China played key role in gold’s rally: Apollo

[Ben Graham]

China has emerged as a key catalyst behind gold’s record-setting rally this year, according to Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

In a daily newsletter published last week, Sløk highlighted three major trends in China that are driving gold prices higher: central bank buying, arbitrage trading, and increased speculative and safe-haven demand.

These trends are confirmed by data, such as the surge in Chinese gold stock levels (see graph below) and consumer demand for physical gold and gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

Source: Apollo

The Apollo economist also predicted that at the current pace of buying, global central banks will soon hold more gold than US dollars as part of their strategy to reallocate reserve assets.

Sløk’s newsletter was published right after gold’s rise to a new record high of $4,381/oz. early last week. While the metal has experienced a sharp pullback since, it is still trading 50% higher on the year, making it one of the best-performing assets of 2025.

Analysts bullish

Most major banks and analysts expect prices to go even higher following what they believe to be a period of “healthy consolidation.”

JPMorgan, for example, recently set a target of $5,055 by the end of Q4 2026, while CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian, in an interview with Reuters, said a surge to $4,500/oz. is possible in the coming weeks or months.

Earlier, veteran analyst Ed Yardeni also predicted a price of $5,000/oz. for the coming year, then rising to as high as $10,000 by 2028 should current trends persist.