Why Did The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Crash On October 10 And Will It Happen Again?

[Ben Graham]

The Bitcoin price, which had been climbing steadily toward new all-time highs, suddenly plunged on October 10, dragging the Ethereum price and the rest of the market with it. According to the latest Binance Research monthly market insights, the crash wasn’t due to weak crypto fundamentals or a loss of investor interest, but to an abrupt flush-out of excessive risky positions following geopolitical shocks and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Collapsed

Binance Research reports that the October 10 crash occurred as traders sold more than $19 billion in high-risk positions, marking one of the most significant single-day sell-offs in recent crypto history. The drop began soon after US President Trump announced new tariffs on China, which raised trade tensions and sent risk markets into a tailspin.

Bitcoin’s intraday price swings spiked to levels rarely seen, with a Z-score of 3.08, meaning such extreme moves statistically occur only once every 1,000 days.  Binance Research notes that the sudden sell-off of high-risk positions pushed Bitcoin down around 4%, while Ethereum fell 8.6%, marking the market’s first negative October since 2018.

The macro environment intensified the sell-off. A US government shutdown and a Federal Reserve rate cut in early October, when the Fed trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points but signaled a possible pause for further cuts, had already shaken investor confidence. 

With economic data flow disrupted and rate policy uncertain, traders sought safety and closed risky positions. Binance notes that overall crypto market capitalization fell 6.1%, indicating a coordinated pullback from high-risk exposure.

Will History Repeat Itself Again?

Despite the sharp drop, the market recovered quickly. According to Binance Research, total borrowed and high-risk positions, which briefly fell below 5%, rebounded to 5.77% by October 31, marking a 10% recovery and suggesting that traders remain confident in taking risks.

Bitcoin’s market share rose to 59.4%, indicating that investors rotated toward safer options during the market turbulence. Meanwhile, Ethereum continued to attract institutional buyers, with treasury holdings reaching 5% of total ETH supply, demonstrating sustained confidence in its ability to generate returns.

Binance’s BVoL index, which tracks expected price swings in crypto options, peaked at 52, far below the year’s high of 88 in March, indicating that investors did not expect a prolonged crash in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.

The analysis highlights that the October 10 crash acted as a reset of risky positions rather than a price trend reversal. The rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices highlights the market’s resilience; however, the return of high-risk positions means another sharp correction could occur if new macroeconomic shocks arise, leaving prices vulnerable to sudden swings.