Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Drop Below $100K Even as Global M2 Growth Turns Bullish

[Ben Graham]

Global macro signals are flashing both warning and opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC). On one hand, major bank Standard Chartered PLC has flagged the potential for Bitcoin to dip below $100,000 in the near term.

On the other hand, significant growth in global M2 money supply strengthens the backdrop for a longer-term upside.

Short-Term Correction Predicted as Trade & Liquidity Risks Mount

According to head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin could briefly fall under the $100,000 mark amid intensifying global risks, particularly the escalating U.S.–China trade tensions.

Although he deems the drop as temporary, Kendrick frames it as a “buying opportunity,” asserting this may be “the last time Bitcoin is EVER below” $100,000. He further points to shifts in capital flows, notably from gold into Bitcoin, as signs of rotation and deeper structural appeal.

Technical indicators such as the 50-week moving average are cited as meaningful support zones, adding credence to his view that the correction may be short-lived.

Bullish Macro Backdrop: M2 Growth & Institutional Flows Intact

Despite the caution in the short run, the macro landscape offers supportive themes. Analysts note that global M2 money supply growth accounts for a significant portion of Bitcoin’s historical price variance, highlighting the asset’s evolving role beyond speculative crypto.

As central banks continue to inject liquidity, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader money-supply trends reinforces its potential as a hedge or portfolio diversifier rather than purely a speculative vehicle.

Furthermore, institutional interest and on-chain activity remain elevated, underscoring that this pull-back could be a healthy mid-cycle reset rather than a structural reversal.

What This Means for Bitcoin (BTC) Investors

In practical terms, investors should brace for potential near-term downside around or below $100,000 while keeping an eye on key support levels and macro catalysts. Kend­rick maintains his bullish target of $200,000 by year-end and even $500,000 by 2028, suggesting that the current dip could represent a long-term entry point.

At the same time, the market remains exposed to trade-war developments, Fed policy surprises, and liquidity shocks, factors that could trigger more substantial movement. A dip below $100K may feel ominous, but for some strategists, it could be the last major shopping window before the next leg higher.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD on Tradingview