Bitcoin Eyes ‘Moment Of Truth’ As Price Retests $100,000 Support – Is The Rally Over?

[Ben Graham]

After failing to close the week above a crucial level, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to hold $100,000 as support, leading some analysts to suggest that this is the make-or-break moment for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Plunges To Physiological Barrier

On Tuesday, Bitcoin saw a 9% drop from its weekly opening, dropping to the $100,000 area for the first time in months. The flagship crypto has been trading above $105,000 since late June, hovering between $108,000-$120,000 over the past four months.

During the early October correction, BTC’s price briefly deviated below these crucial levels, hitting a three-month low of $102,000 before recovering. Since then, the cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim the mid-zone of its local range, falling to the $106,000-$108,000 area multiple times in the daily timeframe.

As the price retested the $100,000 level, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that Bitcoin has now broken below its 10th of October low, which was “the last major level before the $98K low from the Middle Eastern war fud back in June.”

Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has two massive liquidity clusters on the longer timeframes. Per the chart, the first cluster sits around the $90,000 level, which also coincides with an open CME Gap from Q2.

Meanwhile, the second cluster sits around the all-time high area at $126,000. “Given that the market is looking weak now, a dump to fill the CME gap before reversal could happen,” the market watcher warned.

However, Ali Martinez suggested that a 5%-11% rebound from the current area is possible. The chart shows that Bitcoin has been trading between $101,300-$124,000 price range since May, bouncing from the lower boundary each time it was retested. If BTC holds this area, it could surge to at least $106,500 or $112,000, the analyst asserted.

BTC Retests 50-Week EMA

Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC had reached the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The analyst explained that after closing below the 21-week EMA, Bitcoin was deviating below its range lows for the fifth consecutive week.

The 21-week EMA has served as crucial support during pullbacks since late Q2. However, it was lost amid the recent market volatility. Last week, multiple analysts warned that closing above this level was crucial to turn it back into support and prevent a larger pullback.

Per the Tuesday post, the 50-week EMA, sitting around the $100,000 level, “would probably only get tagged on confirmed breakdown from $108k,” meaning that the flagship crypto will need to close the week above this level to maintain its current price range.

Similarly, Crypto Bullet pointed out that the 50-week MA retest was “the moment of truth” for BTC. Notably, the cryptocurrency has retested this indicator three times this cycle, marking the bottom of each corrective phase and the start of a new rally to a new all-time high (ATH).

The market watcher warned that losing this level would mean “it’s lights out” for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, a rebound from this area could set the stage for a price recovery and a potential bullish rally in late Q4.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $100,356, a 6% decline in the daily timeframe.