GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The GBP/JPY pair has pulled back from its November high but remains above the 202.60 level. The recently released UK employment report has become a key argument in favor of a Bank of England rate cut next month. The unemployment rate for the three months ending in September reached 5%, the highest level since 2021. Signs of further labor market slowdown have strengthened the case for continued monetary easing, especially amid declining inflation.

At the same time, concerns over the UK's financial and fiscal position are curbing traders' enthusiasm for buying the pound, thereby limiting the growth of the GBP/JPY pair.

In contrast, the Japanese yen remains relatively weak amid uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next policy steps. The Summary of Opinions released after the Bank's October meeting on Monday revealed hesitancy among policymakers regarding the impact of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policies and potential changes in the economy and price levels.

Additionally, board members cited U.S. tariff increases and rising Japanese wages as key factors influencing the timing of the next interest rate hike. Junko Nakagawa of the Bank of Japan emphasized that the central bank would act cautiously when making new monetary policy decisions. This approach, combined with an overall positive market sentiment, weakens the yen's role as a safe-haven currency and provides modest support for the GBP/JPY pair.

At the same time, fears of possible government intervention to prevent further yen depreciation impose certain limitations on the pair's upward potential. Therefore, it seems more prudent to wait for confirmation of active buying before planning for further gains in the pair.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, confirming that the bulls are not yet ready to give up. The pair found support near 202.60 — if this level fails to hold and the price drops toward the psychological 202.00 level, the bulls will lose momentum. Resistance now lies at the 203.00 round level, with the next barrier seen near 203.30.

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