Bitcoin Recovery Lacks Conviction, Market Signals Another Pullback Risk

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin price is struggling below $105,000. BTC could continue to move down if it stays below the $104,200 resistance.

• Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $104,000 support.
• The price is trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $103,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might continue to move down if it fails to surpass the $105,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance

Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $105,000 support level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below $103,500 and $102,000 to enter a bearish zone.

The decline was such that the price even spiked below the $100,000 support. A low was formed at $98,900 and the price recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low.

Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $103,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. However, the bears remained active near $104,000.

Bitcoin is now trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls attempt another recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $103,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $104,000 level.

The next resistance could be $105,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low. A close above the $105,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $106,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $107,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $108,500 and $108,800.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $104,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $102,150 level. The first major support is near the $100,500 level.

The next support is now near the $100,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $98,800 support in the near term. The main support sits at $97,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $102,150, followed by $100,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $103,500 and $104,000.