Gold price to test $5,000 in 2026, consultancy says

Ben Graham · Outubro 28

Despite the recent slump in prices, analysts remain bullish on gold heading into next year, with many forecasting the yellow metal to reach the pivotal $5,000/oz. level.

Metals Focus, a UK-based precious metals consultancy, was among those making such a prediction. In its annual report, the firm wrote that it expects gold to challenge the $5,000 level in 2026. For the entire year, prices could average $4,560/oz., representing a 33% upside over 2025 levels, it added.

The biggest factor driving gold higher, according to Metals Focus, is the ongoing US trade policy uncertainty, which produced macroeconomic risks that drove up demand for safe havens. Gold, which tends to have appeal during times of economic uncertainty, will be supported by geopolitical tensions and continued official sector buying, even if below record levels, it said.

Other factors highlighted by its report are a weakening US dollar and declining real interest rates, both of which are conducive to gold prices.

Metals Focus’ 2026 forecast mirrors the gold price target given recently by major banks such as HSBC. Delegates at this week’s London Bullion Market Association annual gathering also provided an average price forecast of nearly $5,000/oz. over the next 12 months.

Other metals

In its report, Metals Focus also gave its price forecast for other precious metals.

Silver, which it says will benefit from the same drivers as gold, could break above the $60/oz. level in mid-to-late 2026, averaging $57 for the year. The firm also pointed to physical tightness in the London market and resilient bar and coin buying, particularly in India, providing additional support for silver prices.

For platinum and palladium, Metals Focus sees their prices averaging 34% and 20% higher at $1,670/oz. and $1,340/oz. respectively in 2026, amid a persistent market deficit. Both metals have seen substantial gains so far this year, rising between 70% and 80%.

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