Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Gathers Pace as Fed Pivot Expectations Firm, $4250/oz Incoming?

[Ben Graham]

Gold prices saw a sharp rise at the start of the trading week. The precious metal is trading up around 2% on the day and holding near the 4100/oz handle.

Last week, new data (data from 3rd party sources) came out showing that the US economy lost jobs in October, particularly in government offices and retail stores. Adding to this bad news, a report on Friday showed that Americans felt much less confident about the economy in early November because families were worried about things getting worse financially.

Because of this weak data, financial markets now believe there is a 60% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. By January, the chances of a rate cut increase even higher, to about 80%.

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Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Market Dynamics and Correlation Analysis

The price of Gold (XAU/USD) jumped up even though the US Dollar was on the offensive at the start of the week.

Usually, when the US Dollar gets a little stronger, Gold's price goes down, but this time, Gold kept rising. This suggests that Gold's movement is currently being driven by specific issues inside the US, mainly changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and growing worries about the economy and not just the normal ups and downs of the dollar.

US Equities were also on the offensive at the same time as Gold, a trend that runs contrary to their traditional inverse correlation (where stocks fall and gold rises as a safe haven).

Everyone expects the Fed to cut rates, which is like injecting a lot of money into the system. This expected money boost helps two things at once: it makes the future earnings of companies (stocks) look more valuable, and it makes it cheaper to hold onto Gold.

Because of this new trend, Gold traders may be more inclined to now watch what major stock markets do, with influential stocks like Nvidia being very important for predicting where Gold will go next.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold XAU/USD is decisively bullish in the immediate term, supported by a critical technical break and strong fundamental drivers tied to the perceived Fed pivot.

The current risk/reward profile favors long positions, provided the pivotal $4,000–$4,027 support band holds.

There is also a triangle pattern which was broken last week Thursday. The breakout has gathered pace today and could see Gold reach a target of around the 4250/oz handle if the pattern plays out as it should.

In the near-term, acceptance above the 4100/oz handle remains crucial for bulls who are looking for higher prices.

Immediate support rests at 4062 (100-day MA) before the 4050 and 4000 handles come squarely into focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 10, 2025

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Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 74% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.

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