K–$110K price range has become a battleground for both bulls and bears. BorisVest observed that short positions are currently increasing, indicating that a significant portion of market participants expect a downward correction. However, he also pointed out that when shorts dominate, the risk of a sudden reversal, known as a short squeeze, becomes more likely. This behavior is consistent with recent funding rate trends, which show a fairly balanced distribution of long and short bets. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

While Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound – trading between $100,000 and $110,000 for about a month – both short and long positions have been building within this range, with short positions rising at a faster pace. Bitcoin Long Positions Slightly Ahead But Shorts Catching Up After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,814 last month, BTC has consolidated within the $100,000–$110,000 range for nearly a month, offering little clarity on its next directional move. According to a new CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisVest, fresh data from Binance crypto exchange suggests that long positions currently hold a slight edge in this range. Historical data reveals a pattern – when short positions rise, short squeezes tend to follow. Similarly, a buildup in long positions has often led to long squeezes. A decisive breakout from either end of the current range will likely determine Bitcoin’s next major move. That said, Binance data indicates that while long positions are marginally ahead, the ratio of longs to shorts remains relatively balanced. The funding rate hovering near neutral levels supports this view, reflecting a closely contested standoff between bulls and bears. However, such balance usually signals uncertainty in the market. While long interest has stabilized, short positions continue to climb – likely driven by expectations of further downside amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. BorisVest noted: This shows that most market participants believe the rally may not continue. When Bitcoin’s price starts to fall, and funding rates turn negative, it means shorts are piling in quickly. All of this points to this range being a highly sensitive zone. He further noted that with most traders leaning toward short positions, the setup could be ripe for a surprise move in the opposite direction – possibly fuelled by quiet accumulation from larger market participants. Is BTC Preparing For A Big Move? Despite BTC trading within the $100,000 – $110,000 range for the better part of the previous month, several analysts posit that the flagship cryptocurrency is preparing for a major move in the coming weeks. Most analysts are leaning toward a move to the upside. For instance, crypto trader Josh Olszewics remarked that if liquidity holds, then BTC may eye a move toward the $150,000 level. From a technical standpoint, the outlook is encouraging. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto recently pointed out that BTC is forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern on the 3-day chart. However, latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross recently moved into an overpriced zone, warranting caution. At press time, BTC trades at $105,940, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

Dogecoin edged up slightly to $0.17 on Friday, gaining 1.0% in the last 24 hours. Trading has thinned out this week, and Dogecoin has slipped almost 3% over the past seven days. Based on reports, investors are moving carefully as volume dropped 30% to about $678 million. Trading Volume Drop Signals Caution According to on‑chain data, the slump in daily volume shows fewer traders are stepping in. That 34% slide in activity suggests a loss of momentum. Some market watchers say low volume often leads to whipsaws. When fewer coins change hands, even modest buys or sells can push prices sharply in either direction. Triangle Pattern Points To Imminent Breakout On charts stretching from early 2024 into mid‑2025, Dogecoin fits a symmetrical triangle. Prices have carved lower highs and higher lows as trendlines converge. Data from crypto analyst Ali shows, this narrowing range often precedes a major move. He notes the tip of the triangle is due by June 2025, which puts a deadline on when volatility should pick up. DOGE Bulls Eye Breakout According to Ali’s analysis, a daily close above $0.22 likely signals a bullish breakout. If that happens, he sees Dogecoin reaching roughly $0.35 or $0.36—about 60% higher than current levels. On the flip side, a drop below $0.16 could spark a sell‑off toward $0.10. Investors are watching those exact levels to decide whether to join buyers or cut losses. DOGE Price Forecast Digital Coin Price is on the optimistic end. They predict Dogecoin could go past $0.37 before year‑end and even test its old high of $0.74 again. Market Catalysts Could Tip The Scales Dogecoin’s swings often mirror the wider crypto space or follow social media buzz. A surge in Bitcoin or Ethereum prices could carry DOGE higher, while a broader sell‑off would magnify losses. Some traders also keep an eye on endorsements from well‑known figures and major exchange listings. For now, patience may pay off. Traders will look for volume to confirm any move past $0.22 or under $0.16. Until then, expect choppy range‑bound action. The next few weeks will be critical as the symmetrical triangle tightens. If volume steps back in, Dogecoin could pick a clear direction—either a strong rally or a deeper correction. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

CryptoInsightUK’s latest market briefing arrives with the sound of literal hammer blows next door, an accidental soundtrack to the pounding he expects traders to take before the next rally. In a thirteen–minute walkthrough of XRP, Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidity maps, the British analyst argues that the market is staging what he calls “a deliberate trap” designed to flush out weak hands, harvest stop-loss orders and maximise upside leverage for larger players—leaving retail participants “screaming, ‘Yay, we’re going to the upside,’ … only to find out they’ve been played.” The Trap Is Set, Warns XRP Trader He begins with XRP’s five-month down-channel that started at the New-Year peak, noting that price continues to hug the underside of a descending trend line. “We’re stuck below that trend line basically looking to see if this liquidity is going to get taken below us. My obvious opinion is that it is,” he says, underscoring the conviction that a sweep of resting bids below remains the path of least resistance. The flush, he contends, would “make our journey to the upside much better and much easier to navigate,” because it would reset funding, scare out late longs and reload the order book for what he still calls the next “parabolic expansion probably up towards the $8 to $12 region.” The trap, however, may not be a straightforward vertical collapse. Charts, he reminds viewers, “love doing something like” an initial breakout that rallies 15-20%, convinces traders the bear-phase is finished, and then abruptly reverses into the deep liquidity pocket below. “That’s exactly how higher-highs-and-higher-lows type situations are supposed to get you frustrated,” he says, openly conceding that the pattern looks engineered. The phrase he never uses—manipulation—hovers unspoken over the analysis, but his rhetoric leaves little doubt: “This is how they test everybody.” Bitcoin, in his narrative, may serve as the decoy that sets the trap. The benchmark asset has already slipped out of its own wedge-like consolidation and, he observes, “does like to do this sort of thing” by staging premature upside breaks. He sketches a possible march toward $115,000 that would “delay the inevitable” and then give way to a liquidity hunt of its own. Even so, his mid-cycle price band for Bitcoin remains $150,000 to $220,000. That upside, he argues, justifies dollar-cost-averaging into altcoins even while keeping “a tiny bit of dry powder” in reserve for the washout he expects. A more elaborate scenario involves a temporary dominance surge in Bitcoin to the 66 to 74% range. As Bitcoin siphons capital, alts such as XRP would “bleed out,” take the downside liquidity target, and only then reverse as cash rotates back into their order books. He illustrates the dance on twin TradingView panels—Bitcoin on the left, XRP on the right—before concluding that the rotational setup is “not highly likely” because it requires several macro-scale dominoes to fall in sequence. Still, he refuses to dismiss it, pointing to the strategic reserve bill in Washington as the sort of narrative catalyst that could spark a temporary Bitcoin-only rally and demoralise alt-holders. Macro-risk flickers through the commentary—wars that could “shove us down” in the near term—but he treats geopolitical stress as a catalyst for final capitulation rather than a thesis-killer. “The upside is so large it almost can’t be ignored,” he insists, framing the present chop as a high-volatility pause before a structural up-leg. Whether that leg begins only after a full flush or emerges from yet another fake-out remains uncertain, but the analyst’s message is unmistakable: traders who chase breakouts without accounting for hidden hands risk being liquidated first, spectators to the parabola they hoped to ride. For now he is content to wait “for the market to do its worst trick,” believing that the final shakeout will announce itself through a sudden, depth-piercing wick. “You’re being played,” he warns. The admonition is stark: if the playbook unfolds as expected, the pain will be quick. “If we get these levels, that’s where I’m putting the last bit of my dry powder in[…]. It’s $1.80-ish, $1.90 maybe.” At press time, XRP traded at $2.16.

