USD/CHF. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Pair Aims for a Four-Month High

Ben Graham · Novembro 5

The USD/CHF pair has attracted buyers for the sixth consecutive day, reaching its highest level since August 12. This momentum has pushed the price above the key level of 0.8100 and is supported by ongoing U.S. dollar purchases.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has reached a more than three-month high due to the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powell refuted market expectations of another rate cut in December. These factors help alleviate concerns about the economic risks associated with the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, while continuing to support the dollar and, consequently, contributing to the rise of the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc continues to show weak momentum, as weaker inflation data has revived expectations for a soon-to-come rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to negative levels. This creates a significant divergence from the Federal Reserve's forecasts. Additionally, the positive sentiment in global markets, driven by an increasing appetite for risk, is weakening the franc, creating favorable conditions for buyers and increasing the likelihood of further gains in the USD/CHF pair in the near term.

From a technical perspective, the oscillators on the daily chart are positive, confirming a bullish outlook. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential correction for the pair. If the USD/CHF pair breaks through the 0.8125 resistance, it will aim for 0.8150. Support for the USD/CHF pair has been found at 0.8110, followed by the round number at 0.8100.

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