XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Gold is attempting to extend a modest intraday rebound but shows little bullish conviction, remaining below the key psychological level of $4,000. The shift in global risk sentiment is helping this safe-haven precious metal attract buyers on declines.

In addition, concerns about economic risks stemming from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainty are drawing investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.

Last week's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reduced expectations for another interest rate cut in December and pushed the U.S. dollar to new highs — levels last seen in early August. Moreover, Powell emphasized that no decision has yet been made on further rate cuts at the December meeting, and any move will depend on upcoming economic data.

Traders reacted quickly, and this continues to support demand for the dollar. At the same time, however, economic risks associated with a potential prolonged government shutdown in the United States may limit further dollar strength.

The shutdown of federal agencies as of Tuesday has become the longest in U.S. history, as Congress remains deadlocked. Democrats refused to approve the Republican proposal to resume government funding. Republican Senator John Kennedy stated that without Democratic support, there is little chance of a swift resolution to the shutdown. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Whip John Thune expressed optimism that the government could reopen later this week.

Nevertheless, investors are concerned that an extended shutdown could negatively impact the economy and limit dollar growth. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty also continues to lend some support to gold as a safe-haven asset — suggesting caution before betting on further losses.

From a technical perspective, the drop below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent decline have opened the door to further downside for gold.

However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart indicate potential for some dip buying. A break below the $3,930 level would, however, likely lead to continued weakness toward the round level of $3,900.

On the other hand, a move back above the $4,000 level could face strong resistance near $4,015, where the 14-day EMA lies. Beyond that, the next supply zone is seen between $4,045–4,050. If this area is cleared, it could trigger short-covering rallies, allowing the price to rise toward the $4,100 round level, with some interim resistance expected around $4,075.

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