According to an analyst on X, Bitcoin’s grip on the market looks too strong for altcoins to break free any time soon. Bitcoin’s price ticked up to around $104,000 after climbing 0.4%. It had dipped briefly to $103,000 but buyers stepped in fast. That push drove it back toward the $105K mark. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, keeping traders on alert for any ripple effects. Bull Market Support Band Explained Based on reports, the Bull Market Support Band sits between two key moving averages. One is a 20‑week simple moving average. The other is a 21‑week exponential moving average. Together they form a zone that Bitcoin Dominance has used as a springboard all year. When dominance tests that area, it usually bounces higher instead of dropping further. Historical Support Tests Bitcoin Dominance fell from about 56% in June 2024 to 54% in July of that year but found support. It also slipped from 58% down to 56% between late December 2024 and January 2025. Each time, the support band held firm. More recently, dominance dipped to 61% on May 14 after peaking at 65% on May 7, only to recover to 64% in a matter of days. Analyst Warnings And Scenarios Other experts see a different picture. Bitcoinsensus warns dominance could “fall off a cliff” before any altcoin season kicks off. That view suggests a sudden drop, maybe giving altcoins their moment. An analyst points to a possible double‑top pattern in dominance. If Bitcoin can’t clear resistance, money might flow into altcoins. But if dominance breaks higher, some believe Bitcoin could aim for a fresh record. Limitations Of Dominance Metric Dominance only measures Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap. It can slip if stablecoins flood in or if new tokens launch, even when altcoins aren’t rallying. And a rise in dominance can mean altcoins are selling off. Traders should know that moving‑average support lines can fail in choppy markets. A pattern that works for months can break when the climate changes. In the end, the Bull Market Support Band offers a clear trend line. It shows that Bitcoin is still the favorite for many investors. Yet relying on one technical tool can miss bigger moves driven by real‑world news or fresh blockchain data. For now, though, Bitcoin’s dominance looks safe—unless something big shifts in the weeks ahead. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

Rare earths have been in the news lately, with a deal between the United States and China regarding the 17 elements on the Period Table, followed by a plan the Trump administration is developing to prioritize and fund rare earth projects it deems critical to national security. According to a June 12 story by Bloomberg, Officials are discussing using the Defense Production Act to tap financing, loans and other means for rare earths element-related projects, including mining, processing and other downstream technologies to bolster the US’s capability to build a domestic supply chain, the people said. A specific course of action or a timeline have yet to be finalized, the people said. So, at this point, we don’t know which upstream mining projects will be funded, particularly which deposits will be developed. This is important to know, because not all rare earths deposits are created equal. The light rare earth elements are the easiest to extract and separate, whereas heavy rare earths separation is complicated, expensive, and messy, creating environmental degradation unless stringent regulations are put in place. Yet it is the heavies that are most needed for high-tech and military applications. The rare earth element samarium and the critical metal cobalt create samarium-cobalt permanent magnets that are valued for their resistance to high temperatures and corrosion. Defense contractor Lockheed Martin is the main US consumer of samarium, with about 50 pounds of samarium-cobalt magnets in an F-35 fighter plane. The magnets retain their magnetic properties under temperatures high enough to liquefy lead. The New York Times reported the Biden administration attempted to kick-start processing of samarium in 2022, awarding financing to MP Materials and Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths. However, MP Materials told the Times that the market was too small to support producers in the US. (Investor’s Business Daily) Executive Order 14241 directs federal agencies to streamline permitting and accelerate the development of U.S. mineral projects, while invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) to prioritize and fund the mining and processing of critical minerals on public lands. Currently, there is no heavy rare earth separation capacity in the United States, though efforts to build this capability are underway. Indeed, China maintains a chokehold on all aspects of rare earths production — from mining to refining/separation to the manufacture of rare earth metals needed for permanent magnets, among other final products. China mines 60% of the world’s rare earths and processes 87% of them. (Visual Capitalist) China’s metal dominance — Richard Mills This put the United States in a vulnerable position — if rare earths exports to the United States were to be banned or restricted, as they have been recently, the US military’s war-fighting capabilities would be severely compromised. In this article, we prove that the latest initiatives by the United States to lessen rare earths import dependence on China have in fact done little to loosen China’s grip on rare earths elements, particularly those needed to make military-grade magnets. China-US rare earths deal On June 11 US and Chinese officials finalized a new trade framework following two days of negotiations in London. According to the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), the agreement includes a commitment from Beijing to resume exports of rare earth elements and magnets to the United States, following two months of severe export restrictions that disrupted key inputs for the automotive, robotics, and defense sectors. In early April, China imposed export controls on seven rare earth elements (REEs) and related permanent magnets, citing national security concerns and in response to US tariffs. The targeted REEs include samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. Although hundreds of export licenses have been submitted to Chinese authorities since April, only a quarter have been approved. The delay in issuing export licenses has had a significant impact on US, European and Japanese companies, particularly auto manufacturers. According to CSIS, Ford shut down production of the Ford Explorer at its Chicago plant for a week in May due to a rare earth’s shortage; several European auto supplier plants and production lines were closed; Nissan and Suzuki Motors reported supply disruptions; and shipments of rare earth magnets to Germany fell 50% from March to April. In the deal to restore US access to Chinese rare earth elements, According to reports, in exchange for China supplying the United States “up front” with rare earths and permanent magnets, the deal permits the United States to impose a 55 percent tariff on Chinese imports, consisting of a 10 percent base “reciprocal” tariff, an additional 20 percent tariff tied to fentanyl trafficking, and a 25 percent tariff that incorporates existing duties. China would apply a 10 percent tariff on U.S. imports. Notably, China has weaponized various minerals over the past two years, including restrictions on gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten and rare earths. In response, rare earths have been a cornerstone of the second Trump administration. For example, in a state visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump signed a memorandum of understanding between US-based MP Materials and Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden mining company to advance a complete mine-to-magnet supply chain. Australia will be an important ally in reducing dependence on China, for example Iluke Resources’ Eneabba Rare Earths Refinery in Western Australia, supported by a $1.25 billion government loan; and Arafura Rare Earths Limited’s Nolans Project, which has secured $840 million in federal funding and is projected to supply 4% of the global demand for neodymium and praseodymium starting in 2032. Australia is on track to triple its output of mined rare earth oxides between 2025 and 2027. The Department of Defense (DOD), in its 2024 National Defense Industrial Strategy, set a target to establish a fully integrated mine-to-magnet rare earth supply chain capable of meeting all U.S. defense requirements by 2027. Since 2020, the DOD has invested over $439 million to strengthen domestic supply chains. This includes a $9.6 million award to MP Materials in 2020 under the DPA Title III program to develop a light rare earth separation facility at Mountain Pass, California, followed by a $35 million award in 2022 for a heavy rare earth processing facility. CSIS notes, the only long-term solution to the rare earths crisis is to build alternative supply chains that reduce dependence on China. This will include building and expanding domestic rare earth mining, refining, and magnet manufacturing capacity for both light and heavy rare earths, as well as working with international partners to unlock new deposits and establish processing and manufacturing hubs. Back to the June 11 agreement, while Trump wrote on his Truth Social media platform, “Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval from President Xi and me,” it does not favor the United States because China has given up so little. Reuters reported on Sunday that The renewed U.S.-China trade truce struck in London left a key area of export restrictions tied to national security untouched… Beijing has not committed to grant export clearance for some specialized rare-earth magnets that U.S. military suppliers need for fighter jets and missile systems, the people said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there would be no “quid pro quo” on easing curbs on exports of AI chips to China in exchange for access to rare earths. Indeed, the United States maintains export curbs on China’s purchases of advanced artificial intelligence chips, out of concern they also have military applications. While China promised to fast-track approval of RE export applications, the applications are from non-military US manufacturers, and the licenses only have a six-month term. In other words, the United States is not getting any rare earths from China for defense purposes, and the rare earth export licenses for civilian purposes are temporary; they have to be renewed every six months. Importantly, Reuters states, China has not budged on specialized rare earths, including samarium, which are needed for military applications and are outside the fast-track agreed in London, the two people said. Automakers and other manufacturers largely need other rare earth magnets, including dysprosium and terbium. The agreement reached in London then is a far cry from Trump’s Truth Social announcement last Wednesday: “FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA.” Investor’s Business Daily said the talks’ failure to unlock exports of rare earth magnets for specialized national security needs could become an issue for Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jets as inventories run down. A shortage of rare earths also threatens to hit the brakes on US manufacturing of cars, robotics and other high-tech gear. DoD initiative Soon after the London rare earths deal was announced, Bloomberg came out with this headline: ‘Trump mulls using defense powers to fund rare earth projects’. As mentioned the Department of Defence in 2020 awarded $9.6 million to MP Materials to develop a light rare earths separation facility at its Mountain Pass mine in California, followed by a $35 million in 2022 for a heavy rare earth processing facility. According to Bloomberg, Officials are discussing using the Defense Production Act to tap financing, loans and other means for rare earths element-related projects, including mining, processing and other downstream technologies to bolster the US’s capability to build a domestic supply chain, the people said… The US currently lacks the so-called mine-to-magnet capability at scale, and invoking the emergency authority will give the Defense Department and other agencies tools to speed up sourcing that severely lags China’s dominance in the industry. The urgency has only increased since Beijing flexed its rare earths capacity as leverage in trade talks with Washington over the past month. While short on details, the article says that MP Materials, operator of Mountain Pass and the only current domestic producer of rare earths, “would be a prime beneficiary.” MP Materials Up until recently, MP Materials dug up predominantly light rare earth elements from Mountain Pass and sent them to China for processing — leading to accusations that the company was “owned” by China and did nothing to transform the United States from a rare earth’s miner to a rare earth’s refiner and permanent magnets producer. In fact, the company is owned by US hedge funds JHL Capital Group and QVT Financial LP, along with its CEO, James Litinsky, who collectively hold a 51.8% stake. Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company with partial state ownership, holds an 8% stake. Shenghe was the company doing the processing; however this stopped in April 2025, when MP Materials stopped shipping rare earths concentrate to China following China’s imposition of rare earths export controls and retaliatory tariffs. First came a milestone achieved in January of this year. The company announced it commenced commercial production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and trial production of automotive-grade, sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets at its Independence facility in Fort Worth, Texas. MP has ramped up its capacity to produce rare earth concentrate from its Mountain Pass mine, which it turns into neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal magnets at Independence. But it’s the NdFeB magnets that are important. According to the company, they are “the world’s most powerful and efficient permanent magnets — essential components in vehicles, drones, robotics, electronics, and aerospace and defense systems.” The Independence facility is expected to produce about 1,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets per year, with a gradual production ramp beginning in late 2025. The facility will supply magnets to General Motors and other manufacturers, sourcing its raw materials from Mountain Pass. (In 2021, MP Materials entered into an agreement with General Motors to supply US-sourced and manufactured rare earth materials, alloy, and finished magnets for the electric motors used in the GMC HUMMER EV, Cadillac LYRIQ, Chevrolet Silverado EV, and more than a dozen models using GM’s Ultium Platform. Read the press release) One thing that jumped out of me was a statistic reported by The Northern Miner. While MP Materials expects to produce 1,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets, by contrast, China produced an estimated 300,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets in 2024, up from 280,000 tonnes in 2023. 1,000 tonnes vs 300,000 tonnes means MP Materials only has the capacity to supply 0.003% of China’s NdFeB magnet capacity. It’s also the kind of rare earths that Mountain Pass is producing that is important. While the open-pit mine last year produced a record-high 45,000 tonne of rare earth oxides in concentrate, and a midstream production record of about 1,300 tonnes of NdPr oxide (needed for the magnets), MP Materials produces virtually no rare earths needed for defense/ military applications. The Mountain Pass mine primarily produces neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, a key component in NdFeB permanent magnets. Other rare earth compounds include lanthanum carbonate and cerium chloride, as well as bastnaesite concentrate and heavy rare earths concentrate. The latter, as far as I can tell, has yet to be incorporated into the Independence permanent magnet facility. Lynas Corp The only other non-Chinese rare earths producer is Australia’s Lynas Corp. It produces rare earths from its Mount Weld mine in Australia, then refines them in Malaysia. Like MP Materials, Lynas is also building a rare earths processing facility in Texas. An AI Overview says the facility in Seadrift, TX will be a heavy rare earths separation plant, co-located with a light rare earth’s separation plant. It will produce dysprosium and terbium, two heavy rare earth elements crucial for high-performance magnets, particularly those used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. The overview says these elements are added to neodymium-iron-boron magnets to enhance their heat resistance. It does not say whether these magnets are military-appropriate, nor whether the facility will manufacture samarium-cobalt magnets necessary for multiple military applications. The plant is being supported by a $120 million contract from the US Department of Defense. It is expected to be operational in 2026. Separation anxiety The rare earths are a group of 17 elements comprising scandium, yttrium, and the lanthanides. The lanthanides are a group of 15 (cerium, dysprosium, erbium, europium, gadolinium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, terbium, thorium, thulium, ytterbium) chemically similar elements with atomic numbers 57 through 71, inclusive. The lanthanides are divided into light rare elements, LREE, and heavy rare earth elements, HREE. Light REEs are made up of the first seven elements of the lanthanide series: lanthanum (La, atomic number 57), cerium (Ce, atomic number 58), praseodymium (Pr, atomic number 59), neodymium (Nd, atomic number 60) promethium (Pm, atomic number 61) and samarium (Sm, atomic number 62). HREEs are made up of the higher atomic numbered elements – europium (EU, atomic number 63), gadolinium (Gd, atomic number 64), terbium (TB, atomic number 65), dysprosium (Dy, atomic number 66), holmium (Ho, atomic number 67), ebium (Er, atomic number 68), thulium (Tm, atomic number 69), ytterbium (Yb, atomic number 70) and lutetium (Lu, atomic number 71). Mining REEs is fairly straightforward but separating and extracting a single REE takes a great deal of time, effort and expertise. Rare earth ore: the ore is ground up using crushers and rotating grinding mills, magnetic separation (bastnasite and monazite are highly magnetic, they can be separated from non-magnetic impurities in the ore through repeated electromagnetic separation) and flotation gives you the lowest-value sellable product in the rare earth supply chain: the concentrated ore. The milling equipment – crushers, grinding mills, flotation devices, and electrostatic separators – all have to be configured in a way that suits the type of ore being mined. No two ores respond the same way. Concentrated ore: chemically extract the mixed rare earths from the concentrated ore (cons) by chemical processing. The cons have to undergo chemical treatment to allow further separation and upgrading of the REEs. This process, called cracking, includes techniques like roasting, salt or caustic fusion, high temperature sulfidation, and acid leaching which allow the REEs within a concentrate to be dissolved. This separates the mixed rare earths from any other metals that may be present in the ore. The result will be still-mixed-together rare earths. Rare earth oxide (REO): the major value in REE processing lies in the production of high-purity REOs and metals — but it isn’t easy. A REE refinery uses ion exchange and/or multi-stage solvent extraction technology to separate and purify the REEs. Solvent-extraction processes involve re-immersing processed ore into different chemical solutions to separate individual elements. The elements are so close to each other in terms of atomic weight that each of these processes involve multiple stages to complete the separation process. In some cases, it requires several hundred tanks of different solutions to separate one rare earth element. HREEs are the hardest, most time-consuming to separate. Source: Security Beat Permanent magnets primer MP Materials’ Fort Worth facility is where refined rare earth materials from its Mountain Pass mine in California are transformed into metals, alloys, and finished neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets. NdFeB magnets, or just neodymium magnets, are critical for electric vehicles, robots and wind turbines. One magnet manufacturer names their top 8 uses: MRIs, magnotherapy, audio equipment, lifting large loads, permanent magnet motors, magnetic separation technology, microwave communication technology, and magnetization technology. They are also used in defense applications. A paper titled ‘America’s Dependence On and Need to Secure Its Supply of Permanent Magnets’ by USAF Lieutenant Colonel Justin Davey states that “Neodymium and samarium… have a disproportionate influence on all high technology businesses, especially the defense industry. They combine with other elements (specifically iron, boron, and cobalt) to make exceptional permanent magnets. Samarium-cobalt (SmCo) magnets have the highest known resistance to demagnetization. This capability, meaning the magnet has higher coercivity, allows them to function in high-temperature environments without losing magnetic strength — an essential attribute for most military applications. Similarly, neodymiumiron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are incredibly strong — the most powerful commercial magnet available. Compared to an equal mass of traditional ferrite magnet, an NdFeB magnet has over 10 times the magnetic energy product. Accordingly, a much smaller amount of magnet is required for any particular application. This attribute makes them ideal for miniaturization of motors, electronics, and electrical components.” Samarium-cobalt magnets were first introduced in the 1970s. They are stronger than alnico or ceramic material and offer the best heat resistance of all the permanent magnet types, with the ability to withstand temperatures up to 300 degrees C. However, due to their higher cost, they are less popular than the most common rare earth magnet, NdFeB. Samarium-cobalt magnets are highly resistant to rusting, but they are also brittle and may fracture when extreme heat causes them to expand. Neodymium-iron-boron magnets have similar properties to their samarium-cobalt cousins, except they are less resistant to oxidation, needing a surface treatment, and can’t withstand such high temperatures. Because they pack such a high magnetic punch, NdFeB magnets can fit into compact spaces, such as electric motors and cordless tools. Terbium and dysprosium are sometimes added to NdFeB magnets to allow them to tolerate even higher temperatures. “Miniature high-temperature resistant permanent magnets are a key factor in developing state-of-the-art military technology,” Lieutenant Colonel Davey’s paper continues. “They pervade the equipment and function of all service branches, starting with commercial computer hard drives containing NdFeB magnets that sit on nearly every Department of Defense (DOD) employee’s desk. “Precision-guided munitions depend on SmCo magnets as part of the motors that manipulate their flight control surfaces. Without these advanced tiny magnets, the motors in “smart bombs,” like the joint direct attack munition (JDAM), would require a hydraulic system that is more expensive and three times as large. The generators that produce power for aircraft electrical systems also rely on samarium-cobalt magnets, as does the stealth technology used to mask the sound of helicopter rotor blades by generating white-noise concealment. Other permanent magnet applications include “jet engines and other aircraft components, electronic countermeasures, underwater mine detection, antimissile defense, range finding, and space-based satellite power and communications systems,” according to USGS. The Army relies on REE magnets for the navigation systems in its M1A2 Abrams battle tank and the Navy is developing a similarly dependent electric drive to conserve fuel for its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. The Air Force’s F-22 fighter uses miniaturized permanent magnet motors to run its tail fins and rudder.” According to the US Department of Defense, Rare earth permanent magnets are not only essential components in a range of defense capabilities, including the F-35 Lightning II aircraft, Virginia and Columbia class submarines and unmanned aerial vehicles, but also a critical part of commercial applications in the United States. They are also used to generate electricity for electronic systems in aircraft and focus microwave energy in radar systems.  