What to Pay Attention to on November 11? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, with the most significant ones coming from the UK. The unemployment rate, changes in the number of unemployment benefit claims, and wage changes will be published in Great Britain. Recall that the Bank of England expects further increases in unemployment to 5.1%, while official forecasts suggest a rise to 4.9% for the end of September. Thus, the British pound will struggle to garner market support today, but we continue to believe the market is largely overlooking the macroeconomic backdrop. In Germany and the Eurozone, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indexes will be published, which are notably secondary in importance.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is only one significant fundamental event scheduled for Tuesday— a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. It should be noted that in the past month, Lagarde has delivered an average of three speeches per week, and not long ago, the ECB held its penultimate meeting of the year. Therefore, all necessary information is already in the hands of traders. The ECB does not plan to change interest rates in the near term and is satisfied with the pace of economic growth and the level of inflation. Consequently, we do not expect any important announcements from Lagarde.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to move north, as sufficient buy signals have been generated in recent days. The euro bounced off the 1.1571-1.1584 range, but any decline may be brief. The British pound rebounded from the 1.3096-1.3107 range, so it may continue its rise toward 1.3203-1.3211 today.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com