Why The Dogecoin Price Could Reverse To $0.5 As Momentum Reaches Historical Lows

[Ben Graham]

Dogecoin has spent the past several days trading around $0.19, holding relatively stable amid quiet volatility in the entire market. Dogecoin has spent the past few days trading within a tight range between $0.18 and $0.20, showing a slight increase in trading activity compared to last week. 

Although the price action has been mostly subdued, a new technical analysis suggests that a significant reversal could soon be underway, one that may send the Dogecoin price surging to at least $0.5 once momentum returns to the market.

Dogecoin In The Lower Band Of Its Long-Term Channel

Technical analysis of Dogecoin’s macro price chart shows the king of meme coins is now trading at a historical bullish momentum low. This analysis, which was posted on the social media platform X by crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL, looks at Dogecoin’s price action on the 3-month candlestick timeframe chart.

The analysis shows that Dogecoin is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel that goes as far back as when it was created. As it stands, Dogecoin is now trading around the lower boundary of this channel. The flash crash earlier in the month created a downward wick that bounced off a confluence of supports right on this trendline.

This long-term structure reveals a consistent pattern of Dogecoin bouncing back each time it reaches this lower band, with previous reversals leading to exponential rallies. The current setup mirrors the same early stages of recovery seen before the 2021 breakout that sent the Dogecoin price from below $0.1 to above $0.70.

EtherNasyonaL explained that Dogecoin’s momentum has now reached “historical lows,” with the Stochastic RSI confirming a bottoming phase similar to those seen before previous bull runs. Furthermore, the analyst described this period as a phase of “quiet, calm, yet determined recovery,” meaning that the market is gradually regaining strength beneath the surface.

Historical Bottom Means Price Bounce

The momentum oscillator displayed in EtherNasyonaL’s chart supports this outlook. The Stochastic RSI, which tracks the rate of change in momentum, is at its lowest level, even lower than before Dogecoin’s rally in 2021. If history repeats itself, Dogecoin could be entering the same type of accumulation phase that set the stage for its 2020/2021 rally.

This view is further supported by the positioning of the price within the ascending channel. With Dogecoin currently trading around the lower range, it effectively sets a technical foundation for another upward leg.

Should Dogecoin follow its established pattern, a rebound toward the midline of the channel would place its price at least at $0.5. A continued move upward would see Dogecoin break into new all-time highs above $0.9 and $1 in conservative projections.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1945, having increased by 1.9% in the past 24 hours.