Arthur Hayes Claims Bull Market Still In Play: Monetary Policy Locks In Extended BTC Price Growth

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin price slipped below $104,000 on Tuesday, but Wednesday has seen a defense above $103,500. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes says it’s too early to call the end of the market’s momentum.

The Maelstrom chief investment officer noted in a Tuesday post that the Bitcoin price has fallen 27% over the past month. Even so, he believes the Federal Reserve could still pave the way for another rally.

Hayes said the next chapter for Bitcoin may start when the Fed begins what he calls “stealth quantitative easing,” a quiet return of liquidity disguised as cautious policy.

For now, he said, markets are feeling the strain from a liquidity squeeze tied to the ongoing US government shutdown.

Hayes also admitted there’s no way to know when that shift will arrive. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said quantitative tightening will end by Dec. 1, though there’s no guarantee of another rate cut next month.

Why Are Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Selling?

The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of another rate cut at about 72%. Still, analysts say the lack of clarity is affecting risk appetite across markets.

That caution is showing up in the Bitcoin price. The asset has fallen about 10% in the past week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw nearly $1Bn leave the market during the same stretch, a sign of weak sentiment.

Hayes urged investors to safeguard capital and prepare for volatile trading until the shutdown ends. He has previously said Bitcoin could reach at least $200,000 before the end of the year.

CryptoQuant data show long-term holders sold more than 827,000 BTC over the past month, worth roughly $86Bn.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

That amount is close to 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply and marks the steepest monthly decline since July.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Does A Break Below The Oct. 10 Low Signal More Downside?

Bitcoin slipped toward the $101,000–$102,000 zone on Monday, testing a support level that has held since early October.

Analyst Ali Martinez said the area could act as a short-term floor. He noted that the price has touched a historical demand zone, which previously helped stabilize the market. 

Bitcoin $BTC could rebound here to at least $106,500 or $112,000. pic.twitter.com/BaWBJ7VCTx

— Ali (@ali_charts) November 4, 2025

His chart points to a possible bounce toward $106,500, and if momentum builds, the move could stretch to about $112,000. He also expects the market to move sideways for a bit before any clear recovery.

A second analyst offered a more cautious view. He said Bitcoin has already fallen below its Oct. 10 low, flagging a break in structure that could deepen pressure on the market.

He noted that this is the last major support before Bitcoin slips toward the $98,000 area a price last touched during the sell-off linked to June’s Middle East tensions. 

The chart shows repeated sweeps near current lows, hinting at fading strength and steady selling pressure.

$BTC Now broke below its 10th of October low.

This is the last major level before the $98K low from the middle eastern war fud back in June. pic.twitter.com/41Lzflq7db

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) November 4, 2025

Both charts show a quick drop from the $114,000–$116,000 zone in late October, followed by sharp liquidations. 

The market is now at a critical point. Buyers need to hold this range or risk a deeper slide.

If Bitcoin cannot move back above nearby resistance soon, price may drift toward the thin liquidity area near $98,000. That would support a darker outlook for the market.

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