Since 2020, DOD has awarded more than $439 million to establish domestic rare earth element supply chains. This includes separating and refining rare earth elements mined in the U.S., as well as developing downstream stateside processes needed to convert those refined materials into metals and then magnets.  In addition to the F-35, Virginia and Columbia class submarines, magnets produced from rare earth elements are used in systems such as Tomahawk missiles, a variety of radar systems, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs. The F-35, for instance, requires more than 900 pounds of rare earth elements. Each Arleigh Burke DDG-51 destroyer requires 5,200 pounds, and a Virginia class submarine needs 9,200 pounds. Anti-ballistic missiles like Israel’s “Iron Dome” use samarium-cobalt and neodymium magnets for various functions within the missile’s guidance and control systems. It was recently reported that Israel and the United States are using ballistic missile interceptors at a rapid clip after four days with Iran. There are even concerns that a direct US strike on Iran could lead to bigger Iranian retaliation against Israel that would drain the US’s global stockpile of missile interceptors to a “horrendous” level, one US official said. Other military applications Rare earths are central to the whole spectrum of defense technologies that are vital to every military. Without them, countries would be unable to produce much of the military hardware and equipment required for national defense. In most case there are no substitutes. Moreover, switching from current suppliers (i.e. China) would cause major disruptions to supply chains. According to the US Government Accountability Office, it would take 15 years to overhaul the defence supply chain, meaning any changes to it need considerable lead time. Apart from permanent magnets, of which the US military is an important buyer, other applications of rare earth elements include: Radar and sonar used to prevent collisions, for surveillance and navigational aids. The Patriot Missile Air Defense System employs radio frequency circulators to magnetically control the flow of electronic signals in the radar and missiles. Rare earths required: gadolinium, samarium, yttrium. Communications and displays required by soldiers, sailors and airmen to see analog and digital data. Examples are lasers that help line-of-sight communication links in satellite and ground-based systems; old and new computer monitors; and avionics terminals. Rare earths required: dysprosium, erbium, europium, neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and yttrium. Lasers employed on vehicle-mounted systems like tanks and armored vehicles. They can identify enemy targets up to 22 miles. According to DefenseMediaNetwork, “The laser-equipped computer main gun sight on the Abrams M1A/2 tank combines a Raytheon rangefinder and integrated designator targeting system used to obtain a high-probability first hit.” Rare earths required: europium, neodymium, terbium and yttrium. Precision-guided munitions (PGMs) take in a number of missile classes including cruise, anti-ship (ASM) and surface-to-air (SAM), as well as bunker busters. The heat-seeking AIM-9 Sidewinder missile has four fins on its fuselage that use rare-earth magnets to control its flight trajectory. Rare earths required: dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium and terbium. Guidance and control systems that steer missiles and bombs towards their targets. Rare earths required: terbium, dysprosium, samarium, praseodymium and neodymium. Electronic warfare refers to a range of equipment that includes high-capacity power sources, storage batteries and electronic jamming devices. Rare earths required: yttrium-iron-garnet. Jet engines. The rare earth element erbium is added to vanadium to make it more malleable for use in vanadium-infused steel that goes into jet engines. While not specifically a rare earth element, the rare element rhenium is alloyed with molybdenum and tungsten. The F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter reportedly use 6% rhenium in their engines. The electrical systems in aircraft employ samarium-cobalt permanent magnets to generate power. Not enough According to the US Geological Survey, MP Materials produces a rare earth concentrate that annually contributes around 15% of the rare earth minerals consumed each year. MP Materials is focused on refining a compound of neodymium and praseodymium — one of the most common materials used to make rare earth magnets — as well as lanthanum and cerium. These elements are classified as “light rare earths.” The US government clearly wants MP Materials to also produce heavy rare earths concentrates that it can use to make specialty magnets, especially samarium-cobalt magnets. The DoD awarded MP Materials a $35 million contract in 2022 to build a facility to process heavy REEs. A 2023 article by National Defense Magazine says the heavy rare earths will be refined in a different building than the lights, and that the project is just getting started. The article notes that heavy rare earths terbium and dysprosium are needed to make rare earth permanent magnets that can operate in high temperatures, while samarium is used to produce samarium-cobalt magnets found in aerospace and defense applications. As I said earlier, I don’t see anything at the Independence facility in Texas to indicate that HREEs are being turned into magnets. Yet. Rare earths expert Jack Lifton provides some perspective on the US military’s rare earths gap. He starts with the observation that a permanent magnet production facility currently under construction in South Carolina would produce 2,000 tonnes annually, of which 1,200 tonnes is earmarked for current military demand. But Lifton isn’t optimistic about the ability of US companies to develop this industry: The few U.S.-based companies vying to establish themselves as domestic sources of rare earth permanent magnets for private industry possess aspirations, not achievements. They lack the capacity to produce at scale, the technical experience to compete globally, and the balance sheets to operate without subsidy… Collectively, the U.S. and European consumer sectors represent a modest portion of global demand for rare earth permanent magnets—approximately 40,000 tonnes annually spread across more than 30 nations. This figure amounts to just 10% of China’s installed production capacity. China itself consumes an estimated 80% of what it produces, underscoring both the scale and self-sufficiency of its domestic industry. Can the rest of the world construct a rare earth permanent magnet industry capable of global cost-competitiveness with China? No. Can select non-Chinese firms develop limited-scale, financially sustainable magnet production capacity for strategic or niche markets? Possibly. Mark Smith, the former boss of Molycorp, which ran the Mountain Pass mine before it went bankrupt and was bought by MP Materials, says Western nations will take years to develop enough rare earth processing capacity to limit China’s dominance over them. The current CEO of NioCorp Developments is developing a new mine in Nebraska that could produce rare earth elements, but notes that even with approved mines, production would start in 2029 at the earliest. No firm outside of China can yet produce significant quantities of the terbium, dysprosium or samarium limited by Beijing and necessary for magnets to endure high operating temperatures. (Bloomberg) Clyde Russell, a metals columnist with Reuters, thinks the US-China deal on rare earths will probably hurt both economies due to the high tariffs now in place (55% on Chinese imports, 10% on US imports). Moreover, Russell believes the deal does little to solve the underlying problem with rare earths, magnets and other refined metals such as lithium and cobalt, which are dominated by Chinese supply chains: At best, the agreement this week is a kick the can down the road type of deal, insofar as it prevents an immediate crisis in manufacturing in the United States but leaves open the possibility that Beijing will once again threaten supplies if there are problems between the two sides in the future. The Guardian notes that China has a stranglehold on the production and export of samarium, which, as explained above, is needed to make samarium-cobalt magnets used to withstand the intense temperatures in military-grade technology. Examples include guided missiles, satellite-guided smart bombs and fighter jets, but the Guardian says supplies of those weapons have been depleted through deliveries of missiles and other ordnances to Ukraine and Israel. China controls 100% of world samarium supply. There is also no commercial production of dysprosium and terbium outside of China. High-performance NdFeB magnets require trace amounts of these rare earths to function at high temperatures. Stanford Magnets concurs that consumption of rare earths in the United States, including rare earth magnets, is highly dependent on China. More than 90% of the world’s rare earth permanent magnet supply comes from China, and the United States also needs to import nearly 70% of rare earth magnets from China. At present, the United States does not have enough R&D capabilities to manufacture rare earth permanent magnets. For example, the United States does not have the ability to produce high-temperature and corrosion-resistant samarium-cobalt rare earth permanent magnets, which can be used to make rare-earth permanent magnets for precision-guided missiles, smart bombs, and military aircraft. However, China has this technology. At present, China’s rare earth processing capacity is five times the total rare earth processing capacity of other regions in the world. This means that it will take at least a few years to build a processing plant that can match China’s rare earth production capacity. Remember, MP Materials’ plant in Texas can produce 1,000 tonnes of neodymium magnets per year. China produces an annual 300,000t. MP Materials and Lynas may have the capability of producing rare-earth materials that are necessary for making military-grade magnets, but the amounts are so small as to barely make a dent in China’s overwhelming global advantage. A dated (2013) report indicated the US military needed about 1,000 tons of permanent magnets annually, but current demand is likely higher, with some estimates suggesting 3,000 tons — about triple what MP Materials is currently capable of producing. Lynas’ Texas plant is scheduled to start up next year but again the amounts are small. According to Fastmarkets, Lynas’s facility will have estimated production capacity of 1,000-1,300 tonnes per year of light rare earth NdPr oxide, and 2,500-3,000 tpy of heavy rare earth oxides. The company announced a year ago it plans to start producing separated heavy rare earth products at its light rare earth’s refinery in Kuantan, Malaysia. The estimated throughput capacity is 1,500 tonnes per year of a mixed heavy rare earth compound called SEGH (samarium, europium, gadolinium, holmium). The US Department of Defense recognizes the problem and has spent $439 million since 2020 in contracts to establish domestic rare earth supply chains. Yet according to a 2024 report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), “Critical materials such as rare earths, are materials needed to supply U.S. military, industry, and essential civilian needs during a national emergency and are not found or produced in sufficient quantities in the U.S. Rare earths and certain other critical materials, such as tantalum and tungsten, are overwhelmingly mined and processed abroad, making the U.S. reliant on foreign suppliers — particularly China.” The GAO also pointed out, “Although the U.S. has some domestic resources and mining capability for rare earths, United States Geological Survey (USGS) identified in its 2024 Mineral Commodity Summaries report that the U.S. imported more than 95 percent of the total rare earths that it consumed. USGS’s report also noted that, from 2019 through 2022, most of the total rare earths imported into the U.S. came from China, leaving DoD weapon systems vulnerable to supply chain disruptions by an adversarial nation.” (Cipher Brief) A last opinion by New Security Beat notes that China built an entire ecosystem around the rare earths, from mineral production and processing to manufacturing finished products, and most importantly, rare earth magnets. The country has an effective monopoly over processing heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium, and light rare earths neodymium and praseodymium. China has mastered this process, while Western companies lack the expertise to achieve similar results. The two biggest rare earth mining companies outside of China, MP Materials and Lynas, have struggled to expand refining capacity despite huge US government investments. Conclusion Let’s go back to something Jack Lifton, the rare earths expert, wrote: Collectively, the U.S. and European consumer sectors represent a modest portion of global demand for rare earth permanent magnets—approximately 40,000 tonnes annually spread across more than 30 nations. This figure amounts to just 10% of China’s installed production capacity. China itself consumes an estimated 80% of what it produces, underscoring both the scale and self-sufficiency of its domestic industry. Note: these civilian-use magnets are made from light rare earths. Samarium, terbium and dysprosium, the heavy rare earths required to build military-grade, temperature-resistant magnets, are still not commercially available outside China. MP Materials is the only non-Chinese company currently able to complete the rare earths supply chain loop — from mining to separation/ refining to making the metal used to make permanent magnets. But MP only has the capacity to make 1,000 tonnes of neodymium magnets per year, against China’s 300,000 tpy. The US military requires about 3,000 tons of permanent magnets a year. MP is clearly not producing enough heavy rare earths elements to meet the US military’s needs. The actual amount of HREEs required is likely classified, but in a best-case scenario, MP will make 1,000 tonnes of neodymium magnets a year — some of which will have a military use, but many will not because they lack the addition of dysprosium and terbium needed to make the magnets high temperature-resistant. Granted, MP Materials is working on expanding its processing capabilities, including a heavy rare earth separation facility in Texas, but it still faces challenges in scaling up production to meet the military’s requirements. When Lynas’s plant come online next year it could make 1,000-1,300 tonnes per year of light rare earth NdPr oxide, and 2,500-3,000 tpy of heavy rare earth oxides. But there is nothing to indicate that Lynas’s facility will make permanent magnets. What will Lynas do with the oxides it refines? They will likely be shipped to China for turning into military and civilian-use rare earths magnets. The bottom line? America’s efforts to wrench control of the rare earths supply chain have so far failed despite the expenditure of nearly half a billion US dollars. In a way this is no surprise. China has had a multi-decade lead over the US rare earths mining, refining and permanent magnet manufacturing. In another way it’s no different from the crisis America is facing regarding its lack of graphite production. Graphite is a necessary component of lithium-ion batteries; it’s used in the anode. A report last year from the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies found that natural graphite and aluminium are the materials most commonly used across military applications and are also subject to considerable supply security risks that stem from the lack of suppliers’ diversification and the instability associated with supplying countries. The report assessed the degree of criticality for each of 40 materials deemed critical or soon to be critical. Natural graphite was rated “very high-risk” for air applications, and “high-risk” for sea applications. In the table below, natural graphite is rated red, very high risk, for its use in fighter aircraft, main battle tanks, submarines, corvettes, artillery and ammunition. Aluminum, used in fighters, tanks, missiles, submarines, corvettes, artillery, ammunition and torpedo’s, was also rated a very high-risk material. Source: Hague Centre for Strategic Studies The report says aluminum and natural graphite are the two most used materials in the defence industry and can be found in aircrafts (fighter, transport, maritime patrol, and unmanned), helicopters (combat and multi-role), aircraft and helicopter carriers, amphibious assault ships, corvettes, offshore patrol vessels, frigates, submarines, tanks, infantry fighter vehicles, artillery, and missiles. These materials are used in components such as airframe and propulsion systems of helicopters and aircrafts as well as onboard electronics of aircraft carriers, corvettes, submarines, tanks, and infantry fighter vehicles. The impact of supply security disruption would hence be very significant, given the multiplicity of aluminum and natural graphite’s applications. In the fighter plane graphic below, notice the use of natural graphite (red dots) in almost every part of the plane, including the body, wings, tail, nose, nozzle, propulsion system, landing gear, electro-optical systems, and sensors and electronic systems. According to the report, the most used of the 40 materials across the air domain are aluminum, natural graphite, copper and titanium: These materials have several applications in aeronautics. In aircrafts (fighter, transport, maritime patrol, and unmanned) and helicopters (combat and multi-role), aluminium, natural graphite, and titanium find their main application in the airframe, where they are used in the body, wings, tail, nose, and axis of the aircraft. They are also employed in the production of propulsion systems’ components such as combustors, nozzle, drive shaft, and propellers, as well as in landing gears, connectors, and electronic systems. Source: Hague Centre for Strategic Studies A second graphic of a tank shows natural graphite in the inertial navigation system, combat identification equipment, and coaxial machine gun. According to the report, For the construction of tank guns, Howitzer machine guns in infantry fighter vehicles, and GPS/SAL guidance systems in ammunition, natural graphite is found in combination with other materials to construct these components. Source: Hague Centre for Strategic Studies China is by far the biggest graphite producer at about 80% of global production. It also controls almost all graphite processing, establishing itself as a dominant player in every stage of the supply chain. Deficits are expected to kick in by 2025 as new graphite mines fail to keep up with surging demand from automakers. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as many as 97 average-sized graphite mines need to come online by 2035 to meet global demand. That’s about eight new mines a year, which at first may seem doable but considering the number of graphite projects worldwide and the time it takes to develop them into mines, we’re really up against it. The US is heavily reliant on imports for graphite. In 2024, the US imported 60,000 tonnes of natural graphite, with 87.7% being flake and high purity. The US military could not function without graphite and the US currently does not produce any graphite from domestic mines. Aluminum, also crucial for military equipment, is fast becoming a problem to source. Earlier this month, the Trump administration doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%. The tariffs make it more difficult for American firms to buy imported aluminum that is turned into US military equipment. Only one US mine, Mountain Pass in California, mines and processes rare earth elements. But most of what Mountain Pass produces are light rare earths — easier to process than heavies but not as valuable to the US military. The United States currently imports nearly all its military-grade samarium-cobalt magnets from China, a fact that I don’t see changing any time soon. Despite the US-China rare earths agreement, despite what MP Materials is doing, despite what Lynas is doing, and despite more handouts from the Department of Defense, China is still hamstringing the US military. We could soon feel the effects of China’s rare earth restrictions on F-35 inventories, and on depleted US and Israeli anti-ballistic missiles. The automobile industry is shutting down production lines because it can’t get the rare earths. China makes the specialty magnets required, and it’s unwilling to share them. In a 2024 column in Real Clear Energy, Eastern New Mexico University professor JimConstantopoulos writes that, should a conflict escalate into a war, the US would have shortfalls in 69 minerals, most of them used in weapons production. In a world that is getting more dangerous by the day, with missiles being flung between Israel and Iran, and war still raging between Russia and Ukraine, that is one scary thought. Legal Notice / Disclaimer Ahead of the Herd newsletter, aheadoftheherd.com, hereafter known as AOTH. Please read the entire Disclaimer carefully before you use this website or read the newsletter. If you do not agree to all the AOTH/Richard Mills Disclaimer, do not access/read this website/newsletter/article, or any of its pages. By reading/using this AOTH/Richard Mills website/newsletter/article, and whether you actually read this Disclaimer, you are deemed to have accepted it.

Bitcoin is currently hovering in a tightly compressed price range after failing multiple times to break above $110,000 earlier this month. The past few days have been characterized by the leading cryptocurrency trading around $105,000, with neither bulls nor bears taking control. Despite the overall consolidation, a subtle yet significant signal is starting to flash beneath the surface, particularly on the 4-hour chart, that might send Bitcoin to a new all-time high soon. Return Of Rare Divergence Pattern On Bitcoin’s 4H Chart Crypto analyst Luca (@CrypticTrades_) took to social media platform X to share a chart that highlights an important technical development on Bitcoin’s 4-hour timeframe: the return of a bullish divergence. This signal, which previously appeared in early April, preceded the massive rally that catapulted Bitcoin to its May 22 all-time high of $111,800. The same divergence is forming once again and another Bitcoin price breakout may be very close. As shown in the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart below, the divergence is clearly illustrated between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Price has been forming lower lows, while the RSI has been printing higher lows. This mismatch serves as an early indicator that selling momentum is fading, and a reversal to the upside could follow. The previous instance of this pattern directly preceded a sharp move from a $74,000 low in early April to above $111,000 in just a few weeks. What Does This Divergence Mean For Bitcoin’s Price? Bullish divergences on mid-timeframe charts like the 4-hour have a reputation for being the first reversal signals when supported by rising volume. In Bitcoin’s current case, the appearance of this pattern again could mean that the recent retracement from $111,800 has run its course. With RSI now trending upward even as price presses slightly lower, Bitcoin may be witnessing another hidden accumulation phase before its next leg higher. If the pattern holds true to its previous performance in April, the leading cryptocurrency could be setting up for another push toward new all-time high levels. Bitcoin is currently not far off from a new all-time high, as it is only about 5.5% away from its price peak. Based on this, another strong breakout could easily aim beyond the previous $111,800 high. Although Bitcoin’s price is relatively stagnant for now, the presence of this bullish divergence is a reminder of how quickly things can change. The previous bullish divergence ended up with a 50% price surge. A similar performance from the current price level would translate to another target above $160,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,700, up by 1.4% in the past 24 hours, already showing signs of the bullish divergence signal coming into action.

