Bitcoin (BTC) November Rally At Risk? Analysts Say This Week’s Close Holds The Key

[Ben Graham]

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate cut, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, losing its local range low for the first time in a week. Some analysts have warned that this week’s close is crucial for the flagship crypto’s short-term performance.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Crucial Weekly Close

On Thursday, Bitcoin dropped below the recently reclaimed $110,000 area, hitting a one-week low of $106,700. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been trading within the $108,000-$120,000 price range since July, but has failed to reclaim the range highs after the early October correction.

Amid this performance, Ted Pillows suggested that the market volatility was expected, as BTC has shown a similar price action since the start of Q3. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has dropped 6%-8% after the last three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, but it has also made a new all-time high (ATH) before the next one.

According to the chart, BTC’s price reached its local bottom 5-9 days after the meeting, quickly recovering from the drop and rallying to new highs in the coming weeks. As price retests the $106,000 area, Ted predicted that a repeat of the same playbook could happen.

However, he warned that Bitcoin must reclaim the $113,500 in the coming days to prevent a larger pullback. “A weekly close below that level will increase the likelihood of a bigger correction,” the analyst explained.

Similarly, Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin must close the week above the $114,500 to turn this level back into support. He noted that after the recent performance, a volatile retest of this level would be “perfectly fine” as long price closes above this crucial level at the end of the week.

Confirming the Range Low of ~$114k as support would confirm re-entry into the Range, kickstart consolidation within the Range again, and enable a move across it towards the Range High of ~$119000 (red) in an effort to breakout from it and challenge $120k+ once again.

Is BTC’s End-Of-Year Rally Still On?

Michaël van de Poppe affirmed that $112,000 is the next key area to break before a new ATH, as it has been a crucial resistance level in the daily timeframe for the past few weeks. Per the post, a breakout from this area could set the base for a retest of the $119,000-$120,000 zone.

On the contrary, a rejection from this level could send the price toward the $103,000 mark or lower, he warned. “I do think we’ll see a new ATH in November,” the market watcher added.”

Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that BTC is “just playing ping pong” between its key levels and will continue to move within its range until one of the boundaries is successfully broken.

The trader added that November is one of Bitcoin’s best months based on historical performance, which could suggest that a price rally could be near. Notably, 8 out of 12 Novembers have closed in green, with a median return of 10.82%, according to CoinGlass data.

Moreover, he noted that the last two months of the year are when the three previous bull runs topped and the past two bear markets bottomed. “Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year,” he concluded.