EUR/USD Analysis on November 11, 2025

[Ben Graham]

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has evolved — unfortunately, not in the best way. It is too early to talk about the cancellation of the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but since July 1, the wave pattern has become much more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument is currently forming corrective wave 4, which has taken on an unconventional shape. However, the latest five-wave corrective structure suggests that the current phase of the instrument's decline may be nearing completion.

The uptrend continues to develop, while the fundamental background remains generally unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The President's confrontation with the Federal Reserve also continues. Market expectations for dovish Fed policy remain high, especially for 2026. In the U.S., the government shutdown persists. The labor market is "cooling." I believe that the recent strengthening of the dollar is, to some extent, a paradox — but such paradoxes often occur in the markets.

In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its potential targets extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wave sequence appears complete, which is why I still expect the instrument to rise from its current levels.

The EUR/USD rate remained nearly flat throughout Tuesday. Once again, we saw low volatility and an almost total lack of trading interest in the market. However, this pattern has persisted for several months — the instrument has been moving almost horizontally, alternating between corrective wave formations. Thus, Tuesday's lack of movement fits perfectly into the market's autumn melancholy.

Even the news of a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown failed to influence market sentiment. Since there was no reaction on either Monday or Tuesday, and demand for the dollar did not increase, it is quite possible that sellers have exhausted their strength. I would remind readers that the current wave pattern suggests the formation of a new upward trend segment, as the latest corrective structure now looks complete.

However, during the first two days of the week, there were almost no other news releases aside from shutdown-related reports. If the shutdown does end this week, the market will soon receive all the missing U.S. economic data.

Recall that in September and October, no reports were released on employment or unemployment, September inflation was published with a long delay, and several other, slightly less important indicators were also missing. Therefore, the market may now be waiting for these reports — in other words, investors first want to assess the real state of the U.S. economy and the latest trends from September–October before making new decisions.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. In recent months, the market has taken a pause, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remain significant bearish factors for the U.S. dollar in the future. The targets for the current upward wave could extend up to the 1.25 level. At the moment, the market continues to form corrective wave 4, which is taking on a complex and extended form. Its latest internal structure — a-b-c-d-e — is nearing completion or already complete. Therefore, I once again consider buying opportunities with targets around the 1.19 level.

On the smaller time frame, the entire upward trend segment is clearly visible. The wave structure is non-standard, as the corrective waves vary in size — for example, major wave 2 is smaller than internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this also happens. I would remind traders that it is best to focus on clear, identifiable structures on charts, rather than trying to label every single wave. At this stage, the bullish structure remains undeniable.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the market's direction — always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com