Solana is currently testing a critical demand zone near the $150 level after enduring weeks of persistent selling pressure and a broader shift in market sentiment. The asset is now trading roughly 20% below its May high of $185, with recent attempts at recovery facing strong resistance. Despite holding above major support for now, the overall structure suggests that downside risk remains if market conditions don’t improve soon. Top analyst Efloud shared a technical analysis on X, highlighting the importance of tracking Solana’s response to broader Bitcoin dynamics. He noted that if Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate sideways while Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rises, altcoins like SOL may struggle. In that case, Solana could continue retracing to find stronger support at mid-zones, particularly around the $123 and $116 levels. These price zones have previously acted as solid support/resistance areas and could serve as key inflection points should bearish momentum persist. A breakdown toward these targets would likely coincide with increasing BTC.D and continued investor caution in the altcoin market. Until then, SOL remains vulnerable within a fragile technical structure, and traders will closely watch for either a rebound or deeper correction in the coming days. Solana Holds Key Support As Analysts Eye Bullish Scenarios Solana is currently trading about 50% down from its all-time highs, with the explosive momentum seen at the end of 2024 now replaced by more subdued price action. The asset’s underperformance has left investors cautious, but many analysts remain optimistic about Solana’s potential once a new altcoin rally begins. For now, the focus is on holding critical demand zones that could determine whether SOL is gearing up for a recovery or further downside. According to Efloud, if Bitcoin continues consolidating sideways while Bitcoin dominance rises, Solana may find support at several mid-zones, particularly around $123 and $116. The $140 region has historically acted as a strong support/resistance flip, and a deviation around this level—losing it briefly before regaining it with strength—could present a short-term buying opportunity. Efloud notes that this scenario doesn’t necessarily imply that SOL must drop to those levels, but current market conditions—aside from Bitcoin—lack strong pair structures. If SOL can decisively break above the $168 resistance, a new leg upward could be triggered, with $230 potentially acting as the next major resistance zone. On the SOL/BTC pair, Efloud is watching for a reclaim of the 0.0015 level or a pullback toward 0.00115 for confirmation. Another key support sits at 0.000988 sats. Despite the current cooling, the structure may still offer solid opportunities for new entrants. If these levels hold and macro conditions improve, SOL could be setting the stage for a sustainable rally, ultimately leading to new all-time highs. Weekly Chart Analysis – Holding the Line Near Key Support Solana is currently trading at $148.33 on the weekly timeframe, showing a 3% decline over the past seven days. The price has dropped roughly 20% from its May high of around $185 and is now testing the critical $140–$150 support zone. This level has repeatedly acted as a pivot point in the past and could define SOL’s short-term trajectory. The chart shows that Solana has been unable to reclaim the 50-week moving average (currently near $170), which now acts as key resistance. A decisive weekly close above this level would open the door for a bullish continuation toward $185 and possibly $200. However, failure to hold above the 100-week moving average around $132 could lead to further downside pressure, with $123 and $116 as the next demand zones to watch—levels identified by analyst Efloud in his mid-zone scenario. Volume has declined steadily over the past three weeks, signaling reduced participation, but also suggesting that aggressive selling is fading. If bulls manage to reclaim $160 with conviction, the structure remains favorable. For now, SOL remains in a consolidation phase, awaiting either a breakout or further correction as broader crypto market conditions unfold. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Week in review: Central Bank Rate decisions and ongoing Israel-Iran conflict Geopolitical tensions remain high as Iran continues launching ballistic missiles toward Israel, prompting retaliatory strikes from Israel on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. While headlines are still arriving by the minute, the market’s sensitivity has declined somewhat this week, with the conflict increasingly priced in. Equity indices corrected earlier but rebounded midweek—now selling off again as traders close positions ahead of the weekend, pricing in renewed geopolitical risk. What has stirred markets more recently is the possibility of U.S. intervention in the conflict. President Trump has indicated a decision may come within the next two weeks, adding a layer of uncertainty. For position traders, it’s worth noting the elevated risk of price gaps when markets reopen on Sunday evening. U.S. crude oil is trading higher on the week but has pulled back after a failed breakout attempt near key resistance, closing the week around $75. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Volatility has surged across commodities this week, driven by central bank policy shifts and renewed supply concerns—particularly in wheat markets. Commodities are essential raw materials used by both consumers and industries. Their prices are influenced by global economic forecasts, supply-demand imbalances, seasonal factors, and both anticipated and unexpected disruptions to production or logistics. To track broad market trends, traders often refer to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Wheat, one of the first ever traded commodity (1877), with contracts listed on futures exchanges such as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). While institutions primarily use futures, retail traders can also gain exposure via CFDs. The wheat market has experienced sharp price swings over the past five years, notably triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating drought risks tied to climate change. These events have raised long-term concerns over global food security. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Crypto analyst Colin has highlighted the Bitcoin price’s deviation from the Global M2 money supply, raising concerns that the bull run may be over. The analyst quickly addressed concerns, noting how such deviations usually happen at some point but don’t invalidate the macro trend. Analyst Highlights Bitcoin Price’s Deviation From Global M2 Money Supply In an X post, Colin revealed that the Bitcoin price has deviated from the global M2 money supply. He noted that this deviation was short-term in an otherwise broad correlation. The analyst added that this current deviation is similar to the position that BTC was in February 2025. Colin remarked that this development doesn’t mean the M2 is broken, just as it wasn’t broken back in February. Instead, he claimed that it just means that market participants haven’t zoomed out enough and are allowing for the non-correlated periods. The analyst added that non-correlation between the Bitcoin price and global M2 money supply happens 20% of the time. He then alluded to the regular chart, which shows the strong correlation between the Bitcoin price and the global M2 money supply. Colin explained that the M2 is “directionally predictive” for BTC and that it is not 1:1 price-related. The analyst further remarked that the M2 does not predict a specific BTC price. Instead, the global M2 money supply only predicts the market direction, with about 80% accuracy. Colin added that the Bitcoin price has its y-axis while the M2 is on a different y-axis. He also opined that the M2 may decouple from BTC near the cycle top. Although the analyst didn’t provide a timeline for when the cycle top will be, his analysis indicates that the cycle top is not yet in and the bull run isn’t over. Money Supply Shows No Need To Worry About BTC Price In an X post, market expert Raoul Pal suggested that the Bitcoin price’s correlation with the money supply shows that there is no need to worry about the current price action. He remarked that if 89% of BTC’s price action is explained by global liquidity, then by definition, almost all “news” and “narrative” is noise. This suggests that the current geopolitical risks, heightened by the Israel-Iran conflict, are unlikely to impact the Bitcoin price as much as expected. Trading firm QCP Capital recently noted that the flagship crypto has yet to show full-blown panic, which shows how much the asset has matured. The firm remarked that BTC’s resilient price action appears underpinned by continued institutional accumulation, with companies like Strategy and Metaplanet buying the dip. The Bitcoin ETFs also continue to record positive flows. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $104,700, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Canadian explorer Maritime Resources (TSXV: MAE) said drilling at its Hammerdown project in Newfoundland and Labrador identified a new near-surface gold zone with “substantial” grades. The stock jumped. Hole HDGC-25-272 cut 13.9 metres grading 24.5 grams gold per tonne from 11 metres depth, including 8 metres at 42.2 grams from 17 metres, Maritime said Wednesday in a statement. Another hole, HDGC-25-276, cut 13.5 metres at 7.2 grams from 22.5 metres downhole. Located in the Baie Verte mining district, about 500 km west of the provincial capital St. John’s, the brownfield Hammerdown is due to start producing this year. With major permitting now complete, the company is focusing on site development and mine pre-stripping work this summer. The Pine Cove mill, which recently restarted operations using stockpiled feed, is being optimized now to accommodate ore from Hammerdown. The site operated first as an open-pit mine, then an underground operation, from 2000 to 2004, producing about 143,000 oz. gold. Maritime plans to mine Hammerdown as a high-grade open pit. Significant widths The new zone, which sits south of the historical underground mine workings, starts at surface and lies within the planned open-pit footprint, Maritime said. Results so far demonstrate high-grade gold mineralization across significant widths that remains open at depth, CEO Garett Macdonald said. “This presents an attractive opportunity for early development and cash flow by now having all permitting completed for the Hammerdown gold project and our Pine Cove mill now fully operational,” Macdonald said. “It also highlights the potential for additional mineral resources in the immediate area of the deposit.” The new zone builds on shallow a deposit outlined in January from drill results. Unlike the rest of the deposit, where the resource extends from east to west, mineralization in the new zone follows a north-south axis. Other highlights include hole HDGC-25-273, which cut 36 metres grading 1.7 grams gold from 25.7 metres depth, including 15.4 metres at 1.9 grams gold from 39.1 metres downhole. Hole HDGC-25-271, meanwhile, intersected 24 metres at 1.7 grams gold from 7 metres depth. Capital costs A 2022 feasibility study for Hammerdown outlined a mine life of five years producing an average of 50,000 oz. gold a year. Initial capital costs were estimated at $75 million, with a 1.7-year payback period at a gold price of $1,750 per ounce. Using a 5% discount rate, the feasibility study forecast an after-tax net present value of $102.8 million and an internal rate of return of 48%. All-in sustaining costs were pegged at $912 per ounce. Shares of Maritime jumped 4.6% to a three-year high of C$1.36 in Toronto Thursday. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$153 million ($111 million).

