Ethereum Price Falls 25% But On-Chain Data and Institutional Staking Signal Q4 Recovery Potential

[Ben Graham]

The Ethereum price dropped nearly 25% this quarter, slipping to lows around $3,099 before stabilizing around $3,300 amid broad market weakness and rising U.S.–China trade tensions.

Data from Lookonchain revealed that three new wallets withdrew 4,920 ETH (worth $16.25 million) from Tornado Cash, a move coinciding with a 13% weekly price drop.

Analysts linked the pattern to large-scale repositioning by whales, with some addresses previously associated with HEX founder Richard Heart, who reportedly transferred over 162,000 ETH ($619 million) into Tornado Cash earlier this year.

Despite the sell-off, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Extreme Fear” at 21/100, a sentiment level that historically aligns with market bottoms. Analysts at Santiment observed a sharp pivot in trader sentiment, noting that bullish commentary on ETH outnumbered bearish posts by nearly three to one.

Institutional Staking and ETF Inflows Offer a Glimmer of Strength

Institutional data paints a more resilient picture. SharpLink, a Nasdaq-listed firm, generated $100 million in annualized yield through Ethereum staking after accumulating 859,853 ETH valued at $2.9 billion.

The company’s success has fueled a new “productive ETH” narrative, positioning Ethereum as a yield-bearing treasury asset rather than a speculative one.

Market strategist Kyle Reidhead described SharpLink’s yield as “a $100 million plus compounding revenue stream that works in all market conditions,” projecting Ethereum’s staking advantage over Bitcoin’s static balance sheet model.

On-chain analysts expect similar strategies from firms like Bitmine, JPMorgan, and other institutional players following the SEC’s approval of ETH staking ETFs earlier this year.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded $12.5 million in inflows on November 6, ending a six-day outflow streak and lifting total assets under management to $21.75 billion, about 5.4% of Ethereum’s market value.

Technical Indicators Suggest a Potential Ethereum Price Rebound Toward $3,900–$5,000

From a technical standpoint, the Ethereum price is hovering around the $3,200–$3,350 support range, a zone many analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, call a “prime accumulation area.” Momentum indicators such as the RSI (46) and MACD (negative but flattening) suggest bearish exhaustion.

Looking ahead, traders are eyeing the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, set for December 3, 2025, which introduces PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) to improve data throughput and scalability.

If ETH reclaims the $3,900 resistance, analysts project a recovery path toward $5,000 by year-end, supported by a decline in exchange supply and renewed institutional demand.

As staking yields and ETF inflows strengthen Ethereum’s fundamentals, market participants increasingly see the current correction as a potential springboard for a Q4 rally rather than a prolonged downturn.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview