Gold price could reach $5,055 by Q4 2026, says JPMorgan

[Ben Graham]

Despite gold’s record-setting rally coming to a halt this week, analysts at JPMorgan remain bullish on the metal for the next year and beyond.

In a note released Thursday, the bank projected gold prices to reach $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. This forecast, it said, is based on assumptions that see investors and central banks buying around 566 tons of gold a quarter on average during 2026.

“Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, wrote.

The combination of a “Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging” supports gold’s upside, added Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy.

With respect to the debasement story, where investors move away from fiat currencies such as the dollar in favour of “harder” assets, JPMorgan confirmed that foreign holders of US assets have been “gradually redirecting small allocations” into bullion as part of their diversification strategy.

‘Healthy’ pullback

The analysts also shrugged off gold’s recent pullback, as they believe it is part of a “healthy consolidation” phase after an overextended run that saw prices hit successive records and rise for nine straight weeks. “The pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August,” said Kaneva.

“It’s normal if you’re paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast … It’s just a very clean story – you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers,” she added.

Over a longer horizon, the JPMorgan strategist gave a target of $6,000 an ounce by 2028, stating that gold should be viewed on a multi-year horizon. This mirrors the bank’s earlier prediction that gold will reach that price level by the end of US President Donald Trump’s current term.

JPMorgan says gold could hit $6,000 when Trump’s term ends

Since reaching an all-time high of $4,380 per ounce earlier this week, gold has been on the decline, including its worst single-day drop in 12 years. Still, the metal is trading above the $4,100 level and is up 58% on the year.

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