GlassPoint, a company specializing in solar thermal technology to reduce carbon emissions, and Searles Valley Minerals (SVM), a producer of soda ash, borates, and other industrial materials said they have partnered on a solar technology project in California that aims to boost US mineral competitiveness. The project, GlassPoint said, will provide superior unit economics to existing coal-based operations while paving the way forward for replacing two coal-fired power plants. Under the first phase of the arrangement, GlassPoint will install 750 MWth of solar thermal technologies to reduce carbon emissions by up to half a million metric tons of CO2 per year at SVM’s manufacturing facility in Trona, California. Sodium carbonate and boron are widely used critical minerals. Boron, the fifth-lightest element, in its many forms has a wider range of advanced applications than both rare earths and lithium. In the next decade, SVM’s plant will be the last US-based production facility for boron, ensuring supply of domestic production, the company said. SVM’s operations involve processing brine to produce boric acid, sodium carbonate, sodium sulfate, and other specialty products for a range of industries. Searles Lake, the company said, with brine 10 times saltier than seawater, is unique because it contains one of the richest deposits of multiple minerals including borax, potassium, sodium and lithium. “As coal prices continue to rise, GlassPoint’s solution will enable us to lower costs from day one while protecting American jobs,” Searles Valley Minerals CEO Dennis Cruise said in a news release. GlassPoint’s solar steam system will begin replacing steam currently generated via two coal and natural gas boilers used for both heat and electricity. The company’s Enclosed Trough technology will use reflective mirrors inside greenhouses to focus sunlight onto a pipe carrying liquid salt, capturing energy from the sun for use in boiler operations as well as onsite power. GlassPoint will also deploy its Unify storage system, which uses ternary liquid salts to store heat at night and enable a continuous base load of heat and power night and day. Last year, GlassPoint unveiled the next phase of mining decarbonization for Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden with the world’s largest solar thermal plant. “Industrial process heat is a $444B market and GlassPoint continues to win the confidence of large industrial providers around the world in a range of industries, from metals and mining to building materials and oil and gas,” GlassPoint CEO Rod MacGregor said.

Toncoin (TON) has been quietly building strength, defending the $2.80–$2.95 support zone with remarkable consistency. After weeks of consolidation, the recent break above a falling trendline has caught traders’ attention, hinting at a possible shift in momentum. As TON coils just above this key structure, the stage may be set for a breakout — one that could ignite fresh upside if bullish pressure continues to build. Buyers Defend Key Levels On The Chart In a recent post on X, Alts King pointed out that TON is showing notable strength as it continues to hold above the $2.80–$2.95 support zone. This range has acted as a reliable floor for several weeks, with buyers consistently stepping in to defend it. Furthermore, Alts King further observed that a falling trendline, which has long constrained TON’s price action, has now been broken. This technical breakout could mark the early stages of a trend reversal, opening the door for a more sustained bullish move. Looking forward, Alts King believes that if the support zone continues to hold firm, TON may be setting up for a potential rally toward the $6.87 level. To validate this bullish thesis, Alts King recommends watching for the formation of higher highs and higher lows on shorter timeframes. These structural patterns are key indicators of healthy upward movement and would confirm growing confidence among market participants as TON tries to shift out of its consolidation phase. Resistance Zones That May Test TON Momentum To $6.87 As TON begins to show signs of renewed strength, its path toward the $6.87 target isn’t without resistance. One of the first major hurdles lies around $3.04, a support level turned into resistance during the last sell-off. Price action near this range has already shown hesitation in the past, making it a critical level for bulls to reclaim convincingly. Above that, the $4.54 level could serve as the next challenge. This zone aligns with prior swing highs and consolidations seen on the daily chart, where TON was previously rejected before resuming downward movement. Breaking through this level would require strong volume and confirmation, especially as traders may look to take profits from lower entries near the $2.80 support base. Finally, before TON can reach the anticipated $6.87 resistance, it must clear the psychological barrier around $6.00, which also coincides with a rounded top structure observed during a prior rally. This level may attract selling pressure from short-term traders aiming to lock in gains. However, only with sustained bullish momentum and the formation of higher highs can TON overcome these layers of resistance and build a real case for a breakout beyond $6.87.

Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A/TECK.B) is said to be weighing up options to expand its production of germanium, a strategic metal used in chipmaking, a company representative told Reuters on Friday. According to Doug Brown, Teck’s VP of communications and government affairs, the miner is currently in funding talks with both the Canadian and US governments to improve its germanium production capabilities. Germanium is one of 50 minerals identified by the US Geological Survey that are critical to America’s economy and national security. The metal is used to make semiconductors and infrared technology, as well as fibre optic cables and solar cells. China currently controls around 60% of the global supply. Since last year, it has restricted exports of the mineral to the US amid growing trade tensions between the world’s two superpowers. Also included in Beijing’s export restrictions were gallium and antimony, which, like germanium, have uses in military technologies. Teck’s plan Vancouver-based Teck is currently North America’s biggest germanium producer, and the fourth largest globally. The company produces the critical mineral as a byproduct of its Red Dog zinc mining operations in Alaska. Most of the germanium is shipped to the US, via smelting and refining in British Columbia. Speaking to Reuters, Brown said Teck is now “exploring ways to add to the current processing line using existing technology as one of the options.” Teck’s B-class shares traded 0.5% lower on Friday at C$51.87 apiece, for a market capitalization of C$26 billion ($19 billion). The plan to expand its germanium production comes amid growing efforts for the US to diversify its supply of critical minerals used in the defense sector. In a speech in Washington last January, Canada’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson welcomed partnerships with Washington to invest in critical minerals such as germanium. A report released by the USGS in November 2024 estimated that China’s export ban on critical minerals would cost the US as much as $3.4 billion.

Ethereum is approaching a critical test as price action tightens, setting the stage for a decisive move above key demand. After weeks of volatile yet controlled trading, bulls are attempting to reclaim higher ground, but momentum remains limited. At the same time, bears have repeatedly failed to drive ETH below the $2,400 level, reinforcing it as a strong support zone for now. With global markets under pressure from geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, Ethereum’s next move could define the direction of the broader altcoin market. Top analyst M-log1 believes the ETH/BTC pair is the most important chart to monitor in the coming days. According to his view, a breakout—either to the upside or downside—will determine the fate of altcoins across the board. The setup has reached an inflection point after multiple tests of the lower support band, with bulls continuing to defend it against breakdown attempts. This consolidation phase, combined with suppressed volatility and rising macro tension, makes Ethereum’s current structure one of the most significant technical formations in crypto right now. All eyes are now on ETH/BTC as traders prepare for what could be a defining moment in the altcoin cycle. Ethereum Builds Pressure As Breakout Nears Ethereum continues to trade within a narrow range that began in early May, hovering between the $2,400 and $2,800 levels. This prolonged consolidation comes at a time of growing geopolitical instability, as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and macroeconomic uncertainty grips global markets. While many investors had anticipated an altseason by now, that rotation of capital into altcoins has yet to materialize. All eyes remain on Ethereum to serve as the catalyst for that next leg higher. M-log1 believes the ETH/BTC pair holds the most important signal in the coming days. “This is probably the most important chart you want to keep an eye on,” he stated, highlighting that whichever direction ETH/BTC breaks could determine the fate of the altcoin market. The chart has repeatedly tested the lower support range, with bulls successfully defending that level on at least eight occasions. According to M-log1, this persistent defense suggests that bears are losing momentum, and a breakout to the upside is more likely. “I am 80/20 in favor of the upside,” he said, citing the market’s inability to break lower as a sign of underlying strength. ETH Tests Weekly Moving Averages Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,550, maintaining its position above all major weekly moving averages—50, 100, and 200. This level marks a key technical pivot as price consolidates between $2,450 and $2,680 after a strong recovery from its April low near $1,500. Despite multiple attempts to break higher, ETH continues to face resistance just below the $2,700 mark, showing that sellers remain active near historical supply zones. Importantly, the recent weekly candles have held the 100-week and 200-week simple moving averages as support. This indicates structural strength, especially considering the broader macro uncertainty driven by Middle East tensions and tighter U.S. monetary policy. Volume remains steady, with no signs of panic selling, further supporting the idea that ETH is stabilizing. The current compression in price around key moving averages typically precedes a larger directional move. A confirmed weekly close above $2,700 could open the door to a rapid push toward the psychological $3,000 level. Conversely, losing the $2,400 support would likely trigger a short-term correction back toward the 50-week SMA near $2,289. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Euro Sun Mining (TSXV: ESM) has lined up a $200 million loan package, with backing from global commodities trader Trafigura, to help finance its Rovina Valley gold-copper project in Romania. The funding represents a major step toward developing Europe’s second-largest copper-gold deposit. The financing, arranged with a syndicate of international banks and supported by Trafigura, will provide capital for feasibility work, permitting and pre-development work at the project. Euro Sun expects to complete final loan agreements in the third quarter, with initial funds available before the end of the year. The project may cost $448 million to build, according to a 2022 feasibility study. The deal, which includes a binding offtake agreement for up to all of commercial production over a seven- to nine-year period, comes as Europe seeks to bolster domestic supplies of copper and other critical minerals amid growing concerns over global supply chain security. The project, which is contentious for environmentalists, is on the EU’s list of 47 strategic ventures announced this year. “Together with our strategic status granted and our financial position closer to being secured, we are on the cusp of being fully equipped to deliver this project for the people of Romania and Europe’s benefit,” Euro Sun CEO Grant Sboros said in a release. “The company is advancing with its environmental impact assessment submission and that will be followed with close engagement with Romanian officials.” Two stages Euro Sun said the loan will be provided in two stages. The first $50 million is expected once final loan documents are signed. The remaining $150 million would follow the completion of a definitive feasibility study and satisfaction of other conditions. The seven-year loan will carry interest tied to benchmark lending rates plus about 7% to 9%. The Rovina Valley project, located in west-central Romania’s Hunedoara County roughly 300 km northwest of Bucharest, the country’s capital, hosts three porphyry-style deposits — Colnic, Rovina and Ciresata. The proposed mine is expected to operate for 27 years, with average annual production during the first decade of 116,000 oz. of gold and 49 million lb. of copper. It has a measured and indicated resource of 406 million tonnes grading 0.54 gram gold per tonne and 0.16% copper, for 7 million oz. of contained gold and 1.4 billion lb. of contained copper. The 2021 feasibility study outlined a conventional open-pit operation at Colnic and Rovina, with on-site crushing, grinding and flotation circuits to produce a copper-gold concentrate for export. Mining licence Euro Sun acquired the project in 2016 and became the first company to secure a mining licence for a non-state-owned mineral deposit in Romania in 2018. Since then, it has advanced technical studies and permitting, although progress has been slowed by environmental approvals and community consultations. There’s been long-standing opposition to the project from some groups. Shares in Euro Sun have tripled this year to C$0.12 apiece in Toronto for a market capitalization of about C$50 million ($36 million). Trafigura’s support highlights the trader’s strategy of securing upstream sources of critical minerals. The Singapore-based company, among the world’s largest commodity traders, has previously helped finance and secure supply from copper, cobalt and nickel projects worldwide to meet rising demand for metals vital to the energy transition. “We are pleased to support Euro Sun in advancing the Rovina Valley project,” Ross Ridgway, head of copper at Trafigura said in the same release. “As global demand for copper continues to grow — driven by electrification and industrialisation — the need for secure, sustainable new sources of supply has rarely been more important.”

GBPJPY has been trading in a wide range since October 2024 after the pair breached the 208.00 level and retracted sharply on last July and August Carry Trades' unwinding. Market Players recently got some key data for their trading in both the GBP and the JPY. The Bank of England took their decision to hold their rates but with a more dovish stance than markets expected with 3 out of 9 who voted for a cut – The BoE is starting to show a few concerns about the UK GDP appearing progressively weaker, but with a still too-high inflation. close GBPJPY 4H Chart, June 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView GBPJPY 4H Chart, June 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView GBPJPY has been in a volatile uptrend within the range but has stalled 5 times in the Intermediate Resistance Zone where we are currently trading. The 4H RSI is currently showing signs of reversals but this still has to be confirmed by price action. Bears are looking to breach the 4H 50-period Moving Average at 195.53 before looking to retest the FOMC 194.00 Lows to confirm the top-range rejection. Bulls would look to maintain the ongoing upwards trendline to go retest January 2025 highs around the 198 level, right before the Main Daily Resistance Zone. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The XRP price is currently trading well below $3; however, a crypto expert believes that in less than two years, this popular altcoin could enter the double-digit territory, marking a historic moment in crypto. The analyst has forecasted a potential surge to $27, pointing to a re-emerging pattern from 2017. With over six months left before 2026 begins, the expert has outlined a clear roadmap of how XRP could reach this bullish target if it completely mirrors the historic fractal. XRP Price Prediction For 2026 A new technical analysis by X (formerly Twitter) market expert Egrag Crypto suggests that XRP has yet to see its biggest breakout. The trajectory of the analyst’s chart mirrors the same technical path that XRP followed before hitting its 2018 peak and current all-time high of $3.84. Egrag Crypto highlights that XRP is on the verge of an explosive rally that may extend into 2026, with current market behavior echoing the conditions and buildup that preceded its 2017 breakout. Notably, the analyst’s price chart shows that the XRP monthly candle structure went through six candles of consolidation before it launched into a parabolic rise in late 2017. Now, the cryptocurrency has consolidated for seven monthly candles, highlighted by the green triangle in the chart. If the eight completes, the analyst expects a dramatic “KABOOM phase” to follow—one that could propel XRP to price levels not seen before. The bullish projections point to a possible blow-off top somewhere between $22 and $27, aligning with the highest blue arc on the chart. Currently, XRP is trading at $2.15, meaning a surge to $27 would represent a whopping 1,156% in less than two years. With July 2025 highlighted as the potential trigger month, Egrag Crypto believes that the breakout could extend its momentum toward the end of 2025 and peak in 2026. The formation, known as the RGB Arcs, presents a visual roadmap of this projected bullish path—reinforcing the possibility that XRP is preparing to repeat history—only bigger. XRP To Reach $4 Before $27 Target In his analysis, Egrag Crypto’s chart spanned from 2013 through 2017, connecting XRP’s peaks to a series of colored parabolic curves. The red arcs in the chart represented the macro support line, while the green arc marked historical resistance levels—reached in 2018, and now projected for 2025-2026. Notably, the analyst predicts that XRP’s first breakout zone lies between $4 and $5. Once this target is hit, the cryptocurrency is expected to move into the upper green and blue arcs, positioning it for a stronger surge toward the forecasted $27 peak. Egrag Crypto has described this initial target as a measured move, where the final outcome is solely based on historical price patterns rather than pure speculation. He urges the broader XRP community to remain strong and patient until the cryptocurrency progresses toward these levels.

The British pound has gained ground for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3496, up 0.22% on the day. UK retail sales decline 2.7%UK retail sales took a tumble in May, falling 2.7% m/m. This followed an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in April and was much worse than the market estimate of -0.5%. This marked the steepest decline since December 2023 and was driven by a sharp drop in food store sales. Consumers are being squeezed by inflation and are pessimistic about economic conditions - Gfk consumer confidence for June rose slightly to -18 from -20. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Federal Reserve's Governor Chris Waller, known in Interest Rates trading to provoke volatility, appeared on an interview with CNBC saying that "The Fed is in position as early as July for cuts." Fed Funds Futures haven't changed too much in terms of pricing of a cut (from 14% to 15% of a cut) but with such comments, expect big moves on any US Data that shows a weaker Economy. For a reminder, the Federal Reserve has been in pause since 6 months after cutting by 50bps in December 2024 as the FED "adjusted the policy rate with the dual mandate moving in the right direction". Waller mentioned the waiting of an inflation shock that never happened, something that is for now pretty accurate with the past few data points. close Dollar Index 15m Chart, June 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dollar Index 15m Chart, June 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gemfields (LON: GEM) (JSE: GML) said on Friday that the commissioning of a second processing plant at its Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique has been postponed to September due to logistical setbacks. The coloured precious stones miner cited incomplete installation of the tailings belt conveyor and decanter centrifuge, along with delays in securing work permits, particularly for specialist electrical personnel. It also reported “security and operational issues” linked to a surge in illegal mining activity at the site. Despite the delays, Gemfields expects the first rubies from the new plant to be produced in August, nearly 22 months after the project was first announced. Gemfields also confirmed it has restarted mining at its 75%-owned Kagem emerald mine in Zambia. It has reopened two production points in the Chama pit, with a cautious ramp-up in operations set to begin in July, depending on market conditions. It also said it continues evaluating options for Fabergé, the luxury jewellery brand it bought more than a decade ago, as part of broader cost-cutting efforts. The company did not disclose further details. Gemfields shares rose nearly 4% after the update to 4.55 pence in mid-afternoon London trading. The stock remains down about 35% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of 2.14 billion South African rand ($119 million).