USD/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. Japanese Yen Maintains Negative Dynamics

[Ben Graham]

As the new week begins, the Japanese yen continues its negative trajectory, remaining under pressure from last week.

Last Thursday, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged despite objections from two board members—Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata—who advocated for a hike to 0.75%. In the subsequent press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that there are no preliminary plans for the timing of the next interest rate hike.

Additionally, Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi supports an approach to stimulate the economy, advocating for substantial budget allocations to counter inflation and boost economic growth. This reinforces expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay any interest rate hike, which will continue to weigh on the Japanese yen.

Meanwhile, traders have reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December, following hawkish statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Wednesday. This helps the US dollar maintain a position near a three-month high and further stimulates the rise in the USD/JPY pair.

US President Donald Trump has once again urged Republican senators to eliminate the filibuster rule in the Senate, as Monday marks the 33rd day of the government shutdown due to a lack of agreement and a deadlock in Congress. However, this has little impact on the overall bullish dynamics associated with the US dollar or the currency pair.

From a geopolitical perspective, the Japanese yen is also under pressure as a safe-haven currency, especially since Trump stated on Sunday that he is not considering an agreement that would allow Ukraine to obtain long-range "Tomahawk" missiles for use against Russia. Alongside optimism about a reduction in trade tensions between the US and China, this undermines the yen's role as a safe-haven currency and contributes to the rise of the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, the breakout of the zone between 153.25 and 153.30 last week, along with the subsequent move above the round level of 154.00 and the positive oscillators on the daily chart, became key factors in the USD/JPY pair's rally. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, suggesting consolidation.

On the other hand, any corrective pullback below the round level of 154.00 is expected to find good support at the Friday low around 153.65. A breach of this level would see the next support at the zone of 153.30–153.25, which previously acted as resistance. Below this, the round level of 153.00 comes into play, and if breached, the pair could decline toward the area of 152.15, on its way to the round level of 152.00.

However, for now, the pair's path of least resistance is upward, with some consolidation expected.

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