USD/JPY: Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

[Ben Graham]

Recent repeated failures to overcome resistance around 154.50, along with a break below the support level at 153.30–153.25 (previously resistance), confirm the likelihood of further downside movement in the USD/JPY pair.

However, positive oscillators on the daily chart indicate that any further decline is likely to find strong support near the round level of 153.00 or around 152.50. A drop toward 152.00, followed by a slight move below this level, could be viewed as a new trigger for the bears. Such a development would open the way for a continuation of the recent pullback from the October and November highs near 154.50, a level that was also observed in February 2025.

On the other hand, a recovery above the 153.25–153.30 resistance level is likely to encounter another obstacle near 153.65. A sustained move above this barrier would allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 154.00 round level, extending its rise toward a retest of the 154.45–154.50 supply level. This area will be key, as a decisive breakout above it would enable spot prices to reach the psychological 155.00 level, and potentially advance toward 155.60–155.65, with an eventual target at the 156.00 round level.

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